Guys, this will be my first detailed post on the forum.
I think this forum (along with the website) is tremendous. Usually the info is very good, and the discussion is always helpful for the way I organize my teams.
I am an experienced Fantasy Footballer.
10+ years. Quite a few championships.
Normally after the first few weeks, I will observe the teams in my league, and "pounce" (term used in another post) on those owners willing to give up on players who had high value before the start of the season, but have had slow starts. A few of the topics on the board refer to this sort of strategy. My point is, I am a BIG believer in the don't over-value Week One theory. A couple of weeks is more likely to be random, than a pattern. I understand all of that.
That being said I saw everything I needed to see in last night's Arizona-San Fran game to know that Larry Fitzgerald will not be a Top 15 WR this year. He may still be a Top 20, but if he is...it's barely. Some publications had him in the top 5. I'd say over 95% had him in the top 10.
The fault is NOT his.
Fitgerald is a 6'3 Wide-out with immense talent.
So here is my argument (IN 5 POINTS).
Fitgerald's numbers are more like to be fringe Top 20 WR numbers (65-910-6) than top 8 WR numbers (85-1215-10).
I'll preface everything I say by admitting that I was not as high on Fitzgerald as many others were prior to this season. I DID have him as the #9 WR on my board, but I did NOT see a distinct difference between him and his teammate Anquan Boldin.
Here we go....
1) Matt Leinart is still learning the position at this level.
This is not to say Leinart will not have a great career. It takes most QB's 3 or 4 years to adjust to NFL defenses, and the speed at the world's elite level. It appeared blatantly obvious that Ken Wisenhunt is aware of the young QB's limitations in the gameplan. Leinart looked frazzled when faced with any pressure. He clearly held on to the ball way too long (some of the fault falls to Arizona's wideouts who seemed to be covered well for most of the game). Leinert was hesitant in his decision making, and did not throw the ball downfield (15+yards) more than 3 times in the whole game (one of which was a flea-flicker he threw into triple coverage, and another was the last Cardinal offensive play of the game- an interception).
Again, I'm not saying that Leinart was entirely to blame last night. He simply looked like a young Quaterback who was overwhelmed. San Fran's defense is improved from last year, but as a team (last year) they allowed an NFL high in points. They are NOT a top 15 NFL Defense this year with their improvements.
2) The Cardinals will rely heavily on the Run this year.
Ken Wisenhunt likes to Run the ball. I am not claiming to be a guru with this statement, but it is very true. He did it very successfully in Pittsburgh, and it is clear that he believes running is paramount to the success of his new team. This wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, if the Cardinals did not have a few of the other factors in place which I am discussing. You could have an offense that relies heavily on the Run, but produces big stats for it's Top WR (i.e. Michael Irvin). But when you combine Wisenhunt's outlook on offense with the other factors I am referring to, the outlook becomes bleak. They ran more than they passed last night in a game where they did not have the lead that often. Imagine how Wisenhunt will approach a game where the Cards have a two touchdown lead in the 1st half. I don't like that thought, if I am a Boldin or Fitzgerald owner.
Again, some may say I am jumping to conclusions on this point based on the stats of Week One. One could argue that that was Wisenhunt's plan for week one, and that it doesn't automatically mean the Cardinals offense will be more inclined to run for the rest of the year. I don't buy it. This guy is going to give James the ball at least 325 times this year. He also use Shipp and Arrington as he showed last night. The Cardinals are a run team.
3) Fitzgerals isn't necessarily his team's #1 WR.
I did not see much of a difference between Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald prior to the season. Both are very talented young playmaking WR's. Fitzgerald is a few inches taller at 6'3, but they way about the same, and while Fitzgerald is far from thin, Boldin a physical freak who ways about the same as Larry.
Their statistics, over the past 3 years, are similar.
