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Larry Johnson '06 = Tatum Bell '05 (1 Viewer)

BoltBacker

Footballguy
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell and yet so many people consider Johnson a good cantidate for the #1 pick in 2006?

 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell . . .
I don't agree with this. Bell had under 400 yards rushing in 2004. LJ has 1500+ yards rushing this year.I'd say that LJ has proven a lot more than Bell ever has.

 

jurb26

Footballguy
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell and yet so many people consider Johnson a good cantidate for the #1 pick in 2006?
Not even close, please explain for the rest of us.
 

losgalacticos

Footballguy
Tatum Bell was a second round pick that the draft experts had pegged much later. Denver reached (nobody seems to remember this). Not enough strength. LJ was a late 1st round pick that could have gone higher in the 1st round, but there is always buzz about PennState backs being busts, and LJ had only done well for one year. Without that backdrop, LJ would have neen a top 10 pick.LJ is just about as fast, has more moves, and is stronger.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell . . .
I don't agree with this. Bell had under 400 yards rushing in 2004. LJ has 1500+ yards rushing this year.I'd say that LJ has proven a lot more than Bell ever has.
True, he has proven more but he still has a lot more "?"s surrounding him;1 - Priest? Retires? Returns? Split carries? I think Priest has a much higher chance to cut into LJ's carries than we thought Anderson did cutting into Bells.

2 - Vermiel? Is he returning next season? The football world was shocked when he quit STL and it wouldn't be nearly as surprising to me if left after this season. His team(with the exception of LJ) is getting older and Vermiel himself is how old? Shanny was a lock coming back, Vermiel is much less so.

3 - OL. That's the real superstar of the KC team and how much longer can they play at this level? Once the KC line goes this teams chances of making any noise in the playoffs goes with them. The line may not have been able to lead KC to the playoffs THIS year even playing as well as they have!

4 - QB. I know plenty of people are down on Green but who else do they have? Isn't Green going to be 36yo by the start of the season? It's kind of a recurring theme with this team but a lot of these guys skill level is going to drop fast. Plummer was a much more managable 30yo at the start of this season.

5 - Receivers. I think Gonzales has already lost a step in receiving(still at a high level in blocking though). He has a chronic problem with his foot that is never going to be 100%. Even Kennison will be 33 next year which is old for a WR. This was a similar question with the DEN offense so about equal here.

While LJ is just entering his prime he's about the only one in that offense. Everyone else seems to be nearing the end of the road and who's to say all those guys in their mid 30's will be able to maintain this level of play and not be more prone to injury due to age and wear and tear? If it was just a few players that were getting old it wouldn't make that big a difference but across the board they're ALL old and getting further from being a Super Bowl contender not closer.

 

jurb26

Footballguy
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell . . .
I don't agree with this. Bell had under 400 yards rushing in 2004. LJ has 1500+ yards rushing this year.I'd say that LJ has proven a lot more than Bell ever has.
True, he has proven more but he still has a lot more "?"s surrounding him;1 - Priest? Retires? Returns? Split carries? I think Priest has a much higher chance to cut into LJ's carries than we thought Anderson did cutting into Bells.

2 - Vermiel? Is he returning next season? The football world was shocked when he quit STL and it wouldn't be nearly as surprising to me if left after this season. His team(with the exception of LJ) is getting older and Vermiel himself is how old? Shanny was a lock coming back, Vermiel is much less so.

3 - OL. That's the real superstar of the KC team and how much longer can they play at this level? Once the KC line goes this teams chances of making any noise in the playoffs goes with them. The line may not have been able to lead KC to the playoffs THIS year even playing as well as they have!

4 - QB. I know plenty of people are down on Green but who else do they have? Isn't Green going to be 36yo by the start of the season? It's kind of a recurring theme with this team but a lot of these guys skill level is going to drop fast. Plummer was a much more managable 30yo at the start of this season.

5 - Receivers. I think Gonzales has already lost a step in receiving(still at a high level in blocking though). He has a chronic problem with his foot that is never going to be 100%. Even Kennison will be 33 next year which is old for a WR. This was a similar question with the DEN offense so about equal here.

While LJ is just entering his prime he's about the only one in that offense. Everyone else seems to be nearing the end of the road and who's to say all those guys in their mid 30's will be able to maintain this level of play and not be more prone to injury due to age and wear and tear? If it was just a few players that were getting old it wouldn't make that big a difference but across the board they're ALL old and getting further from being a Super Bowl contender not closer.
These are all fair points. I only happen to be worried about 2 of them however. Vermiel sayiing good bye could be a huge blow. You simply cannot overlook his success in regards to FF RBs over the past 6 years or so. It should be noted that Faulk had his best 2 years just prior to Vermiel leaving St.L in the team/O he built but Martz ran. Could this hapen in KC as well? I have some doubts and they spawn from the 2nd point of yours I agree with. The KC Oline, as dominante as they are, has got to be coming close to a windign down phase here. Roaf and Shields are getting old. How much longer can they play like one of the best Olines in the history of football?
 

