Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Hagger]

OK it's pretty obvious LJ is a great pick for this upcomming season. He's a good RB in a good situation. But there is one thing I haven't noticed anyone really giving much attention to. Or maybe people have and I've just missed those posts.

But doesn't it make you wonder how it will affect the KC running game to lose both Vermeil and Saunders? To me that seems like it will make a significant difference in offensive philosophy. Something about this makes me hesitate to project him having Priest Holmes type numbers. I just think this will have a bigger impact than people are talking about.

I'd still rank him in my top 3-4 RB's. But I wouldn't project him to have Priest type numbers.

 

[Brunswick]

OK it's pretty obvious LJ is a great pick for this upcomming season. He's a good RB in a good situation. But there is one thing I haven't noticed anyone really giving much attention to. Or maybe people have and I've just missed those posts.

But doesn't it make you wonder how it will affect the KC running game to lose both Vermeil and Saunders? To me that seems like it will make a significant difference in offensive philosophy. Something about this makes me hesitate to project him having Priest Holmes type numbers. I just think this will have a bigger impact than people are talking about.

I'd still rank him in my top 3-4 RB's. But I wouldn't project him to have Priest type numbers.

Why not? The new coach Herm Edwards ran Curtis Martin all the time in NY.

 

[CA_7]

Or maybe people have and I've just missed those posts.

 

[Slider]

OK it's pretty obvious LJ is a great pick for this upcomming season. He's a good RB in a good situation. But there is one thing I haven't noticed anyone really giving much attention to. Or maybe people have and I've just missed those posts.

But doesn't it make you wonder how it will affect the KC running game to lose both Vermeil and Saunders? To me that seems like it will make a significant difference in offensive philosophy. Something about this makes me hesitate to project him having Priest Holmes type numbers. I just think this will have a bigger impact than people are talking about.

I'd still rank him in my top 3-4 RB's. But I wouldn't project him to have Priest type numbers.

Why not? The new coach Herm Edwards ran Curtis Martin all the time in NY.

But Curtis Martin was a great RB. It's still TBD if LJ is a product of the system. I think it warrants comsideration. I wouldn't take him top 3.

 

[Hagger]

Or maybe people have and I've just missed those posts.

Maybe you could direct me to those posts then. I did a search on both Johnson and Vermeil and really didn't find any posts about this specifically.

Yeah Martin got used heavily by Edwards. But I'm just not sure that system is designed to produce the same type of numbers Vermeil's was. I read through the LJ spotlight thread and people were giving him mind blowing projections. Like I said I think he'll be great. I just question him being Priest like with such major changes in offensive coaching.

 

[Brunswick]

Yeah Martin got used heavily by Edwards. But I'm just not sure that system is designed to produce the same type of numbers Vermeil's was. I read through the LJ spotlight thread and people were giving him mind blowing projections. Like I said I think he'll be great. I just question him being Priest like with such major changes in offensive coaching.

Didn't Martin lead the league in rushing two years ago by 1 yard?

I think Johnson will be top 3 in RB since he is the man in KC. Doesn't have to worry about losing TD's to a vulture or touchs to a 3rd down back.

 

[-OZ-]

For this year, if the OL stays healthy, LJ will be fine. I'd be much more concerned about Roaf/Shields than Saunders/Vermiel.

FWIW, I had lost a lot of faith in Vermiel over the last 2 years, and the new OC is the former line coach, the Chiefs should be fine.

 

[The Jerk]

Here's one thread from just before SB XL

Your concern is not unfounded. It's hard to know for sure what the impact of offseason change will be, but that's true of nearly every player on the board. Nearly everyone is placing Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander in their top 3 picks in some order.

Well, Alexander lost one of the top linemen of the league (Steve Hutchinson), and Tomlinson has a different QB alongside him, one with a total of 30 passing attempts in the NFL.

Alexander is probably the safer pick, but Johnson clearly outperformed him from the day he became the starter in KC. From Weeks 9-17, Johnson outgained Alexander 1627 to 1155 yards and scored one more TD. Note that he exceeded the rushing champ for 2005 by more than 40% in total yards from scrimmage. Granted, Alexander rested in parts of the final two games, and Johnson was much fresher having played only parts of his first seven games. Yet it's extremely difficult to ignore the fact that over nine games Johnson outperformed the full season fantasy production of every other RB in the league except for Alexander, Tomlinson, Tiki Barber and Edgerrin James.

Another way to look at Johnson's Weeks 9-17 stats is that -- prorated over 16 games -- he could have his fantasy production from that span reduced by 28.9% and he would still slightly outperform Alexander in 2005, who led the league in rushing and also set the all-time single-season TD record last season.

That's why he's so tempting as the #1 and almost impossible to pass by at #3.

 

[MLBrandow]

When the game is firing a machine gun into unarmed civilians and mowing them down, what difference does it make who the guy is saying "shoot that guy, shoot that guy, yea yea yea!!!! woooo!!!!"

Lame and obscure jokes aside, Bloom and I actually discussed this very point earlier today (not on the boards).

Saunders' protege Solari (sp) supposedly has taken over without missing a beat.

I suspect Edwards will be Dungy-like in re-shaping the defense while staying far and away from influencing the offense.