BOLDIN
Yr Games Rec-Yds-TDS
04 10 56-623-1
05 14 102-1402-7
06 16 83-1203-4
FITZGERALD
04 16 58-780-8
05 16 103-1409-10
06 13 69-946-6
The only real difference is Touchdowns, and this was the reason why Fitzgerald was higher on most Cheatsheets prior to the season.
People cited that this difference was not random citing the different amount of Red-zone targets each received.
Yesterday: On a number (I'll guess 3)of instances in last night's game, the Cardinals operated from a One-WR set. Boldin was that WR. Fitzgerald was on the sidelines. Not once did they run that set, where Fitzgerald was on the field without Boldin.
Considering all the other points we are discussing, if Fitzgerald is NOT going to be the favorite over Boldin in the TD department his value significantly drops.
4) The Cardinals offensive line has NOT improved.
The Cards didn't drastically change their personnel up front. Wisenhunt was supposed to come in and make this a better line because of schemes and work, but it certainly did not look much improved last night. I expect the Cardinals line to be well below the league average.
This doen't help the offensive output of any offensive player, especially when combined with Leinert's inexperience.
In summation, I'D SELL ON FITZGERALD NOW.
There will be plenty of buyers. As I stated, he was a consensus Top 10 WR.
The guy that I'd target for those who can't afford to deal their #1 WR, would be Roy Williams. Williams had a quite game in week 1 minus the TD he scored.
Williams is much more capable of producing WR1 stats this year than Fitzgerald, and maybe you can catch another owner who is loy on Roy after an average week 1.
Excuse the typos as I am still at work and don't have the time to proofread(I should get docked pay for going off this sort of a Fantasy Football Tangent).
I didn't mean for this be a dissertation, it's just one owner's humble opinion.
Cheers
I think this forum (along with the website) is tremendous. Usually the info is very good, and the discussion is always helpful for the way I organize my teams.
I am an experienced Fantasy Footballer.
10+ years. Quite a few championships.
Normally after the first few weeks, I will observe the teams in my league, and "pounce" (term used in another post) on those owners willing to give up on players who had high value before the start of the season, but have had slow starts. A few of the topics on the board refer to this sort of strategy. My point is, I am a BIG believer in the don't over-value Week One theory. A couple of weeks is more likely to be random, than a pattern. I understand all of that.
That being said I saw everything I needed to see in last night's Arizona-San Fran game to know that Larry Fitzgerald will not be a Top 15 WR this year. He may still be a Top 20, but if he is...it's barely. Some publications had him in the top 5. I'd say over 95% had him in the top 10.
The fault is NOT his.
Fitgerald is a 6'3 Wide-out with immense talent.
So here is my argument (IN 5 POINTS).
Fitgerald's numbers are more like to be fringe Top 20 WR numbers (65-910-6) than top 8 WR numbers (85-1215-10).
I'll preface everything I say by admitting that I was not as high on Fitzgerald as many others were prior to this season. I DID have him as the #9 WR on my board, but I did NOT see a distinct difference between him and his teammate Anquan Boldin.
Here we go....
1) Matt Leinart is still learning the position at this level.
This is not to say Leinart will not have a great career. It takes most QB's 3 or 4 years to adjust to NFL defenses, and the speed at the world's elite level. It appeared blatantly obvious that Ken Wisenhunt is aware of the young QB's limitations in the gameplan. Leinart looked frazzled when faced with any pressure. He clearly held on to the ball way too long (some of the fault falls to Arizona's wideouts who seemed to be covered well for most of the game). Leinert was hesitant in his decision making, and did not throw the ball downfield (15+yards) more than 3 times in the whole game (one of which was a flea-flicker he threw into triple coverage, and another was the last Cardinal offensive play of the game- an interception).
Again, I'm not saying that Leinart was entirely to blame last night. He simply looked like a young Quaterback who was overwhelmed. San Fran's defense is improved from last year, but as a team (last year) they allowed an NFL high in points. They are NOT a top 15 NFL Defense this year with their improvements.
2) The Cardinals will rely heavily on the Run this year.
