This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
The good news is that even when you lighten the workload of a guy who just set an NFL record for carries in a season, he still might lead the league in carries anyway. Herm knows that he needs L.J. for the long haul.
Lamont Jordan got close to 100 carries a couple of times playing behind Martin.That's a pretty significant chunk of work going to the backup.
How far into the future do you try to plan for ?, seems to me that if you expect 3-4 years of production age shouldnt be a factor when making a pick. Gore for example is younger, but with his medical history, LJ could still be a workhorse when he is done. My point is that looking too far ahead might be a mistake.
his workload might decrease, but his ypc avg should increase, less wear and tear should mean longer runs per carry. This offense is going to be better in '07 with Huard at QB. adding a quality WR is a priority for the Chiefs in this draft, possibly even a guy like Ginn, Jr., and doing so will force the opponents to respect the passing game more than they have previously.they'll probably grab a few offensive linemen via the draft, too.Herm always leans heavily on his running game. this year will be no different. Bennett can't stay healthy, and there really isn't another RB on the roster to steal carries from LJ.the Chiefs are getting better defensively, which means they'll get the ball back for the offense more than in previous years, so their Time of Possession will go up. Thats another good sign that LJ is going to have a banner year.
OTOH-If you look at touches (carries and receptions) you'll see LT has had a bigger workload than some might think. LJ had 457 touches last year. LT has had 398, 451, 413, 392, 390 & 404. He seems to be doing alright.I think you have to look at the invidual moreso than the touvhes to see how well they handle it. LJ has not shown indications of late season breakdowns and that's a good sign IMO.
To reduce the wear, LT often does not to take the hits and runs out of bounds. LJ does not.
LT has missed one game in his career and that was to be rested for the playoffs. He would have played otherwise.
FWIW One year Martin started slow and didn't get many carries the first couple weeks, so the spike was mostly due to him filling in.The other he had 371 carries so this is probably the one to compare it to in Herm's career.I think Koya's got a point in that he said it every year and it didn't happen but 50% of the time.Bennett didn't get much work in KC last year (some of that due to injury) so I'm a bit curious if Herm has enough confidence in Bennett to give him 100 carries or if someone else will be brought in.
LT also born in '79... by the same rationale, should he be bumped down in dynasty leagues?
I kind of mentioned that in... you know... the first post in the thread.redman said:
Still thought it was worth a mention, especially the "we might use three backs" part.
Great, then you covered it all in the first post. We should have just locked the thread then and there.I kind of mentioned that in... you know... the first post in the thread.redman said:
Honestly, I think LJ will have fewer carries because, if history is any guide, he'll suffer from injuries this year that will keep him out of games. Even assuming full health it would be tough to replicate a record-breaking performance from him two years in a row.
Priest?Didn't we read something here last week about there being NO WAY he comes back to KC?Great, then you covered it all in the first post. We should have just locked the thread then and there.I kind of mentioned that in... you know... the first post in the thread.redman said:
To me, the key here is Priest. If he's serious about playing again, he'd be a good second option for them and enough of a reason for them to spell LJ (something BTW that Herm never had behind CuMar in New York). If not, they really don't have any other options to run the ball . . . and yeah, I'm not a Michael Bennett fan.
I certainly could be wrong about that and would defer to the KC homers, but I thought that Priest's position was that he would come back to play with KC, but that was the only team he was considering.Priest?Didn't we read something here last week about there being NO WAY he comes back to KC?Great, then you covered it all in the first post. We should have just locked the thread then and there.I kind of mentioned that in... you know... the first post in the thread.redman said:
To me, the key here is Priest. If he's serious about playing again, he'd be a good second option for them and enough of a reason for them to spell LJ (something BTW that Herm never had behind CuMar in New York). If not, they really don't have any other options to run the ball . . . and yeah, I'm not a Michael Bennett fan.
Lemme see if I can find something.
I'm far from a Michael Bennett fan these days, believe me. I had him in a dynasty league a few years back, and I kept waiting for him to explode as Minnesota's featured back. But all my faith got me was injuries and a time-share with Moe Williams and The Whizzinator. But I have to admit, Bennett looks revitalized in KC. He's a perfect change-of-pace back for Johnson. He had some MAMMOTH holes through which to run last season, and with his speed, he doesn't need too much daylight to be effective.