That and I do believe Larry Johnson would be a beast in any system. That he has the best OL in the league blocking for him is just icing on the cake for me.

I really, really believe we will see an amazing, amazing season out of Kansas City this year and a Super Bowl Title and a pair of MVPs for LJ.

I also think they'll suck hardcore for the next 3-4 years when half of their team subsequently retires after the season.

If there were an emoticon for gravy-train, it would go here. There is nothing to worry about .

 

[Dancing Bear]

In his 15 starts in the NFL here is what LJ has accomplished.

He has only been held to less than 20 ppg in 1 game [17.8 points]. He has an average PPG of over 27!

He has never been held to less than 100 total yards!

He is averaging 2 TD's per game and has only been held scoreless once in 15 games.

Herm Edwards knows talent and he knows how to utilize it best; he knew that he could ride Curtis Martin and did so for many years. He will not ignore the talent that he has in LJ.

Which brings me to another point. I believe that Al Saunders is definitely a good OC, but I think that you have to ask yourself what combination of talent and OC capability put together the terrific run that Kansas City has had as they have been among the best in the NFL these past many years. IMHO, it is much easier to be a good OC when you have the players that he has had the past 5 years! Turley should be a reasonable fill in for them on the line, and I see no reason to expect a dramatic departure from their past performances unless its caused by a major injury.

 

[MLBrandow]

Where was I when Turley signed with KC? Last I heard Miami was going to start him at TE or something goofy..

 

[Bojang0301]

I hope Priest gets healthy too, I would hate to see LJ overworked and shorten his career.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Comparing Herm to Vermeil/Saunders is a joke. These guys make FF RB gods, and Herm is a mediocre coach who tends slightly to the run. It's like saying Walter Payton is replaceable by Rudi Johnson. Rudi is above average, but he's no hall of famer, which is the level I would put Vermeil/Saunders at in terms of making FF RBs.

Redzone TDs scored by rush/pass the last three years by percentage (ripped from Bagobonez). IE 43.7% rushing means they score a rushing TD 43.7% of the time they get into the redzone.

KC Rushing: 43.7% (1st in the NFL)

KC Passing: 20.4% (30th in the NFL)

NYJ Rushing: 23.8% (14th in the NFL)

NYJ Passing: 24.6% (18th in the NFL)

So here we have it....KC 1st by a mile, Herm and the Jets middle of the pack. Lets not forget who the Jets QBs were these last 3 years, yet they still threw for a touchdown more often than rushed for one when inside the redzone.

 

[The Jerk]

So here we have it....KC 1st by a mile, Herm and the Jets middle of the pack. Lets not forget who the Jets QBs were these last 3 years, yet they still threw for a touchdown more often than rushed for one when inside the redzone.

Exactly! Would you fear the pass vs. the Jets QBs? Me neither! I'd gear up vs. the run and take my chances vs. the pass.I will agree with your point that Herm cannot come close to Vermeil and Saunders, but I don't think your stat makes that point more valid.

There is a significant talent gap between the Jets and KC at QB, at TE, and on the OL. It's not as simple as you suggest. This differential has to count for something.

 

[joffer]

Saunders' protege Solari (sp) supposedly has taken over without missing a beat.

I suspect Edwards will be Dungy-like in re-shaping the defense while staying far and away from influencing the offense.

IT'S NOT A NEW SYSTEM. Solari was the old offensive line coach. If it ain't broke, etc. etc.

link

 

[Jack Burton]

OK it's pretty obvious LJ is a great pick for this upcomming season. He's a good RB in a good situation. But there is one thing I haven't noticed anyone really giving much attention to. Or maybe people have and I've just missed those posts.

But doesn't it make you wonder how it will affect the KC running game to lose both Vermeil and Saunders? To me that seems like it will make a significant difference in offensive philosophy. Something about this makes me hesitate to project him having Priest Holmes type numbers. I just think this will have a bigger impact than people are talking about.

I'd still rank him in my top 3-4 RB's. But I wouldn't project him to have Priest type numbers.

Why not? The new coach Herm Edwards ran Curtis Martin all the time in NY.

But Curtis Martin was a great RB. It's still TBD if LJ is a product of the system. I think it warrants comsideration. I wouldn't take him top 3.

Product of the system? here we go.Slider, you're joking right? passing on LJ in the top three because you aren't convinced he's a stud is farcical. Did you even see him play at all? Im being serious here, maybe you missed it but the guy can flat out hang. who cares what system or what product. That dont even enter into it because he out ran everyone whoever played the system. He IS the system. He's the matrix... he's Lukes father... he"s what Willis was "talkin 'bout"

If this is an attempt to throw your fellow poolsters off the scent, good luck it aint gonna work

 

[BoltBacker]

So here we have it....KC 1st by a mile, Herm and the Jets middle of the pack. Lets not forget who the Jets QBs were these last 3 years, yet they still threw for a touchdown more often than rushed for one when inside the redzone.

Exactly! Would you fear the pass vs. the Jets QBs? Me neither! I'd gear up vs. the run and take my chances vs. the pass.I will agree with your point that Herm cannot come close to Vermeil and Saunders, but I don't think your stat makes that point more valid.

