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Let's Play Devil's Advocate: (Jags Win) (1 Viewer)

Neil Beaufort Zod

Footballguy
With a historic point spread in the Den/Jax game, most people are talking about the fantasy potential of Jaguars players...because the Broncos will probably rest starters some time in the third quarter. Even with such a great team playing such a bad team, that seems pretty presumptive in the NFL.

I'm going to try and map out some ways the Jaguars could pull off the unlikely upset. Feel free to add your own (not "The Broncos get lost on the way to the stadium" or "MRSA breakout in Denver" or whatever). I mean, is it that certain the game will be out of hand at halftime?

How about this:

* Henne at QB gives them a better passing game. The Dallas game showed Denver is vulnerable and Champ isn't at full strength even if he plays.

* MJD is due for a big game

* The Broncos are due for a flat game. At the very least, a slow start (they didn't start out strong the first two games of the year).

* Blackmon and Shorts aren't chopped liver. They can make plays.

* Maybe Ball fumbles and it leads to a score. Or there's a special teams breakdown after a punt or kickoff.

Any combination of those things and it could be a 31-21 game, which would be pretty respectable. An extra bounce here or there and maybe Jacksonville plays inspired enough to make it a toss-up. I'm not saying this is likely, but I'm surprised everyone (not just here; the media) is so certain its a massacre.

 

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
Henne will have to play the game of his LIFE with a near-perfect passer rating, and outscore the Broncos, 48-45. That's the only way.

 

ckalltheway

Footballguy
A lot of people use the expression "I'd bet my house on this." I'm not a gambler but I'd my house on the Broncos winning this game. I just cant imagine a scenario that has the Jags winning uless Peyton got hurt in the 1st play of the game or something.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
I think the jags covering the spread isn't a bad bet at all. I see about a 1 in 500 chance of winning though.

Mainly, the Denver defense isn't that great. So the jags should score some points.

But to me, a 10 point game would be considered a nail biter here.

 

ROYALWITCHEESE

Footballguy
Jax would need 3-4 Denver turnovers, 2 def/ST TD, and some bad weather to wreck the passing game. Then they might lose by only 10.

 

Otis

Footballguy
I think the jags covering the spread isn't a bad bet at all. I see about a 1 in 500 chance of winning though.
Agreed and that's the problem on betting this game. Most books I can find won't let you bet on DEN outright, and as much as Denver could beat them by 50, I can't see betting on any team to cover 27 points. Nuts.

 

Tool

Footballguy
I also wonder if the fact that there's so much focus on the point spread if that might mess with things just a little. And how much will the broncos run up the score to cover the spread, or sit on it not cover the spread

 
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jvdesigns2002

Footballguy
There is a popular sports betting site that has Jacksonville to outright beat the broncos odds at a +4000--which basically means they put the odds of this happening at approximately 2.5%. If anybody seriously sees this as happening--you can literally get 40-1 on your money. I don't see it happening--but Denvers defense did look pretty bad last week. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Jags at least cover the spread.

 

JAMES!

Footballguy
The spread is way to high given that it's not a good spot at all for Denver. Coming off that crazy game in Dallas and have to go to Indy next week with all of the Manning hoopla that goes with that. In the last 40 years only 8 team have been favored by 21 or more and only 1 has covered. Jax just got Blackmon back last week which obviously helps the offense tremendously. Look at what the return Gordon did for the Browns offense. I'm not saying the jags win but people talking about Denver resting their starters after halftime are nuts. This will be a closer game than 28 points. You have a team feeling totally disrespected in Jacksonville. Players tend to get fired up when that happens. Just look back a few weeks ago to the Browns after the Richardson trade.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Broncos fumble the ball away two or three times. Manning has passes tipped at the line and downfield for two INTs. Blackmon and Shorts break a handful of big plays. MJD converts a few short yardage and/or goal line runs.

Look what the Texans/Jags game looked like last year. Anything is possible.

 
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Mile High

Footballguy
Bronco players/coaches have been saying all the right things this week. They are taking this game just like any other in "That on any given Sunday". They are focused and aren't looking past Jacksonville.

 

devouredbychaos

Footballguy
This has trap game written all over it for the Broncos, and to be honest..I think they WILL lose. Broncos pass defense is 31st or 32nd in the league, they look awful. Remember KC and GB in 2011? Same exact situation. I think the Jags somehow pull it off and embarass the Broncos. All the smug Denver fans who think this game will be over by halftime need to be prepared for a historic letdown.

 

JAMES!

Footballguy
Bronco players/coaches have been saying all the right things this week. They are taking this game just like any other in "That on any given Sunday". They are focused and aren't looking past Jacksonville.
They can say it all they want but saying it and actually being completely focused are two different things. Teams always talk like that in an obvious letdown spot. It has to be next to impossible this week for that team to be dialed in mentally.

