footballman_696969
Footballguy
I remember reading this back in May and making a mental note to come back to it in August before I started doing my drafts. A lot of good points in here that can certainly help us prepare for the 2010 season.
Quarterbacks
1. No shame in picking a QB early - Brees, Manning, and Rodgers gave a great return on investment. Brady had a rough stretch in the second half of the season, but he wasn't a bust of a 2nd/3rd round pick by any measure. The next four QBs off the board - Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Romo - were all fine everyweek starting options. If you took any of the consensus top eight QBs, you were happy with your pick.
2. Matt Schaub is not injury-prone - If your game plan was to wait until 8-9 QBs are off the board and then take Schaub, you had the best strategy at QB in 2009. Schaub played every game despite a separated non-throwing shoulder, and save for the week 1 debacle vs the Jets, he was as consistent as any fantasy QB.
3. There are landmines in the 9-15 range, but there are great values, too. - Carson Palmer returning to form never happened because the Bengals have absorbed the DNA of their AFC North brothers and become a running/defense heavy team (not to mention Palmer's throwing elbow might not be right). Jay Cutler looked like Jake Delhomme. Matt Ryan got hurt and never really had a hot streak when he was healthy. Matt Hasselbeck looked like a QB at the end of his career. Matt Cassel was harmless in Todd Haley's offense. David Garrard barely looked like an NFL starter on the road. On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger finally got to show off his considerable passing talent in a balanced-to-pass heavy offense, Eli Manning was productive with a stable of young talents at WR. Joe Flacco had a couple of nice stretches where you could rely on him. If you doubled up on QB because you were one of the last teams to take one, chances are you got a viable QB, because Ben and Eli were often the "safe" pick to hedge a Ryan/Cutler/Garrard riskier QB1.
4. The preseason breakout candidates failed, but a few QBs came back from the dead. - Kyle Orton and Trent Edwards never made the leap that some saw coming, but Brett Favre was a revelation, and both Alex Smith and Vince Young ended up being solid starts for most of the second half of the season.
5. There is no wrong strategy at QB, but depth will make waiting the best call in 2010 once again. - I dont blame you if you take Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady early. I don't blame you if take a Schaub/Rivers/Romo/McNabb when they fall to the 5th or 6th round. If Favre returns, adding Big Ben and Eli will make 11 very solid QB options to start the season. Not to mention you can take a Cutler/Ryan as a backup in the next round. Flacco/Henne/VY/ASmith/Stafford/Freeman/Leinart will all be backup picks with upside. Even if you don't hit on any picks, you'll likely get first choice of any WW QBs because so many people will be set at the position.
6. We were treated to a quiet year in terms of QB injuries. - Sure, Warner and Roethlisberger missed a game. Ryan and McNabb missed a couple of games, too. Still, we didn't see any marquee QBs go down for extended periods, which is great for fantasy and great for the NFL. Perhaps it will make drafting a backup QB seem even less important in 2010 drafts, which will make the value extend even deeper into your draft.
7. Look out for Matt Moore and Bruce Gradkowski next year. - Both revived sputtering passing games in the second half of the season, and both earned the chance to at least compete for the job in camp in 2010.
Running Backs
1. Size Doesn't Matter - Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, none of these guys look like the archetype stud back, except if you want to utter the holiest of holy comparisons - Barry Sanders.
2. There is no secret code to determine the best old RBs to rely on - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. LaDainian Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet, Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones looked like they were in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up. Chester Taylor could be a surprise stud in 2010 on a new team at age 30.
3. Don't fear the veteran stalked by the rookie - Tim Hightower, Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, and Correll Buckhalter all outperformed expectations despite being on a team that made a strong investment in a rookie back. Jerome Harrison, Cadillac Williams, and Steve Slaton could be value picks next year under this theory.
4. Beware the overperforming rookie starter in his second year - Steve Slaton and Matt Forte both burned owners who spent first-round picks expecting 08 production levels in 09. Both came into 2009 as the starter. Of course, Chris Johnson could be considered the exception, one size never fits all when it comes to trends. No 2009 rookies will qualify for this designation in 2010.
5. Take a chance on the underperforming rookie backup/committee back in his second year at a discount - Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles all came a discount because of stumbling blocks they tripped over in 2008. All had to evict veterans from the starting spot, and they did, in Mendenhall's case the week after getting benched - Charles also had to overcome some coaches doubts. Jonathan Stewart's return on investment was good enough as his good weeks often came in good matchups + he brought it home in week 16 even though he shared with DeAngelo - he didn't underperform in 08 as much he remained firmly blocked in 09. Felix Jones is the exception here, and Darren McFadden was a crushing bust, but no discount. Donald Brown fits this description the best for '10, but LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Shonn Greene, and even Beanie Wells will probably valued on point or undervalued heading into 2010 drafts.
