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Let's discuss...this years #1 redraft. (1 Viewer)

lebowski

Footballguy
OK... I have seen a lot of dynasty talk around here but not a lot of redraft yet. If this post is a honda in anyway PLEASE provide a link for me. No rankings are out yet, the draft has yet to take place, but I still feel it is time to start the debate. Seems to me that there are 3 players that could be considered the #1 right now... Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson. That being said I personally rank them in the following order...

#1 Larry Johnson

Positives: what an end stretch for this guy. He ended up #2 in fantasy points with starting only 9 games. Despite the fact that the team and OL is aging they still seem to be staying together. Johnson seemed to be running with both vision and speed last year and seems to be the most obvious pick at #1 this year.

Negatives: How will a new coach affect the play calling? From what I have been reading Herm Edwards is a pretty conservative play caller and this could hurt LJ's red zone opportunities. Age of OL is a concern. I still can't help worrying about former uberstud Priest Holmes. Until his retirement is officially announced I will worry about this one (was it announced and I missed it?). Will LJ be the obvious stud he seems to be this year, or could he be the next McGahee or Kevin Jones? Here is a link to some dynasty discussion on LJ if you would like to read some good discussion http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=235833.

#2 Shaun Alexander

Positives: Just finished a record breaking year for TD's and has been one of the most consistent performers in fantasy football over the last three or more years. Seems once again to be the "safe pick" for 2006. Last year Alexander definitely showed vision, speed and power with his running. I could easily be convinced to take him #1 over LJ.

Negatives: The most obvious negative this year is the loss of all pro tackle Steve Hutchingson. No one can really how much this will affect Alexander's numbers even though it seems obvious that it has to affect them some what. This will be the year we find out how talented Alexander really is or is he a product of the system. Another negative I see is his contract. Last year he was running like he had something to prove. Does he have anything else to prove this year?

#3 LaDanian Tomlinson

Positives: One of the most versatile backs in the game today. He runs with vision and speed and can score TD's. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield (and even throw the occasional pass). Tomlinson has been the consensus #1 pick the last two or three years in fantasy football.

Negatives: Tomlinson seems to be the back with the most negatives this year to me. First, there is basically a rookie QB taking over for the Chargers this year. Some may argue that this will help him by getting more check down passes this year. I can't see this as anything but a negative! Teams will key on Tomlinson this year. That being said Tomlinson still has a ton of talent and can make things happen. Second, Tomlinson has been somewhat injury prone the last couple of years. Looking at stats he played in all the games last year and 15 the previous year. Still it seems like he has been playing nicked up the last couple years. Looking at stats though this may be a false statement. Third, the emergence of Antonio Gates takes away from LT in the redzone. Gates is now the number one TE in fantasy football. This has to affect Tomlinson's red zone opportunities.

OK, that is my take on the #1 this year. I really feel that any of the above players could be #1 this year. Let's here your arguments for and against players. There is always a lot of discussion about LJ, so it would be great to get some discussion going about Alexander and Tomlinson. That's it for me...have at it! :popcorn:

 
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Here's my take on the #1 pick. THe choice is between LT, LJ, & SA, we all know that, but each has some ?

LT - New QB, will teams make Rivers beat them, you bet your ### they will. LT will see more 8 man fronts and that stinks

LJ - New Head coach, New OC, and aging OL. He was amazing last year but you don't know what is going to happen to the OL.

SA - Lost his best OL, and get near the dreaded big 30. Can he produce 15+ TDs again?

With all three having questions, I think if you are sitting at #1 it's about the amount of risk you would like to take. Remember Joe's famous words...."You can't win your league with your first round pick, but you can lose it"

Personally, I would rank them LT, LJ, SA, in that order.

 
With all three having questions, I think if you are sitting at #1 it's about the amount of risk you would like to take. Remember Joe's famous words...."You can't win your league with your first round pick, but you can lose it"

Personally, I would rank them LT, LJ, SA, in that order.
Great point, but I think that is the million dollar question..."Who has the most most risk?" Personally I would still see Alexander with the LEAST amount of risk!
 
With all three having questions, I think if you are sitting at #1 it's about the amount of risk you would like to take. Remember Joe's famous words...."You can't win your league with your first round pick, but you can lose it"

Personally, I would rank them LT, LJ, SA, in that order.
Great point, but I think that is the million dollar question..."Who has the most most risk?" Personally I would still see Alexander with the LEAST amount of risk!
Probably, but Herm knows what hes got in the KC offense, and we all know he likes to use a workhorse RB and will run him ALOT.All the skill position players are back for the Cheifs...the question is how will the offense pick up the new system...I dont see Holmes being a big part of things even if he comes back. Hes one hit away from retirement.

That said, Im all over LJ if I draw the #1 pick, and I had Shaun last year. I just think LJ finally gets to showcase his skills over an entire season...

A *bit* more risky than Shaun, but if he stays healthy theres no way he finishes out of the top 3. Thats good enough for me. Theres really no bad pick between Shaun and LJ, IMO. LT is a different story. Without knowing what Rivers will bring to the table, its TOO much of a risk for me at pick 1.

