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Lamar Miller vs David Wilson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ShaHBucks
- Start date
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Fixed the question for both.
Benchwarmers
Footballguy
I like Miller but Wilson is going to be a stud in that offense.
Khy
Footballguy
I'm not sure how you could say that the talent is roughly even between them. Miller is a good talent and better than his 4th round pedigree. But to say he is on Wilson's level in terms of pure talent is simply silly. Wilson's talent at the position is through the roof, Miller is a player who is fairly (imo) average in most measurable at the position besides speed. He doesn't have amazing movement skills, he's not going to make many guys miss and he doesn't break a ton of tackles. At least not from all the tape on him I've watched. Where as Wilson does all of that in spades.
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Khy
Footballguy
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Miller. For starters, because Wilson is small and runs too angry for his size IMO. Likely to spend a large chunk of his career on the trainer's table.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think Wilson will get the vast majority of votes here, but I also think it's VERY close.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
For this year I think it might be Miller because Tannehill is still developing and they might lean on the run a little more, especially within the division that on paper is very weak against the run. The long haul I give the edge to Wilson because there is no guarantee that Miami will get all the pieces on offense to be great, the Giants already have an established quarterback, 2 established receivers.
Miller only ran the 40 (beat Wilson by 0.04) and did the vertical leap (at which Wilson crushed him) at the Combine.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am not sure why you think a struggling Qb would be GOOD for Miller over a RB like Wilson in an established offense that will likely move the ball better and have more scoring opportunities.
I mean, he might very well do better than Wilson this year, but not sure that reasoning is why.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Miller had better agility with his pro day numbers. Wilson vert and broad jump was nice, but the shuttle and 3-cone was weak.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
He won't get the carries near the goal...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
And if the Dolphins struggle, they won't be near the goal for Miller to have opportunities either.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
bou
On sheer volume.How did Peterson do last year with a struggling second year quarterback?How did Lynch do in 2011 on sheer volume with Taravais Jackson as quarterback?How did Bush do the last 2 years in Miami with horrible quarterback play?This would be exactly why Miller does better than Wilson this year, so why Wilson is fighting for touchdowns and yards with Myers, Nicks, Randle, Cruz, and Brown. Miller might be the only option in the red zone for the Dolphins.A bad NFL offense will score 24 offensive touchdowns in a season, if Miller is the best option in that offense you are telling me he can't get 8 of them?
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
So its a push
ghostguy123
Footballguy
That is assuming Wilson doesnt get much goaline at all with Brown staying healthy all year. I am not assuming that.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
AP>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Miller
Lynch>>>>>>>>>>>>Miller with a better Oline
Bush did ok, nothing super special.
I can't sit here and assume Miller racks up 250 points. It wont surprise me, and it wont surprise me at all if he outscores Wilson, but it won't be because Tannehill is struggling.
If Tannehill sucks and checks down on screens 60 times to Miller, well, thats a whole different story.
Khy
Footballguy
I'm not really even talking numbers, just watch the footage of Miller vs the footage of Wilson. Wilson meets a LBer makes a move hits the jets and he's gone. Miller meets a LBer gets hit and falls. In all his Miami tape this is seen time after time after time. Compared to Wilson who is a threat to hit a home run every time the ball gets into his hands.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
So you don't think Miller can do 60 percent of Peterson last season? Lynch was traded for a 4th round pick before he had that season he had with Jackson at quarterback. There is a reason they let Bush walk, and have pretty much told the world that Miller is the starter and every down back. The Giants have yet to do either with Wilson. So if Tannehill struggles they would for sure lean on him and he could out produce Wilson because Miami doesn't want to destroy Tannehill's confidence. 200 carries for Wilson at 5 YPC is still less fantasy points than Miller's 300 carries at 3.5 ypc
There's no way Miller gets 300 carries if he's running at 3.5 a pop. They do have Thomas and Gillislee to compete. The Giants have a red zone/short yardage plodder to compete with Wilson.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
It is an example
ghostguy123
Footballguy
300 carries at 3.5 YPC.....................isn't happening. Do you realize how unlikely it is that Miller will get 300 carries (or even touches)???