There is a significant talent gap between the Jets and KC at QB, at TE, and on the OL. It's not as simple as you suggest. This differential has to count for something.

But based on what you agree with(Edwards will have a much better passing offense in KC to work with) and Free's stats...."KC Rushing: 43.7% (1st in the NFL)

KC Passing: 20.4% (30th in the NFL)

NYJ Rushing: 23.8% (14th in the NFL)

NYJ Passing: 24.6% (18th in the NFL)"

... suggest that Edwards may actually lean more heavily this season on the passing game(with these better weapons) than he has in the past?

Personally I think he will be forced to because KC will be building the defense from the ground up(just like every season it seems) and likely won't be very good on the defensive side of the ball this year.

I also think the whole "best line in the NFL" is a bit premature when you're talking about guys at this age and considering we're not even 100% sure what's going on at RT yet. At some point Roaf/Shields are going to hit the wall..... and I doubt very much it will be a gentle descent. Maybe they both do have another year left in the tank........ but it's an awfully big "maybe".

It's been mentioned a bunch in other threads but nobody has mentioned losing Richardson in this this thread.

KC is a team in transition. And the nucleus of the team as it stands right now(Roaf/Shields/Green/Kennison/maybe even Gonzales?) won't be around when the smoke clears. I really like Edwards and thought he was a very good hire but asking any first year head coach to come in, rebuild a bad defense and take a team that missed the playoffs last season deep into the playoffs this season is a little too much.

 

[The Jacket]

I also think the whole "best line in the NFL" is a bit premature when you're talking about guys at this age and considering we're not even 100% sure what's going on at RT yet. At some point Roaf/Shields are going to hit the wall..... and I doubt very much it will be a gentle descent. Maybe they both do have another year left in the tank........ but it's an awfully big "maybe".

Premature? I don't think so. Over the last decade, they've earned the title of best offensive line in the NFL. Who else is going to challenge them for it as of right now? Seattle? Cincy? Please.As far as an awfully big "maybe"? No, not really. It'd be a big concern if, say, Roaf had missed a year and was returning at his age after a year out. But he was playing a little over 6 months ago and was dominating.

The only thing that's premature is to write them off this early. The production they've led the way for has earned the respect of at least waiting to see and reserving judgement. By all reasonable accounts and logic, the Chiefs will once again have one of, if not the, top offensive lines in football.

As for the original point, i'm just not following. Vermeil and Al Saunders neglected to play Larry Johnson as long as they could. The first significant move Herman Edwards made was to name Larry Johnson the starter -- and to the great pleasure of Chiefs fans, I may add.

The idea of comparing the Jets' rushing success (with a banged-up Curtis Martin) to the Chiefs success is rather foolish. As mentioned, like it even needed to be said, the Jets don't have two Hall of Fame linemen, three Pro Bowl linemen, a Pro Bowl QB leading a passing attack that annually puts up 4000 yards and demands respect and, put simply, a back in the same class as Larry Johnson.

You don't need Bill Walsh replacing Vermeil and Saunders to extend Johnson's success. He's a great back playing with great players in a great system. Of those three key contributors, not one has changed in the coaching transition.

For what it's worth, I have Shaun Alexander ranked as the #1 fantasy back heading into 2006 on my board. I believe he'll repeat his 2005 campaign and challenge for the touchdown record while gaining 1800 yards on the ground. But I'd be lying if I thought having Johnson any lower than #3 was reasonable.

 

[RandyDB]

I don't think anyone is suggesting passing on LJ in the top three.

I believe LJ, LT, and SA all have the potential to put up 2000 yds and 25 TDs. The question become who has the most question marks /greater risks. I think SA and LT would be the safer picks. LJ could put up numbers that far exceed the other two, but KC is more likely to tank this year than Seatlle or SD, IMO. So, I view LJ as the greater risk, but also with the higher reward.

In any senario, I wouldn't blink before taking any of the three with the 3rd pick.

 

[Yitbos69]

Here's one thread from just before SB XL

Your concern is not unfounded. It's hard to know for sure what the impact of offseason change will be, but that's true of nearly every player on the board. Nearly everyone is placing Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander in their top 3 picks in some order.

Well, Alexander lost one of the top linemen of the league (Steve Hutchinson), and Tomlinson has a different QB alongside him, one with a total of 30 passing attempts in the NFL.

Alexander is probably the safer pick, but Johnson clearly outperformed him from the day he became the starter in KC. From Weeks 9-17, Johnson outgained Alexander 1627 to 1155 yards and scored one more TD. Note that he exceeded the rushing champ for 2005 by more than 40% in total yards from scrimmage. Granted, Alexander rested in parts of the final two games, and Johnson was much fresher having played only parts of his first seven games. Yet it's extremely difficult to ignore the fact that over nine games Johnson outperformed the full season fantasy production of every other RB in the league except for Alexander, Tomlinson, Tiki Barber and Edgerrin James.

Another way to look at Johnson's Weeks 9-17 stats is that -- prorated over 16 games -- he could have his fantasy production from that span reduced by 28.9% and he would still slightly outperform Alexander in 2005, who led the league in rushing and also set the all-time single-season TD record last season.

That's why he's so tempting as the #1 and almost impossible to pass by at #3.