6. Bad QB play can defang an otherwise studly back - Exhibit A Steven Jackson, Exhibit B DeAngelo Williams. Matt Moore may make Williams a top 5 back again. Steven Jackson will still justifiably go in the first because he was still strong in a terrible offense, if STL's offense can come together at all, even just spread the field and set up better running lanes like KC, then Jackson could be back in the top 5.
7. When everyone in your league passes on a starter 6-7 times, they probably aren't a good pick - In just about every draft, Julius Jones and Jamal Lewis were the last two starters off the board, and they did much less to help their teams than upside picks around the same part of the draft like Charles, Mendenhall, and Laurence Maroney. Of course, the next tier up of starters who weren't buzz backs and fell included Addai, TJones, and Cedric Benson (and Willie Parker and Larry Johnson), so there are values to be found picking starters who slide, just avoid the guys you wouldn't even consider taking if it wasn't for their place on the depth chart - take a chance on the underrated starter who finished strong in the previous year.
8. Coaches can be frustrating, believe in talent - Michael Bush showed flashes at the beginning and end of the year, but never got a chance to get into a rhythm. Jerome Harrison had a strong game as the starter vs. Cincinnati early in the season, but had to have the third best rushing performance in NFL history to finally win the job outright. Justin Forsett confirmed that he was a better back than Julius Jones when Jones got hurt, but was forced to share with Jones when he returned from injury.
9. Bounce back candidates in 2010? - I'm not sure what to make of the cases of Michael Turner (hard-luck injury just when he was running like top 3 back again after heavy workload year), Brandon Jacobs (hurt most of the year? squandered terrific situation), Ahmad Bradshaw (seemingly poised to take over job, but health possibly held him back), Darren Sproles (game-breaking plays when he got a lot of touches, but also a convincing argument for him not being a viable back between the tackles), Marshawn Lynch (suspension let underrated back get foot in the door, seeming value turned into back barely worth rostering), and Marion Barber (nicked up and lacking explosion, Short yardage TD opportunities were sporadic). All could be good values in 2010.
Wide Receivers
1. Stud WRs are safe investments - Of the consensus top four WRs (Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson), only one failed to finish in the top 6 WR in PPR leagues. Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker were also studs that went in the top 10-12 WR of most drafts. Other WRs that were in the top 10-12 WRs of most drafts (Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith) managed to finish in the top 20-25 WRs, none were unmitigated busts.
2. New offensive-minded head coaches can trick us into seeing a breakout where there is none - A lot of us got took by spending a 3rd/4th round pick on Dwayne Bowe or Eddie Royal because the new head coaches there had overseen offenses with stud WRs at their previous jobs. Bowe seemed like a good facsimile for Boldin and Royal for Welker, but the offenses never really got humming, and neither ever got in a groove.
3. Don't confuse wideouts who get hurt in their second year with busts - Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and Mike Sims-Walker had all shown flashes of greatness in the early parts of their careers, but injuries in 2008 kept them from seizing a bigger role. In 2009, this trio asserted their right to spots among the group of true #1 WRs.
4. More rookie WRs make an impact every year - After a big debut by Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson in '08, a season with no first-round picks at WR, we were wondering which of the first-round WRs of 09 could be productive early. Answer: All of them (well, except for Heyward-Bey). Michael Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, and Kenny Britt all had fantasy relevance this year, and all will be good upside picks next year. WRs drafted later on like Mike Wallace, Johnny Knox, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie all got on the fantasy radar with play that exceeded expectations. Out with the old, in with the new.
5. Avoid damaged goods - Donnie Avery, Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, and Chaz Schilens all came into the season recovering from injuries/surgeries that kept us from seeing them much in August, and none of them ever came close to providing the kind of value promised by strong stretches in 2008.
6. Don't bet a premium pick on the WR without a good QB - Calvin Johnson and Antonio Bryant defied this one in 2008, only to see Calvin submarined by it this year. Some folks got snookered spending a 3rd-5th on Braylon Edwards or Terrell Owens even though they had no proven QB to speak of. Lee Evans was also a complete bust because of poor QB play.