 
OK... I have seen a lot of dynasty talk around here but not a lot of redraft yet. If this post is a honda in anyway PLEASE provide a link for me. No rankings are out yet, the draft has yet to take place, but I still feel it is time to start the debate. Seems to me that there are 3 players that could be considered the #1 right now... Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson. That being said I personally rank them in the following order...

#1 Larry Johnson

Positives: what an end stretch for this guy. He ended up #2 in fantasy points with starting only 9 games. Despite the fact that the team and OL is aging they still seem to be staying together. Johnson seemed to be running with both vision and speed last year and seems to be the most obvious pick at #1 this year.

Negatives: How will a new coach affect the play calling? From what I have been reading Herm Edwards is a pretty conservative play caller and this could hurt LJ's red zone opportunities. Age of OL is a concern. I still can't help worrying about former uberstud Priest Holmes. Until his retirement is officially announced I will worry about this one (was it announced and I missed it?). Will LJ be the obvious stud he seems to be this year, or could he be the next McGahee or Kevin Jones? Here is a link to some dynasty discussion on LJ if you would like to read some good discussion http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=235833.

#2 Shaun Alexander

Positives: Just finished a record breaking year for TD's and has been one of the most consistent performers in fantasy football over the last three or more years. Seems once again to be the "safe pick" for 2006. Last year Alexander definitely showed vision, speed and power with his running. I could easily be convinced to take him #1 over LJ.

Negatives: The most obvious negative this year is the loss of all pro tackle Steve Hutchingson. No one can really how much this will affect Alexander's numbers even though it seems obvious that it has to affect them some what. This will be the year we find out how talented Alexander really is or is he a product of the system. Another negative I see is his contract. Last year he was running like he had something to prove. Does he have anything else to prove this year?

#3 LaDanian Tomlinson

Positives: One of the most versatile backs in the game today. He runs with vision and speed and can score TD's. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield (and even throw the occasional pass). Tomlinson has been the consensus #1 pick the last two or three years in fantasy football.

Negatives: Tomlinson seems to be the back with the most negatives this year to me. First, there is basically a rookie QB taking over for the Chargers this year. Some may argue that this will help him by getting more check down passes this year. I can't see this as anything but a negative! Teams will key on Tomlinson this year. That being said Tomlinson still has a ton of talent and can make things happen. Second, Tomlinson has been somewhat injury prone the last couple of years. Looking at stats he played in all the games last year and 15 the previous year. Still it seems like he has been playing nicked up the last couple years. Looking at stats though this may be a false statement. Third, the emergence of Antonio Gates takes away from LT in the redzone. Gates is now the number one TE in fantasy football. This has to affect Tomlinson's red zone opportunities.

OK, that is my take on the #1 this year. I really feel that any of the above players could be #1 this year. Let's here your arguments for and against players. There is always a lot of discussion about LJ, so it would be great to get some discussion going about Alexander and Tomlinson. That's it for me...have at it! :popcorn:
LT1) QB not a concern since if anything it means more receptions like he had when Brees was still learning. Teams always try to key on LT and this year they will employ more blitzes to get to Rivers, which will open up room for LT. Defenses aren't going to sit back and let a first year QB sit in the pocket and pick them apart.

2) He's one of the most well-conditioned athletes in football. His injuries consist of a torn groin he played through in 2004 and the rib injury that was caused by that malicious #### for the Raiders during a pileup.

3) Gates has already taken away as many TD's as he can having broke the TE TD record. It's not really a concern that he'll go off for 20 or anything and it's still LT's job inside the 5.

4) You didn't mention it, but the biggest concern to me with LT is his OL. They didn't make any moves in free agency and the line is ok as long as everyone is healthy. They play well as a unit even if they all aren't the best O-linemen individually. This is bound to change in the draft and AJ has had a lot of luck drafting OL late so maybe it's not too much of a concern as long as they get a reliable LT to backup Oben.

 
In a PPR league I think you have to take a look at Steve Smith, honestly int he top five.

I think the top three RB spots can go either direction and you would be right.

My top five goes like this though....

#1 Clinton Portis- New o-coordinator will get the ball in this guys hands more than ever before. I am expecting LT type numbers from this guy and if I had the #1 pick, I would really consider taking him.

#2 Larry Johnson- No one has more upside than him. He will dominate again this year but I haven't seen him finish an entire season as the starter. Not really worried though.

#3 Shaun Alexander- Please explain to me what is going to happen now that he has a big fat contract and a super bowl apperance under his belt.

#4 LT- Rivers is the QB. My only worry.

I still think that you can't go wrong with any of these four.

 
#1 Clinton Portis- New o-coordinator will get the ball in this guys hands more than ever before. I am expecting LT type numbers from this guy and if I had the #1 pick, I would really consider taking him.
Youd be better off trading down to mid 1st round and grab a better 2nd and/or 3rd round pick. No way would I take him at #1, but if I honestly felt he was worthy it would be easy as hell to trade down. There would be lots of takers for sure.
 
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In a PPR league I think you have to take a look at Steve Smith, honestly int he top five.

I think the top three RB spots can go either direction and you would be right.

My top five goes like this though....

