chris1969
... I agree with pretty much everything except the QB at #3 or #4 part. The Browns need work on both OL and DL. The coin toss is crucial between the Browns and TB! If the Browns get that #3 choice and the Raiders draft Russell and Detroit takes Thomas, then the Browns have a huge opportunity to trade down. Lots of teams would be interested in trading up for Quinn, Johnson or Peterson. A bunch of those teams may be worried that TB will take 1 of those guys at #4. I say they pick up a vet QB for the short term to compete with Frye, trade down as much as possible in the first round and work on building both lines.
The only offensive lineman worthy of the top 3/4 slot is OLT Joe Thomas. We overspent for free agent OLT Bob Schafer last year, he's got a hefty signing bonus so the only way to get any ROI (Return On Investment) from him would be to move him to ORT and I'm not sure he's a road grader type of ORT to man the strong side and he cost too much to move inside and again, I do not believe he's a good fit for inside since I do not see him as a road grader. Then in looking at JT I have concerns, short wingspan gator arms means for him to seal the edge he was to be quicker than speed rushers where he has to move and set his feet and not many OLTs can do that and if you look at the amount of sacks given up by Joe Thomas, 8 1/5 in 34 games he didn't exactly shut out college DEs so I'd hate to place him an on island with Terrell Suggs/Joey Porter/Justin Smith just within our division. Bob Gallery had it all except the wingspan and if you look he doesn't have the quicks or reach to seal the edges. A total waste of a high pick and I would not risk the 3/4 on JT and no other offensive lineman rates that pick.D-Line. Branch is the only name that fits and it would be an awfully high pick for an NT. If Branch has versatility and smarts not to mention the demeanor and coachability to seamlessly flop from a 34 NT/DE to a 43 DT/DE then that is the only way he justifies that high selection. But for those seeking insta-impact from that high a pick for a rookie NT/DT/DE they have to be kidding themselves. The Pat/Romeo 34 defense is complicated so Allan would only see the field in certain packages until Romeo felt comfy with him. Romeo didn't start Braylon for nearly half his rookie season. Kamerion was playing from the get-go but his resonsibilities were limited and although we know he's a solid pass rusher he still is not a complete OLB/DE hybrid in the Pat scheme where his respsonsibilities grativitate to also dropping in coverage not to mention taking on and shedding blockers in run defense, both areas that he has to work on. But the DLMen in the Pat defense are the first line of defense, literally. They have to make intant correct reads so the next line of defense, the LBers are making their reads symaltaneously so if the DLMan makes an incorrect read or gets beat then the linebackers and any safety support blows up.
Branch is not as versatile as Richard Seymour since he's thirty pounds heavier and isn't as athletic/speedy. He'd be limted to obvious defensive packages, passing downs or short yardage/goal line where he doesn't need to read anything but merely reacts for his rookie season but he'd never be able to do the things that Seymour does, flop between 43/34 DT/DE and even drop in coverage. He would be an inside guy in any 43 packages and would be the NT in the 34 by default. I think he has the ability to move outside and play 34 DE but he'd never do the things that Richard Seymour does for the Pats so we are talking a very high pick for what would amount to an NT and that is a poor ROI for such a high draft pick.
QBs VS DLmen show an optimal sequential assembling of SB contending teams. Look at SB teams with highly drafted QBs, they did so a few years prior to their SB run. If they had highly drafted DLMen they typically drafted after thier QB was in place. I've done the homework and the only positions with any causal relationship with SB teams vis-a-vis high draft selections are QB and DL. One QB VS 3 or 4 starting DLmen wieghts value of QBs to highest importance. A QB needs time to develop but a DLman, Russell Maryland for example can be inserted into some defensive packages and get immediate but limited impact. Aikman taken three years prior to the first of Boys SB teams. Maryland was part of a heavy D-Line rotation. Troy was the lynchpin, Russell was a spoke in the D-Line wheel. QB takes longer before they make impact. I'll leave it there for now but I'm holding back on other points as to why a team should get their QB first and build the team from the quarterback position.
As far as Bentley goes, Browns fans knew that the odds of him playing next year were not good, but the news about another surgery is not promising. I agree on the AD pick being a poor fit for the Browns power running game! The funny thing is, while I expected the Fantasy Football guys projecting him to the Browns, there are a lot of Brown's fans projecting the same thing. It's not really a great comparison, given running styles, but picking AD will produce the same results as picking William Green did. They are both guys that wouldn't fit the current system.
AP is not a great fit for our blocking scheme but he's got skilz and I doubt that anyone doesn't think he can adapt. I see him leaning into his cuts and then see the POWER originating from his thighs where he puts his body at an angle and BAM POWER and expodes into his cuts but watch the tape and consentrate on how his legs/thighs independantly seem to anticipate the cut as he begins to lean in with his uppper body and how his lower body takes the hit and explodes. That style is picture perfect for a slide zone blocking scheme where Adrian could pick and chose his hole and make his power cut and explode out of it. But AP is nothing like William Green so I would not compare the two.
As far as Carlie Frye goes, the same argument can be made that he's stuck behind a poor OL and has no running game. I haven't given up on him yet, but he'll have to make huge strides in his decision making to keep the job. That's why bringing in a vet to compete with Frye is more important than a rookie that they'll try to protect for a year.