Also, I have NEVER really listened to what teams say about players during the offseason. We all know Miller is starting. We all know WIlson is starting. I know this, if I listened and judged things based on "coach speak" in the offseason, my teams would be much much worse.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
It is the most extreme example
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
How bout this for an example. If they both get the same number of touches, Wilson will score more fantasy points.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I will play along but this defeats my whole argument because I value Miller more this year because I think the Dolphins will protect Tannehill so he doesn't struggle and lose confidence and thus Miller will get at least 50 more touches this year compared to Wilson, I also think that Brown is way better than anything after Miller. If they get the same number of touches I think it is a push or a slight edge to Wilson because I still believe Miller scores more touchdowns.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I will conceed that Miller will get a higher percentage of the team's total touches than Wilson if Tannehill struggles.
However, that very likely means the Giants run a LOT more total offensive plays, so their touches will be real real close, if not more for Wilson.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
That is quite possible but that would mean Wilson gets the bulk of the work and I don't see that happening, I see him getting 50 percent of the touches Brown getting 40 percent and the other 10 to qbs wrs and another occasional back
Half in the bag
Footballguy
The health of ABrown will have the final say ultimately. Miller should be the clear cut starter all things being equal. I don't know if you can say the same for Wilson.
I cannot believe this thread even exists.
Wilson is going to crush Miller in career VBD.
I'm not even that high on Wilson. I think he's around RB18 this year. The Miller talk/hype is insane. I don't know how many times I've said this, but the dude couldn't even beat out Daniel Thomas on the depth chart in training camp. Thomas was arguably the worst RB in the league last year over 100 touches. Everyone is going to re-visit threads like these and be all sick :X that they ever compared the two.
Wilson is going to crush Miller in career VBD.
I'm not even that high on Wilson. I think he's around RB18 this year. The Miller talk/hype is insane. I don't know how many times I've said this, but the dude couldn't even beat out Daniel Thomas on the depth chart in training camp. Thomas was arguably the worst RB in the league last year over 100 touches. Everyone is going to re-visit threads like these and be all sick :X that they ever compared the two.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
And David Wilson couldn't beat out a 4th round running back going on his 5th team last year, with a whole 2 career carries after the starter went down. What is your point?
Wilson was one of the most electric players in the league last year and was the lead back in the committee during the last four games. The only reason he didn't play more is Coughlin has unreasonable dislike for fumbles and Andre had the hot hand mid-season (carved up Carolina). Daniel Thomas never had the hot hand and was by all accounts awful the entire season. Wilson had ONE fumble last year but it happened to be in the first game, so Coughlin basically shathouse him for the next 10 games... which was insane, because of how talented the guy is compared to the other backs.
I have to believe if Wilson was on many other teams, or a team with a worse passing offense, or a team with a more reasonable coach, that he would have been fed the ball and gotten over 1000 yards easily. Imagine Wilson on the Redskins with RG3 ... jesus. I'll take talent over situation any day of the week because it will pay off in the long run.
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More similar than you would think. I read a number of stories last year referring to Miller finding himself in the doghouse. Quotes like "The Dolphins haven't been thrilled with Miller's awareness so far. His pass blocking hasn't been up to par, and he didn't hear an audible two weeks ago against the Jets and ran the wrong way on a handoff."
I don't think it was his "talent" or lack thereof keeping him off the field. Rookies.
That said, I'm a Wilson guy.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yeah, kinda silly to say that "Miller couldnt beat out Thomas", and then give some glowing endorsement for Wilson.
I mean, if you like Wilson 10x more than Miller then fine. I like him better, too. But saying Miller couldnt beat out Thomas is horribly misleading in every possible way.
For some rookies/coaches there's more to it than just being more talented than another guy at the same position and getting more playing time than that other player. I thought this concept was incredibly obvious and didn't really need to be discussed at all, but I guess I was wrong.
But to reference that for Miller and not Wilson is.............dare I say..............hypocritocal??
I mean, if you like Wilson 10x more than Miller then fine. I like him better, too. But saying Miller couldnt beat out Thomas is horribly misleading in every possible way.