#1 Clinton Portis- New o-coordinator will get the ball in this guys hands more than ever before. I am expecting LT type numbers from this guy and if I had the #1 pick, I would really consider taking him.

#2 Larry Johnson- No one has more upside than him. He will dominate again this year but I haven't seen him finish an entire season as the starter. Not really worried though.

#3 Shaun Alexander- Please explain to me what is going to happen now that he has a big fat contract and a super bowl apperance under his belt.

#4 LT- Rivers is the QB. My only worry.

I still think that you can't go wrong with any of these four.
This is the stuff that I like. Of course, the "smarter" move would be to trade down to #4 and get whatever you can, knowing that Portis will be available. However, in the event that this could not be accomplished, FF is about build your own team. Build it however you want. Nothing better than having a great season by taking a few risks that were your own, rather than worrying too much about where a player "should" go. This is all within reason, of course.
 
In a PPR league I think you have to take a look at Steve Smith, honestly int he top five.

I think the top three RB spots can go either direction and you would be right.

My top five goes like this though....

#1 Clinton Portis- New o-coordinator will get the ball in this guys hands more than ever before. I am expecting LT type numbers from this guy and if I had the #1 pick, I would really consider taking him.

#2 Larry Johnson- No one has more upside than him. He will dominate again this year but I haven't seen him finish an entire season as the starter. Not really worried though.

#3 Shaun Alexander- Please explain to me what is going to happen now that he has a big fat contract and a super bowl apperance under his belt.

#4 LT- Rivers is the QB. My only worry.

I still think that you can't go wrong with any of these four.
This is the stuff that I like. Of course, the "smarter" move would be to trade down to #4 and get whatever you can, knowing that Portis will be available. However, in the event that this could not be accomplished, FF is about build your own team. Build it however you want. Nothing better than having a great season by taking a few risks that were your own, rather than worrying too much about where a player "should" go. This is all within reason, of course.
Right, both good points. I was speaking more about how I think the season numbers will end up. In the actual draft it would be difficult to pass up LT or SA or LJ for Portis but Portis has been putting up solid numbers, just a lot more quitely than the others. 1516 yards and 11 Touchdowns isn't too shabby and that was before he had a good offensive coordinator. I would be in serious pain though if I had to cheer for Portis for an entire year..... :X

 
In a PPR league I think you have to take a look at Steve Smith, honestly int he top five.

I think the top three RB spots can go either direction and you would be right.

My top five goes like this though....

#1 Clinton Portis- New o-coordinator will get the ball in this guys hands more than ever before. I am expecting LT type numbers from this guy and if I had the #1 pick, I would really consider taking him.

#2 Larry Johnson- No one has more upside than him. He will dominate again this year but I haven't seen him finish an entire season as the starter. Not really worried though.

#3 Shaun Alexander- Please explain to me what is going to happen now that he has a big fat contract and a super bowl apperance under his belt.

#4 LT- Rivers is the QB. My only worry.

I still think that you can't go wrong with any of these four.
Nice to see I'm not alone. I too love the additions that Wash has made this year and none more than Saunders has me excited! The Oline is top 5 and only getting better with real coaching and WR depth should not be a problem anymore. Really the only concern is at QB. How long can Brunell keep it up this year? Is Campbell ready if he is needed? I don't really see these questions as anything greater than what the other 3 #1 possibilties have though. LT, same as Portis, QB ?-marks, push. LJ, oline age concerns, loss of great FB and loss of great OC. Boy, thats a lot of concerns IMO. SA, huge contract. Is he fat and happy? Loss of All Pro Hutch. Can they replace him effectively. From what GB showed last year trying to replace their 2 Pro Bowl Gs, I think we have a legit concern here. My rankings:Portis

LT

Johnson

SA

It's never too early to talk about this BTW. :popcorn:

 
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4) You didn't mention it, but the biggest concern to me with LT is his OL. They didn't make any moves in free agency and the line is ok as long as everyone is healthy. They play well as a unit even if they all aren't the best O-linemen individually. This is bound to change in the draft and AJ has had a lot of luck drafting OL late so maybe it's not too much of a concern as long as they get a reliable LT to backup Oben.
LT's Oline is much better than OK and has been for a few years now.
 
In a PPR league I think you have to take a look at Steve Smith, honestly int he top five.

I think the top three RB spots can go either direction and you would be right.

My top five goes like this though....

#1 Clinton Portis- New o-coordinator will get the ball in this guys hands more than ever before. I am expecting LT type numbers from this guy and if I had the #1 pick, I would really consider taking him.

#2 Larry Johnson- No one has more upside than him. He will dominate again this year but I haven't seen him finish an entire season as the starter. Not really worried though.

#3 Shaun Alexander- Please explain to me what is going to happen now that he has a big fat contract and a super bowl apperance under his belt.

#4 LT- Rivers is the QB. My only worry.