Ken Wisenhunt likes to Run the ball. I am not claiming to be a guru with this statement, but it is very true. He did it very successfully in Pittsburgh, and it is clear that he believes running is paramount to the success of his new team. This wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, if the Cardinals did not have a few of the other factors in place which I am discussing. You could have an offense that relies heavily on the Run, but produces big stats for it's Top WR (i.e. Michael Irvin). But when you combine Wisenhunt's outlook on offense with the other factors I am referring to, the outlook becomes bleak. They ran more than they passed last night in a game where they did not have the lead that often. Imagine how Wisenhunt will approach a game where the Cards have a two touchdown lead in the 1st half. I don't like that thought, if I am a Boldin or Fitzgerald owner.
Again, some may say I am jumping to conclusions on this point based on the stats of Week One. One could argue that that was Wisenhunt's plan for week one, and that it doesn't automatically mean the Cardinals offense will be more inclined to run for the rest of the year. I don't buy it. This guy is going to give James the ball at least 325 times this year. He also use Shipp and Arrington as he showed last night. The Cardinals are a run team.
3) Fitzgerals isn't necessarily his team's #1 WR.
I did not see much of a difference between Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald prior to the season. Both are very talented young playmaking WR's. Fitzgerald is a few inches taller at 6'3, but they way about the same, and while Fitzgerald is far from thin, Boldin a physical freak who ways about the same as Larry.
Their statistics, over the past 3 years, are similar.
BOLDIN
Yr Games Rec-Yds-TDS
04 10 56-623-1
05 14 102-1402-7
06 16 83-1203-4
FITZGERALD
04 16 58-780-8
05 16 103-1409-10
06 13 69-946-6
The only real difference is Touchdowns, and this was the reason why Fitzgerald was higher on most Cheatsheets prior to the season.
People cited that this difference was not random citing the different amount of Red-zone targets each received.
Yesterday: On a number (I'll guess 3)of instances in last night's game, the Cardinals operated from a One-WR set. Boldin was that WR. Fitzgerald was on the sidelines. Not once did they run that set, where Fitzgerald was on the field without Boldin.
Considering all the other points we are discussing, if Fitzgerald is NOT going to be the favorite over Boldin in the TD department his value significantly drops.
4) The Cardinals offensive line has NOT improved.
The Cards didn't drastically change their personnel up front. Wisenhunt was supposed to come in and make this a better line because of schemes and work, but it certainly did not look much improved last night. I expect the Cardinals line to be well below the league average.
This doen't help the offensive output of any offensive player, especially when combined with Leinert's inexperience.
In summation, I'D SELL ON FITZGERALD NOW.
There will be plenty of buyers. As I stated, he was a consensus Top 10 WR.
The guy that I'd target for those who can't afford to deal their #1 WR, would be Roy Williams. Williams had a quite game in week 1 minus the TD he scored.
Williams is much more capable of producing WR1 stats this year than Fitzgerald, and maybe you can catch another owner who is loy on Roy after an average week 1.
Excuse the typos as I am still at work and don't have the time to proofread(I should get docked pay for going off this sort of a Fantasy Football Tangent).
I didn't mean for this be a dissertation, it's just one owner's humble opinion.
Cheers
I agree with pretty much everything except for the Oline issue. The Oline is better than they were last year. Not saying they are good at all just saying they are better, especially at run blocking.Quan is the guy to have here. Was some talk about his move to Z during the offseason.. the writing was on the wall then.2 WRs can co-exist and both be viable WR1s but it is rare.. and takes a special offense with all the stars lining up for that to happen. Ward and Plax were a good combination and even the chin changed gears somewhat in thier game plans to take advantage of that but I dont see somthing similar happening in AZ thisyear. Maybe later on in the season they will open up the offense more. For now I agree they are focused on establishing ball control.
Arizona is rarely going to be able to pull off run/run/pass as they did the other night. In fact few teams in the league are even capable of it.I see it as more of a fluke game.
