Lacy, Bell, and Forte owners - Beware. B Tate / Ellington owners, rej (1 Viewer)

[wilked]

Just ran a quick study.... Looked at all possessions in the Red Zone (arbitrary, granted). Using Joe's data looked at what teams do in the RZ, pass or run. I did this for all teams in the NFL.

On average, there are about 9-10 plays per team inside the red zone. Again, on average, teams will run the ball 48% of the time.

The three lowest run% in the league to date are:

Team RZ QB RZ RB %RBGB 44 23 34%CHI 42 23 35%PIT 43 24 36%No other team is below 40%

The only two teams above 60% are:

CLE 20 31 61%ARI 16 29 64%Those offenses believe in pounding it in

The rest of the league is between 40% - 56%, dataset below. It's an interesting counter to the argument that Bell will start to see TDs simply based on the amount of touches he has (not necessarily!). Forte has performed well in spite of only 3 TDs, don't necessarily assume his TD total will increase.

Do people think this is predictive?

Other interesting notes: Jax and Oak have WAY fewer RZ touches than other teams. I wouldn't go near a RB on either team if I had a choice. NYG, BAL, and IND have WAY more RZ touches than other teams. If that trend keeps up RBs on those teams will do well in terms of TDs (less so IND, which has only 40% RB RZ%)

Team	RZ QB	RZ RB	%RB	OpportunitiesGB	44	23	34%	67CHI	42	23	35%	65PIT	43	24	36%	67DEN	29	19	40%	48NYJ	35	23	40%	58IND	59	39	40%	98OAK	14	10	42%	24JAX	13	10	43%	23NO	34	27	44%	61TEN	25	20	44%	45TB	28	23	45%	51PHI	35	29	45%	64SF	35	29	45%	64BUF	33	28	46%	61CAR	25	23	48%	48SD	36	34	49%	70STL	22	21	49%	43MIA	34	34	50%	68NYG	39	39	50%	78BAL	41	41	50%	82DAL	25	26	51%	51DET	25	26	51%	51MIN	29	31	52%	60NE	29	31	52%	60KC	29	33	53%	62SEA	21	26	55%	47HOU	18	23	56%	41CIN	21	27	56%	48ATL	17	22	56%	39WAS	23	30	57%	53CLE	20	31	61%	51ARI	16	29	64%	45

 

[DLR]

Yay?

 

[wilked]

Yay?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Indy with 98 RZ opp's. Next closest teams: Bal has 82, NYG 78, SD has 70. [edited]

 

[MIMN]

Indy with 98 RZ opp's. Next closest team (SD) has 70.

Other than Baltimore and New York.

Questions:

Does the RZ pass/run mix change as a whole in the NFL as the season progresses and there tends to be more weather considerations?

In general, does a team's run/pass mix stay constant through the year or does it fluctuate wildly or does it consistently change (according to a pattern) one way or another?

Do these team RZ run/pass mixes reflect their overall run/pass mix? (Do they change just because they got in the RZ?)

 

[Jerry Curl]

Indy with 98 RZ opp's. Next closest team (SD) has 70.

Baltimore has 82 and NYG has 78.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Indy with 98 RZ opp's. Next closest team (SD) has 70.

Baltimore has 82 and NYG has 78.

Ha, ok, I did that wrong.

(Some sorting would help...)

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

is this straight pass/run % or are you looking at rb touches/targets?

for example, forte is a huge part of that passing game, so passing in the rz doesn't mean much, and we've seen bradshaw cash in on that, making him a better play than richardson.

it's been pretty well established that gb has been this way for years, which is why lacy was an avoid in the mid-first, and way overdrafted by many

 

[menobrown]

Only thing I'd add to this is I know Pittsburgs usage was similar was last season, very pass happy in red zone. But with that being said I'd still not knock Bell since he's so actively involved in the passing game. Same thing with Forte in Chicago.

Good info however and I found Arizona surprising considering they lack a good power back.

 

[wilked]

is this straight pass/run % or are you looking at rb touches/targets?

for example, forte is a huge part of that passing game, so passing in the rz doesn't mean much, and we've seen bradshaw cash in on that, making him a better play than richardson.

it's been pretty well established that gb has been this way for years, which is why lacy was an avoid in the mid-first, and way overdrafted by many

It appears to count a RB pass as RB%. Forte is not listed under WR. It would 'double count' the QB and RB, but it probably doesn't change the data too much

 

[wilked]

Only thing I'd add to this is I know Pittsburgs usage was similar was last season, very pass happy in red zone. But with that being said I'd still not knock Bell since he's so actively involved in the passing game. Same thing with Forte in Chicago.

