Lance Moore (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Lance Moore could be a fantasy steal this year once Reggie Bush leaves New Orleans. Mark Ingram is not much of a threat to steal receptions, and Brees has looked Moore's way whenever Bush has been abse.t

This is one of the coolest pages FBG has for its players but I feel like it's (unfortunately) a hidden gem here: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/teams/teampage-nor-4.php

As you can see, in 2008, Bush missed weeks 8, 10, 11, 12, 16 and 17.

In 10 games with Bush, Brees averaged 616 attempts, 4,771 yards, 28.8 TDs and 7.7 Y/A per 16 games.

In 6 games without Bush, Brees averaged 667 attempts, 5,566 yards, 42.7 TDs and 8.3 Y/A per 16 games.

In 10 games with Bush, Moore averaged 67 catches, 669 yards and 4.9 TDs per 16 games.

In 6 games without Bush, Moore averaged 99 catches, 1,360 yards and 18.7 TDs per 16 games.

In 2009, Moore battled injuries most of the season while Bush was healthy most of the year. Moore did not play in any games Bush did not, although it might be worth noting that Moore's best game (6/78/1) came when Bush had just 1 catch.

In 2010, Bush missed a big chunk in the middle of the year -- all games from week 3 to week 11.

In 8 games with Bush, Brees averaged 630 attempts, 4,284 yards, 28 TDs and 6.8 Y/A per 16 games.

In 8 games without Bush, Brees averaged 686 attempts, 4,956 yards, 38 TDs and 7.2 Y/A per 16 games.

In 8 games with Bush, Moore averaged 60 catches, 610 yards and 4 touchdowns per 16 games.

In 8 games without Bush, Moore averaged 70 catches, 936 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games.

Put another way, Moore has played in 14 games the past three seasons that Bush has not. In those games, Moore has 72 catches for 978 yards and 12 TDs (82/1118/13.7 per 16 games).

 

[Raiderfan32904]

This is assuming the Saints re-sign Moore, and that looks like a good possibility. He's a pesky little overachiever and a favorite target of Brees when he needs the 3rd down conversion. I don't think he has the frame to hold up over a 16 game season. I agree that he's a good value play, considering where he'll be drafted. Still, I don't see Moore achieving those 16 game averages simply because I can't see him not being nicked up for a few games. So in that regard I am less bullish than the OP.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He's a guy I constantly under-rate.

Agreed in ppr league he's well worth a late round pick and some one that comes cheaply in dynasty leagues.

 

[johnadams]

I like Moore better than most. What I really like about him is his sneaky TD production, which is a bit unusual for players of his ilk. I wouldn't draft him expecting big things, but he certainly has WR2 level production in his range, which is fantastic for an end of draft pick.

 

[Flying Elvis]

He definitely could be a steal. But it depends entirely on where he and Bush sign. I expect his ADP to change dramatically if Bush leaves and he stays.

 

[Chase Stuart]

He definitely could be a steal. But it depends entirely on where he and Bush sign. I expect his ADP to change dramatically if Bush leaves and he stays.

That seems like the obvious frontrunner among the potential outcomes.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Shush!

 

[Tau837]

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

First year dynasty league with 25 rounds to draft I got Lance Moore at 18.03. If the aints resign him he should outperform where I drafted him at.

 

[Tchula]

Chase, I am curious on how you think Bush's departure will effect Meachem's numbers. Can he put together some consistency this year?

 

[mcd]

Chase, I am curious on how you think Bush's departure will effect Meachem's numbers. Can he put together some consistency this year?

I've got Meachem in a dynasty & just can't get excited about him, I always pick the wrong week to start him. I was reading Matt Williamsons chat over on espn this week & he said he expected Meachem to explode this season, while discussing the Saints receiving options. I like Williamson's opinions but I have my doubts.

 

[drater]

Saints have a lot of decisions to make once the CBA is signed and no lack of young RB and WR depth. Judging from needs at other positions, I'd venture my best guess that Devery Henderson and Reggie Bush are playing elsewhere this season. I'm bullish on Meachem, Moore and Pierre Thomas as the de facto 3rd down back. Based on ADP, obviously.

 

[dickey moe]

A guy who consistently seems to outperform his ranking every season. He's like a poor-man's Donald Driver, Santana Moss, et al.

 

[ThePittbully]

I like Lance a lot, but keep in mind these numbers are all in the pre-Jimmy Graham era. Lance will still get looks if he returns this year because Brees loves him, but I'd expect Graham to get a lot targets as well so I wouldn't really expect Moore's role to expand. But I've been wrong before

 

[King of the Jungle]

I like Lance a lot, but keep in mind these numbers are all in the pre-Jimmy Graham era. Lance will still get looks if he returns this year because Brees loves him, but I'd expect Graham to get a lot targets as well so I wouldn't really expect Moore's role to expand. But I've been wrong before

That is a good point. It will be interesting to see what kind of leap (if any) Graham makes this year. He certainly has a lot of hype/potential surrounding his name.

