Lance Moore (1 Viewer)

[RalphMouth]

what do you see for him the rest of the season now that he's healthy ?

 

[Black]

I think we need the X Y Z guys in here to suggest what players play what positions normally for the Saints (speed guys, possession guys), to list what formations the Saints play most often, and who would therefore get the most snaps.

A more qualitative assessment is basically that Colston is a huge target, but not a burner. Moore is a smaller guy, great possession receiver, but also not a burner. With that in mind, I think that you might continue to see alot of Henderson or Meachum on the field with Colston primarily on the outside positions, as most teams will field a 'burner' to help spread the field. If/when the Saints go 3 WR sets, you'll see Moore.

As far as total targets, Moore is probably third, behind Colston and the 3RBBC (mostly PThomas and Re Bush) or Shockey. The difference this year is that Colston and Shockey are healthy. Moore put up a ton of numbers last year with them limited/out.

For a team that throws and scores as they do, he's still pretty valuable and probably the equivalent of a decent WR2 on any other team.

Watch his targets over the next few weeks. He had 7 targets in a game that was well in hand last week. If he's getting 8+ targets a game moving forward, he's a WR2 in PPR and spot-start WR2/3 in non-PPR.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I think we need the X Y Z guys in here to suggest what players play what positions normally for the Saints (speed guys, possession guys), to list what formations the Saints play most often, and who would therefore get the most snaps.

A more qualitative assessment is basically that Colston is a huge target, but not a burner. Moore is a smaller guy, great possession receiver, but also not a burner. With that in mind, I think that you might continue to see alot of Henderson or Meachum on the field with Colston primarily on the outside positions, as most teams will field a 'burner' to help spread the field. If/when the Saints go 3 WR sets, you'll see Moore.

As far as total targets, Moore is probably third, behind Colston and the 3RBBC (mostly PThomas and Re Bush) or Shockey. The difference this year is that Colston and Shockey are healthy. Moore put up a ton of numbers last year with them limited/out.

For a team that throws and scores as they do, he's still pretty valuable and probably the equivalent of a decent WR2 on any other team.

Watch his targets over the next few weeks. He had 7 targets in a game that was well in hand last week. If he's getting 8+ targets a game moving forward, he's a WR2 in PPR and spot-start WR2/3 in non-PPR.

If he is getting 8+ targets a game that would put him in pretty good company. Players with 8+ TPG this yearAndre Johnson HOU

Larry Fitzgerald ARI

Randy Moss NE

Reggie Wayne IND

Steve Smith CAR

Nate Burleson SEA

Steve Smith NYG 8

Chad Ochocinco CIN

T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA

Anquan Boldin ARI

Wes Welker NE

Hines Ward PIT

Roddy White ATL

DeSean Jackson PHI

Santonio Holmes PIT

 

[H.K.]

I think we need the X Y Z guys in here to suggest what players play what positions normally for the Saints (speed guys, possession guys), to list what formations the Saints play most often, and who would therefore get the most snaps.

A more qualitative assessment is basically that Colston is a huge target, but not a burner. Moore is a smaller guy, great possession receiver, but also not a burner. With that in mind, I think that you might continue to see alot of Henderson or Meachum on the field with Colston primarily on the outside positions, as most teams will field a 'burner' to help spread the field. If/when the Saints go 3 WR sets, you'll see Moore.

As far as total targets, Moore is probably third, behind Colston and the 3RBBC (mostly PThomas and Re Bush) or Shockey. The difference this year is that Colston and Shockey are healthy. Moore put up a ton of numbers last year with them limited/out.

For a team that throws and scores as they do, he's still pretty valuable and probably the equivalent of a decent WR2 on any other team.

Watch his targets over the next few weeks. He had 7 targets in a game that was well in hand last week. If he's getting 8+ targets a game moving forward, he's a WR2 in PPR and spot-start WR2/3 in non-PPR.