I still think that you can't go wrong with any of these four.
Nice to see I'm not alone. I too love the additions that Wash has made this year and none more than Saunders has me excited! The Oline is top 5 and only getting better with real coaching and WR depth should not be a problem anymore. Really the only concern is at QB. How long can Brunell keep it up this year? Is Campbell ready if he is needed? I don't really see these questions as anything greater than what the other 3 #1 possibilties have though. LT, same as Portis, QB ?-marks, push. LJ, oline age concerns, loss of great FB and loss of great OC. Boy, thats a lot of concerns IMO. SA, huge contract. Is he fat and happy? Loss of All Pro Hutch. Can they replace him effectively. From what GB showed last year trying to replace their 2 Pro Bowl Gs, I think we have a legit concern here. My rankings:Portis

LT

Johnson

SA

It's never too early to talk about this BTW. :popcorn:
Interesting to see Portis ranked by two seperate people ahead of the three I mentioned. He definitely showed some great ability in denver and may have been the best RB in the league if he had stayed there. That being said I would still take LJ, Alexander or Tomlinson over Portis right now. What have you seen in the last couple of years that would justify him being #1 overall? I just can't see it. Could he be #1 overall at the end of the season? Sure, why not. But I would have to say the other 3 have a better chance. However if you truly believe that #4 would be a good pick this year. :yes: Great stuff... keep it coming.

 
OK... the draft is over now and I'm bumpin' this for some post draft discussion. (Especially since Dodds has posted his top 100). Any new opinions out there?

 
4) You didn't mention it, but the biggest concern to me with LT is his OL.  They didn't make any moves in free agency and the line is ok as long as everyone is healthy.  They play well as a unit even if they all aren't the best O-linemen individually.  This is bound to change in the draft and AJ has had a lot of luck drafting OL late so maybe it's not too much of a concern as long as they get a reliable LT to backup Oben.

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LT's Oline is much better than OK and has been for a few years now.
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It was better in 2004 but was the same line in 2005 except that Oben was injured.Marcus McNeill will be groomed for the LT job but at worst will be a good RT. The OL will be ok as long as Oben can return and everyone stays healthy. McNeill will immediately become the backup LT.

 
4) You didn't mention it, but the biggest concern to me with LT is his OL.  They didn't make any moves in free agency and the line is ok as long as everyone is healthy.  They play well as a unit even if they all aren't the best O-linemen individually.  This is bound to change in the draft and AJ has had a lot of luck drafting OL late so maybe it's not too much of a concern as long as they get a reliable LT to backup Oben.

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LT's Oline is much better than OK and has been for a few years now.
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It was better in 2004 but was the same line in 2005 except that Oben was injured.Marcus McNeill will be groomed for the LT job but at worst will be a good RT. The OL will be ok as long as Oben can return and everyone stays healthy. McNeill will immediately become the backup LT.

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IIRC, it was a coaching change that really got this line playing much better more than anything. I agree with you though, McNeil is a great addition and should only make the group better. :thumbup:
 
After my first pass at projections for these three, I was shocked to see LJ in front by a wide margin. I'm sure I'll tweak these numbers a thousand times between now and September, but I don't see any way that I don't end up with LJ ranked #1.

 
One other thing to consider on LT as well -- Schottie with a first year starter at QB (Kosar '85 and Brees '92, IIRC) has made big RB stats: 2 1,000 yd rushers in '85 and arguably LT2's best season

 
Interesting to see Portis ranked by two seperate people ahead of the three I mentioned. He definitely showed some great ability in denver and may have been the best RB in the league if he had stayed there. That being said I would still take LJ, Alexander or Tomlinson over Portis right now. What have you seen in the last couple of years that would justify him being #1 overall? I just can't see it. Could he be #1 overall at the end of the season? Sure, why not. But I would have to say the other 3 have a better chance. However if you truly believe that #4 would be a good pick this year.  :yes:

Great stuff... keep it coming.

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Well, whats not to like about Portis this year? He has always had elite talent. He now has a great Oline, great weapons on the outside and a TE that can scare teams. A great head coach and argueably the best OC in the business as far as RB FF production goes. Like I said, the only ? I see is QB play. Even stating that as a ? is a bit of a reach IMO after you look at the success of Brunell last year.
 
Interesting to see Portis ranked by two seperate people ahead of the three I mentioned. He definitely showed some great ability in denver and may have been the best RB in the league if he had stayed there. That being said I would still take LJ, Alexander or Tomlinson over Portis right now. What have you seen in the last couple of years that would justify him being #1 overall? I just can't see it. Could he be #1 overall at the end of the season? Sure, why not. But I would have to say the other 3 have a better chance. However if you truly believe that #4 would be a good pick this year.  :yes:

Great stuff... keep it coming.

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Well, whats not to like about Portis this year? He has always had elite talent. He now has a great Oline, great weapons on the outside and a TE that can scare teams. A great head coach and argueably the best OC in the business as far as RB FF production goes. Like I said, the only ? I see is QB play. Even stating that as a ? is a bit of a reach IMO after you look at the success of Brunell last year.
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His glasses?
 
Interesting to see Portis ranked by two seperate people ahead of the three I mentioned. He definitely showed some great ability in denver and may have been the best RB in the league if he had stayed there. That being said I would still take LJ, Alexander or Tomlinson over Portis right now. What have you seen in the last couple of years that would justify him being #1 overall? I just can't see it. Could he be #1 overall at the end of the season? Sure, why not. But I would have to say the other 3 have a better chance. However if you truly believe that #4 would be a good pick this year.  :yes:

Great stuff... keep it coming.

