Late round WR upside (1 Viewer)

[Truebluey]

Keelan Cole is another name. Guy ended the season very strong last year and obviously the injury to Lee props him up. Same for Moncrief burn less excited.

Will Fuller seems forgotten too. He was unstoppable with Watson on the field

Yes, sorry, meant to put Cole in there.

Added.

I didn't list Fuller because he won't last till round 9.

 

[Truebluey]

Looking back through previous drafts, here are my late-round fliers over the past few years:

2017: Kendall Wright, Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, Kevin White

2016: Tyler Boyd, Eli Rogers, Tajae Sharp

2015: Brian Quick, Brandon Coleman, Brashad Perriman, DeVante Parker, Tyler Lockett

You get the idea. Now, maybe I'm just really bad at drafting (likely). But it is really amazing how much time we spend trying to identify late-round value before the draft relative to how seldom those picks actually pan out. On the other hand, across that same time period I've gotten a ton of value off the WW.

Great point.

It's why I'm leaning more towards the non-rookies (Cole, Golladay, Godwin, Taylor) than the rookies, except in Dynasty drafts. In redraft, WR is tough to make a decent fantasy impression Year 1 (Yes Odell, you're the exception. And thanks for the Championship - but even then noone in our league drafted you that year).   I feel like Golladay and Godwin are really earning their roles and reps this year.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Looking back through previous drafts, here are my late-round fliers over the past few years:

2017: Kendall Wright, Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, Kevin White

2016: Tyler Boyd, Eli Rogers, Tajae Sharp

2015: Brian Quick, Brandon Coleman, Brashad Perriman, DeVante Parker, Tyler Lockett

You get the idea. Now, maybe I'm just really bad at drafting (likely). But it is really amazing how much time we spend trying to identify late-round value before the draft relative to how seldom those picks actually pan out. On the other hand, across that same time period I've gotten a ton of value off the WW.

Does this mean I'm not going to invest in any late-round fliers this year? Of course not. But I'm going to keep my expectations in check, and be more willing to cut bait if better options emerge.

 

[twood]

I LOVE Kenny Stills this year!

Look at all the targets that left with Landry. Stills is the best wr on this team and i wont be surprised when he jumps into the top 10.

Now just stand for the American Anthem moron. ?

 

[Sasgaard]

I got Cole and Benjamin late in the draft and honestly, I don't get why these two fell so late....good for me I guess. I think Cole especially has huge potential and Benjamin, I don't get the hate. Yeah, he's not a top WRs but he will get the end zone looks, and will get thrown at plenty of times per game to make him a good WR3 in my opinion.

 

[zftcg]

Great point.

It's why I'm leaning more towards the non-rookies (Cole, Golladay, Godwin, Taylor) than the rookies, except in Dynasty drafts. In redraft, WR is tough to make a decent fantasy impression Year 1 (Yes Odell, you're the exception. And thanks for the Championship - but even then noone in our league drafted you that year).   I feel like Golladay and Godwin are really earning their roles and reps this year.

Thinking about this some more. Very broadly speaking, there are four types of WRs:

1. Stud WR1s who will put up numbers across the board (Brown, OBJ)
   
2. Ace slot guys who will get lots of catches with a low YPC/TDs (Fitz, Edelman, Landry)
   
3. Boom or bust guys who will get a low number of catches but can go deep at any time (DJax, Fuller)
   
4. Everyone else
   

The difference beween 1/2 and 3/4 is that the first two largely create their own offense. Group 1 can do that because the offense runs through them and/or they're good enough to make plays no matter what the defense does. Group 2 can do it because they're very good at a specific type of route and/or they have a high level of trust with their QB (the only problem is that their upside is capped).

Groups 3 and 4, however, are market takers rather than market makers. In any given game, they can put up big numbers or disappear. With the boom/bust guys it depends on whether the coach dials up some deep shots and whether they convert them. But with Group 4, it just depends on the situation. Maybe there's a specific match-up against that D the coaches think they can exploit. Maybe the D has to roll coverage to the WR1 and so the team can feed the WR2. But the following week, the opponent has a shutdown corner so the D doesn't have to overcompensate to shut down the WR1, making the WR2 less valuable.

Anyway, since these late-round WRs we're talking about are almost by definition in Group 4, it's just always going to be really hard to predict their performance. Even the slot guys aren't going to be as reliable if they can't consistently get open the way Fitz and Edelman can (see Kendall Wright above, or Eddie Royal back in the day).

Once you get into Group 4 territory, your batting average is going to suck no matter how much research you do. The only way you can really win is if you identify guys who are ready to make the leap into Groups 1 or 2. I remember drafting Antonio Brown the year he truly became Antonio Brown; it was glorious. A similar, if less exciting, example was people who went in on Cooper Kupp last year. He's not in the Fitz/Edelman/Landry tier yet, but he may be getting there.

 

[ZWK]

I look at:

Talent, especially how likely it is that he has elite talent.

Situation/opportunity, especially how good the team's QB is and whether they already have an established go-to receiver.

Based on that, I'd rank the top 3 options as D.J. Moore CAR, Mike Williams LAC, and Calvin Ridley ATL. All 3 have the potential to be elite talents, Carolina doesn't have a go-to receiver yet, and Rivers & Ryan are both good enough to support multiple high-end receivers.

