KUBIAK IDP Projections (1 Viewer)

[lawrence phillips]

I know there is a thread for the KUBIAK projections in the shark pool, but not really much talk about IDP. Footballguys.com is first and foremost the best place for fantasy football info, in my opinon, but I heard so much of the football outsiders KUBIAK projections, so I checked them out. I found some very weird projections here. They had 2 guys, Merriman and Robert Mathis getting double digit sacks (that's it). And they had Bobby McCray getting more sacks than Suggs, Osi, Wimbley, Freeney and Will Smith among others. Also, they had David Macklin in the top 10 in INTs. I know INTs are relatively difficult to predict, but Macklin will be a 4th corner if he even makes the team. And he was one of 3 redskins they had finishing in the top 10 of INTs.

Has anyone else used these before or seen them in the past? Thoughts?

 

[Jene Bramel]

I considered checking them out this year, but was pretty disgusted by their column discussing the experts IDP league and held off. I know the KUBIAK projections aren't necessarily meant for fantasy football, but I'll bet that a few of the comments in that column may have drawn the ire of the diehard IDP crowd.

Anyway, I greatly enjoy the book and the attempt to project player production. I think using a bunch of statistical metrics to project defensive production will never work, although I appreciate that the FO guys are constantly looking for ways to accurately include more variables in their formulas. And I would love to get my hands on all the game charting data they have. I'm seriously jealous of that data. But I find myself disagreeing with some of their conclusions more often that I'd like. They'll even disagree with their year end rankings based on their own defensive metrics frequently. Even moreso than on the offensive side of the ball, the sample size issues and importance of knowing what the defensive calls were limit the data set. I'd expect a lot of that to trickle into their KUBIAK defensive projections, too. They've been improving the data set each season, but I think the metrics will always be limited and open to multiple interpretations.

We had a big discussion on Donnie Edwards last year based on FO and other metrics that suggested he was a poor linebacker because of how many and where his tackles were made on the field. That's just one example. It's nice when the metrics match your perception of what's happening on-field. It's when you can't determine whether the metric that doesn't fit is because your eyes are deceiving you and the player is better than you may have thought or the data set/conclusion is limited for some reason that becomes troublesome. To me, if you have to qualify many of your metric results, it can't help but call into question the "correct" conclusions as well.

I can't defend the Macklin numbers, but the projection suggesting Bobby McCray could have a breakthrough season could be dead on. I've got him in the mid-30s right now, but will bump him considerably if he wins a starting job in camp. I think the best way to use those projections is to look for what you believe to be outliers (high and low) and consider why they're projected that way.

I'm hopeful that they'll continue to improve. I'm even more hopeful that they'll make their raw data available at some point. It's time consuming to sift through the book and glean things from the small amount of information they release, especially this time of year when camp is in full swing.

 

[lawrence phillips]

I considered checking them out this year, but was pretty disgusted by their column discussing the experts IDP league and held off. I know the KUBIAK projections aren't necessarily meant for fantasy football, but I'll bet that a few of the comments in that column may have drawn the ire of the diehard IDP crowd.Anyway, I greatly enjoy the book and the attempt to project player production. I think using a bunch of statistical metrics to project defensive production will never work, although I appreciate that the FO guys are constantly looking for ways to accurately include more variables in their formulas. And I would love to get my hands on all the game charting data they have. I'm seriously jealous of that data. But I find myself disagreeing with some of their conclusions more often that I'd like. They'll even disagree with their year end rankings based on their own defensive metrics frequently. Even moreso than on the offensive side of the ball, the sample size issues and importance of knowing what the defensive calls were limit the data set. I'd expect a lot of that to trickle into their KUBIAK defensive projections, too. They've been improving the data set each season, but I think the metrics will always be limited and open to multiple interpretations.We had a big discussion on Donnie Edwards last year based on FO and other metrics that suggested he was a poor linebacker because of how many and where his tackles were made on the field. That's just one example. It's nice when the metrics match your perception of what's happening on-field. It's when you can't determine whether the metric that doesn't fit is because your eyes are deceiving you and the player is better than you may have thought or the data set/conclusion is limited for some reason that becomes troublesome. To me, if you have to qualify many of your metric results, it can't help but call into question the "correct" conclusions as well.I can't defend the Macklin numbers, but the projection suggesting Bobby McCray could have a breakthrough season could be dead on. I've got him in the mid-30s right now, but will bump him considerably if he wins a starting job in camp. I think the best way to use those projections is to look for what you believe to be outliers (high and low) and consider why they're projected that way.I'm hopeful that they'll continue to improve. I'm even more hopeful that they'll make their raw data available at some point. It's time consuming to sift through the book and glean things from the small amount of information they release, especially this time of year when camp is in full swing.