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Well, whats not to like about Portis this year? He has always had elite talent. He now has a great Oline, great weapons on the outside and a TE that can scare teams. A great head coach and argueably the best OC in the business as far as RB FF production goes. Like I said, the only ? I see is QB play. Even stating that as a ? is a bit of a reach IMO after you look at the success of Brunell last year.
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His glasses?
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:lmao:
 
Maybe too early still... or maybe most people know they won't get a top 3 pick so they just don' t care. I personally like disussing who the best player in fantasy football will be and then I compare everyone else I want to draft to them. So let's here it... projections are welcome. My projections for the big 3 are...

ruyds tds reyds tds

#1 LJ 1952 26 420 2

#2 SA 1712 23 155 2

#3 LT 1405 17 380 2

 
Maybe too early still... or maybe most people know they won't get a top 3 pick so they just don' t care. I personally like disussing who the best player in fantasy football will be and then I compare everyone else I want to draft to them. So let's here it... projections are welcome. My projections for the big 3 are...

ruyds tds reyds tds

#1 LJ 1952 26 420 2

#2 SA 1712 23 155 2

#3 LT 1405 17 380 2
I just don't see it as that interesting. I find the middle and later rounds far more interesting.Johnson Larry 315 1575 20 41 410 1

Alexander Shaun 350 1610 19 29 197 2

Tomlinson Ladainian 333 1432 17 57 439 2

 
Interesting to see Portis ranked by two seperate people ahead of the three I mentioned. He definitely showed some great ability in denver and may have been the best RB in the league if he had stayed there. That being said I would still take LJ, Alexander or Tomlinson over Portis right now. What have you seen in the last couple of years that would justify him being #1 overall? I just can't see it. Could he be #1 overall at the end of the season? Sure, why not. But I would have to say the other 3 have a better chance. However if you truly believe that #4 would be a good pick this year. :yes:

Great stuff... keep it coming.
Well, whats not to like about Portis this year? He has always had elite talent. He now has a great Oline, great weapons on the outside and a TE that can scare teams. A great head coach and argueably the best OC in the business as far as RB FF production goes. Like I said, the only ? I see is QB play. Even stating that as a ? is a bit of a reach IMO after you look at the success of Brunell last year.
Only thing that worries me about Portis is Betts. Not that I think Tiki will/should be #1, but he never seems to get mentioned with the elite but keeps producing year after year. If he could tack on a couple more td's he'd be up there with the "big 3."

 
Maybe too early still... or maybe most people know they won't get a top 3 pick so they just don' t care. I personally like disussing who the best player in fantasy football will be and then I compare everyone else I want to draft to them. So let's here it... projections are welcome. My projections for the big 3 are...

          ruyds  tds    reyds  tds

#1 LJ  1952    26      420      2

#2 SA  1712    23      155      2

#3 LT  1405    17      380      2
I just don't see it as that interesting. I find the middle and later rounds far more interesting.Johnson Larry 315 1575 20 41 410 1

Alexander Shaun 350 1610 19 29 197 2

Tomlinson Ladainian 333 1432 17 57 439 2
Start a topic on it then...I would be happy to participate. Maybe something like...Who are you targeting for midround steals this year?
 
:blackdot:

bumpity for the beginning of training camps. So far the only running back not affected by training camp is Alexander. LT got hurt and LJ lost some of his OL. What are your new analysis of the big 3. (You can include Portis if you want.)

My new order is this (for no PPR)

LJ- even with the loss of his OL he still looked TOUGH last year. I don't believe the addition of Bennett will hurt LJ at all, every RB needs someone to give them a rest. He has really come down to the pack though in my opinion. I have projected 1600ru 18 TD, 380re 2TD. I could easily be convinced not to take him #1 and I might not take him #1 if I had it because of how hard it is to make predictions for him this year. The obvious concerns for LJ right now are: New coach, OL, loss of FB, Michael Bennett might steal some carries. It is hard to believe I still have him at #1 with all those questions, but I do, for now.

SA- Steady as they come. He will be hurt by the loss of Hutch...so he won't score 28 TD's this year. SOFT schedule this year playing the NFC west and north :thumbup: I see 1680 ru 19 TD 200 re 2 TD (only 3FP's from LJ according to my league rules and may move to #1 soon)

LT- Most talented running back in the league but his OL is not as good as the other two. In addition, he has a VERY tough schedule this year. Throw in the fact that he has been dinged up the last couple seasons and that is why he is my #3. (One plus with him is his handcuff IMO). 1450 ru 16 TD 400 re 2TD.