If he is getting 8+ targets a game that would put him in pretty good company. Players with 8+ TPG this yearAndre Johnson HOU

Larry Fitzgerald ARI

Randy Moss NE

Reggie Wayne IND

Steve Smith CAR

Nate Burleson SEA

Steve Smith NYG 8

Chad Ochocinco CIN

T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA

Anquan Boldin ARI

Wes Welker NE

Hines Ward PIT

Roddy White ATL

DeSean Jackson PHI

Santonio Holmes PIT

Moore had 119 targets last year, averaging 7.4 per game.However, what was interesting about him last season was his performance in the final eight weeks of the year. The Saints had a Week 9 bye and Colston was fully healthy after that week. With that circumstance in mind, here were Moore's splits for the first and second halves of the season:

Moore's first eight weeks without a healthy Colston were 55 targets (6.9/game) 38 recepts 341 yards and 3 TD's (Colston played three games and had 5 recepts for 82 yards in this span)

Moore's second eight weeks with a healthy Colston were 64 targets (8/game) 41 recpts 497 yards and 7 TD's (Colston played all eight games and had 42 recepts for 678 yards and 5 TD's for this span)

Obviously circumstances are different this year and NO uses personnel differently now, but I found it interesting that Moore was slightly better with Colston available last season.

Who knows what Moore will do with now after guys like Meachem and Henderson emerged in his absence, but Lance is a guy to keep tabs on if he assumes a similar role to the second half of last year.

 

[otis68]

In his two games with significant playing time, Moore has had only one snap in a 2WR set...this will likely continue to be the case unless Colston goes down. Meacham is cannabalizing a little bit of Henderson's playing time, but I don't think either of them cut into Moores targets...he competes more with Shockey and to a lesser extent Bush for targets.

Now that he's healthy, he should be good for 4-6 targets a game...this could go up if Shockey can't go.

 

[RUSF18]

In his two games with significant playing time, Moore has had only one snap in a 2WR set...this will likely continue to be the case unless Colston goes down. Meacham is cannabalizing a little bit of Henderson's playing time, but I don't think either of them cut into Moores targets...he competes more with Shockey and to a lesser extent Bush for targets. Now that he's healthy, he should be good for 4-6 targets a game...this could go up if Shockey can't go.

How many 2WR sets do they actually run? Do they tend to use that when running the ball? The NYG game was the first time I was able to watch the Saints extensively, and Moore was lined up all over the field for anyone worried about his "position."

 

[otis68]

In his two games with significant playing time, Moore has had only one snap in a 2WR set...this will likely continue to be the case unless Colston goes down. Meacham is cannabalizing a little bit of Henderson's playing time, but I don't think either of them cut into Moores targets...he competes more with Shockey and to a lesser extent Bush for targets. Now that he's healthy, he should be good for 4-6 targets a game...this could go up if Shockey can't go.

How many 2WR sets do they actually run? Do they tend to use that when running the ball? The NYG game was the first time I was able to watch the Saints extensively, and Moore was lined up all over the field for anyone worried about his "position."

They run more sets with 2WR or less better than 50% of the time (I count 40 out of the 62 snaps last game, not counting the last 15 plays of the games where they ran down the clock). Note when I talk about a "WR" set, I'm talking specifically about when one of the 4 primary WR (moore, meacham, colston, henderson) are on the field. They line up people all over the place, including Shockey and Bush as WR. And they throw and run out of all the formations as well (including runs out of 4 WR and throw out of 3TE). Last game, Moore was on the field for around half the pass plays, Colston 90%, Henderson 60% and Meacham 30%.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Miami has a very good run D and a bad pass D. Expect Brees to throw a lot and be in a lot of 2nd and long or 3rd and long. Moore will get a lot of targets this week IMO.

 

[Black]

Excellent analysis and insight here folks....thanks. Esp liked the details of splits from last year with Colston in/out. I was under the impression that most of his numbers came with Colston out..which was wrong.

