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Kyle Lohse- Cautionary tale of greed and bad agent advice (1 Viewer)

biggamer3

Footballguy
If you guys aren't familiar, he turned down the Cardinals qualifying offer of 13M for one year to test free agency. (with the advice of Agent Scott Boras) The new CBA requires that any team that signs Lohse before June 1st to give up their first round pick in the MLB draft to the Cardinals.

Lohse was coming off a career year but was 34, was going to cost teams a first rounder, the Cardinals have a history of getting great results from journeymen starters. Many reasons why he should have known he was taking a huge gamble by turning down the QO. Now he is without a team and we are very close to opening day.

His most likely scenario will be to sign with a team after June 1 at this point and he will be making far less than 13M this year if that is the case.

When he initially turned down the 13M, I was shocked that he turned it down since there were so many pitchers of his caliber on the market without the 1st round price tag attached such as Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez and Dempster.

 
All nine players who received the qualifying offers from their old teams last November turned them down. They've all signed new deals except Lohse.

 
All nine players who received the qualifying offers from their old teams last November turned them down. They've all signed new deals except Lohse.
Lohse was only one who any reasonable person thought would have real problems getting a long term deal on top of the loss of first rounder. Don't have the complete list but it was a foregone conclusion that Soriano and Swisher were going to get multi year offers since they were at the top of their positions in FA. Lohse had a great year but he was a journeyman throughout his career, it did not take much to foresee how his situation would pan out.
 
All nine players who received the qualifying offers from their old teams last November turned them down. They've all signed new deals except Lohse.
Lohse was only one who any reasonable person thought would have real problems getting a long term deal on top of the loss of first rounder. Don't have the complete list but it was a foregone conclusion that Soriano and Swisher were going to get multi year offers since they were at the top of their positions in FA. Lohse had a great year but he was a journeyman throughout his career, it did not take much to foresee how his situation would pan out.
Kuroda was similar to Lohse. He ended up taking a one year deal at $15M from his old team. The Cardinals have the upper hand because of their wealth of young starting pitcher prospects.
 
All nine players who received the qualifying offers from their old teams last November turned them down. They've all signed new deals except Lohse.
Lohse was only one who any reasonable person thought would have real problems getting a long term deal on top of the loss of first rounder. Don't have the complete list but it was a foregone conclusion that Soriano and Swisher were going to get multi year offers since they were at the top of their positions in FA. Lohse had a great year but he was a journeyman throughout his career, it did not take much to foresee how his situation would pan out.
Kuroda was similar to Lohse. He ended up taking a one year deal at $15M from his old team. The Cardinals have the upper hand because of their wealth of young starting pitcher prospects.
being in NY, it was evident Kuroda was weighing either coming back to the Yanks or retiring. He was not going to test the market from all intents and purposes so the first rounder was not that relevant to him and he knew the Yanks badly wanted him back.Cards right away made it clear they were moving on from Lohse
 
All nine players who received the qualifying offers from their old teams last November turned them down. They've all signed new deals except Lohse.
Of the eight that signed how many had Boras for an agent?
Bourn and Soriano
Bourn was also a risky play but his age and his speed made him desirable to the Indians and Mets. To be honest I thought he was nuts to turn down the QO as well, but he got one idiot willing to pay him long term. Free Swinging outfielders who dont have much power are usually bad investments.
 
Lohse is 34 and is trying to position himself for his last big contract. His only options were to accept the $13M from St. Louis or take his chances on the open market. He's put up 6.1 fWAR over the past two seasons which (if repeated) would put his value well above the qualifying offer so he took the latter option (as did every other FA in his position).

It hasn't worked out well for him so far but calling it a cautionary tale of greed is an overstatement. Lohse has made $56M over his career and will pitch somewhere this season. St. Louis probably won't get their extra pick either so everybody loses in this scenario.

 
Lohse is 34 and is trying to position himself for his last big contract. His only options were to accept the $13M from St. Louis or take his chances on the open market. He's put up 6.1 fWAR over the past two seasons which (if repeated) would put his value well above the qualifying offer so he took the latter option (as did every other FA in his position). It hasn't worked out well for him so far but calling it a cautionary tale of greed is an overstatement. Lohse has made $56M over his career and will pitch somewhere this season. St. Louis probably won't get their extra pick either so everybody loses in this scenario.
Had no idea he has made that much money. Baseball is the sport if you want to get paid. I think old Kyle will be just fine.
 
If you guys aren't familiar, he turned down the Cardinals qualifying offer of 13M for one year to test free agency. (with the advice of Agent Scott Boras) The new CBA requires that any team that signs Lohse before June 1st to give up their first round pick in the MLB draft to the Cardinals.Lohse was coming off a career year but was 34, was going to cost teams a first rounder, the Cardinals have a history of getting great results from journeymen starters. Many reasons why he should have known he was taking a huge gamble by turning down the QO. Now he is without a team and we are very close to opening day.