Alexander's numbers could have been better during the week 9-17 stretch but he was pulled from a few games in the first half because they were over and left with injury in another

 

[jurb26]

So here we have it....KC 1st by a mile, Herm and the Jets middle of the pack. Lets not forget who the Jets QBs were these last 3 years, yet they still threw for a touchdown more often than rushed for one when inside the redzone.

Exactly! Would you fear the pass vs. the Jets QBs? Me neither! I'd gear up vs. the run and take my chances vs. the pass.I will agree with your point that Herm cannot come close to Vermeil and Saunders, but I don't think your stat makes that point more valid.

There is a significant talent gap between the Jets and KC at QB, at TE, and on the OL. It's not as simple as you suggest. This differential has to count for something.

I really hope you're not trying to say that teams where not stacking up to stop the Cheifs run in the redzone here.

Saunders' protege Solari (sp) supposedly has taken over without missing a beat.

I suspect Edwards will be Dungy-like in re-shaping the defense while staying far and away from influencing the offense.

IT'S NOT A NEW SYSTEM. Solari was the old offensive line coach. If it ain't broke, etc. etc.

link

How can either of you say that they haven't missed a beat when they haven't even played a single game yet?

 

[Sigfawn]

OK it's pretty obvious LJ is a great pick for this upcomming season. He's a good RB in a good situation. But there is one thing I haven't noticed anyone really giving much attention to. Or maybe people have and I've just missed those posts.

But doesn't it make you wonder how it will affect the KC running game to lose both Vermeil and Saunders? To me that seems like it will make a significant difference in offensive philosophy. Something about this makes me hesitate to project him having Priest Holmes type numbers. I just think this will have a bigger impact than people are talking about.

I'd still rank him in my top 3-4 RB's. But I wouldn't project him to have Priest type numbers.

Herm isn't touching the offense. He's not calling the plays. Herm was brought in to fix the DEFENSE. Why shouldn’t we be worried? The system works regardless of the HC. Denvers system went to ATL. How did they become a top tier rush offense without Shanny? How did Denver survive without Gibbs? It's the SYSTEM. Neither of them matter.

Texans are adding the Denver system. Won't losing Shanny matter? It didn't matter in ATL. A good run system, is a good run system. The Chiefs aren't learning a new offense. It's the ***SAME*** offense. Herm will make about 4 offensive calls a game. Beyond that, he's a spectator.

Shanny isn't the only guy who can implement a good run system (as shown). Saunders isn't the only OC who can implement a good run system (as we will see). People need to realize an offense has 5-6-7-8+ coaches. It's not one man. It's a team effort among a number of people. KC hired within, to keep the same offense. Offense isn't the problem. It's the defense. KC has been a power rush offense for years. They run it, they draft for it, they plan for it. Relax.

If Mora (ex-DC) hasn't hurt the denver run system in ATL, I'm not sure how Herm is going to destroy the KC system (when the new OC has been with the chiefs for a number of years, and is running the same offense, with the same personnel).

If it was Holmes as the starter, no one would question a thing. But there's an LJ backlash in the FF community. There was such angst last year about drafting LJ early, and not handcuffing Holmes (refusing to “overpay” for LJ). It really polarized the FF community. You either love LJ, or you have built up angst for him.

No one is questioning the Chargers o-line. New QB. People gloss over SAs age, losing o-line. But LJ? 2-3 threads a day about the impending doom. If this was Holmes, people would be riding the Holmes man crush without critics.

This offense hasn’t changed in 8-10 years. Except LJ is younger, stronger, faster. Again, where’s the 2-3 threads a day about LT being hurt by Rivers, crappy o-line? SAs age? Big fat contract? SA losing Hutchinson? That’s a blip on the radar. But LJ is constantly over-analyzed by people who don’t own LJ. If LJ was in Denver and didn’t replace everyone’s favorite man crush Holmes, he’d be the #1 pick overall, and you’d be lynched to suggest otherwise. But LJ has become such a polarizing figure, people are completely blinded. They’re questioning a stud rb, who has produced, in the best rush offense in the league. Paralysis by analysis.

RB + KC offense = FF gold.

RB + DEN offense = FF gold.

Don’t fight it.

P.S. And for all this "worrisome evidence" you drop LJ to 3-4. No kidding? So Herm being the HC dropped him from 2 to 3-4? Can't put up Holmes numbers but you're drafting him 3-4? I love all the critics of LJ, but in the end, they scoop him up 3rd overall. Can't be too worried.

 

[Snotbubbles]

KC's offensive success was more a product of the players than it was any system.

When Vermiel/Saunders came to KC the RBs were Kimble Anders, Donnell Bennett, Mike Cloud, Frank Moreau and Tony Richardson. He brought in Holmes in his first off-season so obviously the running game could only get better. But it wasn't until Willie Roaf came in 2002 that the offense became dominant. It's all about the players.

If Al Saunders is such an RB god of a coach, why did the San Diego Chargers rank in 1987 27th in rush yards and 22nd in TDs, 1988 12th in rush yards and 21st in TDs. If my theory is correct, it probably because he didn't have the personnel to be dominant.

Another example, Brian Billick was supposed to be this great offensive minded coach. He was gonna go to Baltimore and turn the offense into this high powered system. Guess what? He didn't have the players to do that so he played to his strengths. The offense after all these years is still suspect.