As the next batch I'd put (in order): Michael Gallup DAL, Tre'Quan Smith NO, Taywan Taylor TEN, Courtland Sutton DEN, Chris Godwin TB, Kenny Golladay DET. Most of these guys are mid-range prospects in terms of talent who are in a pretty good situation due to their QB (NO, TB, DET) or lack of an established go-to receiver (DAL, TEN). Sutton has more upside in terms of talent but has a worse situation.

 

[Statorama]

It's not going to happen in local leagues ... but I can see from this thread that Tre'Quan Smith is getting totally overlooked outside of New Orleans. Smith will overtake 33-year-old Ted Ginn as the Saints' #2 WR (statistically) during this season.

Cameron Meredith is available, but isn't 100% back yet. While Meredith will contribute in time, it's going to be kind of a lost season for him statistically. The field's wide open in front of Tre'Quan Smith.

It seems like a small thing, but Smith is also a great run blocker so he's going to see the field quite a bit.  There's gold here

 

[Stealthycat]

I look at:

Talent, especially how likely it is that he has elite talent.

Situation/opportunity, especially how good the team's QB is and whether they already have an established go-to receiver.

Based on that, I'd rank the top 3 options as D.J. Moore CAR, Mike Williams LAC, and Calvin Ridley ATL. All 3 have the potential to be elite talents, Carolina doesn't have a go-to receiver yet, and Rivers & Ryan are both good enough to support multiple high-end receivers.

As the next batch I'd put (in order): Michael Gallup DAL, Tre'Quan Smith NO, Taywan Taylor TEN, Courtland Sutton DEN, Chris Godwin TB, Kenny Golladay DET. Most of these guys are mid-range prospects in terms of talent who are in a pretty good situation due to their QB (NO, TB, DET) or lack of an established go-to receiver (DAL, TEN). Sutton has more upside in terms of talent but has a worse situation.

good post

I also look at those, and I want the highest targeted WR's I can guesstimate and get them. I actually like Ridley more than most, he's way, way better than Sanu and DJ Moore ..... I'm not sure how Cam will use that, but CAR needs a WR1 and its not Funchess IMO

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Mike Wallace is worth an honorable mention, esp in BB formats.  Torrey Smith had a few spike weeks for Phi last year, Wallace is better, and Alshon may not be healthy at least to start the year.

 

[Wrigley]

I'll be pounding RB's early and often and will be taking a bunch of these guys(drafting Saturday)

Goodwin

Crowder

Golliday

Cole

J Brown

M Williams

J Ross

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I look at:

Talent, especially how likely it is that he has elite talent.

Situation/opportunity, especially how good the team's QB is and whether they already have an established go-to receiver.

Based on that, I'd rank the top 3 options as D.J. Moore CAR, Mike Williams LAC, and Calvin Ridley ATL. All 3 have the potential to be elite talents, Carolina doesn't have a go-to receiver yet, and Rivers & Ryan are both good enough to support multiple high-end receivers.

As the next batch I'd put (in order): Michael Gallup DAL, Tre'Quan Smith NO, Taywan Taylor TEN, Courtland Sutton DEN, Chris Godwin TB, Kenny Golladay DET. Most of these guys are mid-range prospects in terms of talent who are in a pretty good situation due to their QB (NO, TB, DET) or lack of an established go-to receiver (DAL, TEN). Sutton has more upside in terms of talent but has a worse situation.

Bolded are my 3 guys, so I have to like this...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I look at:

Talent, especially how likely it is that he has elite talent.

Situation/opportunity, especially how good the team's QB is and whether they already have an established go-to receiver.

Based on that, I'd rank the top 3 options as D.J. Moore CAR, Mike Williams LAC, and Calvin Ridley ATL. All 3 have the potential to be elite talents, Carolina doesn't have a go-to receiver yet, and Rivers & Ryan are both good enough to support multiple high-end receivers.

As the next batch I'd put (in order): Michael Gallup DAL, Tre'Quan Smith NO, Taywan Taylor TEN, Courtland Sutton DEN, Chris Godwin TB, Kenny Golladay DET. Most of these guys are mid-range prospects in terms of talent who are in a pretty good situation due to their QB (NO, TB, DET) or lack of an established go-to receiver (DAL, TEN). Sutton has more upside in terms of talent but has a worse situation.

Carolina does have a lot of receiving options in McCaff and Olsen....also Funchess.....its not that wide open there, although I do like DJ 

 

[ZWK]

For opportunity, we could break it down into: a) does the team have an established elite go-to WR1 and b) does the team have lots of solid useful pass-catchers. Dallas has both types of opportunity, Pittsburgh has neither, Carolina has type (a), Arizona has type (b). I think that (a) is more important than (b) for predicting breakout WRs, although they both matter some.

 

[hamsterdam]

Watkins fell to me in the 8th, and I begrudgingly picked him.

Don't know how to feel about it.

 

[VikingFrog]

Watkins fell to me in the 8th, and I begrudgingly picked him.

Don't know how to feel about it.

He fell to me as well even later than that and I grabbed him. I’m not excited and honestly would rather have one of these young guys people are mentioning with more upside, but can’t really bring myself to drop him.

Hes underwhelmed everywhere he’s gone the last few years, and is seemingly the 4th option for catches on that team. I also own Kelce so would rather see him eat.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Watkins fell to me in the 8th, and I begrudgingly picked him.

Don't know how to feel about it.

Uninspired, perhaps? 

 

[Snorkelson]

Late round wr I can’t seem to avoid- kelvin Benjamin. I took him in like rd 15 (id have to look, it was pretty late). I don’t like him, the bills, or the qbs, but a teams wr1 that late is worth the shot.