Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond (2 Viewers)

[mjb03003]

I've seen people putting him as high as RB5 for dynasty purposes. Remember he's just 24 (turns 25 next month) and has just 638 career carries. 

How many guys would confidently put ahead of him?

Bell

Gurley

D. Johnson?

D. Freeman?

D. Martin?

Ingram?

Elliot?

 

[travdogg]

I've seen people putting him as high as RB5 for dynasty purposes. Remember he's just 24 (turns 25 next month) and has just 638 career carries. 

How many guys would confidently put ahead of him?

Bell

Gurley

D. Johnson?

D. Freeman?

D. Martin?

Ingram?

Elliot?

I would have him comfortably ahead of Ingram. Probably about equal to Martin, but with a little less safety because Martin has 2 top-5 seasons already. 

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

The coaching changes in Miami had me cautiously optimistic had he stayed, but at the same time, Miller's misuse seemed to carry over from HC to HC so you have to wonder if he was typecast by persons higher up than the HC's and thus would never get used properly regardless of who was HC.

Or he's not as good as everyone is hoping for.

 

[steveski]

If Brock can be at least an average QB then I like this spot. If he sucks then this could be a rough couple years. 

 

[tone1oc]

I've seen people putting him as high as RB5 for dynasty purposes. Remember he's just 24 (turns 25 next month) and has just 638 career carries. 

How many guys would confidently put ahead of him?

Bell

Gurley

D. Johnson?

D. Freeman?

D. Martin?

Ingram?

Elliot?

I'd quite easily take them all over Lamar, only Ingram deserves the "?"..  I'd add to that list Derrick Henry, Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls & Carlos Hyde off the top of my head.

He's currently RB5 in dynasty ADP (including rookies), at that price every last ounce of upside is baked into his current price tag.. For a RB that hasn't proven consistent over a 16 game schedule with feature back carries on a team that will likely struggle on offense I'd say he's a strong sell.   Does anyone honestly see this guy being a top 5 back for the next 2-3 years?
 

 

[maf005]

I'd quite easily take them all over Lamar, only Ingram deserves the "?"..  I'd add to that list Derrick Henry, Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls & Carlos Hyde off the top of my head.

He's currently RB5 in dynasty ADP (including rookies), at that price every last ounce of upside is baked into his current price tag.. For a RB that hasn't proven consistent over a 16 game schedule with feature back carries on a team that will likely struggle on offense I'd say he's a strong sell.   Does anyone honestly see this guy being a top 5 back for the next 2-3 years?
 

It's not difficult to imagine Miller being a top 5 back with a proper workload. Actually, I'd project a ~rb8 finish to be somewhere near his floor

 

[BustedKnuckles]

the fact that he catches the ball really well is huge ...makes him better than someone like d.martin right off the bat

 

[mjb03003]

In my league, Miller was RB5 last year despite his sometimes baffling usage. I know there were a lot of injuries - Charles, Bell, Foster, Lynch (did I miss any?) - and David Johnson would have likely out scored him as well if he started all season, but consistent usage should make Miller a top 10 RB with relative ease in 2016.

 

[GrandpaRox]

Miller will be huge in Houston will get his 20+ touches a game. Houston is a perfect situation for him. 

 

[tone1oc]

Miller will be huge in Houston will get his 20+ touches a game. Houston is a perfect situation for him. 

Something he's managed to do twice in 4 seasons.  Seems legit.

 

[GrandpaRox]

That was on Miami not on Miller.  

We will see, he will see a lot of passes also. 

Time will tell.

Texan fans could not be happier with the Miller pick up.

 

[Slapdash]

Solid move for Miller. Anything has to be better for him than the situation he was in.

He's put up two top ten seasons being completely underused and behind a poor offensive line.  It is easy to connect the dots here and see great redraft and dynasty prospects.   So here are the two concerns I have from a fantasy perspective:

• How much of his production has come on passing downs?  Miami's offense rarely ever lined up to run the ball at another team.  He likely will not have similar per touch production on a more run-focused scheme.  Can Oswieler keep defenses honest?
  
• The pedigree question.  He was a fourth round pick and he has performed well.  The list of middle/late round backs who put up a few seasons then disappeared is very long.
  

I'm a big fan of the guy and really thought Miami got a steal when they drafted him.  Looking forward to seeing if he can keep it up in Houston.

 

[GregR]

Offensive line is going to have to be a wait and see thing, and that always is a big deal for a RB. Replacing two players on the line including a center, could take awhile to gel.  Would feel better if they draft another lineman to compete at center.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Offensive line is going to have to be a wait and see thing, and that always is a big deal for a RB. Replacing two players on the line including a center, could take awhile to gel.  Would feel better if they draft another lineman to compete at center.