 

[baconisgood]

I like Lance a lot, but keep in mind these numbers are all in the pre-Jimmy Graham era. Lance will still get looks if he returns this year because Brees loves him, but I'd expect Graham to get a lot targets as well so I wouldn't really expect Moore's role to expand. But I've been wrong before

Graham and Shockey Combined for 72/764/8 last season. Unless Graham hits Gates/Witten/Clark level this year I don't think he will be eating into Lance Moore targets to much.Edit: David Thomas added 30/219/2 so TEs could grab 1,000/10 combined without damaging Moore.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sorry Chase but you are way undrcutting Ingram's ability. Mark Ingram can catch the football. His Heisman season he had 32/334/3TDs which for college ball and being on a non traditional trowing school like Alabama is fantastic. The last 2 seasons he has combined for 53/616/4TDs out of the backfield; that's better than many you will find.

I like Lance Moore but let's not pretend Ingram has hands like Michael Turner.

 

[baconisgood]

Sorry Chase but you are way undrcutting Ingram's ability. Mark Ingram can catch the football. His Heisman season he had 32/334/3TDs which for college ball and being on a non traditional trowing school like Alabama is fantastic. The last 2 seasons he has combined for 53/616/4TDs out of the backfield; that's better than many you will find. I like Lance Moore but let's not pretend Ingram has hands like Michael Turner.

Pierre Thomas and Ladell Betts combined for 52 receptions last season, in 2009 Thomas and Heath Evans combined for 49, McAllister and Thomas had 49 in 2008- and a handful of other backs picked up 5 receptions here or there over those years. The point isn't that Moore gets RB receptions- its that he specifically goes out for the types of patterns that Reggie Bush does which are non-RB-traditional patterns. Ingram could start and catch 50 balls and it wouldn't change Chase's position at all.

 

[Bojang0301]

Sorry Chase but you are way undrcutting Ingram's ability. Mark Ingram can catch the football. His Heisman season he had 32/334/3TDs which for college ball and being on a non traditional trowing school like Alabama is fantastic. The last 2 seasons he has combined for 53/616/4TDs out of the backfield; that's better than many you will find. I like Lance Moore but let's not pretend Ingram has hands like Michael Turner.

It's not about whether Ingram has the ability to catch the football. The correlation is that Bush would often time split wide and when that wasn't the case Moore would recieve more PT. Ingram won't be spliting out wide anytime soon methinks.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sorry Chase but you are way undrcutting Ingram's ability. Mark Ingram can catch the football. His Heisman season he had 32/334/3TDs which for college ball and being on a non traditional trowing school like Alabama is fantastic. The last 2 seasons he has combined for 53/616/4TDs out of the backfield; that's better than many you will find. I like Lance Moore but let's not pretend Ingram has hands like Michael Turner.

Pierre Thomas and Ladell Betts combined for 52 receptions last season, in 2009 Thomas and Heath Evans combined for 49, McAllister and Thomas had 49 in 2008- and a handful of other backs picked up 5 receptions here or there over those years. The point isn't that Moore gets RB receptions- its that he specifically goes out for the types of patterns that Reggie Bush does which are non-RB-traditional patterns. Ingram could start and catch 50 balls and it wouldn't change Chase's position at all.

I agree with that except I thought Chase in the OP mentioned Ingram and that he cannot catch the ball...I'm just saying I don't think that's the case. You are talking about the slot and WR3 role that Buish and Moore filled in te last sevral years.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sorry Chase but you are way undrcutting Ingram's ability. Mark Ingram can catch the football. His Heisman season he had 32/334/3TDs which for college ball and being on a non traditional trowing school like Alabama is fantastic. The last 2 seasons he has combined for 53/616/4TDs out of the backfield; that's better than many you will find. I like Lance Moore but let's not pretend Ingram has hands like Michael Turner.

It's not about whether Ingram has the ability to catch the football. The correlation is that Bush would often time split wide and when that wasn't the case Moore would recieve more PT. Ingram won't be spliting out wide anytime soon methinks.

That's probably true but I think Ingram is gonna catch a lot of balls out of the traditional RB spot.I unerstand where you all are coming from though.

 

[baconisgood]

Sorry Chase but you are way undrcutting Ingram's ability. Mark Ingram can catch the football. His Heisman season he had 32/334/3TDs which for college ball and being on a non traditional trowing school like Alabama is fantastic. The last 2 seasons he has combined for 53/616/4TDs out of the backfield; that's better than many you will find. I like Lance Moore but let's not pretend Ingram has hands like Michael Turner.

Pierre Thomas and Ladell Betts combined for 52 receptions last season, in 2009 Thomas and Heath Evans combined for 49, McAllister and Thomas had 49 in 2008- and a handful of other backs picked up 5 receptions here or there over those years. The point isn't that Moore gets RB receptions- its that he specifically goes out for the types of patterns that Reggie Bush does which are non-RB-traditional patterns. Ingram could start and catch 50 balls and it wouldn't change Chase's position at all.

I agree with that except I thought Chase in the OP mentioned Ingram and that he cannot catch the ball...I'm just saying I don't think that's the case. You are talking about the slot and WR3 role that Buish and Moore filled in te last sevral years.

I guess we just had a different interpretation of this which was in the OP

Mark Ingram is not much of a threat to steal receptions