Same thing here or with any coach. If your strength is running the ball you do it. If not you play to your strengths. Herm would be a fool not to try and run the ball considering how dominant LJ was last year.

 

[jurb26]

Another example, Brian Billick was supposed to be this great offensive minded coach. He was gonna go to Baltimore and turn the offense into this high powered system. Guess what? He didn't have the players to do that so he played to his strengths.

Great god am I glad someone else actualy understands that this actually happens.Just one thought... don't you think it's possible that Saunders actually learned and adapted some things from 1988 to now? I mean come on, that is nearly 20 years! To say that he didn't run the ball well back then seems a bit weak IMO. How much has changed in the NFL is 2 years? A ton has.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

KC's offensive success was more a product of the players than it was any system.

It just seems like waaaaay too big of a coincidence to me that Vermeil went to two consecutive teams with mediocre/bad rushing attacks and just happened to fall into a situation that netted two of the best rushing attacked in FF history.How many RBs in all of history have scored 25+ TDs in a season? It is a very, very low number such that the chances of Vermeil just happening to fall into two situations in a row that did so and were nowhere near there before he arrived is enormously, gigantically, exponentially, ridiculously low.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Just one thought... don't you think it's possible that Saunders actually learned and adapted some things from 1988 to now? I mean come on, that is nearly 20 years! To say that he didn't run the ball well back then seems a bit weak IMO. How much has changed in the NFL is 2 years? A ton has.

Not when you take it in context of the who response. You need the players. I know you really want to believe that Saunders is some sort of offensive genius for your Redskins this year. But the personnel will determine the success, not Saunders.

It just seems like waaaaay too big of a coincidence to me that Vermeil went to two consecutive teams with mediocre/bad rushing attacks and just happened to fall into a situation that netted two of the best rushing attacked in FF history.

STL RBs Vermiels first year: Craig Heyward, Amp Lee, Ron Moore, Jerald Moore, Lawrence Phillips, David Thompson.That year they ranked 17th in attempts, 24th in yards, 25th in YPR, 9th in TDSSTL RBS Vermiels second year: Derrick Harris, June Henley, Greg Hill, Robert Holcombe, Amp Lee, Jerald Moore, David Thompson.That year they ranked 28th in attempts, 29th in yards, 28th in YPR, 9th in TDs.STL RBs Vermiels third year: MARSHALL FAULK, James Hodgins, Robert Holcombe, Amp Lee, Justin WatsonThat year they ranked 16th in attemps, 5th in yards, 2 in YPR, 14th in TDsFunny how Vermiel turned the running game around in STL. Well at least, once he brought in Marshall Faulk. Same thing in KC, the running game was terrible because they didn't have the talent. Once Holmes came on board the running game was pretty good. Then they brought in Roaf and the running game became dominant. It's the personnel.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

If your strength is running the ball you do it. If not you play to your strengths. Herm would be a fool not to try and run the ball considering how dominant LJ was last year.

I think you hit on the factor many people are worried about here.

 

[noneother]

I think all the "bust" mojo may leap from Reggie Bush to LJ.... just gotta feeling in the back of my head that he isn't gonna be priest redux.. i often am wrong.. just a feeling

 

[The Jacket]

It just seems like waaaaay too big of a coincidence to me that Vermeil went to two consecutive teams with mediocre/bad rushing attacks and just happened to fall into a situation that netted two of the best rushing attacked in FF history.

It's not coincedence. It's called Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Snotbubbles is right on here!!!!!

I think that folks are a bit too down on what Herm Edwards did/ can do. It may be partly him, but there is a really strong correlation between the health of the Jets players and the end result ...

In 2001, the Jets were 10-6, and they went to the playoffs. Martin was healthy and had over 1,800 total yards and 10 TD's. All this with a healthy V. Testaverde. Testaverde was not strong and the Jets ended up with a fairly feeble passing attack [less than 3,000 passing yards and no receiver over 900 yards].

In 2002, the Jets were 9-7, and they went to the playoffs. Martin had over 1,400 total yards and 7 TD's in spite of the fact that he had a poultry showing for the start of the season and their 1-4 start. Pennington came in to replace Testaverde and had a great rookie season and added chemistry with Coles who broke 1,000 yards.

In 2003, the Jets lost Coles and finished 6-10. Pennington got hurt. Vinnie was too old. Moss could not keep Defenses honest enough even with breaking 1,000 yards. Martin still had nearly 1,600 total yards, but his TD's were basically zero [2].

In 2004, the Jets finished 10-6, and they went to the playoffs. In spite of losing Pennington and Moss for part of the season Martin still finished with nearly 1,900 total yards and 14 TD's.

In 2005, the Jets finished 4-12. They lost 3 different QB's to injury and they lost Martin to injury. Martin finished with less than 900 total yards. Coles was back and flirted with 900 yards in spite of the lack of proficiency behind center.

I fail to see how these critical injuries are Herm's fault. With moderate health to his key players he went to the playoffs each year. Without the health, they did not. It seems to me that this is part organization, part luck and then part coaching. But tell me which organization or coach could loose 3 QB's and their star RB in one season and still come out smelling like roses?