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
I was trying to look up the money line in Vegas for the game, the only one I found is -8000 for Denver and 4000 for Jacksonville. Is this even real? I remember my husband and I were in Vegas a few years back and it was when the Packers were unbeaten and playing the Chiefs, I remember him saying how crazy that money line was the Packers were like -1100 and the Chiefs were plus 750 or something like that

 

Lordcoca

Footballguy
I keep thinking of the game two years ago where the Chiefs, with rented quarterback Kyle Orton, went up against the undefeated Green Bay Packers and took them down.

Any given Sunday.

 

Penguin

Footballguy
There is a popular sports betting site that has Jacksonville to outright beat the broncos odds at a +4000--which basically means they put the odds of this happening at approximately 2.5%. If anybody seriously sees this as happening--you can literally get 40-1 on your money. I don't see it happening--but Denvers defense did look pretty bad last week. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Jags at least cover the spread.
That's what they are paying out for the Jags to win, they think it's much less likely than 40-1, the split is roughly 4000, -8000/+4000 making the middle ground around 60-1

 
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Penguin

Footballguy
Most of the big Vegas shops have it right at -27, a lot of the OffShores have it at -26 and I've seen -25.5 more than once.

I forget where it was but someone had it as high as -28.5 -105 a few days ago.

 

Rubi

Footballguy
Some of the scenarios are interesting and certainly could happen IF The Jags were an NFL caliber team,they are not. Sure they have a few good NFL caliber players,but not enough of them in key positions,like The O-line,D-line,linebackers and secondary. The only thing that might keep The Jags under the point spread are the 6 and 7 minute drives Peyton will take Denver on. All that considered,I would make it the biggest upset EVER.

 

comfortably numb

Footballguy
If they come anywhere close to winning this game, MJD will have to have about 197 total yds, and the Jags will win the ball control battle by a good margin.

I don't see anyway where they can battle with them in a shootout.

 

tjnc09

Footballguy
I keep thinking of the game two years ago where the Chiefs, with rented quarterback Kyle Orton, went up against the undefeated Green Bay Packers and took them down.

Any given Sunday.
November 18, 2012 Jacksonville was a 15 point dog to Houston. Henne went for 354 yards and 4 TDs but Jaguars lost in OT 43-37

Peyton plays in Indy next week. I don't think the Jaguars could win but Henne and that Denver secondary should keep it within 4 TDs

 

FantasyTrader

Footballguy
I think the jags covering the spread isn't a bad bet at all. I see about a 1 in 500 chance of winning though.
Agreed and that's the problem on betting this game. Most books I can find won't let you bet on DEN outright, and as much as Denver could beat them by 50, I can't see betting on any team to cover 27 points. Nuts.
You'd think. But there have been 6 instances where a 5(or better)-0 team has faced an 0-5(or worse) team. The favorite has covered the spread ALL 6 times.

 

Faust

MVP
...a disaster of biblical proportions.

What do you mean, "biblical"?

What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.

Exactly.

Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!

Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...

The dead rising from the grave!

Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

All right, all right! I get the point!

 

ShockTheMonkey

Footballguy
A couple of things would have to happen. If I emptied my bank account and put $40,000 on the Broncos moneyline (to win $1000), the Broncos would lose.

But really, what comes in to play is that the Broncos get caught sleeping because it's the LOLjaguars AND Peyton Manning is looking ahead to next week when he plays at Indy.... and has a 5 int 3 fumble Eli-like day.

 

Riversco

Footballguy
Denver is giving up too many points. All it would take to change the calculus is one or two key injuries to the Broncos offense, especially early in the game, that cause the Broncos to limit what they do. Then anything can happen.

Its not like the Broncos are an all-time team with a great offense and defense. The Denver defense really isn't good.

 
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werdnoynek

Footballguy
I think the Jags will put up the points in all honesty, the guy is right... Denver gives up points.

Betting, I'd put the house on the Chiefs come the 17th of November.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
I think the jags covering the spread isn't a bad bet at all. I see about a 1 in 500 chance of winning though.
Agreed and that's the problem on betting this game. Most books I can find won't let you bet on DEN outright, and as much as Denver could beat them by 50, I can't see betting on any team to cover 27 points. Nuts.
You'd think. But there have been 6 instances where a 5(or better)-0 team has faced an 0-5(or worse) team. The favorite has covered the spread ALL 6 times.
The spread wasn't 27. In a agme like this they may be up 35, and pull their starter for a large chunk of the 2nd half, ala the Seattle game.

