There has been much debate here in the Shark Pool regarding the Chiefs’ off season and ensuing preseason performance. Additionally, most experts and fantasy junkies have come to a general consensus that for 2006, there are three “top tier” running backs: Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson.
What many of us can’t seem to agree on is who should rank #1 overall? FBG’s has had Johnson in the top slot since the first rankings were released back in late May. Many other purveyors of fantasy knowledge seem to agree, helping LJ earn the top ADP slot heading into the season.
While I’ve always respected the knowledge of Dodds and Bryant, I can’t come to grips with this ranking.
Here is a list of changes that have occurred for the Chiefs this off season, and my take on their impact on the Chiefs’ offense:
Vermeil retires
Negative - Herm Edwards is not the offensive guru that Vermeil was, and it’s only reasonable to expect some drop off in offense this season.
Al Saunders goes to Washington
Big Negative – I’ve heard the argument that Mike Solari is going to step in and make a seamless transition from OL Coach to OC. With 18 years NFL experience and zero time spent as an OC, I find this a deplorable statement. Al Saunders worked as WR’s coach and Assistant Head Coach on a Super Bowl winning team in St. Louis, then coached KC’s offense to a #1 rank in yards or scoring for four straight seasons. While Solari may keep the structure of the offense intact, I find it hard to believe that there won’t be any drop off in the offense as Solari learns the nuances of play calling, personnel changes and overall game management.
Tony Richardson goes to Minnesota
Negative – The company line here is that Richardson only played about a third of KC’s possessions last year, and LJ was a beast with or without T Rich. I’ll acknowledge that, but what I can’t dismiss is his locker room presence. His off field abilities are being ignored by the propeller heads that only look at stats. While I’d be willing to ignore losing T Rich if that was KC’s only loss, it’s far from it.
Priest Holmes in limbo
Neutral to Negative - Johnson being the clear #1 through camp is a plus as he’s clearly getting the practice reps with the first team. Frankly though, does he really benefit from this? A bigger issue here is the fact that defensive coordinators all over the league are focusing their efforts on stopping Johnson. This means Johnson will no longer be an unknown, benefiting from some margin of surprise, as D coordinators have watched LJ tape all off season, know him better and will key on his tendencies. Last year, DC’s focused during the off season on stopping Holmes, and didn’t have exorbitant amounts of time to focus on the nuances for slowing down Johnson once the regular season grind was in full force. Unfortunately for Johnson, now they have.
Todd Collins goes to Washington
Big Negative – Big Negative? Pass the crack pipe! Hardly…With the losses to the KC offensive line (yet to be addressed), Trent Green may turn back into TrINT Green from 2001 when he tossed 24 INT’s and only 17 TD’s as he ran for his life. This preseason, Green has clearly been roughed up a bit more than he’s used to. If the unthinkable happens and Green actually gets injured (he’s 36, no spring chicken), KC’s backup QB situation is not pleasant. Damon Huard has earned six starts in his illustrious 10 year NFL career, racking up a whopping 9 TD’s in those 10 seasons. In fact, Huard hasn’t tossed a TD pass since 2000 and has one (1) pass attempt since 2001. While Collins was no Montana, he knew the KC offense well and saw some action over the years (though sparingly).
John Welbourn retires
Negative – While I don’t view this as a critical loss, Welbourn was a starter for the much heralded KC offensive line last year (albeit only 9 games after getting suspended).
Willie Roaf retires
Major Negative - To quote Jason Wood from his Larry Johnson spotlight, “Willie Roaf has announced plans to retire. If he's being honest, this is a major blow to the Chiefs offensive line and is cause enough to bump LJ down behind Tomlinson and Alexander.” While Wood tempers his comments a bit (I’m not going to post $ content in its entirety) stating that he feels Roaf will return, I think that’s a significant bet. The fact is that Roaf is an unknown. You discount players because of factors such as this, not overlook or ignore them. Roaf has been spreading the news on national sports talk radio that he has no plans to return for 2006. If he’s posturing only for the benefit of skipping camp, why tell the national media that he won’t return? Why not just keep ignoring teammates and the media and show up in the last week of camp?
Defense should be improved
Positive - Peterson acquires Ty Law, hires Herm Edwards to improve D and goes “D” crazy in the draft. While Tamba Hali hasn’t done squat in camp, KC’s D should be better than last year’s D. If this is the case, the offense may have a shorter field to work with and benefit from more possessions. I personally think the D will suck yet again, but we’ll see.