I know there are a lot of threads on this but I would like to see if peoples opinions have changed and reasons for your rankings. Including projections is nice too. :thumbup:

 
:blackdot: bumpity for the beginning of training camps. So far the only running back not affected by training camp is Alexander. LT got hurt and LJ lost some of his OL. What are your new analysis of the big 3. (You can include Portis if you want.)My new order is this (for no PPR)LJ- even with the loss of his OL he still looked TOUGH last year. I don't believe the addition of Bennett will hurt LJ at all, every RB needs someone to give them a rest. He has really come down to the pack though in my opinion. I have projected 1600ru 18 TD, 380re 2TD. I could easily be convinced not to take him #1 and I might not take him #1 if I had it because of how hard it is to make predictions for him this year. The obvious concerns for LJ right now are: New coach, OL, loss of FB, Michael Bennett might steal some carries. It is hard to believe I still have him at #1 with all those questions, but I do, for now. SA- Steady as they come. He will be hurt by the loss of Hutch...so he won't score 28 TD's this year. SOFT schedule this year playing the NFC west and north :thumbup: I see 1680 ru 19 TD 200 re 2 TD (only 3FP's from LJ according to my league rules and may move to #1 soon)LT- Most talented running back in the league but his OL is not as good as the other two. In addition, he has a VERY tough schedule this year. Throw in the fact that he has been dinged up the last couple seasons and that is why he is my #3. (One plus with him is his handcuff IMO). 1450 ru 16 TD 400 re 2TD. I know there are a lot of threads on this but I would like to see if peoples opinions have changed and reasons for your rankings. Including projections is nice too. :thumbup:
Portis is still #1.
 
I'd take Alexander #1. He lost his best O-Guard and LJ lost his best O-Tackle, A new QB could mean 8-9 in the box for LT. SA plays Arizona, SF and SD in the fantasy playoffs. LJ has Balt, SD and Oakland. LT has Denver, KC and Seattle. This is a huge advantage to SA in my opinion.

 
Portis is still #1.
Yeah, I thought you Portis lovers would be eating this up. Not much has changed for him in beginning of camps. I still don't see more TD's for him though. Why do you see so many more TD's for him this year? Do you think Saunders is going to increase his TD's by that much? I know they got some reciever help, but do you see 18-20 TD's out of him this year? I don't see that big of an increase. I could see 15-16 TD's, but not enough to pass LT and SA (LJ is a different arguement).
 
Portis is still #1.
Yeah, I thought you Portis lovers would be eating this up. Not much has changed for him in beginning of camps. I still don't see more TD's for him though. Why do you see so many more TD's for him this year? Do you think Saunders is going to increase his TD's by that much? I know they got some reciever help, but do you see 18-20 TD's out of him this year? I don't see that big of an increase. I could see 15-16 TD's, but not enough to pass LT and SA (LJ is a different arguement).
I see 18 or 19, beut even 16 like you are saying puts him at LT and SA levels this year IMO.
 
"Only thing that worries me about Portis is Betts." Quote

No needto fear, its been said by Washington Coaches that they want to see Portis carry the rock 25-30 times a game.

Also, think about all the one to five yard touchdowns thrown to Cooley and others last year that will be handed to Portis now.

Portis has more upside than any of the big three this year and needs to be looked at more serious.

 
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Washington also has the 3rd softest run schedule this year and plays against Saints and Rams playoffs weeks 15 and 16 which are very soft. Agian more upside.

 
Washington also has the 3rd softest run schedule this year and plays against Saints and Rams playoffs weeks 15 and 16 which are very soft. Agian more upside.
:goodposting: If you're a Shark, playoff scheduling is a big part of distinguishing picks. It doesn't get much better than Portis on turf against the Saints and Rams.It's looking more and more like the #4 pick (Portis) in redrafts is the best pick in the draft with all of question marks surrounding the "big 3". Give me Portis, his upside, his playoff schedule, and a better pick in the 2nd round instead of the #1, 2, or 3 overall.
 
TGUNZ, if you had or have a the #1 pick in this years draft would take "Kid Bro Sweets" as your first horse in the stable. :hey:

 
TGUNZ, if you had or have a the #1 pick in this years draft would take "Kid Bro Sweets" as your first horse in the stable. :hey:
If I was picking #1, I'd trade down. I think you have a significant chance of getting the #1 RB (Portis) while being able to pick in front of the top 3 on the way back in the 2nd.If I couldn't trade down, I'd strongly consider taking Portis at #1 overall. Consensus rankings are rarely accurate and usually a mirror image of last years final numbers. "sheep" don't win fantasy titles. You've got to draft who you think will have the best #'s this year, unless your 2006 redraft bases it's standings on 2005 stats.Taking Portis #1 may garner a few laughs at your draft, but no one will be laughing at the end of the season when Portis goes over 2000 total yards with 20+ TDs.
 
Noahs Troopers said:
I'd take Alexander #1. He lost his best O-Guard and LJ lost his best O-Tackle, A new QB could mean 8-9 in the box for LT. SA plays Arizona, SF and SD in the fantasy playoffs. LJ has Balt, SD and Oakland. LT has Denver, KC and Seattle. This is a huge advantage to SA in my opinion.
LJ lost 2 linemen and his fullback, not to mention HC and OC. SA lost 1 lineman, not even the best lineman on the team, and still keeps 2 probowlers on the line with a probowl FB (and QB) returning also to a high scoring system they all know like the back of their hands.I'd never considered taking SA #1 until last week with some PMs from the Dude. I think my bias against his weaknesses as an NFL back on MY team kept me from considering it. I'm leaning towards him now. I just don't know enough about Rivers and their line to feel comfortable with LT as #1. I'll most likely take SA (as of now, draft in 1 week) as I think he's the safest bet to stay in the top 3 at season's end. I do think that LJ has the most upside of the 3 and I may well regret it if I take SA. But LJ also carries the most risk, being a new full time starter and RB1 for the Chiefs.
 