Charlie Frye has played in 23 games and has 18 starts under his belt, that is more than an adequate sample size to look at. Frye:
- third round draft selection, passed over by every NFL team two times, including the Cleveland Browns.
team produced 70 less offensive yards per game, RB's average per carry dropped a ful yard when he took over
- team finished dead last in scoring his first year
- Frye faced no competition for his starting job
- he added 23 lbs of musle
- Frye got KWII back off IR
- Frye got Braylon Edwards back off IR
- his QB passer rating went down from his rookie season
- his DPAR rating went down for two consecutive years
- his turnover streak carried over from his rookie season and is at 15 consecutive games of either throwing an interception or fumbling the ball away
- the team lost two more games with Frye starting 13 games
- the team finished second to last in the NFL for scoring
Frye continued making dumb rookie mistakes such as leading the league in tnterceptions thrown inside his own 20 yard line. The expectation is that a rookie would lead in that stat but each of last year's top rookies faired better than Frye.
AFC Leaders in Interceptions, In Own 20 (Thru games of Dec. 31, 2006)
Rank Player Team
1t
Charlie Frye Cle 3
3t Vince Young Ten 2
7t Jay Cutler Den 1
7t Matt Leinart Ari 1
Another other dumb rookie error is working the ball all the way down the field to get inside the opponents twenty yard line and turning the ball over down there and Frye ranks second worst in the league.
AFC Leaders in Interceptions, In Opp 20 (Thru games of Dec. 31, 2006)
Rank Player Team
1 Ben Roethlisberger Pit 5
2t
Charlie Frye Cle 3
9t Vince Young Ten 1
Neither Cutler or Lienart were listed so I'm assuming they didn't throw any interceptions inside the opponents twenty yard line.
Then look to see what sort of talent that Frye brings to the table and compare it to other starting QBs and the rookie prospects of last season.
Jay Cutler had the equivilent of 4 complete games last year, Charlie Frye had 13 starts last year. Their is a stat that tracks the big passing plays made of over 25 yards. Here is the partial list from last year for the AFC.
AFC Leaders in Big Play Passes (Thru games of Dec. 31, 2006)
Rank Player Team
1 Carson Palmer Cin 33
2 Philip Rivers SD 32
3 Peyton Manning Ind 31
4 Tom Brady NE 27
5 Ben Roethlisberger Pit 24
6 Chad Pennington NYJ 21
7 J.P. Losman Buf 19
8t Damon Huard KC 18
8t Steve McNair Bal 18
10
Vince Young Ten 16
15
Charlie Frye Cle 11
16t
Jay Cutler Den 9
NFC
11t
Matt Leinart Ari 17
Cutler had 9 plays of 25 yards or more in only four starts in his rookie season. Frye averaged less than one play of 25 yards or more per game, Cutler averaged over two per. Jay has a big time arm and the ability to make big plays, he has more talent than Charlie. Vince Young made 16 big plays as a rookie in his 13 starts but the above list does not list QB runs exceeding 25 yards so Young's big play ability is even higher. Lienart made the most big plays of the rookies, easily surpassed Frye.
The above demonstrates that Frye made less big plays and made more dumb rookie mistakes at crucial times during games but the next stat is why I can't take another wasted year with Frye.
I wanted to see how Frye performed at the most crucial time of the game. Crunch time, in the fourth quarter. I wanted to see if he stepped up and turned it on or if he turtled considering the Browns lost 12 games by 12 points or less and Frye had put us in a hole by not making big plays and by making horrible decisions at crucial times during games so if he could prove that he was able to overcome the mistakes and lack of innate talent by dominating crunch time then I'd be willing to see if he could develop. I found the following.
AFC Leaders in QB Rating, 4th Quarter (Thru games of Dec. 31, 2006)
(3.125 Att/Game)
Rank Player Team
1 Philip Rivers SD 116.6
2 Carson Palmer Cin 105.2
3 David Carr Hou 104.2
4 Damon Huard KC 101.2
5 Peyton Manning Ind 100.7
6 David Garrard Jac 95.6
7 J.P. Losman Buf 89.7
8 Tom Brady NE 85.0
9 Steve McNair Bal 83.2
10 Jake Plummer Den 80.5
15 Vince Young Ten 70.5
16
Matt Leinart Ari 58.8 *** (
NFC I put him in to compare how the rookies compared)
17
Charlie Frye Cle 57.2
I did not see Cutler listed so he may not have qualified for this ranking. Frye was second only to Oakland QBs in the AFC and finished lower than all rookie QBs in his second year in the league. I have come to the conclusion that the Browns should not waste another second of developmental time on Frye but need to get a more talented QB prospect stat and begin developing them.
The QB crop is just as juicy as the RB crop next year and drafting a rookie QB to hold a clipboard all year is only good if your sure the same Head Coach is coming back. Romeo needs improvement now to keep his job now, he can't afford the luxury of spending this year's top 5 pick for next year.
The luxury is taking a risky and suspect Joe Thomas or a one-dimensional NT/DT or a RB who isn't an optimal fit for our scheme especially when considering the HUGE opportunity cost of bypassing the most important position on the field, the quarterback. Also if you look at the this time last year you'll find the exact same 'wait till next year' and we haven't seen enough of Charlie Frye and we can't afford to take a QB excuse. We can't afford the opportunity cost, the wasted development time, the draft opportunity to bypass a franchise QB in this draft.
One thing I'd like to add about the Orlando Brown thing is that not only were the Browns forced to eat Zeus' contract, but the league forced Carmen Policy to try and get Zeus to sign an agreement that he wouldn't sue the NFL. Up until that point, the blinded leader of an expansion OL was only talking about coming back and making the Browns a team to be proud of again. After he was approached by Carmen, he vowed that he would never play for us again and I think he picked Baltimore to piss the team brass off even more.
That is entirely correct, Policy was the whipping boi of Tags and of the other owners and had to do their bidding as Browns fans suffered just as we are suffering every year wasted without a legit and talented quarterback.