His most likely scenario will be to sign with a team after June 1 at this point and he will be making far less than 13M this year if that is the case.

When he initially turned down the 13M, I was shocked that he turned it down since there were so many pitchers of his caliber on the market without the 1st round price tag attached such as Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez and Dempster.
ANY team is Wrong. First ten picks in the draft are protected which is why Cleveland only have to give up a 2nd round pick to sign Swisher .... and 3rd round pick to sign BournIn addtion it is not just the pick they lose but the associated $$$ for that draft slot - a first round pick and the $$ is a lot to give up especially when Lohse is a pitcher whose value is pretty much for NL teams. He would be a disaster in Arlington yet that was a consistent "rumor"

The rule change is new and clearly Boras didn't properly understand how teams would react to it.

Best bet for Lohse now is to keep throwing and wait until June - he can be signed AFTER the draft with no compensation ... but of course one third of the season will have been played.....

 
If you guys aren't familiar, he turned down the Cardinals qualifying offer of 13M for one year to test free agency. (with the advice of Agent Scott Boras) The new CBA requires that any team that signs Lohse before June 1st to give up their first round pick in the MLB draft to the Cardinals.Lohse was coming off a career year but was 34, was going to cost teams a first rounder, the Cardinals have a history of getting great results from journeymen starters. Many reasons why he should have known he was taking a huge gamble by turning down the QO. Now he is without a team and we are very close to opening day.

His most likely scenario will be to sign with a team after June 1 at this point and he will be making far less than 13M this year if that is the case.

When he initially turned down the 13M, I was shocked that he turned it down since there were so many pitchers of his caliber on the market without the 1st round price tag attached such as Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez and Dempster.
ANY team is Wrong. First ten picks in the draft are protected which is why Cleveland only have to give up a 2nd round pick to sign Swisher .... and 3rd round pick to sign BournIn addtion it is not just the pick they lose but the associated $$$ for that draft slot - a first round pick and the $$ is a lot to give up especially when Lohse is a pitcher whose value is pretty much for NL teams. He would be a disaster in Arlington yet that was a consistent "rumor"

The rule change is new and clearly Boras didn't properly understand how teams would react to it.

Best bet for Lohse now is to keep throwing and wait until June - he can be signed AFTER the draft with no compensation ... but of course one third of the season will have been played.....
I don't buy that Lohse would be destined to failure in the American League. His GB% is better than Derek Holland who had success for the Rangers in 2011. Lohse has AL experience in a hitter's park. His fantasy numbers would be worse than in the NL but he'd still be an above average #2/#3 starter in either league.It looks like he'll lose out on April-May salary, which is a miscalculation on his and Boras' side. But the multi-year deal he eventually signs will almost certainly have a higher aggregate value than the 1/$13M qualifying offer.

 
I think part of the problem is that no one knows what to make of Lohse. He finally put things together once he got to St. Louis, and even then there was a gap between his "breakout" 15-6 season of 2008 and his 2011 and 2012 seasons where his peripherals were venturing into elite company. Even with the recent success, his career ERA is 4.45 and career WHIP of 1.37.

He's not a big strikeout guy and has shown lack of control in the past. There has to be a lot of hesitance to sign a 34 year old who might be a product of the St. Louis special sauce and isn't exactly a joy to be around.

 
If you guys aren't familiar, he turned down the Cardinals qualifying offer of 13M for one year to test free agency. (with the advice of Agent Scott Boras) The new CBA requires that any team that signs Lohse before June 1st to give up their first round pick in the MLB draft to the Cardinals.Lohse was coming off a career year but was 34, was going to cost teams a first rounder, the Cardinals have a history of getting great results from journeymen starters. Many reasons why he should have known he was taking a huge gamble by turning down the QO. Now he is without a team and we are very close to opening day.

His most likely scenario will be to sign with a team after June 1 at this point and he will be making far less than 13M this year if that is the case.

When he initially turned down the 13M, I was shocked that he turned it down since there were so many pitchers of his caliber on the market without the 1st round price tag attached such as Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez and Dempster.
ANY team is Wrong. First ten picks in the draft are protected which is why Cleveland only have to give up a 2nd round pick to sign Swisher .... and 3rd round pick to sign BournIn addtion it is not just the pick they lose but the associated $$$ for that draft slot - a first round pick and the $$ is a lot to give up especially when Lohse is a pitcher whose value is pretty much for NL teams. He would be a disaster in Arlington yet that was a consistent "rumor"

The rule change is new and clearly Boras didn't properly understand how teams would react to it.

Best bet for Lohse now is to keep throwing and wait until June - he can be signed AFTER the draft with no compensation ... but of course one third of the season will have been played.....
Lohse will be signed by a team that is contending...but for what? Maybe 5 million for the remainder of the season?