And that's what I am hoping for.

So if they now have a young QB, a young RB and young WR's who are all presumably locked into starting or contributor roles prior to the draft, I'd hope addressing the o-line in the draft would be a possibility. I know there's another side of the ball to consider, but this could be a draft where they take several o-linemen and see what shakes out.

 

[Chaka]

The coaching changes in Miami had me cautiously optimistic had he stayed, but at the same time, Miller's misuse seemed to carry over from HC to HC so you have to wonder if he was typecast by persons higher up than the HC's and thus would never get used properly regardless of who was HC.

Philbin drafted him and was his coach for his 3.25 of his 4 seasons.

 

[Chaka]

the fact that he catches the ball really well is huge ...makes him better than someone like d.martin right off the bat

Martin catches the ball very well too.  He has a much better per reception output than Miller.

 

[Chaka]

• The pedigree question.  He was a fourth round pick and he has performed well.  The list of middle/late round backs who put up a few seasons then disappeared is very long.
  

I freely admit that I could be wrong here but I don't like this argument for a couple reasons: 1) Most RBs worth a darn only put up a few seasons and then disappear (I guess we need to more clearly define "a few good years" to resolve this one 2) is the proportion of middle/late round backs who put up a few seasons and disappear significantly different than the number of early round RBs who put up a few seasons and disappear? or 3) is the proportion of ones who don't disappear (by whatever arbitrary measure of "a few seasons" we are using) statistically significant between early round and mid/late round? (how many middle/late round guys put up a few good seasons and don't disappear?) and 4) the TD #s were nice but is 1,200 total yards really the benchmark of a good season?  That last one is a tough I agree because Lamar's TD #s were very nice for the last two years but TDs are so very volatile that yardage output, on the surface, seems to be a more consistent measure.  Would they be considered good years if he had only scored 4 TDs/year instead of 9.5?

 

[NeverEnough]

What is Miller's dynasty value now?

 

[Slider]

Probably top 4-6.

 

[menobrown]

What is Miller's dynasty value now?

Don't know but the few early redrafts I've seen, all FFPC, he looks like he's taken about a 2 round jump in redrafts and has gone from generally 4th round guy to high to mid second round.

 

[Deamon]

Don't know but the few early redrafts I've seen, all FFPC, he looks like he's taken about a 2 round jump in redrafts and has gone from generally 4th round guy to high to mid second round.

Surprised he was going so late before.  Although in PPR it's not that surprising I guess.   Standard leagues it looked like he was going late 2nd before the signing, and early 2nd after it.

 

[branch0095]

What is Miller's dynasty value now?

I think he has to be in the top 5-6 RB discussion. It just depends on your opinion of the other RB1s. To me it's Bell/Gurley, then everyone else. Who else would be put in front of Miller, Freeman/DJ and maybe Elliott? I can't think of anyone else I'd put ahead of Lamar in HOU, and I'm not even sure I'd put all of Freeman/DJ/Elliot in front of him. So RB3-RB6 is the range I'd have Miller in, and I just don't see any way I could put him below RB6. 

 

[Slider]

He was 6th in my ppr last year.

 

[Todem]

He is 24 and ready to have the prime of his career in Houston. Miami never featured him enough and it was mind boggling. When he got 15 or more touches a game we typically won. He has a 5th gear most backs do not have.

Kid has uber talent. And he fell in the draft mainly because of a questionable bad shoulder injury. Kid is a baller who should blossom in the Houston offense. As long as Brock can be competent and keep defenses honest, Lamar is a great pick up.

 

[bostonfred]

I hate it when people say a guy is uber talented.

Adrian Peterson is uber talented.  Chris Johnson was uber talented.  Tomlinson was uber talented.  They would have been studs no matter where you put them. 

Jamaal Charles and shady and lynch and foster are very very good.  You could put them just about anywhere and they'd succeed,  but in the right system they could be incredible. 

Miller is a level down from there.   He's good - maybe very good - and in the right system he could definitely be a rb1.   But he just got paid,  is going to have to learn a whole new coaching staff and offensive system in a new city, he's going to a team with a mediocre starting qb, that really only has one good player on offense,  is built around the defense,  and has holes on the offensive line.   

That doesn't mean he can't do very well,  but be careful with the superlatives.    He's a good but not great player in a decent but not great situation coming off his best year.   Maybe he keeps the momentum going, but it's hardly a lock. 

 

[gianmarco]

I hate it when people say a guy is uber talented.