I do think the biggest difference this year is Shockey and that those are 'his' targets.

 

[H.K.]

Excellent analysis and insight here folks....thanks. Esp liked the details of splits from last year with Colston in/out. I was under the impression that most of his numbers came with Colston out..which was wrong.

I do think the biggest difference this year is Shockey and that those are 'his' targets.

I thought so too, until I looked it up. In 2008 the Saints targeted their TE's 156 times at a rate of 9.75 per game. Both Miller and Shockey missed time last year but combined they were targeted 135 times (Shockey averaged 6 targets a game, Miller was at 4.2).

In 2009, the Saints have thrown to TE's 34 times in 5 games, down to only 6.8 targets per game average...that's almost three fewer TE targets on a weekly basis this year. As far as Shockey goes, he has 29 targets which is right at his 6 targets per game from last season.

So maybe it's Miller's former targets that are now being redistributed?

 

[Black]

Excellent analysis and insight here folks....thanks. Esp liked the details of splits from last year with Colston in/out. I was under the impression that most of his numbers came with Colston out..which was wrong.

I do think the biggest difference this year is Shockey and that those are 'his' targets.

I thought so too, until I looked it up. In 2008 the Saints targeted their TE's 156 times at a rate of 9.75 per game. Both Miller and Shockey missed time last year but combined they were targeted 135 times (Shockey averaged 6 targets a game, Miller was at 4.2).

In 2009, the Saints have thrown to TE's 34 times in 5 games, down to only 6.8 targets per game average...that's almost three fewer TE targets on a weekly basis this year. As far as Shockey goes, he has 29 targets which is right at his 6 targets per game from last season.

So maybe it's Miller's former targets that are now being redistributed?

Ha ha...I'm getting it wrong all over, which is fine for me, since I have L. Moore and hope he can pick it up where he left off.I guess maybe the running game is taking more plays? Are they running the ball more this year? (he said, expecting some contrary stats in the next post... )

Either way, they are on a tear, and I am happy to plug in 'L.Mo' and see what happens.

 

[otis68]

Excellent analysis and insight here folks....thanks. Esp liked the details of splits from last year with Colston in/out. I was under the impression that most of his numbers came with Colston out..which was wrong.

I do think the biggest difference this year is Shockey and that those are 'his' targets.

I thought so too, until I looked it up. In 2008 the Saints targeted their TE's 156 times at a rate of 9.75 per game. Both Miller and Shockey missed time last year but combined they were targeted 135 times (Shockey averaged 6 targets a game, Miller was at 4.2).

In 2009, the Saints have thrown to TE's 34 times in 5 games, down to only 6.8 targets per game average...that's almost three fewer TE targets on a weekly basis this year. As far as Shockey goes, he has 29 targets which is right at his 6 targets per game from last season.

So maybe it's Miller's former targets that are now being redistributed?

Ha ha...I'm getting it wrong all over, which is fine for me, since I have L. Moore and hope he can pick it up where he left off.I guess maybe the running game is taking more plays? Are they running the ball more this year? (he said, expecting some contrary stats in the next post... :( )

Either way, they are on a tear, and I am happy to plug in 'L.Mo' and see what happens.

They are definitely more balanced this year...last year they averaged 23 rushing plays/40 passing plays per game. This year they are averaging 32/32. The rushes have been skewed somewhat by blowouts.

 

[trader jake]

Quality thread. Bravo for the insight here guys, thanks!

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

What are thoughts about his prospects for this week?

The one thing that makes me hesitate to start Moore against Miami is that I can see the Dolphins' trying to use a similar game plan that they used against the Colts earlier in the year - a bunch of different wildcat looks, grind out the clock, play a time of possession game and keep Brees off the field, thereby limiting Moore's opportunities.

Am I overthinking this?

 

[Doug B]

Excellent analysis and insight here folks....thanks. Esp liked the details of splits from last year with Colston in/out. I was under the impression that most of his numbers came with Colston out..which was wrong.