 
Yep, when surveying the sports landscape, I always think its the players that are the greediest. On a related note, the owners are again pushing for an international draft despite the likely negative impact on both competitive balance and the overall talent pool.

 
Yep, when surveying the sports landscape, I always think its the players that are the greediest. On a related note, the owners are again pushing for an international draft despite the likely negative impact on both competitive balance and the overall talent pool.
Why are the millionaires (players) the greedy ones and not the billionaires (owners)? A great player going to get top-dollar for 10 years max. Owners going to reap the rewards for the rest of their life. We tune in to see the players not the owners. The owners are replaceable. M. Cabrera is not.
 
Yep, when surveying the sports landscape, I always think its the players that are the greediest. On a related note, the owners are again pushing for an international draft despite the likely negative impact on both competitive balance and the overall talent pool.
Why are the millionaires (players) the greedy ones and not the billionaires (owners)? A great player going to get top-dollar for 10 years max. Owners going to reap the rewards for the rest of their life. We tune in to see the players not the owners. The owners are replaceable. M. Cabrera is not.
I was being sarcastic.
 
Brewers will give up the #17 pick
My linkSpeculation around here is it will be something in the 2/$20MM range.

Not a huge fan of this with losing the pick and signing yet another aging Cardinal pitcher.

Edit - now speculation is 3/just over $30MM

 
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Brewers will give up the #17 pick
My linkSpeculation around here is it will be something in the 2/$20MM range.

Not a huge fan of this with losing the pick and signing yet another aging Cardinal pitcher.

Edit - now speculation is 3/just over $30MM
It strikes of a panic move since the Brewers pitching hasn't been very good in ST. But they knew what they had with Narveson, Peralta and Rogers all winter. Six weeks in the desert shouldn't have had that much impact.Even 3/$33M wouldn't be a terrible contract except for the draft pick and the slot money

 
Brewers will give up the #17 pick
My linkSpeculation around here is it will be something in the 2/$20MM range.

Not a huge fan of this with losing the pick and signing yet another aging Cardinal pitcher.

Edit - now speculation is 3/just over $30MM
It strikes of a panic move since the Brewers pitching hasn't been very good in ST. But they knew what they had with Narveson, Peralta and Rogers all winter. Six weeks in the desert shouldn't have had that much impact.Even 3/$33M wouldn't be a terrible contract except for the draft pick and the slot money
It is a possibility that they wanted Lohse all along, and waiting six weeks knocked it down from 4/48 to 3/33.
 
All nine players who received the qualifying offers from their old teams last November turned them down. They've all signed new deals except Lohse.
Lohse was only one who any reasonable person thought would have real problems getting a long term deal on top of the loss of first rounder. Don't have the complete list but it was a foregone conclusion that Soriano and Swisher were going to get multi year offers since they were at the top of their positions in FA.

Lohse had a great year but he was a journeyman throughout his career, it did not take much to foresee how his situation would pan out.
Agreed. Lohse was smart. He trusted Boras and did much better than what the Cards offered.

 
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As a Cardinal fan, I am happy he signed before the draft so we get the draft pick, but unhappy he signed in the division. I don't think the 3/33 Million that is reported is too big an overpay. He is better than league average and he stays healthy, so that's the downside for the Brewers. He could have another year like 2012 and then they did very well.

 
As a Cardinal fan, I am happy he signed before the draft so we get the draft pick, but unhappy he signed in the division. I don't think the 3/33 Million that is reported is too big an overpay. He is better than league average and he stays healthy, so that's the downside for the Brewers. He could have another year like 2012 and then they did very well.
Happy for the Cards, but feel bad for Lohse - his new home ballpark will not help him. Neither will his new defense.I really liked him as a Card, sad to see him go.
 
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As a Cardinal fan, I am happy he signed before the draft so we get the draft pick, but unhappy he signed in the division. I don't think the 3/33 Million that is reported is too big an overpay. He is better than league average and he stays healthy, so that's the downside for the Brewers. He could have another year like 2012 and then they did very well.
Happy for the Cards, but feel bad for Lohse - his new home ballpark will not help him. Neither will his new defense.I really liked him as a Card, sad to see him go.
If he cared about his stats he would've offered himself up to the Padres or Mariners for league minimum. He wanted to get paid which is totally his right, and now he's gonna make $33 million over the next three years. Last thing I feel is bad for him.
 
The $33 mil is spread over 5 years. Not sure ho thtworks but keeps Milwaukee in their budget
Reportedly $4M in 2013, $11M in 14 and 15 w/ $7Mmm deferred to 16-18 timeframe
Is this common for teams in small markets? I've never seen anything like it and am not sure how much I support someone being on the payroll who is no longer on the team.
Bobby Bonilla is still on the Mets payroll and will be for some time.
 

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