Adrian Peterson is uber talented.  Chris Johnson was uber talented.  Tomlinson was uber talented.  They would have been studs no matter where you put them. 

Jamaal Charles and shady and lynch and foster are very very good.  You could put them just about anywhere and they'd succeed,  but in the right system they could be incredible. 

Miller is a level down from there.   He's good - maybe very good - and in the right system he could definitely be a rb1.   But he just got paid,  is going to have to learn a whole new coaching staff and offensive system in a new city, he's going to a team with a mediocre starting qb, that really only has one good player on offense,  is built around the defense,  and has holes on the offensive line.   

That doesn't mean he can't do very well,  but be careful with the superlatives.    He's a good but not great player in a decent but not great situation coming off his best year.   Maybe he keeps the momentum going, but it's hardly a lock. 

While I don't disagree with the premise of this post, I thought I'd add a couple thoughts:

1)  J. Charles really belongs in the uber talented list you put up.  Probably moreso than Chris Johnson.  J. Charles has been in the NFL for 8 seasons.  2 of those seasons were cut short due to injury early on and he played rather sparingly in his rookie year, but he still has played 6 full seasons and used for the majority of 5 of them.  Yet, in EVERY SINGLE SEASON he's ever played in the NFL, he's averaged AT LEAST 5.0 ypc.  No other RB in the history of the NFL has come even remotely close to that.  He has a CAREER 5.5 ypc, which is 0.3 ypc better than #2 on the list -- Jim Brown.  Jim Brown, even in his prime, had years where he averaged 4.3 and 4.6 ypc.  And Jamaal has done this on 1300+ career carries, so we're not talking a small sample size.  Add in his receiving prowess and the fact he's a 2-time All-Pro while playing at the same time as AP (and Chris Johnson for that matter), and I don't see how he isn't included in that list right behind AP.  I would argue that Charles would have been a stud anywhere he landed. 

2)  It's probably just semantics, but I think you may have read a bit too much into the "uber" label that Todem used.  I doubt he's putting him in the same tier as AP and Charles with his comment.  While uber may mean one thing to you, it's more likely he wasn't using it as quite the superlative that you attribute to it.  His point remains that the kid has talent and likely fell in the draft due to concern of an injury.  In the current NFL landscape (not the history of the NFL), he's one of the most talented backs in the league.  I would guess that's all he was trying to say about his talent level.

 

[Anarchy99]

I hate it when people say a guy is uber talented.

Adrian Peterson is uber talented.  Chris Johnson was uber talented.  Tomlinson was uber talented.  They would have been studs no matter where you put them. 

Jamaal Charles and shady and lynch and foster are very very good.  You could put them just about anywhere and they'd succeed,  but in the right system they could be incredible. 

Miller is a level down from there.   He's good - maybe very good - and in the right system he could definitely be a rb1.   But he just got paid,  is going to have to learn a whole new coaching staff and offensive system in a new city, he's going to a team with a mediocre starting qb, that really only has one good player on offense,  is built around the defense,  and has holes on the offensive line.   

That doesn't mean he can't do very well,  but be careful with the superlatives.    He's a good but not great player in a decent but not great situation coming off his best year.   Maybe he keeps the momentum going, but it's hardly a lock. 

I agree that flattering words really don't mean much. That being said, three of the main backs in the equation here (Miller, Foster, and Anderson) have fairly comparable metrics.

Over the past two years (which is not as arbitrary as it may seem . . . that's how long Bill O'Brien has been head coach in Houston), Arian Foster racked up 296.6 fantasy points on 383 total touches in 0 ppr leagues. That's an average of 0.774 points per touch, which ranked 5th in the league in that time for RBs with at least 200 touches. In 1 ppr leagues, that jumps up to 0.931 points per touch.

Lamar Miller put up 378.3 fantasy points on 495 touches in 0 ppr leagues. That's an average of 0.764 points per touch, which ranked 6th in the league. In 1 ppr leagues, he averaged 0.936 points per touch.

C.J. Anderson amassed 297.6 fantasy points on his 390 touches in 0 ppr leagues. He averaged 0.763 points per touch, which ranked him 8th in the league. He was slightly below the other two in ppr leagues, as he averaged 0.914 points per touch.

Bottom line, all three of these backs scored at a similar rate on a per touch basis over the past two seasons in the environments they are now leaving. While we don't know what will happen in their new surroundings, on the surface it appears that they should score at the same rate. Based on that, the question should shift to who will get the biggest workload on their new teams. (Admittedly, we don't know where Foster will be playing.)