7. Old WRs that you can set your watch by continue to be undervalued - Same names as always, Hines Ward, Donald Driver, Derrick Mason... all outproduced their draft slot. Of course, Torry Holt and Laveranues Coles were barely rosterable despite similar expectations, but the shark play continues to be taking that WR in the 7-9th round that everyone has avoided because they are waiting for the breakdown year.
8. The fifth round is about where reward outweighs risk when forecasting breakouts/Continuity is good - Earlier I mentioned Royal and Bowe letting us down because forecasted breakouts never happened. A round or two later you could have grabbed similar players like Santonio Holmes, Vincent Jackson, and DeSean Jackson, all of which were keys to putting together a strong team in start 3 WR leagues. The other difference here is that all of this group entered 2009 with the same QB and head coach as 2008.
9. Late round WR picks should focus on youth with good to great QBs throwing to them - Mario Manningham, Robert Meachem, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon were all great late round picks (along with some of the rookies and MSW, Rice, and Austin), and other than MSW, they all have good to great passing QBs. Guys like James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace, and Legedu Naanee could be great late picks on this theory next year.
10. Patience, Grasshopper - Top-end WRs like Roddy White, Miles Austin, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, and Vincent Jackson all had slumps, but owners who stuck with them were rewarded.
11. Roy Williams is just not that good - No explanation needed here.
12. Take a chance on the diva WR who is dropping too far because of August drama - Brandon Marshall was a massive value because he was looking like a guy who might not even be active on gamedays early in the season. Michael Crabtree's holdout caused him to fall out of some drafts. Dwayne Bowe would be the exception here except his price never really dropped while he and Todd Haley were at odds in the preseason.
13. Odds and ends - I'm not sure what the takeaway is from: Ochocinco flourishing despite a de-emphasized passing game, Houshmandzadeh bombing despite being on a pass-first team. I'm not sure what to make of Steve Smith filling a #1 WR vacuum wonderfully and Devin Hester seeming to only to be outperformed by Devin Aromashodu when he got hurt. Kevin Walter gave way to Owen Daniels as the #2 option in the Houston passing game and didn't really step up his numbers when Daniels went out. Bernard Berrian was somewhat brittle again and fell to the #3 option on a team that he was the #1 on last year.
Quarterbacks
1. No shame in picking a QB early - Brees, Manning, and Rodgers gave a great return on investment. Brady had a rough stretch in the second half of the season, but he wasn't a bust of a 2nd/3rd round pick by any measure. The next four QBs off the board - Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Romo - were all fine everyweek starting options. If you took any of the consensus top eight QBs, you were happy with your pick.
2. Matt Schaub is not injury-prone - If your game plan was to wait until 8-9 QBs are off the board and then take Schaub, you had the best strategy at QB in 2009. Schaub played every game despite a separated non-throwing shoulder, and save for the week 1 debacle vs the Jets, he was as consistent as any fantasy QB.
3. There are landmines in the 9-15 range, but there are great values, too. - Carson Palmer returning to form never happened because the Bengals have absorbed the DNA of their AFC North brothers and become a running/defense heavy team (not to mention Palmer's throwing elbow might not be right). Jay Cutler looked like Jake Delhomme. Matt Ryan got hurt and never really had a hot streak when he was healthy. Matt Hasselbeck looked like a QB at the end of his career. Matt Cassel was harmless in Todd Haley's offense. David Garrard barely looked like an NFL starter on the road. On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger finally got to show off his considerable passing talent in a balanced-to-pass heavy offense, Eli Manning was productive with a stable of young talents at WR. Joe Flacco had a couple of nice stretches where you could rely on him. If you doubled up on QB because you were one of the last teams to take one, chances are you got a viable QB, because Ben and Eli were often the "safe" pick to hedge a Ryan/Cutler/Garrard riskier QB1.
4. The preseason breakout candidates failed, but a few QBs came back from the dead. - Kyle Orton and Trent Edwards never made the leap that some saw coming, but Brett Favre was a revelation, and both Alex Smith and Vince Young ended up being solid starts for most of the second half of the season.
5. There is no wrong strategy at QB, but depth will make waiting the best call in 2010 once again. - I dont blame you if you take Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady early. I don't blame you if take a Schaub/Rivers/Romo/McNabb when they fall to the 5th or 6th round. If Favre returns, adding Big Ben and Eli will make 11 very solid QB options to start the season. Not to mention you can take a Cutler/Ryan as a backup in the next round. Flacco/Henne/VY/ASmith/Stafford/Freeman/Leinart will all be backup picks with upside. Even if you don't hit on any picks, you'll likely get first choice of any WW QBs because so many people will be set at the position.