 

[TS Garp]

It's been mentioned a bunch in other threads but nobody has mentioned losing Richardson in this this thread.

I'm also surprised that no one else has brought this up in this thread, as it could be a real factor. One of the things that made Johnson such a stud last season is that he stepped into a great situation: running behind the best OL in the league, having one of the best blocking fullback's in the league in front of him, playing for a great coach and OC who want to pound the ball, having an experienced, rock-solid QB behind him, and one of the game's best TE's and a talented -- if overlooked -- WR to keep defenses honest. Heading into this season, his fullback is gone and the coaching staff is different. The line is intact, although Roaf is 36 and Shields will be 35 this fall. It's still one of the best situations for a RB in the league, although perhaps not what it was when LJ took the reins last year. Is there a scenario where things could partially implode for LJ and the Chiefs' offense? Sure. But, as someone pointed out above, no RB comes without some risk. I don't buy the 2000 yd/25 td projections that some are posting in LJ's player spotlight, and I'd take LT over him at #1, but I'd be surprised to see less than 1600/18, and, even with a few small question marks, I don't possibly see how you could pass him up at #3.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I don't think it will have an effect, but as Ive said before on this board, Herm's penchant for being ultraconservative slightly worries me. He is a "play for the tie" kind of coach. He's already said that they will be looking to take the air out the ball instead of expanding leads in the 2nd half (implying that Vermeil did play to run to up the score). I just wonder if the team becomes a little more predictable with Herm's philosophy at the helm instead of vermeil's...

 

[WhoDat]

For this year, if the OL stays healthy, LJ will be fine. I'd be much more concerned about Roaf/Shields than Saunders/Vermiel.

And to further what Oz started I would say that I am also concerned with the age of Green, Kennison and Gonzalez. The Chiefs offense has a number of skilled and non skilled players at or over the critical age of 30. When it goes in football, it goes...quickly. The 2002 v. 2003 Raiders comes to mind as a recent example of how fast a team can age in a lone offseason. Of course, you cannot predict when that might happen but it is something that you have to be mindful of or take into account if you own LJ or are going to pursue him via trade in a dynasty format. That team could look VERY different on that side of the ball in the next 16, 32 or 48 games. Offensive continuity will be temporarily impaired, opinion. It is not like a completely new playbook has been handed to Green and Co. A familiar voice is calling the plays. Those are the same plays the team have been used for a number of seasons. It will take a few games to get on track and find a communicative rhythm but I do not see this as nearly as concerning as player age.

 

[NYRAGE]

People expecting Herm to take the Chiefs to the Super Bowl or even fix the defense are in for a rude awakening. The guy is totally inept. His only skill is talking. The rah-rah stuff gets old when you realize there is no substance behind it.

Not only is he inept, but he is gutless. He would have never gone for that td when LJ scored to beat the Raiders. He talks about playing to win, but plays not to lose. Going from Vermeil to Edwards is a major downgrade. You'll see.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

It's been mentioned a bunch in other threads but nobody has mentioned losing Richardson in this this thread.

I'm also surprised that no one else has brought this up in this thread, as it could be a real factor. One of the things that made Johnson such a stud last season is that he stepped into a great situation: running behind the best OL in the league, having one of the best blocking fullback's in the league in front of him, playing for a great coach and OC who want to pound the ball, having an experienced, rock-solid QB behind him, and one of the game's best TE's and a talented -- if overlooked -- WR to keep defenses honest.

Heading into this season, his fullback is gone and the coaching staff is different. The line is intact, although Roaf is 36 and Shields will be 35 this fall. It's still one of the best situations for a RB in the league, although perhaps not what it was when LJ took the reins last year.

Is there a scenario where things could partially implode for LJ and the Chiefs' offense? Sure. But, as someone pointed out above, no RB comes without some risk. I don't buy the 2000 yd/25 td projections that some are posting in LJ's player spotlight, and I'd take LT over him at #1, but I'd be surprised to see less than 1600/18, and, even with a few small question marks, I don't possibly see how you could pass him up at #3.

From what I recall during last year's games, LJ ran primarily from a 1 back set.

 

[massraider]

It's been mentioned a bunch in other threads but nobody has mentioned losing Richardson in this this thread.

I'm also surprised that no one else has brought this up in this thread, as it could be a real factor. One of the things that made Johnson such a stud last season is that he stepped into a great situation: running behind the best OL in the league, having one of the best blocking fullback's in the league in front of him, playing for a great coach and OC who want to pound the ball, having an experienced, rock-solid QB behind him, and one of the game's best TE's and a talented -- if overlooked -- WR to keep defenses honest.

Heading into this season, his fullback is gone and the coaching staff is different. The line is intact, although Roaf is 36 and Shields will be 35 this fall. It's still one of the best situations for a RB in the league, although perhaps not what it was when LJ took the reins last year.

Is there a scenario where things could partially implode for LJ and the Chiefs' offense? Sure. But, as someone pointed out above, no RB comes without some risk. I don't buy the 2000 yd/25 td projections that some are posting in LJ's player spotlight, and I'd take LT over him at #1, but I'd be surprised to see less than 1600/18, and, even with a few small question marks, I don't possibly see how you could pass him up at #3.

From what I recall during last year's games, LJ ran primarily from a 1 back set.

