That last sentence makes no sense whatsoever. "Klis believes that the Broncos bringing in a new goal-line runner will result in more TDs for the old goal-line runner!". What?
I drafted Moreno #1 overall in my rookie draft last year in spite of his average athleticism. In fact, I traded a hefty sum to move up from 1.02 to 1.01 to draft him (because I was not a Wells fan). Obviously average athleticism isn't a death knell, but it should at least be listed on the correct side of the "strengths/weaknesses" ledger. Moreno's athleticism is not a strength. It's not really a weakness, either, since it's at least NFL-caliber... but it's certainly not a strength.With that said... while average athleticism isn't the kiss of death, it does make a player's climb more difficult. It's a lot easier for a guy like Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or Jonathan Stewart to excel because they are double-plus athletes. If you look at the top 5 fantasy backs from year to year, most of them are double-plus athletes. They just have an in-built advantage because they're bigger, faster, and stronger than their peers. Moreno doesn't have that advantage, which limits his upside and makes his road more difficult. He had 250 carries last year and not one of them went for more than 20 yards, for instance.
I'm not bullish on the odds of Moreno ever becoming a top-6 RB. What's changed from last year (where I was trading up to get him) and this year is that all of the other stuff that Moreno was supposed to be double-plus good at to make up for his average athleticism wasn't in evidence. Moreno was supposed to be a fantastic receiver, but he averaged just 5 yards per target and had fewer receiving yards than Buckhalter. He was supposed to be a fantastic blocker who played all 3 downs, but Buckhalter took a huge portion of his pie. He was supposed to have great vision, but Buckhalter didn't just blow him away in yards per carry, he blew him away in success rate, too (CBuck led the league in success rate last year, while Moreno was 15th). In other words, Moreno has suffered by comparison. I think he'll produce adequate fantasy numbers this year if you're relying on him as an RB2, but I think he has very little upside beyond that and I think his value is going to continue trending downward in dynasty.
I hate the accusations that I'm a numbers junkie, or that I don't watch the games. I'm an SEC fan who lived deep in the heart of SEC territory during Moreno's college career, so I saw him play a *LOT* in college. I'm a Denver Broncos fan and a Knowshon Moreno owner, so I saw him play a *LOT* in the pros. I would wager that I have seen Moreno play a lot more than you have, to be perfectly honest. I agree that you have to watch the guys on the field. I *DO* watch the guys on the field. All of my opinions are formed by watching the guys on the field.The reason I use statistics is because there needs to be some objective common ground. We could start an argument where you say "Moreno is an elite athlete", and I say "no he's not"... but where does it go from there? Either it can devolve into "my eyes tell me he is! / well my eyes tell me he isn't!", which does no one any good... or we can find some objective common ground. And statistics make fantastic objective common ground. My eyes tell me Moreno is not a double-plus athlete. The fact that he ran a slow 40 (in some attempts an EXCEPTIONALLY slow 40), the fact that his broad jump and vertical are unimpressive, the fact that he never broke a single 20 yard run in 247 carries... all of this provides objective evidence that my eyes are more correct than your eyes.jude said:
I don't live and die by stats. As I always say, I don't use statistics to form my opinions, I use them to inform my opinions. I believe that there is absolutely no substitute for playing amateur scout and watching the games yourself... but at the end of the day, you need to be able to communicate any information that you've learned. Statistics aren't a lifestyle, they're a language. They are objective, constant, indisputable facts that I can use to illustrate that there's at least some merit to what I'm saying... and if I can't find any objective data showing that there's merit to what I'm saying, perhaps I need to re-evaluate what I'm saying.
The problem with "wait and see" is that everyone else is doing it, too. Highly drafted RBs get one "pass". If they have a mediocre season, they can use their pass and their value doesn't drop all that much, because everyone wants to give them one more year to see what they can do. If they have a second mediocre season, their value plummets through the floor. Look at where Darren McFadden was last year compared to this year. As a result, Moreno is now a risky asset. If he doesn't turn things around immediately, he's going to see possibly the greatest value drop of any player in the league between this year and next year... and I struggle to see how Moreno is going to turn it around this year in that Denver Broncos offense. The offense that is transitioning blocking schemes, replacing two offensive linemen, and that just got rid of every "weapon" they had in the passing game (all both of them). Sometimes waiting pays off, but I think you're usually better off trading players who have used up their "passes" for players who still have a full set of "passes".I will tell you honestly - I do not own Moreno in any league. I am not a Broncos fan.
And i do understand the side that thinks he is oly a marginal talent/atlete/runningback, whatever. However, i am also not throwing the guy in the pile of "bust based on one season marred with injuries, coming to camp late, adjusting to a new team, new offense, new coach, bad team, etc.....If he looks just as bad this year then I wil lprobably come around to the other side. Or he could be bad regardless because his team stinks and then I have to let go