What FO IDP column are you referring to? I haven't seen one. Also, its funny you bring up Donnie Edwards, the KUBIAK projections have him leading the league in solo stops.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I was referring to their column discussing the CBS Experts IDP Draft.

And "disgusted" was way too strong a word. Disappointed is the word I should have used. To wit:

Mike Tanier, FootballOutsiders

"I have been involved in an IDP league for 15 years. My summer schedule is flexible. Armed with our KUBIAK rankings and plenty of input from Aaron, I would draft the Football Outsiders team.

The first thing I noticed as I began preparing for the draft was that rosters and lineups for the 12-team league were huge. Each starting lineup requires a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, a flex player, two defensive linemen, three linebackers, three defensive backs, a kicker, and a special teams. The 18-player lineups seem unwieldy, but with a 29-man roster to chose from, owners would have plenty of options."

I read Mike's stuff religiously; he's one of the few that breaks down a football play in an easy-to-digest and accurate manner. So, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt with the "unwieldy" comment. But it certainly makes you wonder what kind of league he's played in for those 15 seasons. I quoted this section to point out that the FO drafters were using the KUBIAK projections to draft, which means they see them as applicable to fantasy football.

Aaron Schatz, FootballOutsiders

"This league is completely ridiculous, to be honest. 29 players per team? It seems like the kind of thing that would be fun with your buddies, particularly if you are used to playing in deep baseball leagues. (I play in AL and NL-only "Ultra" leagues, with a dozen teams and up to 40 players including reserves.) However, I’ve always thought that the point of these experts leagues is to be a public example to help fantasy football players get an idea of who they should be drafting, picking up on waivers, and so forth. I can’t imagine anybody out there actually plays in a league that looks anything like this. Who among you owns Channing Crowder or Jerome Harrison on your fantasy team? Nevertheless, we figured Football Outsiders readers would get a kick out of seeing the results and what Mike and I were thinking as we (mostly Mike) drafted. Plus, we’re not sure what is going on with the Boston-area auction league that features a number of FO writers and gets written about in Scramble every year. We usually don’t auction until a week before the season starts, so the results wouldn’t show up in Scramble in time to help anyone."

This was the first of many comments that rubbed me wrong from Schatz. Again, I'm a fan of Pro Football Prospectus, primarily because of the game charting data, but also because Aaron etal have no problem saying that the quest to improve their metric, rating and projection system is a never-ending struggle. Still, there's a huge disconnect here to me. This is an outlet that spends a significant amount of time manipulating data and using statistics to draw their conclusions. There's no question after reading the brief essays about DVOA and DPAR that those manipulations are highly specialized. Why, then, are you saying a deep league such as this is "completely ridiculous" and that you can't imagine that participating has any value to fantasy football players? While the FO business of statistical metrics wasn't built with fake footballers in mind, they certainly market their KUBIAK projections and slant half of the book toward fantasy football. You'd think there'd be a little more understanding of the landscape here.

