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Last Minute LIGHTNING BOLTS!!! Pre-Week 4 edition..... (1 Viewer)

TZMarkie

Footballguy
PLEASE NOTE - This thread is generally geared for redraft leagues, or low numbered keeper leagues.   Not DYNASTY or deeper formats where virtually everyone is rostered.

Shoutout to Daylight  and his "2017 RB LOTTO TICKET RANKINGS" which is here ---->  https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/759610-2017-rb-lotto-ticket-rankings/

 His thread might be the best running source of continually updated RB information I have seen.  Everyone should go there, for weekly tracking and opinions on who the next big "grab" will be. Invariably this "Last Minute Lightning Bolt" pickups, will also include some RBs as well.

That aside, this thread is slightly different. Its just going to be a week-to-week "last minute" pickup thread, often I will post it right before the games start.

 Last year I started a similar thread, or it may have been on another board. Its a bit more interesting and "easier???" to see, since we now have a few weeks in the books....so we can begin to gauge who is under-performing, who is making the teams "$%^& lists" and who is rising up the ranks to make a potential change late season.

There are endless different "sleeper" or hype threads, but the point of this, is to essentially.... TAKE A CHANCE.  A stab in the dark, last minute before the waivers lock.  That one end of bench spot you have a "droppable bum" on..... head to the waiver wire, and take a complete shot in the dark.

Basically gamble on a circumstantial change to a team. (I never like to see anyone injured, but lets face it, its part of our game guys) Injury plays a major role in this. So while I am not in the business of forecasting injuries, this thread is essentially a "lets take a chance on this guy". You snag a guy on a wild gamble, if someone gets hurt, then you may have gotten lucky at the last minute....if he misses or doesn't pan out, you have only  tied up that last end of bench spot, that is likely saved for a guy that will never crack your lineup to boot.

 Every year, in spots I have utilized this strategy (if you want to call it that)  effectively, but also realize this misses far more often than it hits. One could easily go all season, and never hit on a productive acquisition.

 These guys are often the handcuffs, that are flying under the radar.  Secondary or tertiary guys, that if you snag last minute, and something happens, they may pan out for a week or two, or in rare cases they may help rest-of-season.

I entitled this thread "LAST MINUTE LIGHTNING BOLTS" as in the past I used to post it within the last couple of hours pre-kickoff. Last year on another site, I did it several times, within the last hour, even 30 minutes before the games begin.

Offhand, it has worked out several times, with varying degrees of success.....and most times it doesn't. But in the event you get lucky, it can save you a playoff run, or ultimately save your season.

One name I snagged a few years back just prior to a game, was CHARCANDRICK WEST.   At the time, he was merely a blip on the RB radar, and I snagged him, as a complete flier one Sunday morning when I had a spare bench spot. He had basically had little to no action up until then, and at the time he wasn't technically thought of, as a real handcuff. Well, you know the rest, the player in front of him got injured, and I got solid production from him that season. (though it may have only been a handful of games)There were others, but you get the drift.

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 Over the slate of my leagues, here are a few I am taking a chance on, and a few of my buddies (all who's opinions I respect) are taking a shot on.

 MATT BREIDA - Astute Hyde owners likely own Breida, especially since he is "questionable" heading into the weekend. But the fact is, MATT BREIDA is only owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues. BREIDA has the perfect storm of talent, and massive opportunity, IF  Hyde gets injured. Simply put, he could well turn out to be the "king maker" we speak of. He could possibly be a season changer. Not only is HYDE not the bastion of health, he is already nicked up. Here is a guy that in the event Hyde doesn't go today, you will not be able to get him afterwards.  Snatch him up now. If Hyde runs roughshod over AZ like he has been this season, then you have cost yourself nothing. You can always drop Breida and look elsewhere next week.

 BRANDON OLIVER - Sitting at only 5% owned on Yahoo, he is likely on your wire.  A slight scare into the Melvin Gordon owners put him on the radar last week, but Gordon returning and finishing the game killed any hype, PLUS Oliver didn't exactly look great with the few carries he had.  This might not be the season saver, but if Gordon happens to go down, trust me you will be glad you got OLIVER before everyone else did. I don't think he would exactly be putting up RB1 numbers, but the Gordon owners would be looking to acquire him, and he might give you low end RB2 numbers later on.

CHRIS IVORY - I have often called IVORY the forgotten fantasy man. He is a violent runner, that has mostly let owners down. But as a spot start over the years, he has often turned in low end RB2 numbers, depending on matchup and scenario. He is another "non-flashy" name, but with the way the Jags seem to be content with their defensive minded, "tailored to the run" games, if something were to happen to Fournette, Ivory might be in a great position for fantasy owners. Again, don't expect a season changer, but if Fournette were to go down, Ivory may be depended on to get a fair workload that could provide low end RB2 numbers on sheer volume alone. Merely 3% owned on Yahoo, he is there for the taking.