Other points to consider:
According to FBG’s, KC is presented with the 3rd most difficult rushing schedule in the league with 7 weeks categorized as tough, and only 2 easy matchups. Additionally, the Chief’s rushing schedule exhibits the biggest change of any team’s when comparing the difficulty of last year’s vs. this year’s. In other words, no other team’s rushing schedule got more difficult from last year’s to this year’s than KC’s. This simply can’t be good if we are to trust/consider FBG’s research…
LaDainian Tomlinson has finished as the #3 RB for four straight seasons. While this may not be a good reason to put him atop your rankings, it seems logical to use the first pick in the draft on someone that you can count on to finish near the top high year in and year out. Call it the Peyton Manning theory. While Manning has never finished as the #1 QB in his illustrious career, he hasn’t finished outside of the top 4 since 1999. Trying to pick THE top QB seems to be much more challenging than picking Manning to finish top 3 and having that work out. The first pick in the draft should be as near a sure thing as possible. Both Manning and Tomlinson exhibit the qualities that you want in your “sure thing” picks at their relative positions, with low variance in their pre and post season ranks.
Additionally, San Diego returns 21 of 22 starters from last year. While Brees was a big loss, that’s ONE big loss for Tomlinson vs. six to eight for Johnson, depending on which you’ll accept.
Alternatively, Shaun Alexander also must be considered for the 1 overall pick. His performance last year was nothing short of amazing, making him the top RB in fantasy football for two years in a row. Alexander hasn’t finished out of the top 6 fantasy backs in five seasons. That’s impressive. Downside concerns here are the loss of Hutchison, workload the past three seasons and the fact that he “got paid.”
Summary-
Johnson has the following “negatives” working against him in 2006:
1. Vermeil retires - Negative
2. Al Saunders goes to Washington – Big Negative
3. Tony Richardson goes to Minnesota – Negative
4. Todd Collins to Washington - Big Negative
5. John Welbourn retires - Negative
6. Willie Roaf retires – “Major” Negative - *And reason ALONE to drop LJ to 3 per Jason Wood
7. Strength of Schedule and change in schedule difficulty among worst in NFL - Big Negative
Tomlinson is as much of a sure thing as you’ll get at RB in the NFL. He’s finished in the top three for four straight years, and has little reason (one) not to pull it off again. He’s my number one.
Alexander’s record speaks for itself. If you believe that the loss of Hutch and his new contract are reasons enough to put Alexander behind LT, I can’t argue. I think Alexander is arguably the most boring bad ### fantasy back I’ve ever seen, but he finds a way to win a lot of fantasy owners a lot of jack every year. He’s my number two.
Johnson is a beast. He runs mad as hell and he’s got major wheels for a back his size. I personally enjoy watching Johnson more than any of the “big three.” That said there are so many negatives surrounding him it simply seems like a sucker bet to take him above the other two backs. He may very well pull it off, but he’s running into a headwind that the other backs just don’t seem to have. Add that to the fact that LT and SA have done it for years, I have to put Johnson as my number three.
Even with the questions surrounding him, I would NOT let him slip below three however.
One final point…
To use an example from investing, consider this:
I’ll offer to give you:
A. Somewhere between $275 and $325
B. $300 guaranteed
Which would you choose?
The answer is what makes Manning the top picked QB and Tomlinson the top picked RB season after season. While not a perfect correlation to fantasy football, you should always take option B. Why? The average expected return for either gift is $300, ($325 + $275 / 2 = $300) and $300 = $300, meaning both yield the same expected return. One however is risk free while the other clearly isn’t. If you are rational, you should always take the lower risk investment to the higher risk investment if both yield the same average expected return.
You may argue that Tomlinson, Alexander and Johnson don’t yield the same expected fantasy points for the upcoming season, but most seem to have them close. You may feel Johnson offers tremendous upside the others don't possess. With all the negatives stacked in his path to fantasy greatness, I simply can’t agree.
What many of us can’t seem to agree on is who should rank #1 overall? FBG’s has had Johnson in the top slot since the first rankings were released back in late May. Many other purveyors of fantasy knowledge seem to agree, helping LJ earn the top ADP slot heading into the season.
While I’ve always respected the knowledge of Dodds and Bryant, I can’t come to grips with this ranking.
Here is a list of changes that have occurred for the Chiefs this off season, and my take on their impact on the Chiefs’ offense:
Vermeil retires
Negative - Herm Edwards is not the offensive guru that Vermeil was, and it’s only reasonable to expect some drop off in offense this season.
Al Saunders goes to Washington
Big Negative – I’ve heard the argument that Mike Solari is going to step in and make a seamless transition from OL Coach to OC. With 18 years NFL experience and zero time spent as an OC, I find this a deplorable statement. Al Saunders worked as WR’s coach and Assistant Head Coach on a Super Bowl winning team in St. Louis, then coached KC’s offense to a #1 rank in yards or scoring for four straight seasons. While Solari may keep the structure of the offense intact, I find it hard to believe that there won’t be any drop off in the offense as Solari learns the nuances of play calling, personnel changes and overall game management.