I do think the biggest difference this year is Shockey and that those are 'his' targets.

Moore's 2008 numbers came with Shockey out -- as you point out, a lot of those looks are now Shockey's.EDIT: and now I see HK's numbers in post #10 Hmmm ... well, anyway, I'm still not ready to call Moore the Saints' statistical #2 WR just yet.

 

[Doug B]

What are thoughts about his prospects for this week? The one thing that makes me hesitate to start Moore against Miami is that I can see the Dolphins' trying to use a similar game plan that they used against the Colts earlier in the year - a bunch of different wildcat looks, grind out the clock, play a time of possession game and keep Brees off the field, thereby limiting Moore's opportunities. Am I overthinking this?

I do think the Saints are better than the Colts vs. the run ... so that strategy might not work quite the same way for the Dolphins this go-round. However, it still might be their best bet.

 

[adamjw2]

What are thoughts about his prospects for this week? The one thing that makes me hesitate to start Moore against Miami is that I can see the Dolphins' trying to use a similar game plan that they used against the Colts earlier in the year - a bunch of different wildcat looks, grind out the clock, play a time of possession game and keep Brees off the field, thereby limiting Moore's opportunities. Am I overthinking this?

I don't think you are overthinking this. If you subscribe to this theory, then the question is can the Saints D keep Miami's O (with Henne now instead of Pennington) on the sideline?

 

[Dragon1952]

Excellent analysis and insight here folks....thanks. Esp liked the details of splits from last year with Colston in/out. I was under the impression that most of his numbers came with Colston out..which was wrong.

I do think the biggest difference this year is Shockey and that those are 'his' targets.

Moore's 2008 numbers came with Shockey out -- as you point out, a lot of those looks are now Shockey's.EDIT: and now I see HK's numbers in post #10 Hmmm ... well, anyway, I'm still not ready to call Moore the Saints' statistical #2 WR just yet.

Also, I'm not exactly sure how healthy of a Colston was out there. He would still have been a little rusty, probably not 100%, and Brees had already established a tremendous rapport with Moore.

 

[mystykoekaki]

Lance is a quality, classy WR.

 

[onehung]

Lance is a quality, classy WR.

class?...class.??....I don't care about that just gimme POINTS!

 

[Louisville Slugger]

what do you see for him the rest of the season now that he's healthy ?

I think that Moore will be the #2 option for the saints.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

he may be the #2 option but that distinction may not be what it was last year. Henderson/Meachem playing important roles+healthy colston/shockey+ a healthy running game(balance)+a defense that can hold its own cutting down on possible shootouts. his piece of the pie may be considerably smaller

 

[Jambi]

Some of the Sharks are speculating Meachem is about to step up. Something to think about going forward.

 

[jon_mx]

what do you see for him the rest of the season now that he's healthy ?

I want to pick him up, but don't really have room. We can only carry 4 WR's and I have Megatron, Roddy White, Santana Moss, and Nicks. You can probably make a case for Moore over Nicks, but I really like Nicks.

 

[bakes]

What are thoughts about his prospects for this week? The one thing that makes me hesitate to start Moore against Miami is that I can see the Dolphins' trying to use a similar game plan that they used against the Colts earlier in the year - a bunch of different wildcat looks, grind out the clock, play a time of possession game and keep Brees off the field, thereby limiting Moore's opportunities. Am I overthinking this?

I do think the Saints are better than the Colts vs. the run ... so that strategy might not work quite the same way for the Dolphins this go-round. However, it still might be their best bet.

Agreed. I definitely can see Miami trying this - do they really have any other choice? trying to go toe-to-toe with NO in a shootout is suicide. Whether they can accomplish it is another thing entirely. Given that, I'm trying to figure out whether, when NO has the ball, they will try for quick shorter passes (which would benefit Moore IMO) or go with a more Indy style of 15-20 yard strikes. They have the receivers to do either.