Schatz

"In doing the IDP projections for the first time, I discovered that weakside linebackers generally get more tackles than strongside linebackers, but the difference is even more extreme in two different defenses: The Tampa-2, and the Gunther Cunningham system. Kansas City is sort of a cross between the two now, I guess, and we think the Chiefs are going to suck, so Edwards is going to have a zillion tackles. Don’t be shocked if he leads the league."

Comments like that in bold are what really have me concerned about their defensive projections and overall football knowledge in general -- at least that of Schatz. If you're going to be selling a projection system, and one that has a huge number of variables, you better understand the basic roles of the defense. I'm glad the system recognized the SLB/WLB dichotomy, but it doesn't inspire confidence that you'll be taking into account the more subtle variables that come into play when you apparently didn't realize such a big issue before you started. And I may be wrong about Edwards -- this draft made me reconsider my late twenties ranking -- but I'll still be surprised if Edwards finishes with more than 95 solos, which is what he'd need to finish in the top ten this year. And the Cato June picked they pimped elsewhere in their review really calls into question what they're pumping into their formula.

Tanier

"My late defensive line picks, Edwards and Tommy Kelly, weren’t my best work. It’s not easy picking defensive linemen three weeks before camp opens."

Again, very disappointing to me coming from an outlet that I'd expect to have a pretty good handle on what's happened during the offseason since they're marketing 2007 projections. I'm willing to give these guys a bit of a pass because they spent the bulk of the offseason compiling a huge database of game data, then researching and writing their book. But it makes you wonder if they spend more time reflecting on past data than considering future issues. No way would I say that FBG knows how every camp situation will break down, but I think we have a better handle than to chalk it up to -- camp hasn't opened yet.

-----------

I think the take home message here is that FO isn't ready to be a major player in the fantasy football business and they probably don't desire to do so. That isn't to say that those of us who play fantasy football can't find them useful. Per my usual mantra, understanding what's hype and what's not is a big part of successfully evaluating talent, then applying it to potential box score production. Some of the metrics, if interpreted correctly, will help you identify some important data. I really want the game charting data for that reason.Based on the comments in their review of the draft, I elected not to purchase their projections. I bought the book, which is a solid read as always. But I think they're behind the curve a bit in the application of defensive concepts if the above is any indication. They've got the salient raw data, though, and hopefully they'll find a way to interpret it without multiple qualifiers along the way.

 

[TheGreatest]

I was referring to their column discussing the CBS Experts IDP Draft.

And "disgusted" was way too strong a word. Disappointed is the word I should have used. To wit:

Mike Tanier, FootballOutsiders

"I have been involved in an IDP league for 15 years. My summer schedule is flexible. Armed with our KUBIAK rankings and plenty of input from Aaron, I would draft the Football Outsiders team.

The first thing I noticed as I began preparing for the draft was that rosters and lineups for the 12-team league were huge. Each starting lineup requires a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, a flex player, two defensive linemen, three linebackers, three defensive backs, a kicker, and a special teams. The 18-player lineups seem unwieldy, but with a 29-man roster to chose from, owners would have plenty of options."

I read Mike's stuff religiously; he's one of the few that breaks down a football play in an easy-to-digest and accurate manner. So, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt with the "unwieldy" comment. But it certainly makes you wonder what kind of league he's played in for those 15 seasons. I quoted this section to point out that the FO drafters were using the KUBIAK projections to draft, which means they see them as applicable to fantasy football.

Aaron Schatz, FootballOutsiders

"This league is completely ridiculous, to be honest. 29 players per team? It seems like the kind of thing that would be fun with your buddies, particularly if you are used to playing in deep baseball leagues. (I play in AL and NL-only "Ultra" leagues, with a dozen teams and up to 40 players including reserves.) However, I’ve always thought that the point of these experts leagues is to be a public example to help fantasy football players get an idea of who they should be drafting, picking up on waivers, and so forth. I can’t imagine anybody out there actually plays in a league that looks anything like this. Who among you owns Channing Crowder or Jerome Harrison on your fantasy team? Nevertheless, we figured Football Outsiders readers would get a kick out of seeing the results and what Mike and I were thinking as we (mostly Mike) drafted. Plus, we’re not sure what is going on with the Boston-area auction league that features a number of FO writers and gets written about in Scramble every year. We usually don’t auction until a week before the season starts, so the results wouldn’t show up in Scramble in time to help anyone."