Ahhh, yes. Tony Richardson, IMO, was never one of the top blocking backs in the league. But either way, LJ's production had much more to do with the line than TRich.I don't think the coaching change will keep him from becoming a top 3 back.

I think I'm more interested in what happens after 2006. Shields and Roaf should both be gone, Welbourn is already gone, that scares me as an LJ owner. I have him in a keeper league, and a dynasty, and will consider trades after 2006.

 

[BoltBacker]

For this year, if the OL stays healthy, LJ will be fine. I'd be much more concerned about Roaf/Shields than Saunders/Vermiel.

And to further what Oz started I would say that I am also concerned with the age of Green, Kennison and Gonzalez. The Chiefs offense has a number of skilled and non skilled players at or over the critical age of 30. When it goes in football, it goes...quickly. The 2002 v. 2003 Raiders comes to mind as a recent example of how fast a team can age in a lone offseason.

Gonzo 30Green 36

Kennison 33

Roaf 36

Shields 35

Wiegman 33

It's not just a matter of guys over the age of 30 on that offense. And it's not just the fact it's a number of players. It's a matter of almost ALL the KEY players being in their mid-30's. Gonzo is the only guy closer to 30 than his mid-30's and I don't think that foot is ever going to be completely "healthy".

 

[Bojang0301]

I think we are getting into more of a long term argument here. LJ had the most prolific 8 weeks I have ever seen out of an RB and I think most on this board would say the same thing, at least the younger gen. Whether he is a product of the system or a product of the talent around him is a fruitless arguement at this point in time. Why, you may ask? Simply because both the system and the players are still in place.

So what are we left arguing here? We are arguing that LJ is a centerpeice on a team at it's peek or in decline. So it's up to you as to whether you have faith in him as a talent. Replacing players happens all the time in the NFL. Eventually, the OLine will be different for LJ so you have to have faith that the KC management has been grooming OLinemen behind them. I am always suprised when a team has a weak OLine simply because it seems to be the easiest part of a team to fill every year. Hell, even Mark Schlereth has stated that any hog out on the street can play guard. Now, are tackles and centers a little bit of a different deal? Yes, but when you have a unit like KC's you would have to think that they would be grabing late round talents and developing them behind the crafty, smart vets that they have in place.

As for the rest of the team, I think it is a safe bet we will see Gonzo play through LJ's prime albeit at a lower level than his prime but he will still be a force. The team now has Croyle in place to take over for Trent Green and has some young talent at WR. Will they work out? Who knows but that is the nature of the beast.

So it all comes back to whether you have faith in LJ as a RB? I, for one, do and am not scared by his future prospects. He is as talented as any back I've seen come into the league and has always been a horse when it comes to his production. I think we are only looking at a 3-4 year span where LJ dominates the league anyhow. He is going to be worked as hard as ever and has already had a 2000 yd season in college... not too mention he's already a fairly old back to have his first full season starting. It really doesn't concern me though I'm just here for the ride.

 

[The Jacket]

One of the reasons that Richardson's departure isn't mentioned in every discussion relating to Johnson is because he played in such a small percentage of the Chiefs' offensive plays. When Johnson was tearing it up at the end of the season, Richardson was often on the sidelines.

 

[Hagger]

People have made some good points for why I shouldn't worry about LJ. Including a link by someone that lead to a bio on KC's new offensive coordinator, which was a good read and exactly the type of thing I was looking for.

But I think my point is being partially missed by a few. I never said I thought LJ would come out and tank the season. I think he's a great pick. I said I don't buy into some of the insane projections that many are giving him. One thing I've learned in this hobby is to temper my expectations of whatever the hottest thing is. Including players who've run wild in the 2nd half of the previous season.

I'm not convinced that this will be the exact same system as many here are claiming. That has yet to be seen. With a new head coach and oc there will be changes. They are different people who will make different decisions. While the oc seems to have his roots in this system, it will be fun to watch how he handles running the whole offense. Bottom line to me is, I don't really doubt LJ or his teammates, I doubt Herm Edwards and the new guy. If they tweak or monkey with the offense at all it could have a negative impact.

 

[BoltBacker]

But I think my point is being partially missed by a few. I never said I thought LJ would come out and tank the season.

Same here. Seems to me most are expecting 2000+ combined yards and 20+ TD's. If that's the expectation I'll be taking the under.Even if there wouldn't have been the coaching change, the loss of his FB and the other players on the KC offense weren't ancient I'd still put my $ on the under. After you throw those variables into the mix it seems like a lock to me he'll be under those stats. It's not just Johnson either. I'm dinging down Antonio Gates as well because I just don't see him having another season like that either.

 

[CalBear]

Herm Edwards knows talent and he knows how to utilize it best; he knew that he could ride Curtis Martin and did so for many years. He will not ignore the talent that he has in LJ.

Please note that Larry Johnson had 336 carries in 2005, despite starting only 8 games. Curtis Martin had more than 336 carries for the season only once under Herm Edwards.Larry Johnson is very likely to be a fantasy stud in 2006, but to expect a lot more than he delivered in 2005 is, at best, optimistic.

 

[CalBear]

The 2002 v. 2003 Raiders comes to mind as a recent example of how fast a team can age in a lone offseason.