Tony Richardson goes to Minnesota
Negative – The company line here is that Richardson only played about a third of KC’s possessions last year, and LJ was a beast with or without T Rich. I’ll acknowledge that, but what I can’t dismiss is his locker room presence. His off field abilities are being ignored by the propeller heads that only look at stats. While I’d be willing to ignore losing T Rich if that was KC’s only loss, it’s far from it.
Priest Holmes in limbo
Neutral to Negative - Johnson being the clear #1 through camp is a plus as he’s clearly getting the practice reps with the first team. Frankly though, does he really benefit from this? A bigger issue here is the fact that defensive coordinators all over the league are focusing their efforts on stopping Johnson. This means Johnson will no longer be an unknown, benefiting from some margin of surprise, as D coordinators have watched LJ tape all off season, know him better and will key on his tendencies. Last year, DC’s focused during the off season on stopping Holmes, and didn’t have exorbitant amounts of time to focus on the nuances for slowing down Johnson once the regular season grind was in full force. Unfortunately for Johnson, now they have.
Todd Collins goes to Washington
Big Negative – Big Negative? Pass the crack pipe! Hardly…With the losses to the KC offensive line (yet to be addressed), Trent Green may turn back into TrINT Green from 2001 when he tossed 24 INT’s and only 17 TD’s as he ran for his life. This preseason, Green has clearly been roughed up a bit more than he’s used to. If the unthinkable happens and Green actually gets injured (he’s 36, no spring chicken), KC’s backup QB situation is not pleasant. Damon Huard has earned six starts in his illustrious 10 year NFL career, racking up a whopping 9 TD’s in those 10 seasons. In fact, Huard hasn’t tossed a TD pass since 2000 and has one (1) pass attempt since 2001. While Collins was no Montana, he knew the KC offense well and saw some action over the years (though sparingly).
John Welbourn retires
Negative – While I don’t view this as a critical loss, Welbourn was a starter for the much heralded KC offensive line last year (albeit only 9 games after getting suspended).
Willie Roaf retires
Major Negative - To quote Jason Wood from his Larry Johnson spotlight, “Willie Roaf has announced plans to retire. If he's being honest, this is a major blow to the Chiefs offensive line and is cause enough to bump LJ down behind Tomlinson and Alexander.” While Wood tempers his comments a bit (I’m not going to post $ content in its entirety) stating that he feels Roaf will return, I think that’s a significant bet. The fact is that Roaf is an unknown. You discount players because of factors such as this, not overlook or ignore them. Roaf has been spreading the news on national sports talk radio that he has no plans to return for 2006. If he’s posturing only for the benefit of skipping camp, why tell the national media that he won’t return? Why not just keep ignoring teammates and the media and show up in the last week of camp?
Defense should be improved
Positive - Peterson acquires Ty Law, hires Herm Edwards to improve D and goes “D” crazy in the draft. While Tamba Hali hasn’t done squat in camp, KC’s D should be better than last year’s D. If this is the case, the offense may have a shorter field to work with and benefit from more possessions. I personally think the D will suck yet again, but we’ll see.
Other points to consider:
According to FBG’s, KC is presented with the 3rd most difficult rushing schedule in the league with 7 weeks categorized as tough, and only 2 easy matchups. Additionally, the Chief’s rushing schedule exhibits the biggest change of any team’s when comparing the difficulty of last year’s vs. this year’s. In other words, no other team’s rushing schedule got more difficult from last year’s to this year’s than KC’s. This simply can’t be good if we are to trust/consider FBG’s research…
LaDainian Tomlinson has finished as the #3 RB for four straight seasons. While this may not be a good reason to put him atop your rankings, it seems logical to use the first pick in the draft on someone that you can count on to finish near the top high year in and year out. Call it the Peyton Manning theory. While Manning has never finished as the #1 QB in his illustrious career, he hasn’t finished outside of the top 4 since 1999. Trying to pick THE top QB seems to be much more challenging than picking Manning to finish top 3 and having that work out. The first pick in the draft should be as near a sure thing as possible. Both Manning and Tomlinson exhibit the qualities that you want in your “sure thing” picks at their relative positions, with low variance in their pre and post season ranks.
Additionally, San Diego returns 21 of 22 starters from last year. While Brees was a big loss, that’s ONE big loss for Tomlinson vs. six to eight for Johnson, depending on which you’ll accept.
Alternatively, Shaun Alexander also must be considered for the 1 overall pick. His performance last year was nothing short of amazing, making him the top RB in fantasy football for two years in a row. Alexander hasn’t finished out of the top 6 fantasy backs in five seasons. That’s impressive. Downside concerns here are the loss of Hutchison, workload the past three seasons and the fact that he “got paid.”