Perhaps the OL will be better and he can handle those duties. I would much rather KC use the draft picks at other positions.
He was injured, in '04 he had a groin injury on '05 it was a broken/cracked rib.
Shame on you Bobby...you should know I look at a lot more than the year they are born but lets have some fun with this.RB Born in '77-'79...these are the RB that are starting that are the oldest.'77Shaun Alexander'78DeuceEdgeT.JonesL.JordanT.Henry'79LTLJRudiWestbrookChester TaylorJ.LewisNow I am not saying that all these RB are in their last season but they are the "Senior" RB of the NFL...most RB have a short shelf life. LT is truly one of the greates ever...HOF for sure.His OL is the absolute best at run blocking in the league right now and they are locked away fro the next 3-5 seasons across the board so he will not take the same pounding others will. Its not hard to stay fit and injury free when you don't get touched till you are 3-4 yds beyond the line of scrimmage. Rare that a DT gets all his weight and momentum into a tackle on LT...usually speedy LB or FS/SS that may weigh less than LT does are the ones making the tackles...Priest was able to play into his 30s because he didn't absorb as much punishment in KC. I think LT should probably be limited to 275-300 carries if they want to keep him around another 4-5 seasons Bob. They could easily get him 60-80 catches out of the backfield so he can still get north of 20+ touches every week. Here are the RB in the league for everyone to look at. I split the age factor into 3 tiers for RB in dynasty drafts.1980-1982FWP '80Portis '81McGahee '81R.Brown '81T.Bell '81K.Jones '82"Cadillac" '82C.Benson '82J.Jones '82B.Jacobs '82M.Turner '82...not starting but its time for him to take the field1983-1985S.Jax '83F.Gore '83J.Addai '83D.Williams '83MB III '83J.Norwood '83L.White '84Reg Bush '85L.Maroney '85MJD '85The pool of RB in 83-85 eventually move ahead into the middle tier, then the later tier...who do you want from those young group of RB? In dyansty I want RB that are young and have a shelf life of 4-5 years ahead of them. Eventually the guys in the '77-'79 tier are going to retire and someone takes their place as the elite RB...maybe some in the young pup pool like SJax and Gore already have. Makes them worth even more I imagine.Bob Magaw said:LT also born in '79... by the same rationale, should he be bumped down in dynasty leagues?Ministry of Pain said:
In other news, water is still wet, and Matt Millen is still the GM of the Detroit Lions.Simple logic dictates that LJ is getting fewer carries this year. Either Herm Edwards reduces his workload, or else he's going to break a leg/tear an ACL/spontaneously combust from the insane workload.Larry Johnson 2005-2006 bears a strong resemblance to Earl Campbell 1980-1981. Very similar style (all about punishment and pain, never shying from contact). Insane workload at an absurd level of production in the first year- 373 carries at 5.2 per for Campbell, and while Johnson only had 336 carries in 2005 (@ 5.2 ypc also), those carries came in such few games that it was like a dramatically higher workload. In the second season, we get another crazy workload coupled with a clear and drastic decline in effectiveness. Campbell dropped to 361 carries at 3.8 ypc (a drop of 1.4 ypc), while LJ posted 416 @ 4.3 ypc (a drop of .9 ypc). In the next season, the wheels really fell off for Campbell- he missed 7 games, and only averaged 3.4 yards per carry in the games he did play.Another good comparison would be Ricky Williams 2002-2003. In 2002, he had 383 @ 4.8 per. In 2003, he had 392 @ 3.5 per. In 2004, he retired, citing the workload as one of the primary reasons. Or we have Jamal Lewis- he had 387 carries @ 5.3 per in 2003, then 235 @ 4.3 in 2004, and in the two years since has averaged 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry. Or there's Ahman Green (who isn't as good of a comparison because he's not as physical of a runner). He had 355 @ 5.3 in 2003, 259 @ 4.5 in 2004, and 77 @ 3.3 in 2005.Chase could pull up a much better set of data than I could, but it seems to me that history has been ABSURDLY unkind to backs that get a high workload one year, then see their ypc drop precipitously in the year following. In all cases I can think of, that precipitous drop in YPC is an early warning sign that the RB is about to self combust spectacularly. It's often missed because the RB still puts up good numbers (thanks to an insane workload), but it shouldn't be ignored.Can anyone ever think of an example of an RB getting 370 carries in one season and then seeing his ypc drop by .8 or more the following season where he didn't completely combust in year 3? I know that Larry Johnson didn't technically have 370 carries two years ago, but he had 336, and they were in so much of a shorter timeframe that I'm postulating he received as much wear that season as the typical 370 carry RB.The closest thing I can think of is Emmitt Smith from 1995 to 1997- 377 @ 4.7 in '95, 327 @ 3.7 in '96. In 1997 he still managed 1000 yards (if just barely), rushing for 261/1074, but he also set a career low in TDs with 4 and had what was easily the worst season of his career outside of his 4-year farewell tour (last two years in Dallas and his two-year stint in Arizona).Actually, wait, I just found Eric Dickerson from 1984-1986. 379 @ 5.6, 292 @ 4.2, and then 404 @ 4.5 in year 3. I suppose there's hope for LJ after all- he just has to prove as durable as the most durable RB in the history of the NFL.