In 2003, Tim Brown was 37, Rich Gannon was 38, and Jerry Rice was 41. Kansas City is not very old in 2006; certainly not compared to the 2003 Raiders.

 

[WhoDat]

The 2002 v. 2003 Raiders comes to mind as a recent example of how fast a team can age in a lone offseason.

In 2003, Tim Brown was 37, Rich Gannon was 38, and Jerry Rice was 41. Kansas City is not very old in 2006; certainly not compared to the 2003 Raiders.

Gonzo 30Green 36

Kennison 33

Roaf 36

Shields 35

Wiegman 33

In football terms this list is old. Factually, no, they are not as old as the Raiders. In terms of pointing out a recent example of a team that had many offensive players on the wrong side of 30 I felt/feel they meet the requirement.

5 players over 32 to include 3 of your OL; your QB and starting WR. Cut it any way you want but the list provided signifies the Chiefs are an aging team.

 

[jurb26]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. This Chargers team reaks of the Oak Raiders of 2003.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It just seems like waaaaay too big of a coincidence to me that Vermeil went to two consecutive teams with mediocre/bad rushing attacks and just happened to fall into a situation that netted two of the best rushing attacked in FF history.

STL RBs Vermiels first year: Craig Heyward, Amp Lee, Ron Moore, Jerald Moore, Lawrence Phillips, David Thompson.That year they ranked 17th in attempts, 24th in yards, 25th in YPR, 9th in TDS

STL RBS Vermiels second year: Derrick Harris, June Henley, Greg Hill, Robert Holcombe, Amp Lee, Jerald Moore, David Thompson.

That year they ranked 28th in attempts, 29th in yards, 28th in YPR, 9th in TDs.

STL RBs Vermiels third year: MARSHALL FAULK, James Hodgins, Robert Holcombe, Amp Lee, Justin Watson

That year they ranked 16th in attemps, 5th in yards, 2 in YPR, 14th in TDs

Funny how Vermiel turned the running game around in STL. Well at least, once he brought in Marshall Faulk. Same thing in KC, the running game was terrible because they didn't have the talent. Once Holmes came on board the running game was pretty good. Then they brought in Roaf and the running game became dominant. It's the personnel.

Couldn't it also be that it just took him a few years to get the system in (we hear this for other coaches all the time)? Again, just stumbling upon the right "personnel" to have a RB put up 25 TDs is one in a thousand, and you're saying that Vermeil stumbled into this one in a thousand thing three times in a row. That is an awful, awful large coincidence.

It just seems like waaaaay too big of a coincidence to me that Vermeil went to two consecutive teams with mediocre/bad rushing attacks and just happened to fall into a situation that netted two of the best rushing attacked in FF history.

It's not coincedence. It's called Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson.

Same point as above. You mean to tell me that Vermeil just stumbled upon three of the greatest RBs we've seen, what is that if not coincidence?I dunno, maybe it's just the statistician in me that says that if there are four RBs in the last five years to put up these huge TD numbers and three of them were all coached by the same guy that there's something more at hand here than pure chance. But hey, I guess Vermeil should try the lotto, with that luck he could probably win it twice in a row.

 

[BoltBacker]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. This Chargers team reaks of the Oak Raiders of 2003.

They did both lose their last game of the season the previous year. Nice call.

 

[BoltBacker]

5 players over 32 to include 3 of your OL

Turley will be 31 this season and they may need him to take over at RT.Waters is a young pup on that line at 29 years of age.

 

[derek245583]

As a non owner of LJ (not happy about it) lemme say this. I dont think he will see a large dropoff in total carries at all. Much of the same, where they pound him every series. Here is my thought and concern with the Vermeil loss. It is a significant one to say the least. #### Vermeil has a vertical passing attack. This keeps safeties back and teams playing off to protect against the deep pass. Surelly this would create more running romm for LJ. Another major thing that I saw last year with #### was this, and I watched almost every single chiefs game as my brother ownes LJ. When the cheifs got down inside the 10yd line. LJ always got chances. He would sometimes just be pounded 3 straight times and if necessary 4. It was LJ left. LJ right, LJ up the middle, LJ left again. #### Vermeil was obsessed with getting him the pill in a scoring situation. That is just my .02.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

least. #### Vermeil has a vertical passing attack. This keeps safeties back and teams playing off to protect against the deep pass. Surelly this would create more running romm for LJ. Another major thing that I saw last year with #### was this, and I watched almost every single chiefs game as my brother ownes LJ. When the cheifs got down inside the 10yd line. LJ always got chances. He would sometimes just be pounded 3 straight times and if necessary 4. It was LJ left. LJ right, LJ up the middle, LJ left again. #### Vermeil was obsessed with getting him the pill in a scoring situation. That is just my .02.

I agree with this 100%. Most teams will give the ball to their back on 1st and goal from the 8, or 2nd and goal from the 1. But if they have 1st and goal on the 8 and lose a yard on the first carry that's pretty much it for running it on that series. I was always amazed when watching KC games that they would give him the ball almost no matter what inside the 10. 2nd and goal from the 9? LJ. 3rd and goal from the 6? LJ. No other teams forcefeed the ball to their RB inside the 10 like that.