For some rookies/coaches there's more to it than just being more talented than another guy at the same position and getting more playing time than that other player. I thought this concept was incredibly obvious and didn't really need to be discussed at all, but I guess I was wrong.
But to reference that for Miller and not Wilson is.............dare I say..............hypocritocal??
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Catbird
Footballguy
I drafted these guys 1.3 and 2.3 in my dynasty rookie draft last year. I'm glad their upside is showing (particularly as I only have the misfit pieces in Carolina, a couple of other Ballard-esque spare parts and a high pick in this year's rookie draft at RB going forward.
Writing though about the assumption that if Tannehill struggles, Miller will excel. I don't think it works that way at all. When a QB plays well, his team keeps more drives alive, gets to the red zone more and most importantly, keeps the defense from stacking the box to shut down the run than if he plays badly. A better QB is also more able to complete passes to the RB. All of these factors give the offense more plays and the RB more carries, catches and chances to score. I realize that having more weapons and a strong passing game spreads around the points as well. The two factors tend to offset each other, but if I have a RB, I want his team to have a good and productive QB with him.
The numbers say RBs can benefit both ways. Great RB totals can come with good QB production (Lynch, McGahee, A. Morris, Ridley) or with poor QBs (ADP, MJD, Charles) but I would argue the RBs with good QBs don't have to be as exceptional RBs to produce big numbers as if they have lesser QBs. Bad RB results are just about as equally spread between good QBs and bad. My point is, I don't think Tannehill sucking will help Miller at all, because if he does, the team will score less, run less plays and opposing defenses will load the box and make rushing much more difficult. (Luckily, I don't think Tannehill will suck.)
On the OP question, feeling that both guys have shown glimpses of huge talent and that neither one is the least bit proven as a 'bellcow' RB, I voted for Wilson because the Miami OL just isn't up to the task of either blocking for Tannehill or for Miller nearly as well as the NYG line will for Eli and Wilson, this year and until that balance changes. I would also note that Miller has the greater injury history and Wilson has, to date, shown more elite open field blaze. I think that outweighs, until we know more, how the potential we have seen in Miller's smooth elusiveness and perhaps superior production between the tackles will compare to what Wilson will generate in the FF stat line.
Writing though about the assumption that if Tannehill struggles, Miller will excel. I don't think it works that way at all. When a QB plays well, his team keeps more drives alive, gets to the red zone more and most importantly, keeps the defense from stacking the box to shut down the run than if he plays badly. A better QB is also more able to complete passes to the RB. All of these factors give the offense more plays and the RB more carries, catches and chances to score. I realize that having more weapons and a strong passing game spreads around the points as well. The two factors tend to offset each other, but if I have a RB, I want his team to have a good and productive QB with him.
The numbers say RBs can benefit both ways. Great RB totals can come with good QB production (Lynch, McGahee, A. Morris, Ridley) or with poor QBs (ADP, MJD, Charles) but I would argue the RBs with good QBs don't have to be as exceptional RBs to produce big numbers as if they have lesser QBs. Bad RB results are just about as equally spread between good QBs and bad. My point is, I don't think Tannehill sucking will help Miller at all, because if he does, the team will score less, run less plays and opposing defenses will load the box and make rushing much more difficult. (Luckily, I don't think Tannehill will suck.)
On the OP question, feeling that both guys have shown glimpses of huge talent and that neither one is the least bit proven as a 'bellcow' RB, I voted for Wilson because the Miami OL just isn't up to the task of either blocking for Tannehill or for Miller nearly as well as the NYG line will for Eli and Wilson, this year and until that balance changes. I would also note that Miller has the greater injury history and Wilson has, to date, shown more elite open field blaze. I think that outweighs, until we know more, how the potential we have seen in Miller's smooth elusiveness and perhaps superior production between the tackles will compare to what Wilson will generate in the FF stat line.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
What he said.
Also, one small bit to add, if Tannehill struggles, it probably means the Dolphins will be trailing in games a lot of the time, and not running it with Miller 20+ times a game.