Winston Smith

Footballguy
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell . . .
I don't agree with this. Bell had under 400 yards rushing in 2004. LJ has 1500+ yards rushing this year.I'd say that LJ has proven a lot more than Bell ever has.
True, he has proven more but he still has a lot more "?"s surrounding him;1 - Priest? Retires? Returns? Split carries? I think Priest has a much higher chance to cut into LJ's carries than we thought Anderson did cutting into Bells.

2 - Vermiel? Is he returning next season? The football world was shocked when he quit STL and it wouldn't be nearly as surprising to me if left after this season. His team(with the exception of LJ) is getting older and Vermiel himself is how old? Shanny was a lock coming back, Vermiel is much less so.

3 - OL. That's the real superstar of the KC team and how much longer can they play at this level? Once the KC line goes this teams chances of making any noise in the playoffs goes with them. The line may not have been able to lead KC to the playoffs THIS year even playing as well as they have!

4 - QB. I know plenty of people are down on Green but who else do they have? Isn't Green going to be 36yo by the start of the season? It's kind of a recurring theme with this team but a lot of these guys skill level is going to drop fast. Plummer was a much more managable 30yo at the start of this season.

5 - Receivers. I think Gonzales has already lost a step in receiving(still at a high level in blocking though). He has a chronic problem with his foot that is never going to be 100%. Even Kennison will be 33 next year which is old for a WR. This was a similar question with the DEN offense so about equal here.

While LJ is just entering his prime he's about the only one in that offense. Everyone else seems to be nearing the end of the road and who's to say all those guys in their mid 30's will be able to maintain this level of play and not be more prone to injury due to age and wear and tear? If it was just a few players that were getting old it wouldn't make that big a difference but across the board they're ALL old and getting further from being a Super Bowl contender not closer.
1. I think when anyone refers to LJ being the #1 pick next year, it is based on the assumption that Holmes retires. Should he return, then I think people would obviously reconsider. However, my money is on Holmes hanging them up.2. This is a consideration; however, even with a coaching change, it is VERY difficult to imagine that said new coach would come in and significantly alter their approach on offense, given the HUGE amount of success it has enjoyed in the past few seasons.

3. As long as everyone comes back, there is really little basis to think that the O-Line play is going to suffer in any meaningful way.

4. I don't think this is a concern. Green wasn't great this year, but LJ still had his ridiculous numbers.

5. KC has NEVER really had much at WR. Gonzalez's yardage has been there this year, just not the TD. I think that's a bit of an aberration, and we'll see him grab 7-8 TD again next year. With all that said, I don't see how this will significantly affect LJ if he is the full time starter next year.

Nonetheless, good for you for challenging what seems to be the early CW that makes LJ the #1 overall pick next year.

 
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Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
True, he has proven more but he still has a lot more "?"s surrounding him;
He does have more questions than the other top RBs (SA, LT, Edge), but I don't think he has more questions than Bell did.In any event, the points you raise are all good ones.
 

Routilla

Footballguy
IF KC did not have a draft or an off-season to upgrade their team needs then I might put some merit into the list of concerns. However, they will draft and acquire needs in the off-season and so this thread is virtually useless right now. At the least the title should be changed. Bell and LJ should not be mentioned in the same sentence. :popcorn:

 

Balco

Footballguy
Horrible comparison. Tatum Bell was a big play running back last year, Larry Johnson was a workhorse who put together an unbelievable string of 100 yard games.

 

Helm

Fruitcake
They aren't even close to being the same type of back. Put the qualities of Bell and Anderson together and you have a closer back to compare to LJ.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
Unlike Edge and SA, we at least know for 99.9% certain what team LJ will play for.Johnson has now started 13 NFL games and put up the following:Total yards, Total TD174/2123/2151/2122/2161/2155/2178/0217/2172/1149/2171/3184/2179/22136/24Extrapolated to 16 games, that would give Johnson 2641 total yards, 30 TD, and 444 fantasy points. IIRC, the single season record for a RB is 375 points.If the Chiefs leave everything the same and Holmes either retires or comes back in a part time (limited) role, LJ should be easily be the #1 pick.

 

Synthesizer

Footballguy
You listed 5 question marks surrounding L.Johnson and maybe 1 of them is similar to the situation that T.Bell was in entering this year. LJ has put up almost 2000 yards and 18 TDs while starting only 8 games.The comparison to Tater has got to be a joke. Who put you up to this??

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
If the Chiefs leave everything the same and Holmes either retires or comes back in a part time (limited) role,
Yeah, that's kind of the point. I'm not so sure those happen. I think his situation next year won't be as favorable as they are this season.I'm less sure those happen than everyone seemed to be sure Bell would get a majority of the carries THIS season for DEN right up until preseason.