Good info however and I found Arizona surprising considering they lack a good power back.

I am not saying to knock them, but refuting claims like this:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=677842&p=17355649

people seem to think touches are touches, but in Pit that is not the case. They disproportionately favor passing when they get close to the goal line

 

[wilked]

Indy with 98 RZ opp's. Next closest team (SD) has 70.

Other than Baltimore and New York.

Questions:

Does the RZ pass/run mix change as a whole in the NFL as the season progresses and there tends to be more weather considerations?

In general, does a team's run/pass mix stay constant through the year or does it fluctuate wildly or does it consistently change (according to a pattern) one way or another?

Do these team RZ run/pass mixes reflect their overall run/pass mix? (Do they change just because they got in the RZ?)

It would be an interesting study, fairly easy to back test. I am not going to do it, but if Joe and the gang are looking for ideas, here is one

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Other interesting notes: Jax and Oak have WAY fewer RZ touches than other teams. I wouldn't go near a RB on either team if I had a choice. NYG, BAL, and IND have WAY more RZ touches than other teams. If that trend keeps up RBs on those teams will do well in terms of TDs (less so IND, which has only 40% RB RZ%)

nice analysis, thanks for posting. will spawn some interesting conversation here. For the Raiders I think (or hope) this will change if last week was any indication. I expect DMAC/MJD/Reece to have much more opportunities going forward than they did in the first four weeks.

 

[wilked]

Other interesting notes: Jax and Oak have WAY fewer RZ touches than other teams. I wouldn't go near a RB on either team if I had a choice. NYG, BAL, and IND have WAY more RZ touches than other teams. If that trend keeps up RBs on those teams will do well in terms of TDs (less so IND, which has only 40% RB RZ%)

nice analysis, thanks for posting. will spawn some interesting conversation here. For the Raiders I think (or hope) this will change if last week was any indication. I expect DMAC/MJD/Reece to have much more opportunities going forward than they did in the first four weeks.

Through 4 games Oak had 18 RZ plays (4.5 per game). Last week they had 6 (3 pass 3 rush). As noted league average per game is more like 9. It may change, but last week's game doesn't give much of an indication of that

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

is this straight pass/run % or are you looking at rb touches/targets?

for example, forte is a huge part of that passing game, so passing in the rz doesn't mean much, and we've seen bradshaw cash in on that, making him a better play than richardson.

it's been pretty well established that gb has been this way for years, which is why lacy was an avoid in the mid-first, and way overdrafted by many

That's a great point. LBell could fall into that Forte category too, couldn't he?

Not Lacy though.

I think that whole damn matrix is interesting. Tate might be more of a buy than people realize.

 

[RexG]

Indy with 98 RZ opp's. Next closest team (SD) has 70.

This is an interesting stat.

Bradshaw's value is directly tied the team's red zone opportunities this year. Wondering if/when defensive coordinators will start keying on him as a receiver in their goal line packages.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Great thread. For fantasy purposes I wish the red zone stats started at the 5 or 10 instead - would be even more informative as far as TD opps.

Not surprised at all to see GB, CHI, PIT, DEN, and IND near the top - seems like they pass down by the goalline all the time. These QBs seem like good bets to get short passing TDs that other QBs might not get - as a Luck owner I know he definitely has all year.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Other interesting notes: Jax and Oak have WAY fewer RZ touches than other teams. I wouldn't go near a RB on either team if I had a choice. NYG, BAL, and IND have WAY more RZ touches than other teams. If that trend keeps up RBs on those teams will do well in terms of TDs (less so IND, which has only 40% RB RZ%)

nice analysis, thanks for posting. will spawn some interesting conversation here. For the Raiders I think (or hope) this will change if last week was any indication. I expect DMAC/MJD/Reece to have much more opportunities going forward than they did in the first four weeks.