6. We were treated to a quiet year in terms of QB injuries. - Sure, Warner and Roethlisberger missed a game. Ryan and McNabb missed a couple of games, too. Still, we didn't see any marquee QBs go down for extended periods, which is great for fantasy and great for the NFL. Perhaps it will make drafting a backup QB seem even less important in 2010 drafts, which will make the value extend even deeper into your draft.
7. Look out for Matt Moore and Bruce Gradkowski next year. - Both revived sputtering passing games in the second half of the season, and both earned the chance to at least compete for the job in camp in 2010.
Running Backs
1. Size Doesn't Matter - Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, none of these guys look like the archetype stud back, except if you want to utter the holiest of holy comparisons - Barry Sanders.
2. There is no secret code to determine the best old RBs to rely on - Clinton Portis starts to show signs of breaking down ay 28. LaDainian Tomlinson is clearly in his victory lap. We wondered if Westbrook would even play again for a few days. Yet, Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones looked like they were in their prime, and they're over 30. The veterans who haven't been ridden into the ground every year of their career can still have a lot of gas in the tank at the end of the road. Jones and Williams will be undervalued again next year, neither looks like a cliff is coming up. Chester Taylor could be a surprise stud in 2010 on a new team at age 30.
3. Don't fear the veteran stalked by the rookie - Tim Hightower, Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, and Correll Buckhalter all outperformed expectations despite being on a team that made a strong investment in a rookie back. Jerome Harrison, Cadillac Williams, and Steve Slaton could be value picks next year under this theory.
4. Beware the overperforming rookie starter in his second year - Steve Slaton and Matt Forte both burned owners who spent first-round picks expecting 08 production levels in 09. Both came into 2009 as the starter. Of course, Chris Johnson could be considered the exception, one size never fits all when it comes to trends. No 2009 rookies will qualify for this designation in 2010.
5. Take a chance on the underperforming rookie backup/committee back in his second year at a discount - Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles all came a discount because of stumbling blocks they tripped over in 2008. All had to evict veterans from the starting spot, and they did, in Mendenhall's case the week after getting benched - Charles also had to overcome some coaches doubts. Jonathan Stewart's return on investment was good enough as his good weeks often came in good matchups + he brought it home in week 16 even though he shared with DeAngelo - he didn't underperform in 08 as much he remained firmly blocked in 09. Felix Jones is the exception here, and Darren McFadden was a crushing bust, but no discount. Donald Brown fits this description the best for '10, but LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Shonn Greene, and even Beanie Wells will probably valued on point or undervalued heading into 2010 drafts.
6. Bad QB play can defang an otherwise studly back - Exhibit A Steven Jackson, Exhibit B DeAngelo Williams. Matt Moore may make Williams a top 5 back again. Steven Jackson will still justifiably go in the first because he was still strong in a terrible offense, if STL's offense can come together at all, even just spread the field and set up better running lanes like KC, then Jackson could be back in the top 5.
7. When everyone in your league passes on a starter 6-7 times, they probably aren't a good pick - In just about every draft, Julius Jones and Jamal Lewis were the last two starters off the board, and they did much less to help their teams than upside picks around the same part of the draft like Charles, Mendenhall, and Laurence Maroney. Of course, the next tier up of starters who weren't buzz backs and fell included Addai, TJones, and Cedric Benson (and Willie Parker and Larry Johnson), so there are values to be found picking starters who slide, just avoid the guys you wouldn't even consider taking if it wasn't for their place on the depth chart - take a chance on the underrated starter who finished strong in the previous year.
8. Coaches can be frustrating, believe in talent - Michael Bush showed flashes at the beginning and end of the year, but never got a chance to get into a rhythm. Jerome Harrison had a strong game as the starter vs. Cincinnati early in the season, but had to have the third best rushing performance in NFL history to finally win the job outright. Justin Forsett confirmed that he was a better back than Julius Jones when Jones got hurt, but was forced to share with Jones when he returned from injury.
9. Bounce back candidates in 2010? - I'm not sure what to make of the cases of Michael Turner (hard-luck injury just when he was running like top 3 back again after heavy workload year), Brandon Jacobs (hurt most of the year? squandered terrific situation), Ahmad Bradshaw (seemingly poised to take over job, but health possibly held him back), Darren Sproles (game-breaking plays when he got a lot of touches, but also a convincing argument for him not being a viable back between the tackles), Marshawn Lynch (suspension let underrated back get foot in the door, seeming value turned into back barely worth rostering), and Marion Barber (nicked up and lacking explosion, Short yardage TD opportunities were sporadic). All could be good values in 2010.