Mr Yudkin, I value your opinion a great deal but did you honestly just type; "Extrapolated to 16 games, that would give..."????

 

Tibereas

Footballguy
I will miss all of you angry little men this offseason! Where will I turn to for all of the needless bickering. :bye:

 

ArcticEdge

Footballguy
Larry Johnson is a man among boys. He is easily the number one pick in next years draft. He puts up monster stats every game, very durable, the clear cut starter now, (Priest will be 33) and does another coach matter? I don't think so. If you get the number one pick next year, take LJ and count on 15 - 30 points a game.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
If the Chiefs leave everything the same and Holmes either retires or comes back in a part time (limited) role,
Yeah, that's kind of the point. I'm not so sure those happen. I think his situation next year won't be as favorable as they are this season.I'm less sure those happen than everyone seemed to be sure Bell would get a majority of the carries THIS season for DEN right up until preseason.

Mr Yudkin, I value your opinion a great deal but did you honestly just type; "Extrapolated to 16 games, that would give..."????
As for expanding to 16 games, I don't think it's that much of a stretch given he started out with 13 games as a sample size. I nornally don't approve of doing that either, but that's normally when someone argues that PLAY X averaged 150 yards over 3 games so over a full season he would have 2400 yards.As for the Chiefs situation, we will know much more by the time drafts roll around--just as we should know what teams Edge and SA will be playing for. So IMO there are 3 stud RB that have some questionmarks.

 

Gargoylez

Footballguy
ANY RB behind Kansas City's line will be a Fantasy Football stud. Whether it will be Holmes, LJ or joe joe bagadonuts.

 

P Boy

Footballguy
Unlike Edge and SA, we at least know for 99.9% certain what team LJ will play for.

Johnson has now started 13 NFL games and put up the following:

Total yards, Total TD

174/2

123/2

151/2

122/2

161/2

155/2

178/0

217/2

172/1

149/2

171/3

184/2

179/2

2136/24

Extrapolated to 16 games, that would give Johnson 2641 total yards, 30 TD, and 444 fantasy points.  IIRC, the single season record for a RB is 375 points.

If the Chiefs leave everything the same and Holmes either retires or comes back in a part time (limited) role, LJ should be easily be the #1 pick.
:goodposting: LOL @ comparing Johnson & Bell.

Bell has a HC who has made absolutely no secret that he feels Bell needs to have his touches limited to be effective. Look for Dayne to step in as the RBBC next year if Anderson's age/injuries/substance abuse issues kick in - Shanahan seems to have a decent trust of Dayne.

Johnson right now is a better RB than a healthy Holmes - and that is a significant statement.

 
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David Yudkin

Footballguy
To further pile on the love for LJ, he now has 30 career TD in 31 games played. However, he's only had 14 games with 11 or more carries. He's had 504 career touches, giving him a TD every 16.8 touches. That's beyond impressive.Alexander has scored once every 19.0 touches. Holmes in KC has scored once every 18.3 touches. So Johnson is up there--not quite Mike Vrabel up there (8 career touches [regular and post-season], 8 career TD)--but still excepetional.

 

SoloMatisse

Footballguy
Comparing Tatum Bell to Larry Johnson, in any forum under any circumstances, is ground for dismissal as far as Im concerned...and I'll never get this 30 seconds of my life back.....ever.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
At least compare him to a comparable back like McGahee.
I'm comparing the number of ?'s in his situation next year to the ?'s in Bell's situation last season(who just about everyone overlooked until August last year), not the RB's style, height, weight, or favorite color.
 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell and yet so many people consider Johnson a good cantidate for the #1 pick in 2006?
This has got to be :fishing: Larry Johnson has more than 1,500 yards rushing and 18 TDs this season despite sharing time for part of the year with Priest. He's currently 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards, 3rd in TDs and 3rd in yards from scrimmage. LJ already = STUD.

 

DropKick

Footballguy
The only conceivable comparison between LJ and Bell is that the odds of Holmes coming back and stealing LJ's thunder is roughly that of Terrell Davis coming back and stealing Bell's thunder.Oh wait... Bell didn't have any thunder to steal coming into 2005. Never mind!

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell . . .
I don't agree with this. Bell had under 400 yards rushing in 2004. LJ has 1500+ yards rushing this year.I'd say that LJ has proven a lot more than Bell ever has.
True, he has proven more but he still has a lot more "?"s surrounding him;1 - Priest? Retires? Returns? Split carries? I think Priest has a much higher chance to cut into LJ's carries than we thought Anderson did cutting into Bells.

2 - Vermiel? Is he returning next season? The football world was shocked when he quit STL and it wouldn't be nearly as surprising to me if left after this season. His team(with the exception of LJ) is getting older and Vermiel himself is how old? Shanny was a lock coming back, Vermiel is much less so.