Here is my bet for the day. The Jags are +19 for the first half...........yes you read that right, for the first HALF. The over/under for the first half is 28.

I was planning to make two separate bets. The first bet is to take the Jags with the points. The second bet of an equal amount of money is to take the OVER.

The ONLY scenario where you can lose both bets is if Jacksonville is held to 3 points or less for the first half, AND the Broncos score between 23-27 points (depending on how much the Jags score).

If Jacksonville kicks two FGs, Denver would have to score 26 points to cover (or 27 if the Jags scored once and it was a TD), in which case you would get the OVER of 32 total points.

The magic number is 5. If the Jags score at least 5 points, you CAN NOT lose both bets.

And even though Jacksonville sucks real, real bad as a team, they do have a couple good weapons, and a QB in Henne who can move the ball a little bit. Plus, Denver's defense is "average" at best really, so I don't see some ridiculous defensive domination by them. I am fairly confident the Jags can muster 6 points. And even if they don't.............it is still quite possible that Denver can get the over by themselves, hence, you wouldn't lose both bets.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Broncos could win LOSE this game sitting all JUST ONE OF their starters
Can you imagine if something crazy happened and Manning was a last minute scratch with no time to adjust the game plan to Osweiler? I'd guess the line would drop by about three touchdowns. Manning might be the best player at beating up on bad teams in the history of the league.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Here is my bet for the day. The Jags are +19 for the first half...........yes you read that right, for the first HALF. The over/under for the first half is 28.

I was planning to make two separate bets. The first bet is to take the Jags with the points. The second bet of an equal amount of money is to take the OVER.

The ONLY scenario where you can lose both bets is if Jacksonville is held to 3 points or less for the first half, AND the Broncos score between 23-27 points (depending on how much the Jags score).

If Jacksonville kicks two FGs, Denver would have to score 26 points to cover (or 27 if the Jags scored once and it was a TD), in which case you would get the OVER of 32 total points.

The magic number is 5. If the Jags score at least 5 points, you CAN NOT lose both bets.
So 24-3 is the only score that will lose you both bets?

 

Sinn Fein

Footballguy
I keep thinking of the game two years ago where the Chiefs, with rented quarterback Kyle Orton, went up against the undefeated Green Bay Packers and took them down.

Any given Sunday.
That game was in KC. I just don't see a bad team go into Mile High, and beat the Broncos this year. Too many things stacked against them. jags just don't have the fire power to keep up, and when they are getting beat, and are gassed from playing at altitude, I don't think they have the same fight the Cowboys had.

I do think KC may be able to play with the Broncos at Aarowhead this year.

Broncos cover this easy. I'd bet the over if anything, though.

 

Sinn Fein

Footballguy
Here is my bet for the day. The Jags are +19 for the first half...........yes you read that right, for the first HALF. The over/under for the first half is 28.

I was planning to make two separate bets. The first bet is to take the Jags with the points. The second bet of an equal amount of money is to take the OVER.

The ONLY scenario where you can lose both bets is if Jacksonville is held to 3 points or less for the first half, AND the Broncos score between 23-27 points (depending on how much the Jags score).

If Jacksonville kicks two FGs, Denver would have to score 26 points to cover (or 27 if the Jags scored once and it was a TD), in which case you would get the OVER of 32 total points.

The magic number is 5. If the Jags score at least 5 points, you CAN NOT lose both bets.
So 24-3 is the only score that will lose you both bets?
:confused: Jags shut out in first half could do it. 20-0 to 27-0

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Here is my bet for the day. The Jags are +19 for the first half...........yes you read that right, for the first HALF. The over/under for the first half is 28.

I was planning to make two separate bets. The first bet is to take the Jags with the points. The second bet of an equal amount of money is to take the OVER.

The ONLY scenario where you can lose both bets is if Jacksonville is held to 3 points or less for the first half, AND the Broncos score between 23-27 points (depending on how much the Jags score).

If Jacksonville kicks two FGs, Denver would have to score 26 points to cover (or 27 if the Jags scored once and it was a TD), in which case you would get the OVER of 32 total points.

The magic number is 5. If the Jags score at least 5 points, you CAN NOT lose both bets.
So 24-3 is the only score that will lose you both bets?
Well no.

27-0 (or any number between 20-27, with Jags scoreless, and 28 would push one bet and lose the other)

23-3

24-3

Basically, if the Jags get either two FGs or one TD, it is IMPOSSIBLE to lose both. And even if the Jags are scoreless, it's very possible the Broncos score over 28 on their own.

It's um..............RARE that you see a +19 for a 1st half spread on an NFL game. Not saying they are a sure thing to cover, I just think its pretty much a sure thing that if they DONT cover, its going OVER

 

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