Noahs Troopers said:
I'd take Alexander #1. He lost his best O-Guard and LJ lost his best O-Tackle, A new QB could mean 8-9 in the box for LT. SA plays Arizona, SF and SD in the fantasy playoffs. LJ has Balt, SD and Oakland. LT has Denver, KC and Seattle. This is a huge advantage to SA in my opinion.
LJ lost 2 linemen and his fullback, not to mention HC and OC. SA lost 1 lineman, not even the best lineman on the team, and still keeps 2 probowlers on the line with a probowl FB (and QB) returning also to a high scoring system they all know like the back of their hands.

:goodposting:
 
TGUNZ, if you had or have a the #1 pick in this years draft would take "Kid Bro Sweets" as your first horse in the stable. :hey:
If I was picking #1, I'd trade down. I think you have a significant chance of getting the #1 RB (Portis) while being able to pick in front of the top 3 on the way back in the 2nd.If I couldn't trade down, I'd strongly consider taking Portis at #1 overall. Consensus rankings are rarely accurate and usually a mirror image of last years final numbers. "sheep" don't win fantasy titles. You've got to draft who you think will have the best #'s this year, unless your 2006 redraft bases it's standings on 2005 stats.Taking Portis #1 may garner a few laughs at your draft, but no one will be laughing at the end of the season when Portis goes over 2000 total yards with 20+ TDs.
TGUNS, Thanks looks like I might be calling a friend on the West Coast soon. :football:
 
Noahs Troopers said:
I'd take Alexander #1. He lost his best O-Guard and LJ lost his best O-Tackle, A new QB could mean 8-9 in the box for LT. SA plays Arizona, SF and SD in the fantasy playoffs. LJ has Balt, SD and Oakland. LT has Denver, KC and Seattle. This is a huge advantage to SA in my opinion.
LJ lost 2 linemen and his fullback, not to mention HC and OC. SA lost 1 lineman, not even the best lineman on the team, and still keeps 2 probowlers on the line with a probowl FB (and QB) returning also to a high scoring system they all know like the back of their hands.
last i checked KC still has two pro-bowlers on their line, Shields and Waters.
 
Noahs Troopers said:
I'd take Alexander #1. He lost his best O-Guard and LJ lost his best O-Tackle, A new QB could mean 8-9 in the box for LT. SA plays Arizona, SF and SD in the fantasy playoffs. LJ has Balt, SD and Oakland. LT has Denver, KC and Seattle. This is a huge advantage to SA in my opinion.
LJ lost 2 linemen and his fullback, not to mention HC and OC. SA lost 1 lineman, not even the best lineman on the team, and still keeps 2 probowlers on the line with a probowl FB (and QB) returning also to a high scoring system they all know like the back of their hands.
last i checked KC still has two pro-bowlers on their line, Shields and Waters.
The Seahawks also have two pro-bowlers, Jones & Tobeck. They also have pro bowler FB Matt Strong.
 
I will be taking Portis before LT this year, Call it gut feeling, Call it what you want, I dont trust LT to even carry the load for the whole season. Rivers is the QB ----> They will try to lean on LT too heavy too early, combine that with a heavy workload last year ----> LT makes it midway and breaks down (If not even sooner ) ------> M. Turner get to show his true value and gets a contract with another team next year.

If you gotta take him I think Turner is a must handcuff this year, Even more so than Bennet / Morris / Betts

 
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lebowski said:
jurb26 said:
Portis is still #1.
Yeah, I thought you Portis lovers would be eating this up. Not much has changed for him in beginning of camps. I still don't see more TD's for him though. Why do you see so many more TD's for him this year? Do you think Saunders is going to increase his TD's by that much? I know they got some reciever help, but do you see 18-20 TD's out of him this year? I don't see that big of an increase. I could see 15-16 TD's, but not enough to pass LT and SA (LJ is a different arguement).
I think Portis will set the new record. I have him with 32 TDs this year rushing and 5 receiving.
 
Nice to see I'm not alone. I too love the additions that Wash has made this year and none more than Saunders has me excited! The Oline is top 5 and only getting better with real coaching and WR depth should not be a problem anymore. Really the only concern is at QB. How long can Brunell keep it up this year? Is Campbell ready if he is needed? I don't really see these questions as anything greater than what the other 3 #1 possibilties have though. LT, same as Portis, QB ?-marks, push. LJ, oline age concerns, loss of great FB and loss of great OC. Boy, thats a lot of concerns IMO. SA, huge contract. Is he fat and happy? Loss of All Pro Hutch. Can they replace him effectively. From what GB showed last year trying to replace their 2 Pro Bowl Gs, I think we have a legit concern here. My rankings:PortisLTJohnsonSAIt's never too early to talk about this BTW. :popcorn:
I agree with you on Portis. Although my projections have Johnson just ahead of Portis, I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see Portis end up at #1. Al Saunders really makes me believe in Portis. Talent + Opportunity + System = Fantasy Production. Portis is way up there in ALL THREE areas. LJ's system worries me, as it's clearly not as good as the Al Saunders fantasy gold RB system.I share other's similar concerns about Tomlinson and Alexander. One darkhorse that hasn't been mentioned is Ronnie Brown. I wouldn't be shocked if he cracked the top 3. Talent? Check. Opportunity? Check. System? I'm not quite as sure - will he get enough goalline looks? Brown will get the carries and the yards, but I'm not sure if the TDs can reach the 20 mark like it can with the other guys mentioned.
 