Through 4 games Oak had 18 RZ plays (4.5 per game). Last week they had 6 (3 pass 3 rush). As noted league average per game is more like 9. It may change, but last week's game doesn't give much of an indication of that

4.5 to 6, at least it's trending up and against a highly rated defense. optimism!

 

[wilked]

Taken as a whole and giving this some thought...

I would probably look to:

BUY:

-Andre Williams (high RZ opportunities, team has balanced attack in the RZ, and can be had cheaply)

-Ellington (pount it in attack, clear starter, not a 'brand' name so can be had cheaper than others)

SELL:

-Forte, Bell (note, I am talking of selling high, getting big return. If you can get equal or better value I would prefer a RB with more TDs)

 

[TDorBust]

Do you have numbers on "targets" inside the 10? inside the 5?

To get a jumpstart I have compiled the distance of every offensive touchdown in the NFL from 2010 to 2014. This shows a pretty clear picture from my point of view. See the graph first:

*Just a quick study of all TDs scored from 2010 through 2014 (10/18/14)*

TD Type 0-4 5-9 10-19 29-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total

Passing 759 750 806 438 265 169 326 3513

Rushing 1031 315 225 83 65 37 79 1835

Total 1790 1065 1031 521 330 206 405 5348

As you can see it is 2:1 of TDs from 0-4 rushing vs 5-19 rushing. So getting touches as a RB when you are inside the red zone does not really matter. What really matters is getting touches inside the 5. As to compare against the red zone attempts above please see the next chart.

*All TDs scored from Week 1 to 10/18/14

TD Type 0-4 5-9 10-19 29-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total

Passing 70 81 63 35 17 11 30 307

Rushing 73 26 25 7 3 2 4 140

Total 143 107 88 42 20 13 34 447

Again you can see a large increase in the amount of rushing TDs inside the 5 vs farther out in the red zone. Now again this might just be because teams handoff less at the 5-20 but we need more information to fully understand that piece.

In the end I would have a hard time justifying trading or acquiring a RB because of touches in the red zone. Another piece of information I would want to know is when a team gets to the 4 for instance does the team run prior to throwing the eventual TD?

Example look at the 49ers vs Bears matchup when looking at Forte: (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201409140sfo.htm)

1TD - First play @17 - Pass to Marshall TD

2TD - Forte Pass 11 yards, Forte Rush 1 yard, Pass Marshall TD

3TD - After INT - @3 pass to Bennett TD

4TD - Forte Rush 5 yards @8, Pass Marshall TD

Draw your own conclusion but I see Forte being the goto player on 2 drives to start off the red zone visit. I am not saying it wouldn't be great to get more touches for Forte inside the 5 instead of those short passes but come later in the season who is to say Cutler doesn't change the play at the line for a HB delay up the middle for a TD instead of throwing it out to Marshall?

*The next piece of information we would need is how many plays were run at each yardage mark as well, that would tell us more accurately how likely a TD is going to occur from a touch at that point on the field. Does it take 3 Runs at the 3 yard line to get a TD vs 2 Passes at the 3 yard line to get a TD?

 

[Run It Up]

Forte owners:

Nothing to worry about, carry on.

Forte leads the ENTIRE league in receptions.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The Browns RBs ran it 48 times last night vs the Bengals.

 

[just_want_2_win]

Forte owners:

Nothing to worry about, carry on.

Forte leads the ENTIRE league in receptions.

Forte owners: You're doomed.

 

[TDorBust]

Do you have numbers on "targets" inside the 10? inside the 5?

To get a jumpstart I have compiled the distance of every offensive touchdown in the NFL from 2010 to 2014. This shows a pretty clear picture from my point of view. See the graph first:

*Just a quick study of all TDs scored from 2010 through 2014 (10/18/14)*

TD Type 0-4 5-9 10-19 29-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total

Passing 759 750 806 438 265 169 326 3513

Rushing 1031 315 225 83 65 37 79 1835

Total 1790 1065 1031 521 330 206 405 5348

As you can see it is 2:1 of TDs from 0-4 rushing vs 5-19 rushing. So getting touches as a RB when you are inside the red zone does not really matter. What really matters is getting touches inside the 5. As to compare against the red zone attempts above please see the next chart.