 

[bostonfred]

I guess my bigger point is that rb talent is just one factor in fantasy rb success.  If you look at week to week rankings,  health, offensive line talent,  surrounding talent,  blocking scheme, coaching philosophy,  defense,  schedule, etc are all hugely important in determining who to start,  but in dynasty we always want to talk about how this guy is so talented he's going to put up x yards per carry and y points per touch.  

That's nice but not super meaningful once the guy gets a couple deep bruises in his thigh early in the season and doesn't tell anyone and his interior linemen on his new team are stronger but not as fast so he can never seem to get the edge because his blockers can't catch up.  And you can't really even quantify that stuff before or during the season because offensive lines get hurt all year and the starters change week to week.   

If you put Tomlinson or Peterson back there,  yeah,  it matters.   Otherwise there are a lot of factors that decide rb success that have nothing to do with the rb.  That's why the rb rankings year to year change so much - only the true studs stay up at the top while the other guys have good years and bad years.   

When we talk about "ordinary" rbs in dynasty being talented,  it's not that they're so good you should expect the same performance every year.   It's that they're so good that they will remain the starter after their rookie contract express, they can get hurt and the team won't replace them even if the backup does well, and yeah,  they might put up some lofty point per touch numbers or whatever along the way.   But that's just one of the factors unless we really are talking about someone on that next level of talent. 

 

[Todem]

I would never put Miller in the elite tier of the greats in history....but he is a very good NFL RB and does have an elite 5th gear which gives him extra value in performance leagues that award long TD's and IMO the more touches he get in Houston the more TD's he can score.

I also fully expect him to be utilized much more in the passing game in Houston. Something Miami was idiotic about as he is a deadly guy in space and screens to him usually resulted in great chunk yardage and a couple of monster TD's. 

When given the workload Miller proved to me for 2 straight seasons he can put up big numbers and I think his potential for being an elite FF PPR back just went up leaving Miami.

ADP or LT2.0? No. But very good yes. And compared to a lot of starting backs in the league for this upcoming season, he is one of the better ones.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I hate it when people say a guy is uber talented.

Adrian Peterson is uber talented.  Chris Johnson was uber talented.  Tomlinson was uber talented.  They would have been studs no matter where you put them. 

Jamaal Charles and shady and lynch and foster are very very good.  You could put them just about anywhere and they'd succeed,  but in the right system they could be incredible. 

Miller is a level down from there.   He's good - maybe very good - and in the right system he could definitely be a rb1.   But he just got paid,  is going to have to learn a whole new coaching staff and offensive system in a new city, he's going to a team with a mediocre starting qb, that really only has one good player on offense,  is built around the defense,  and has holes on the offensive line.   

That doesn't mean he can't do very well,  but be careful with the superlatives.    He's a good but not great player in a decent but not great situation coming off his best year.   Maybe he keeps the momentum going, but it's hardly a lock. 

So what do defensive minded teams like to do when they do have the ball?

And who do QB's who like to throw to when they don't want to turn the ball over?

Am I worried about the o-line? Yes.

Am I worried about scheme or opportunity? Not really.

 

[Faust]

According to the Houston Chronicle, Lamar Miller will have a "versatile role as an inside and outside running presence" with the Texans, and "figures to be a healthy part of the passing game."
The Texans saw firsthand what Miller could do as an all-purpose threat in Week 7 last year, as he parlayed 14 carries into 175 yards and a touchdown with three catches for 61 yards and an additional score in a 44-26 Dolphins win over Houston. Even so, Miller averaged just 15 touches per game his final year in Miami. The 25-year-old's workload is certain to grow on a Texans team that has ranked No. 1 and No. 5 in the NFL in rushing attempts since Bill O'Brien took over as coach. Miller made significant strides in the passing game last year, setting career highs in catches, receiving yards, and yards per catch, and grading out as a top-three pass-blocking back at Pro Football Focus.

 
 
Source: Houston Chronicle 
Jun 5 - 11:24 PM

 

[Evil G]

This guy never has a dull moment.  I have seen him ranked as high as RB5 in dynasty and a 'dark horse to finish as the RB1 this year'. 

Surely he'll be a hot commodity in Redraft leagues. 

But it won't feel safe, by any means. 

 

[Shutout]

This guy never has a dull moment.  I have seen him ranked as high as RB5 in dynasty and a 'dark horse to finish as the RB1 this year'. 

Surely he'll be a hot commodity in Redraft leagues. 

But it won't feel safe, by any means. 

