Longtucky Lemmings said:
The Miami offense will look very different this season. I blame a lot of Miller's difficulties on the horrible playcalling. They have signalled that they will focus more on getting players in space and play up tempo which should be perfect for Miller. According to OTA and minicamp reports there will be a lot of similarities to the Eagles offense. Early signs are also that the line will be improved and has been a major focus point for Lazor, and that Knowshon is looking like a total trainwreck that might not make the 53 man roster. His condition, health and motivation have all been questioned and he's been struggling with the humidity in Miami. I believe he's already earned 1.25 guaranteed but that they would save 1.75 by cutting him. It will be interesting to see what they do.
At his current ADP I'm definitely buying Miller as I think the market has overcorrected itself going from being the next big thing to a major disappointment, but the talent and opportunity is still there. He has major upside but is currently going in the 10th-11th round. To me that is crazy. If you draft him in the third you will likely be disappointed...but I'd definitely look to get him before the 10th.
Bolded by me.
I disagree that most of the blame for Miller's struggles last year can be attributed to play calling. I actually watched a lot Miller last season and wasn't too impressed, overall, with what I saw. A back of his size needs to have some special athletic traits and/or vision to be truly impactful on his own. What Miller has going for him is:
- Plus speed
- Plus acceleration
- Plus hands in the passing game
The problem is, he has several factors working against him:
- Minus "wiggle" and ability to make defenders miss
- Minus ability to break tackles
- Minus vision unless the running lane is clearly open
- A less than stellar O-line and less than stellar QB
I could see Miller putting up Top 10 numbers as the unquestioned starter in, say, Denver. Problem is, he's barely above "just a guy" level in Miami. His situation only serves to exacerbate the skill issues working against him and his talents aren't enough to overcome it.
I'd draft him in the 10-12 rd range as a RB4 but expecting him to put up more than RB3 numbers is pretty silly.
I think the problems with Miami playcalling and its effect on the running game have been pretty well documented. Rotopat had a good article on it back in April:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46935/352/what-went-wrong-lamar-miller
Here are some of the key paragraphs for me:
"On paper, Miller had everything we want and more in a Next Great Workhorse Hope™. A bead on the starting job, impressive measurables, strong rookie stats and uninspiring backups. Dolphins brass and press spent the entire offseason talking him up."
"Miller’s problems were manifold. Embroiled in chaos off the field, his offensive line couldn’t block on it. Neither LGRichie Incognito nor starting tackle Jonathan Martin played a single snap after Week 9. Not that they’d been blazing trails before that, but losing two starting linemen for half the season generally isn’t a good thing for a running back. Elsewhere along Miller’s line were RG
John Jerry and eventual LT
Bryant McKinnie, two players more famous for their eating habits than their blocks. RT Tyson Clabo got washed out more often than an amateur surfer."
Please note that his yds/carry was at 4.81 in weeks 1-9 before the O-line evaporated which is pretty close to his rookie average of 4.90. And even though he's being talked about as a disaster last season he still averaged 4.0 on the season, which is less than great but still better than a guy like Zac Stacy and quite much better than Le'Veon Bell, Doug Martin or his Miami teammate Daniel Thomas. Without looking at the numbers and judging by the "hate" towards Lamar Miller you would think that his numbers were in the same league as T-Rich and Ray Rice, but they really weren't. In fact they were pretty much average for an NFL running back, but they are perceived as terrible since the expectations were so high and that his modest average was made worse by MIA not running the ball and the confusing timeshare with less than stellar NFL running back Daniel Thomas. And just to have mentioned it, Knowshon Moreno only averaged 4.31 in Denver against the most friendly boxes in the league. Back to Rotopat's article:
"But if Miller’s line play was a crisis, his coaching was a comedy. Miami’s pledge to run a balanced offense somehow translated to a unit that dialed up 594 throws (10th in the league) compared to just 349 runs (29th). You could argue that was a result of poor running and poorer blocking, but that wouldn’t be giving since-fired “OC” Mike Sherman his due. For Sherman, abandoning the run wasn’t so much a half-witted, short-sighted weekly occurrence, but a way of life. A passion. What he was born to do. Sherman’s “game plans” essentially amounted to an
“Ask Madden” grab bag.
In three of Miller’s best efforts — Week 4 vs. the Saints, Week 8 vs. the Patriots and Week 9 vs. the Bengals — he combined for 34 first-half carries for 209 yards (6.14 YPC). Miami trailed 21-10 at the break in New Orleans, but led the Patriots 17-3 and the Bengals 10-3. So Sherman spent the second half dialing up run after run, right? You can probably guess the answer. Miller ran the ball a total of 14 times in those second halves, including overtime against Cincinnati. That, in a nutshell, was Sherman’s “vision” for his offense, and his “reward” for a young player running well.
Miller has never been known as the world’s most-physical runner. He is not a player who moves piles with impressive leg drive, or stiff arms linebackers to tack on extra yards. Knowing this, I expected it to be one of the main takeaways from his film. Instead, I found a back who ran better than his statistics or workload would indicate, one severely let down by his line and coaching staff."
"But Miller is not only fast, but quick. His acceleration jumps off the screen. Miller isn’t quite a CJ2K-esque blur, but he’s undoubtedly one of the swiftest running backs in the league. When Miller finds his lane, he’s almost always good for 5-6 yards. He gets what’s blocked, even if he’s operating with a hole the size of
Tavon Austin. Miller is not immune to making the wrong read, but he gives away much fewer runs than the numbers would lead you to believe.
The problem is that, like his coaching, his blocking was as bad as advertised last season. Again, Miller is not a player who’s going to take on two tacklers and escape with extra yards. This stood out in 2013 because Miller received almost no second-level blocks. It was one cut, one block, one tackle. On the few occasions Miller’s blockers did manage to occupy a linebacker or defensive back, he usually gained 15-20 yards.
This was most pronounced on Miami’s outside-zone runs, or the rare instances Miller had the nerve to bounce wide on his own. Miller’s skill-set is tailor made for getting to the perimeter and upfield for monster gains. If only his line could ever set the edge. Whenever he was sent outside, Miller was a home run with a
Green Monster in front of him. Almost without fail, Miller would be swallowed up whole before he could even think about cutting upfield. It wasn’t a
matter of hesitance (
Trent Richardson) or a
lack of burst (
Ray Rice). It was Miller’s offensive line working like a strainer. When you have a space back you can never spring into space, you have a running back who’s not ripping off as many long gains as you’d like."