This was the first of many comments that rubbed me wrong from Schatz. Again, I'm a fan of Pro Football Prospectus, primarily because of the game charting data, but also because Aaron etal have no problem saying that the quest to improve their metric, rating and projection system is a never-ending struggle. Still, there's a huge disconnect here to me. This is an outlet that spends a significant amount of time manipulating data and using statistics to draw their conclusions. There's no question after reading the brief essays about DVOA and DPAR that those manipulations are highly specialized. Why, then, are you saying a deep league such as this is "completely ridiculous" and that you can't imagine that participating has any value to fantasy football players? While the FO business of statistical metrics wasn't built with fake footballers in mind, they certainly market their KUBIAK projections and slant half of the book toward fantasy football. You'd think there'd be a little more understanding of the landscape here.

Schatz

"In doing the IDP projections for the first time, I discovered that weakside linebackers generally get more tackles than strongside linebackers, but the difference is even more extreme in two different defenses: The Tampa-2, and the Gunther Cunningham system. Kansas City is sort of a cross between the two now, I guess, and we think the Chiefs are going to suck, so Edwards is going to have a zillion tackles. Don’t be shocked if he leads the league."

Comments like that in bold are what really have me concerned about their defensive projections and overall football knowledge in general -- at least that of Schatz. If you're going to be selling a projection system, and one that has a huge number of variables, you better understand the basic roles of the defense. I'm glad the system recognized the SLB/WLB dichotomy, but it doesn't inspire confidence that you'll be taking into account the more subtle variables that come into play when you apparently didn't realize such a big issue before you started. And I may be wrong about Edwards -- this draft made me reconsider my late twenties ranking -- but I'll still be surprised if Edwards finishes with more than 95 solos, which is what he'd need to finish in the top ten this year. And the Cato June picked they pimped elsewhere in their review really calls into question what they're pumping into their formula.

Tanier

"My late defensive line picks, Edwards and Tommy Kelly, weren’t my best work. It’s not easy picking defensive linemen three weeks before camp opens."

Again, very disappointing to me coming from an outlet that I'd expect to have a pretty good handle on what's happened during the offseason since they're marketing 2007 projections. I'm willing to give these guys a bit of a pass because they spent the bulk of the offseason compiling a huge database of game data, then researching and writing their book. But it makes you wonder if they spend more time reflecting on past data than considering future issues. No way would I say that FBG knows how every camp situation will break down, but I think we have a better handle than to chalk it up to -- camp hasn't opened yet.

-----------

I think the take home message here is that FO isn't ready to be a major player in the fantasy football business and they probably don't desire to do so. That isn't to say that those of us who play fantasy football can't find them useful. Per my usual mantra, understanding what's hype and what's not is a big part of successfully evaluating talent, then applying it to potential box score production. Some of the metrics, if interpreted correctly, will help you identify some important data. I really want the game charting data for that reason.Based on the comments in their review of the draft, I elected not to purchase their projections. I bought the book, which is a solid read as always. But I think they're behind the curve a bit in the application of defensive concepts if the above is any indication. They've got the salient raw data, though, and hopefully they'll find a way to interpret it without multiple qualifiers along the way.

Their comments really do not inspire alot of confidence do they

 

[Keg]

I considered checking them out this year, but was pretty disgusted by their column discussing the experts IDP league and held off. I know the KUBIAK projections aren't necessarily meant for fantasy football, but I'll bet that a few of the comments in that column may have drawn the ire of the diehard IDP crowd.

you think?ck these out:

#

As for our next IDP pick, Tampa-2 weakside linebackers are swell, and we don’t get punished for when June misses a tackle.