Wide Receivers
1. Stud WRs are safe investments - Of the consensus top four WRs (Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson), only one failed to finish in the top 6 WR in PPR leagues. Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker were also studs that went in the top 10-12 WR of most drafts. Other WRs that were in the top 10-12 WRs of most drafts (Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith) managed to finish in the top 20-25 WRs, none were unmitigated busts.
2. New offensive-minded head coaches can trick us into seeing a breakout where there is none - A lot of us got took by spending a 3rd/4th round pick on Dwayne Bowe or Eddie Royal because the new head coaches there had overseen offenses with stud WRs at their previous jobs. Bowe seemed like a good facsimile for Boldin and Royal for Welker, but the offenses never really got humming, and neither ever got in a groove.
3. Don't confuse wideouts who get hurt in their second year with busts - Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and Mike Sims-Walker had all shown flashes of greatness in the early parts of their careers, but injuries in 2008 kept them from seizing a bigger role. In 2009, this trio asserted their right to spots among the group of true #1 WRs.
4. More rookie WRs make an impact every year - After a big debut by Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson in '08, a season with no first-round picks at WR, we were wondering which of the first-round WRs of 09 could be productive early. Answer: All of them (well, except for Heyward-Bey). Michael Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, and Kenny Britt all had fantasy relevance this year, and all will be good upside picks next year. WRs drafted later on like Mike Wallace, Johnny Knox, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie all got on the fantasy radar with play that exceeded expectations. Out with the old, in with the new.
5. Avoid damaged goods - Donnie Avery, Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, and Chaz Schilens all came into the season recovering from injuries/surgeries that kept us from seeing them much in August, and none of them ever came close to providing the kind of value promised by strong stretches in 2008.
6. Don't bet a premium pick on the WR without a good QB - Calvin Johnson and Antonio Bryant defied this one in 2008, only to see Calvin submarined by it this year. Some folks got snookered spending a 3rd-5th on Braylon Edwards or Terrell Owens even though they had no proven QB to speak of. Lee Evans was also a complete bust because of poor QB play.
7. Old WRs that you can set your watch by continue to be undervalued - Same names as always, Hines Ward, Donald Driver, Derrick Mason... all outproduced their draft slot. Of course, Torry Holt and Laveranues Coles were barely rosterable despite similar expectations, but the shark play continues to be taking that WR in the 7-9th round that everyone has avoided because they are waiting for the breakdown year.
8. The fifth round is about where reward outweighs risk when forecasting breakouts/Continuity is good - Earlier I mentioned Royal and Bowe letting us down because forecasted breakouts never happened. A round or two later you could have grabbed similar players like Santonio Holmes, Vincent Jackson, and DeSean Jackson, all of which were keys to putting together a strong team in start 3 WR leagues. The other difference here is that all of this group entered 2009 with the same QB and head coach as 2008.
9. Late round WR picks should focus on youth with good to great QBs throwing to them - Mario Manningham, Robert Meachem, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon were all great late round picks (along with some of the rookies and MSW, Rice, and Austin), and other than MSW, they all have good to great passing QBs. Guys like James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace, and Legedu Naanee could be great late picks on this theory next year.
10. Patience, Grasshopper - Top-end WRs like Roddy White, Miles Austin, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, and Vincent Jackson all had slumps, but owners who stuck with them were rewarded.
11. Roy Williams is just not that good - No explanation needed here.
12. Take a chance on the diva WR who is dropping too far because of August drama - Brandon Marshall was a massive value because he was looking like a guy who might not even be active on gamedays early in the season. Michael Crabtree's holdout caused him to fall out of some drafts. Dwayne Bowe would be the exception here except his price never really dropped while he and Todd Haley were at odds in the preseason.
13. Odds and ends - I'm not sure what the takeaway is from: Ochocinco flourishing despite a de-emphasized passing game, Houshmandzadeh bombing despite being on a pass-first team. I'm not sure what to make of Steve Smith filling a #1 WR vacuum wonderfully and Devin Hester seeming to only to be outperformed by Devin Aromashodu when he got hurt. Kevin Walter gave way to Owen Daniels as the #2 option in the Houston passing game and didn't really step up his numbers when Daniels went out. Bernard Berrian was somewhat brittle again and fell to the #3 option on a team that he was the #1 on last year.