I think people have this vision that he is going to be what Arian Foster was and have that type of value and I don't think he can do it. No fancy metrics and stats and references to this and that. I'll just say I've seen his play and he's no Arian Foster.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I own him however I can't help but feel a dirty Steve Slaton feeling about him.

 

[Dezbelief]

I think Miller will make the Dolphins FO and previous coaching staffs look stupid.

 

[TZMarkie]

I think Miller will make the Dolphins FO and previous coaching staffs look stupid.

 I agree....but lets point out that it won't take much to make the previous regime  look stupid. CERTAINLY in regards to how they ran the ball and used RBs.

 The way I am planning to go WR-WR again this year in drafts, it will take something extremely fluky for me to acquire Miller.

 In fact I am starting to feel a little sick about it.

 The bad part about this situation is, I think it its very easy for two possible outcomes.

 #1- He puts up great numbers, looks solid and is a complete workhorse. He basically ends up as the next Arian Foster there. (or close in numbers, not necessarily the same type runner)

 #2- He does "fair" but quite a bit worse,say perhaps low end RB2-ish, and everyone screams "BUST!" at the end of the season.

 It does look more and more in drafts like he is inching higher and higher. This is only what I have noticed recently in the drafts I am taking part in, and it may not be actual hard numbers though.

 As much as I like the guy and his situation and want him to succeed, I think he could also easily be on everyone's list at the end of the season.

You know, the list where everyone says  "I drafted Lamar Miller so high this year, and he killed my team!!".

I'm not saying that will happen, but if I had to handpick 5 RBs who might be on said list, I think I would have to include him since he seems to be "expected" by most to do so well.   Wide range of possible outcomes here.

 TZM

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I own him however I can't help but feel a dirty Steve Slaton feeling about him.

Poor comparison in so many ways. Physically, situation, and ypc to start.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Poor comparison in so many ways. Physically, situation, and ypc to start.

Agree. I just feel a letdown coming.

 

[MrSoup]

Need to get this Lamar Miller hype train rolling. Pretty quiet.

 

[Hankmoody]

Shhh keep it down some of us are trying to draft over here.

 

[Faust]

Making the Leap: Texans RB Lamar Miller

 

[zed2283]

Is A.Blue the handcuff?

 

[Ilov80s]

Is A.Blue the handcuff?

My guess is it's the same as last year where if Foster/Miller go down, you will see about 3 guys worked in. Blue isn't good and can't play in the passing game.Grimes  never seemed to impress staff enough to get a lot of work. They drafted Tyler Ervin who looks like a small 3rd down back, but was a workhorse in college. IMO, it will be a mess if Miller goes down.

 

[zed2283]

My guess is it's the same as last year where if Foster/Miller go down, you will see about 3 guys worked in. Blue isn't good and can't play in the passing game.Grimes  never seemed to impress staff enough to get a lot of work. They drafted Tyler Ervin who looks like a small 3rd down back, but was a workhorse in college. IMO, it will be a mess if Miller goes down.

That's what I was afraid of.

 

[Ilov80s]

That's what I was afraid of.

At least there is hope for Ervin. Maybe if called upon he can do enough to be worth starting for fantasy. 

 

[Faust]

Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman "keep(s) hearing" from scouts around the league that Lamar Miller "might have a season for the ages."
We haven't had a blurb on Miller in over two months, and found this a perfect opportunity to change that. By all accounts, Miller has looked tremendous at training camp, with longtime Texans beat writer John McClain saying Miller's acceleration "looks like he's been shot out of a cannon." McClain also talked up Miller's pass catching and blocking. Some scouts told Freeman they think Miller could lead the league in rushing. After being completely miscast in Miami, Miller is going to be a workhorse for coach Bill O'Brien in an offense that was third in pace in 2015. Miller is a legit RB1 and first-round fantasy pick.

 
 
Source: Bleacher Report
Aug 17 - 3:37 PM

 

[ghostguy123]

If he stays healthy all year, then yeah, I think he scores really, really well.  Not "for the ages" well, but top 5 no problem. 

 

[The Hank]

I am super high on him - I pick 14th in my league and trying to devise a way to move up and get him. I have him as the 3rd rated RB this year only behind ADP and Gurley.

With a 14 team league that can start 2 qb's, I may be able to sneak into 8-12 and secure him.

 

[pantherclub]

I am super high on him - I pick 14th in my league and trying to devise a way to move up and get him. I have him as the 3rd rated RB this year only behind ADP and Gurley.

With a 14 team league that can start 2 qb's, I may be able to sneak into 8-12 and secure him.

that seems a bit aggressive

 

[Ilov80s]

that seems a bit aggressive

Why? How is DJ at 3 less aggressive?