Summary-
Johnson has the following “negatives” working against him in 2006:
1. Vermeil retires - Negative
2. Al Saunders goes to Washington – Big Negative
3. Tony Richardson goes to Minnesota – Negative
4. Todd Collins to Washington - Big Negative
5. John Welbourn retires - Negative
6. Willie Roaf retires – “Major” Negative - *And reason ALONE to drop LJ to 3 per Jason Wood
7. Strength of Schedule and change in schedule difficulty among worst in NFL - Big Negative
Tomlinson is as much of a sure thing as you’ll get at RB in the NFL. He’s finished in the top three for four straight years, and has little reason (one) not to pull it off again. He’s my number one.
Alexander’s record speaks for itself. If you believe that the loss of Hutch and his new contract are reasons enough to put Alexander behind LT, I can’t argue. I think Alexander is arguably the most boring bad ### fantasy back I’ve ever seen, but he finds a way to win a lot of fantasy owners a lot of jack every year. He’s my number two.
Johnson is a beast. He runs mad as hell and he’s got major wheels for a back his size. I personally enjoy watching Johnson more than any of the “big three.” That said there are so many negatives surrounding him it simply seems like a sucker bet to take him above the other two backs. He may very well pull it off, but he’s running into a headwind that the other backs just don’t seem to have. Add that to the fact that LT and SA have done it for years, I have to put Johnson as my number three.
Even with the questions surrounding him, I would NOT let him slip below three however.
One final point…
To use an example from investing, consider this:
I’ll offer to give you:
A. Somewhere between $275 and $325
B. $300 guaranteed
Which would you choose?
The answer is what makes Manning the top picked QB and Tomlinson the top picked RB season after season. While not a perfect correlation to fantasy football, you should always take option B. Why? The average expected return for either gift is $300, ($325 + $275 / 2 = $300) and $300 = $300, meaning both yield the same expected return. One however is risk free while the other clearly isn’t. If you are rational, you should always take the lower risk investment to the higher risk investment if both yield the same average expected return.
You may argue that Tomlinson, Alexander and Johnson don’t yield the same expected fantasy points for the upcoming season, but most seem to have them close. You may feel Johnson offers tremendous upside the others don't possess. With all the negatives stacked in his path to fantasy greatness, I simply can’t agree.
Last edited by a moderator:
all night.....
) and those are the type of carries that allowed Curtis Martin to accumlate the yards he did for the Jets. Johnson will be the main thrust of the Chiefs offense this year and he will not let his owners down.
good posting! LT failed to reach just 76 yards rushing in 9 different games last year..didn't score a TD in 4consecutive games during nov-dec, i.e., fantasy playoff time..he wears down badly at the end of every season, not to mention he gets things in bunches, meaning he will go for 180 yards and 3 td's one week, and then record just 68 yards and no tds the next..his reception totals dropped significantly last year, is that a trend or not? this is just an example, but every other pick at the top of the heap, does have question marks.. SA is going to miss Hutchinson, without a doubt.. the team losing in the SB has failed to make it to the playoffs the followin year, is it Seattles's turn to do the same? also, like you said, SA had a career year in '05, he got a big contract..now let's see how he does..some positives for LJ: weak schedule with 2 games vs. the Raiders, Az., st louis, sf, houston..if he avg's 150 per contest in just these 6 games, it'll leave him with 900 yards with 10 games to go..so if he totals a miniscule 600 yards rushing in those ten remaining contests ( just 60 per game), he'll still wind up with 1500 rushing yards on the season..and that's conservative...they won't miss Roaf as much as people think, they will use T. Gonzalez to chip the DT and help in blocking, plus they have Jason Dunn, which give the Chiefs perhaps the best blocking tandem of TE's in the NFL..I guess people are looking at LJ and thinking he is super-human and will go for 2400 yards and 30 tds, and they're a little annoyed to find out that it's not going to happen.. 
STLMIAOAKDEN@CLEBAL (playoff week 1)SD (playoff week 2)@OAK (fantasy SB. Send the Raiders a thank you card)i'll take it.
Den, Balt, SD are all top 7-8 run defenses. Ya, your gold if you get past Balt and then SD but those are no layups.
Look, your thread is nonsense because there are 100 others like it that address these issues. That's what the search function is for, although at the time you posted it, some of them could be found on the first freakin page. Your arguments were made on speculation. Mine were based on facts. I've shown how Welbourn isn't a vital piece of the puzzle, how LJ runs without Roaf/T.rich, how the KC running game has fared in the past without the "genius" of Saunders/Vermiel, etc....But yeah, I guess since the majority of people pick someone besides LJ, that makes them automatically correct. We all know that if enough people believe something...it becomes fact. Just go to wikipedia and see for yourself!Whitlock is a joke, if you're looking for real football info btw. The guy writes for entertainment value. That's why he's been pushing Jeff George for the last decade. I've been reading the guys articles forever. He has his moments, but a football guru, he is not.