Also, one small bit to add, if Tannehill struggles, it probably means the Dolphins will be trailing in games a lot of the time, and not running it with Miller 20+ times a game.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Everyone is worked up for Wilson, rightfully so, but Lamar Miller is more likely to start/see more carries in 2013 than Wilson does. No one has argued that Miller has the clearer path, but people are more enthused with Wilson. Bush is out, Thomas isn't that great and Gilleslee is as close to a bust as they come. Andre Brown is a threat and he isn't going anywhere.
David Wilson was a bad bet more often than not last season, somehow he became the greatest RB alive. He looked like the 3rd best RB on his team last year. I would consider a argument that even Kregg Lumpkin outplayed him in the ATL game. Wilson dealt with fumbles, dropped passes, crying, backflips, and underperformance but this is a silly question because he's the next great FF RB. I don't have anything against Wilson. If fact, as a starter I think he could get 1200+ yards and 6-8 TDs and be exciting. Right now he's looking like a 1a, 1b, or 60/40 split that yields goal line carries at best, that's not what I look for in FF RB's. Lamar Miller is looking like the unquestioned main carry RB for Mia. That might be good enough for fringe top 15-20 ppr numbers, with some upside. Unless something changes you can have Wilson.
David Wilson was a bad bet more often than not last season, somehow he became the greatest RB alive. He looked like the 3rd best RB on his team last year. I would consider a argument that even Kregg Lumpkin outplayed him in the ATL game. Wilson dealt with fumbles, dropped passes, crying, backflips, and underperformance but this is a silly question because he's the next great FF RB. I don't have anything against Wilson. If fact, as a starter I think he could get 1200+ yards and 6-8 TDs and be exciting. Right now he's looking like a 1a, 1b, or 60/40 split that yields goal line carries at best, that's not what I look for in FF RB's. Lamar Miller is looking like the unquestioned main carry RB for Mia. That might be good enough for fringe top 15-20 ppr numbers, with some upside. Unless something changes you can have Wilson.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
As a general rule, I go with talent over situation for RBs. I happen to think Wilson is more talented than Miller.
I call it my Wali Lundy rule.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
My goodness, good posting. I don't understand why meyerj31 keeps running from L. Miller thread to L. Miller thread to keep spouting his reason for not liking him as if he's cracked some secret code. Perhaps the Dolphins didn't want a rookie QB lined up next to a rookie RB? Believe it or not there is more to the position than just grabbing the ball and running, and sometimes learning the nuances of the position takes time. So yeah, Daniel Thomas saw the field more. Wouldn't be the first time a less skilled veteran played over a rookie and it won't be the last. It means absolutely nothing in the long run just as it didn't mean much that Wilson got the same treatment which I see is being shrugged away by some other foolish logic. I'm not going to pretend to know if Miller busts or not, but if we want to continue the lazy depth chart analysis shouldn't Miller have the advantage right now? His coach is endorsing him as the clear cut #1, meanwhile Wilson is still struggling to beat out average talent. (I like Wilson more)
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
So when exactly did Miller become a good bet? Did he produce or flash more than Wilson last year or is it simply offseason hype that made him a better bet? Outside of one decent redzone carry, I didn't see anything in Miller to warrant his lofty projections and I watched every snap of his, (which wasn't difficult because there were so few). I also watched every snap of Wilson's and it's pretty obvious that he is more explosive than anyone on the field.
To me, it's Wilson by a good margin, short and long term.
Khy
Footballguy
Yeah this one confused me also... last season Miller saw less carries, less yards and less YPC than Wilson saw last season. Miller's were also all spread out randomly through the year 4-5 carries in random games. Wilson more or less took 50% of the teams RB snaps the last 4 weeks of the season and up up about 11 carries/62yards/0.75TDs/5.75ypc during those four games. And looked explosive as hell while doing it, that's completely negating the fact that he lead the league in special teams yardage last season and every time he caught a kickoff was a Patrick Peterson/Devin Hester type threat from the goalline. The fact that we're actually sitting here comparing the two on talent is mind blowing to me. Even if Wilson sees 50 less carries than Miller I'd still expect him to out produce Miller.
moleculo
Footballguy
This time of year, vs type threads are about sorting out draft order and can (should) be applicable to everyone playing redraft.This is a far cry from wdis, which are only applicable to the small percentage of teams w/ both players.
I find great value in threads like this.
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