3 - OL. That's the real superstar of the KC team and how much longer can they play at this level? Once the KC line goes this teams chances of making any noise in the playoffs goes with them. The line may not have been able to lead KC to the playoffs THIS year even playing as well as they have!

4 - QB. I know plenty of people are down on Green but who else do they have? Isn't Green going to be 36yo by the start of the season? It's kind of a recurring theme with this team but a lot of these guys skill level is going to drop fast. Plummer was a much more managable 30yo at the start of this season.

5 - Receivers. I think Gonzales has already lost a step in receiving(still at a high level in blocking though). He has a chronic problem with his foot that is never going to be 100%. Even Kennison will be 33 next year which is old for a WR. This was a similar question with the DEN offense so about equal here.

While LJ is just entering his prime he's about the only one in that offense. Everyone else seems to be nearing the end of the road and who's to say all those guys in their mid 30's will be able to maintain this level of play and not be more prone to injury due to age and wear and tear? If it was just a few players that were getting old it wouldn't make that big a difference but across the board they're ALL old and getting further from being a Super Bowl contender not closer.
I was wrong..... about Priest.After 5 games started; 357/3. In the neighborhood of 71 yards and half a TD a game. Averaging 3.4 yards/carry. Just behind Jamal Lewis and his 3.6 yards/carry. Tied in rushing TD's with McNabb and.... wait for it, CHARLIE FRYE. One more rushing TD than the fleet footed Peyton Manning. Solid, but I wouldn't worry too much about flight plans for Hawaii this year.

I remember a few short months ago when I suggested that his MAX output this season would be 1500/15 and his likely output would be much lower people acted like 1500/15 was a complete insult. My how times change.

 

shadow2k

Footballguy
There were less "?"s swirling around Bell . . .
I don't agree with this. Bell had under 400 yards rushing in 2004. LJ has 1500+ yards rushing this year.I'd say that LJ has proven a lot more than Bell ever has.
True, he has proven more but he still has a lot more "?"s surrounding him;1 - Priest? Retires? Returns? Split carries? I think Priest has a much higher chance to cut into LJ's carries than we thought Anderson did cutting into Bells.

2 - Vermiel? Is he returning next season? The football world was shocked when he quit STL and it wouldn't be nearly as surprising to me if left after this season. His team(with the exception of LJ) is getting older and Vermiel himself is how old? Shanny was a lock coming back, Vermiel is much less so.

3 - OL. That's the real superstar of the KC team and how much longer can they play at this level? Once the KC line goes this teams chances of making any noise in the playoffs goes with them. The line may not have been able to lead KC to the playoffs THIS year even playing as well as they have!

4 - QB. I know plenty of people are down on Green but who else do they have? Isn't Green going to be 36yo by the start of the season? It's kind of a recurring theme with this team but a lot of these guys skill level is going to drop fast. Plummer was a much more managable 30yo at the start of this season.

5 - Receivers. I think Gonzales has already lost a step in receiving(still at a high level in blocking though). He has a chronic problem with his foot that is never going to be 100%. Even Kennison will be 33 next year which is old for a WR. This was a similar question with the DEN offense so about equal here.

While LJ is just entering his prime he's about the only one in that offense. Everyone else seems to be nearing the end of the road and who's to say all those guys in their mid 30's will be able to maintain this level of play and not be more prone to injury due to age and wear and tear? If it was just a few players that were getting old it wouldn't make that big a difference but across the board they're ALL old and getting further from being a Super Bowl contender not closer.
I was wrong..... about Priest.After 5 games started; 357/3. In the neighborhood of 71 yards and half a TD a game. Averaging 3.4 yards/carry. Just behind Jamal Lewis and his 3.6 yards/carry. Tied in rushing TD's with McNabb and.... wait for it, CHARLIE FRYE. One more rushing TD than the fleet footed Peyton Manning. Solid, but I wouldn't worry too much about flight plans for Hawaii this year.

I remember a few short months ago when I suggested that his MAX output this season would be 1500/15 and his likely output would be much lower people acted like 1500/15 was a complete insult. My how times change.
Awfully convenient to leave out the 23/274/1, isn't it? :rolleyes:
 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
LJ is ranked 2nd in PPG (16.2) after LT's 19.6 in 0 PPR leagues (total points divided by number of games played by his team to account for bye weeks). There's no great way to compare backs at this point, as Portis and Westbrook may have done slightlu better than LJ but have missed some time so that mucks up the analysis.

 

Josh the FunkDOC

Footballguy
lol this thread

LJ still rates as the #3 RB in my league, and the #2 (Westbrook) hasn't had his bye week yet. I'd say you should be plenty satisfied with that for the #1 pick, as usually the #1 pick is not going to finish #1.

 

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