WAYNE GALLMAN - I'll say it point blank. The GMEN have one of the worst run games I have ever seen. In fact, I have pretty much avoided it completely the last few years except for Shane Vereen in one single spot, and that was out of sheer injury desperation.  This year, really is no exception, but the injury bug is around their RBs, and you have to think the GMEN are basically looking for someone, ANYONE to rise up and at least give them a tiny semblance of a run game. 1% owned. This is a true hail Mary play, as even if he distances himself from the rest of the backs there, its hard to see him in a scenario where he gives you many big games. But with injuries already setting in, some of you are desperate already.  This is the easiest one to get away from, and also the unlikeliest to give you any real return. Paul Perkins' 9 for 22 last week likely sealed his fate, and I think he is something like 23 for 48 yards for the season. The GMEN HAVE to look elsewhere.

NELSON AGHOLOR - He is owned in about 35% of Yahoo leagues last I checked.  He may or may not even be available.  But the loss of Sproles and lack of any dependable run game (I could say "to put it Blount-ly", but I won't)  :D might give Agholor a slight uptick in targets. The last couple games he has only had 3 targets each, and poor production after his strong week 1.  He might not be of great help rest-of-season, but today's game might well turn into a shootout. If that's the case and Agholor turns in a big day, at the least you might can flip him for something more attractive mid week. Here is a case where if you are desperate, you can put him in and hope today as well.

 HONORABLE MENTION - MARQUISE GOODWIN (would likely need a Garcon injury)

Who do you all have?

 TZM

 
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Interseptopus

Footballguy
Brieda is likely the best preemptive pick up. 

I like Connor as well, betting on an injury

Sterling Shepard may be a name to watch... guy had a pretty good performance last week and no one seemed to notice. 2 weeks in a row and he's suddenly fantasy relevant again

 
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oddsbodkins

Footballguy
I picked up Sterling last night and dropped Amendola. Shepard burned me last year but he's been seeing a lot of targets and they can't run the ball a lick. 

 

ldizzle

Footballguy
Ryan Griffin. Texans throw a lot to the TE position. He did good last week coming back after missing the previous game. CJ is on IR and Titans were soft vs TEs last week. Last chance to get him cheap.

 

Koya

Footballguy
if you need Wayne Gallman season is pretty much over with anyways..

Jamaal Charles 

Bilal Powell
If you need Gallman this week? maybe

In leagues where you need to pick guys up (especially RBs) before they break out,mand sometimes before they are even on the general radar?

By the time you may need him, guys like Gallman will be long gone.

It's a longshot, but at least it's a shot.

 

Nero

Footballguy
Elijah McGuire - they gave him some run even when Forte was healthy.  Maybe he gets a larger share than expected.

Will Fuller - He is back and is easily the second best target on the team.

Robert Woods - his snap count is the highest on the team so far.

Juju Smith-Schuster - played 80% of the snaps last week.

Corey Clement - already earned playing time and moves up a notch with the Sproles injury

Jermaine Kerse/Robbie Anderson/Jeremy Kerley - somebody has got to catch it

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
 Some good plucks here guys.

Going over my own -

 WAYNE GALLMAN - No, he isn't going to be a season changer, but I am actually getting him in one league. He did get 11 carries, and as bad as he looked, he actually looked better than the other GMEN RBs.   Laugh if you will, but all of a sudden my depth is gone, the bye weeks are amongst us, and I lost Dalvin Cook. Yeah I know, Wayne Gallman as a Dalvin Cook replacement.    Excuse me whilst I go puke.

 BREIDA and Branden Oliver - They are still essentially flyers, and just "take a chance" backups.  You won't hit often, but when they do, its pure gold.

It should be noted that Breida had 10 carries. This is further "proof" to me they are getting more acclimated to him and easing him in, he is the "must have" in my opinion. It may not pan out, but if it does,  he has the chance to be the "king maker" we speak of.

  AGHOLOR-  4 Targets and 3 catches, 58 yards. Take this for what its worth, I know people think Alshon is the one to own here, but I am not so sure. I think its moreof a 1A to the 1B with these two.  I know you really aren't stoked about either, but it is what it is. If you are going down this route, you are desperate anyway.

 IVORY - He had 9 touches.  I would think he is a must ow for the Fournette owner. Season changer??? Nope. But the way the Jags are "trying" to play, I think he would get enough volume to give low end 2 RB numbers in a pinch.

 Some of the other guys picks in this thread -

 Will Fuller- I strayed from picking him up, even though I needed WR help in one league. I would like to get excited, but you have to think this came from the defense not expecting it, though I can't say for sure as I didn't see but bits and pieces. Then again, the Texans won't be putting up 5 TDs every week either.

Good call, and I wish I would have fired him up somewhere.

 Elijah McGuire - He has been making a case for more work, and slowly creeping up. He may well be the future there.  This situation is liable to be a 3 headed monster, and the best thing for us fantasy owners could be if Forte were traded. I doubt it happens though. This is a situation to watch.

 Good stuff guys, I will try to go back and watch a few of the games I missed.

 Onward to next week's lightning bolts.

 TZM

 
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