If I was picking #1, I'd trade down. I think you have a significant chance of getting the #1 RB (Portis) while being able to pick in front of the top 3 on the way back in the 2nd.If I couldn't trade down, I'd strongly consider taking Portis at #1 overall. Consensus rankings are rarely accurate and usually a mirror image of last years final numbers. "sheep" don't win fantasy titles. You've got to draft who you think will have the best #'s this year, unless your 2006 redraft bases it's standings on 2005 stats.Taking Portis #1 may garner a few laughs at your draft, but no one will be laughing at the end of the season when Portis goes over 2000 total yards with 20+ TDs.
Someone please fill me in. Does TommyGunZ's endorsement of Portis mean that Portis will suck this year?TIA, will answer yours.
 
If I was picking #1, I'd trade down. I think you have a significant chance of getting the #1 RB (Portis) while being able to pick in front of the top 3 on the way back in the 2nd.If I couldn't trade down, I'd strongly consider taking Portis at #1 overall. Consensus rankings are rarely accurate and usually a mirror image of last years final numbers. "sheep" don't win fantasy titles. You've got to draft who you think will have the best #'s this year, unless your 2006 redraft bases it's standings on 2005 stats.Taking Portis #1 may garner a few laughs at your draft, but no one will be laughing at the end of the season when Portis goes over 2000 total yards with 20+ TDs.
Someone please fill me in. Does TommyGunZ's endorsement of Portis mean that Portis will suck this year?TIA, will answer yours.
pretty much ;) i like Portis too, but not as much as LJ. The difference in ppg production between Portis last year and LJ's 9 starts is just too much for me. In ppr format, LJ was at 32.7 ppg over those 9 starts, Portis had 16.8 ppg over the whole season. That's almost 2x. While Portis' production should increase, and LJ's will definitely decrease, that's a lot of ground to make up.
 
Noahs Troopers said:
I'd take Alexander #1. He lost his best O-Guard and LJ lost his best O-Tackle, A new QB could mean 8-9 in the box for LT. SA plays Arizona, SF and SD in the fantasy playoffs. LJ has Balt, SD and Oakland. LT has Denver, KC and Seattle. This is a huge advantage to SA in my opinion.
LJ lost 2 linemen and his fullback, not to mention HC and OC. SA lost 1 lineman, not even the best lineman on the team, and still keeps 2 probowlers on the line with a probowl FB (and QB) returning also to a high scoring system they all know like the back of their hands.
last i checked KC still has two pro-bowlers on their line, Shields and Waters.
True, but LJ has still lost more talent on the line (3 starters gone vs. 1), as well as continuity, than did SA. The current replacement for Hutch has been the 6th lineman for years there and has filled in across the line as needed. The entire line has played together for almost 5 years! Not to mention FB Strong, who has long deserved a probowl nod prior to this year. I'm looking for consistency at the #1 spot. To my thinking, LJ has lost too much or changed too much to be comfortable, wheras SA has been Mr Consistentcy for over 4 years now, coming off the best TD season a RB has ever had. LJ's loss of 3 key blockers has me worried. An OG is easier to replace than either tackle, especially when sandwiched between All World LT Jones and Uber Veteran probowl center Tobeck.This isn't to be a treatise on why SA is a better pick than LJ. I'm looking at factors to he;p make my decision. And OL/coaching factors are greatly in SA's favor.
 
An OG is easier to replace than either tackle, especially when sandwiched between All World LT Jones and Uber Veteran probowl center Tobeck.
pass blocking, i'd agree. run blocking, guard and tackle are just as vital to meand i consider the loss of Richardson to have minimal effect
This isn't to be a treatise on why SA is a better pick than LJ. I'm looking at factors to he;p make my decision. And OL/coaching factors are greatly in SA's favor.
to me it's not about who's production will drop more. will LJ's production as a starter drop enough to put him below Alexander? 32.7 ppg (ppr) over his 9 starts vs. 23.7 ppg for Alexander last year. i've got about a 30% drop for LJ, and about a 10% drop for Alexander, which still has LJ on top.
 
lebowski said:
jurb26 said:
Portis is still #1.
Yeah, I thought you Portis lovers would be eating this up. Not much has changed for him in beginning of camps. I still don't see more TD's for him though. Why do you see so many more TD's for him this year? Do you think Saunders is going to increase his TD's by that much? I know they got some reciever help, but do you see 18-20 TD's out of him this year? I don't see that big of an increase. I could see 15-16 TD's, but not enough to pass LT and SA (LJ is a different arguement).
I think Portis will set the new record. I have him with 32 TDs this year rushing and 5 receiving.
:popcorn:
 

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