Good post but I guess the crux of issue is did he lose effectiveness due to overwork or was it other factors? I'm not sure of the answer but there were some drastic changes in KC, lost QB for a stretch, new HC, new OC, lost blocking FB, major line departures, etc. that could easily explain the YPC drop. Not to mention that he had an unrealistically high YPC the prior year. All that being said, the offensive situation doesn't appear a whole lot better this year and it's very likely that he'll have a reduction in carries for the many reasons already stated. He should still be a top 5 back next year though.
Wow, 80-82 weren't good years for RB births - there's FWP, Portis, and Turner83-85 has Gore, SJax, Bush, Addai, LWhite (who should be a monster), Maroney, MJD...Shame on you Bobby...you should know I look at a lot more than the year they are born but lets have some fun with this.RB Born in '77-'79...these are the RB that are starting that are the oldest.'77Shaun Alexander'78DeuceEdgeT.JonesL.JordanT.Henry'79LTLJRudiWestbrookChester TaylorJ.LewisNow I am not saying that all these RB are in their last season but they are the "Senior" RB of the NFL...most RB have a short shelf life. LT is truly one of the greates ever...HOF for sure.His OL is the absolute best at run blocking in the league right now and they are locked away fro the next 3-5 seasons across the board so he will not take the same pounding others will. Its not hard to stay fit and injury free when you don't get touched till you are 3-4 yds beyond the line of scrimmage. Rare that a DT gets all his weight and momentum into a tackle on LT...usually speedy LB or FS/SS that may weigh less than LT does are the ones making the tackles...Priest was able to play into his 30s because he didn't absorb as much punishment in KC. I think LT should probably be limited to 275-300 carries if they want to keep him around another 4-5 seasons Bob. They could easily get him 60-80 catches out of the backfield so he can still get north of 20+ touches every week. Here are the RB in the league for everyone to look at. I split the age factor into 3 tiers for RB in dynasty drafts.1980-1982FWP '80Portis '81McGahee '81R.Brown '81T.Bell '81K.Jones '82"Cadillac" '82C.Benson '82J.Jones '82B.Jacobs '82M.Turner '82...not starting but its time for him to take the field1983-1985S.Jax '83F.Gore '83J.Addai '83D.Williams '83MB III '83J.Norwood '83L.White '84Reg Bush '85L.Maroney '85MJD '85The pool of RB in 83-85 eventually move ahead into the middle tier, then the later tier...who do you want from those young group of RB? In dyansty I want RB that are young and have a shelf life of 4-5 years ahead of them. Eventually the guys in the '77-'79 tier are going to retire and someone takes their place as the elite RB...maybe some in the young pup pool like SJax and Gore already have. Makes them worth even more I imagine.LT also born in '79... by the same rationale, should he be bumped down in dynasty leagues?
BS. The only thing Herm knows how to do is run the ball. Doubtful.
This is a great thread.Only one problem: I've yet see/hear anybody poney up to the table and relate the tales of how they've traded Larry Johnson, and his 15-20 TD's/year that are due and payable, with interest, in '07 and that he/she did it without having their sanity questioned.
Is this for real? If so
at the Herminator. In typical Herminator fashion, he doesn't mention any sort of passing game to lighten the load. Herminator doesn't even need to draft a WR ever again. Just more RB's.
Good work there. That's the type of Psychiatric Support and Justification System I'm looking for.