*All TDs scored from Week 1 to 10/18/14

TD Type 0-4 5-9 10-19 29-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total

Passing 70 81 63 35 17 11 30 307

Rushing 73 26 25 7 3 2 4 140

Total 143 107 88 42 20 13 34 447

Again you can see a large increase in the amount of rushing TDs inside the 5 vs farther out in the red zone. Now again this might just be because teams handoff less at the 5-20 but we need more information to fully understand that piece.

In the end I would have a hard time justifying trading or acquiring a RB because of touches in the red zone. Another piece of information I would want to know is when a team gets to the 4 for instance does the team run prior to throwing the eventual TD?

Example look at the 49ers vs Bears matchup when looking at Forte: (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201409140sfo.htm)

1TD - First play @17 - Pass to Marshall TD

2TD - Forte Pass 11 yards, Forte Rush 1 yard, Pass Marshall TD

3TD - After INT - @3 pass to Bennett TD

4TD - Forte Rush 5 yards @8, Pass Marshall TD

Draw your own conclusion but I see Forte being the goto player on 2 drives to start off the red zone visit. I am not saying it wouldn't be great to get more touches for Forte inside the 5 instead of those short passes but come later in the season who is to say Cutler doesn't change the play at the line for a HB delay up the middle for a TD instead of throwing it out to Marshall?

*The next piece of information we would need is how many plays were run at each yardage mark as well, that would tell us more accurately how likely a TD is going to occur from a touch at that point on the field. Does it take 3 Runs at the 3 yard line to get a TD vs 2 Passes at the 3 yard line to get a TD?

So did we conclude that "Red Zone" touches don't matter? All 3 teams your talking about have top 10 RBs in my leagues with Lacy being on both my teams.

 

[Freelove]

Do you have numbers on "targets" inside the 10? inside the 5?

To get a jumpstart I have compiled the distance of every offensive touchdown in the NFL from 2010 to 2014. This shows a pretty clear picture from my point of view. See the graph first:

*Just a quick study of all TDs scored from 2010 through 2014 (10/18/14)*

TD Type 0-4 5-9 10-19 29-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total

Passing 759 750 806 438 265 169 326 3513

Rushing 1031 315 225 83 65 37 79 1835

Total 1790 1065 1031 521 330 206 405 5348

As you can see it is 2:1 of TDs from 0-4 rushing vs 5-19 rushing. So getting touches as a RB when you are inside the red zone does not really matter. What really matters is getting touches inside the 5. As to compare against the red zone attempts above please see the next chart.

*All TDs scored from Week 1 to 10/18/14

TD Type 0-4 5-9 10-19 29-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total

Passing 70 81 63 35 17 11 30 307

Rushing 73 26 25 7 3 2 4 140

Total 143 107 88 42 20 13 34 447

Again you can see a large increase in the amount of rushing TDs inside the 5 vs farther out in the red zone. Now again this might just be because teams handoff less at the 5-20 but we need more information to fully understand that piece.

In the end I would have a hard time justifying trading or acquiring a RB because of touches in the red zone. Another piece of information I would want to know is when a team gets to the 4 for instance does the team run prior to throwing the eventual TD?

Example look at the 49ers vs Bears matchup when looking at Forte: (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201409140sfo.htm)

1TD - First play @17 - Pass to Marshall TD

2TD - Forte Pass 11 yards, Forte Rush 1 yard, Pass Marshall TD

3TD - After INT - @3 pass to Bennett TD

4TD - Forte Rush 5 yards @8, Pass Marshall TD

Draw your own conclusion but I see Forte being the goto player on 2 drives to start off the red zone visit. I am not saying it wouldn't be great to get more touches for Forte inside the 5 instead of those short passes but come later in the season who is to say Cutler doesn't change the play at the line for a HB delay up the middle for a TD instead of throwing it out to Marshall?

*The next piece of information we would need is how many plays were run at each yardage mark as well, that would tell us more accurately how likely a TD is going to occur from a touch at that point on the field. Does it take 3 Runs at the 3 yard line to get a TD vs 2 Passes at the 3 yard line to get a TD?

So did we conclude that "Red Zone" touches don't matter? All 3 teams your talking about have top 10 RBs in my leagues with Lacy being on both my teams.

No point arguing any of the merits or demerits of Lacy/Bell/Tate/Ellington retroactively, I guess. But any analysis that started with the idea that Forte should be discounted should have been laughed off the front page on the basis that the analyst must have missed the last half decade plus of the NFL.