I think that June was guaranteed a starting spot if he signed with Tampa, and the plan is for him to replace Derrick Brooks. I just don’t think it’s gonna happen this year. He was getting most of his reps on the strong side during OTA’s, and that’s where they’re trying to see if he can play before switching him back to will next year. That’ll probably hurt his tackle total a bit.

:: Unshakable Optimist — 7/19/2007 @ 5:57 pm

#

Mul Dawg here to drop some science. Yes, Unshakable Optimist, June is expected to play on the strong side this season.

:: Jason Mulgrew aka The Mul Dawg — 7/19/2007 @ 6:05 pm

#

My IDP league only starts 15 players but we have 20 teams with a 20 round draft.

:: chris p — 7/20/2007 @ 5:41 pm

#

Deepest fantasy league of all time? I think not. Trench Warfare has been around since 2001: 24 teams, 8 offensive starters and 11 IDPs. And it’s a dynasty league.

http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/2007/home/25954

:: Steve the Pict — 8/2/2007 @ 12:31 pm

You guys can’t be serious. I mean you are participating in an EXPERTS IDP DRAFT and you think 29 rounds is unheard of? I know you need to direct comments towards the lowest common denominator as far as FF goes but you both just made yourselves sound like idiots. I know of MANY leagues that are full blown IDP Leagues where the drafts are TYPICALLY 40-50+ Rounds and 12-16 teams. Then you go on and spew things about Cato June like you know what you are talking about when most people that play in IDP leagues know that he is playing the SAM this year. Oh wait sorry do you guys know what SAM stands for? It stands for the Strong Side Linebacker. You know the one that is historically the worst performing Linebacker position in fantasy football. On another side note to the guy that thinks June will play the WILL(weak side for the newbs) next yr I would be cautious with regards to that as it seems that Quincy Black will have the inside track to being Brooks replacement. While KC does play some Tampa 2 for the most part they play a right left designation with their Outside Linebackers and while I think Edwards is a very good player he will not outscore any of the 5 Linebackers taken in front of him in this draft(barring injury). Actually Antonio Pierce(10.11) will easily outscore Edwards and I don’t need a computer program to tell me that. Wow the gems just keep jumping out at me, June over Kirk Morrison(another guy that should be top 10-15 or better), you do realize that even most novice IDP people aren’t drafting June. Seriously, the next time you are invited to participate in an EXPERTS Draft that you don’t have any expertise in save yourselves the embarrassment and say THANKS BUT NO THANKS.

:: RU Serious — 8/3/2007 @ 5:20 pm

 

[Micon]

I know there is a thread for the KUBIAK projections in the shark pool, but not really much talk about IDP. Footballguys.com is first and foremost the best place for fantasy football info, in my opinon, but I heard so much of the football outsiders KUBIAK projections, so I checked them out. I found some very weird projections here. They had 2 guys, Merriman and Robert Mathis getting double digit sacks (that's it). And they had Bobby McCray getting more sacks than Suggs, Osi, Wimbley, Freeney and Will Smith among others. Also, they had David Macklin in the top 10 in INTs. I know INTs are relatively difficult to predict, but Macklin will be a 4th corner if he even makes the team. And he was one of 3 redskins they had finishing in the top 10 of INTs. Has anyone else used these before or seen them in the past? Thoughts?

Wow, so they really project only 2 players getting 10+ sacks? Thats ridiculous, in the last 5 years there has always been at least 15 players getting 10+ sacks each year (avg about 18 players). Norton and Bloom for FBg each have over 20 players projected for 10+ sacks this year. Projecting only 2 just shows lack of knowledge and intelligent thinking when making these projections.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I won't pile on, but considering how full of themselves they get at FO sometimes, I enjoyed seeing them exposed on this topic. It's really not a big deal (because it isn't their strength).