Let's talk "Injury Risk" (1 Viewer)

[ComfortablyNumb]

At this time of year, I always wonder whether the "injury risk" label is vastly over-emphasized. Football is a very violent game and EVERY player is potentially a play away from a season-ending injury. Undoubtedly, some players suffer more injuries than others, but are they truly "injury prone" or have they just been unlucky?

Tomlinson has missed 1 game in eight seasons, but now that he's 30 and after suffering a couple recent nagging injuries, some are labeling him an injury risk. From '05-'07, McNabb missed 15 games, but after playing in 16 games last season, I'm not hearing much about this year about his injury history. Schaub has missed 5 games in each of the last two seasons because of a few unrelated injuries - does that make him injury prone? Until last season, Tom Brady had played 16 games in six straight years, and look what happened to him. Is Randy Moss injury prone? His time in Oakland might suggest that he is, but his experience in Minn and NE certainly indicate otherwise. That brings me to Brian Westbrook who has never played a full 16-game regular season. Furthermore, he's frequently a frustrating "game time decision". He's probably the most legitimately labeled injury risk, but he does at least usually play 15 games each season.

Obviously, players who enter the season coming off an injury should be drafted with some caution, but should we really consider currently healthy players not named Westbrook an injury risk? Are the players with an injury-free history really more durable, or have they just been fortunate (so far)? Will the law of averages eventually catch up with them a la Jerry Rice (with apologies to you young guys)?

There's probably not a true answer to this somewhat rhetorical question, but I do believe that most fantasy players place too much emphasis on past injuries on draft day.

 

[Pickle Rody]

At this time of year, I always wonder whether the "injury risk" label is vastly over-emphasized. Football is a very violent game and EVERY player is potentially a play away from a season-ending injury. Undoubtedly, some players suffer more injuries than others, but are they truly "injury prone" or have they just been unlucky?

Tomlinson has missed 1 game in eight seasons, but now that he's 30 and after suffering a couple recent nagging injuries, some are labeling him an injury risk. From '05-'07, McNabb missed 15 games, but after playing in 16 games last season, I'm not hearing much about this year about his injury history. Schaub has missed 5 games in each of the last two seasons because of a few unrelated injuries - does that make him injury prone? Until last season, Tom Brady had played 16 games in six straight years, and look what happened to him. Is Randy Moss injury prone? His time in Oakland might suggest that he is, but his experience in Minn and NE certainly indicate otherwise. That brings me to Brian Westbrook who has never played a full 16-game regular season. Furthermore, he's frequently a frustrating "game time decision". He's probably the most legitimately labeled injury risk, but he does at least usually play 15 games each season.

Obviously, players who enter the season coming off an injury should be drafted with some caution, but should we really consider currently healthy players not named Westbrook an injury risk? Are the players with an injury-free history really more durable, or have they just been fortunate (so far)? Will the law of averages eventually catch up with them a la Jerry Rice (with apologies to you young guys)?

There's probably not a true answer to this somewhat rhetorical question, but I do believe that most fantasy players place too much emphasis on past injuries on draft day.

This. I almost never worry about a player who was healthy and performed well the previous year, even if they've had an injury in the past. Now, if a player is coming off an injury the previous year I will definitely do my homework to see if said player is recovering fine or not. I tend to just ignore most prior injuries because I fully believe the "injury prone" label is a myth. See Brian Westbrook.ETA: Okay, maybe Westy is not a good example per se, but you've got to admit, he isn't as injury prone as people make him out to be. Westy seems to be slipping in ADP and that is just a boon for those who do get him. He will definitely outperform his ADP.

 

[MAC_32]

The only players I characterize as injury risks are those that are soft/lack toughness and those that have had injuries that are prone to re aggravation.

The rest? Buy 'em low while others foolishly downgrade them because they're supposedly injury prone.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I agree with all three posters above me.

It seems any player that gets injured more than once is "injury prone", but as soon as that player plays 16 games again, he no longer has that label. That goes to show the fallacy of the label, imo.

To add another name to the injury prone list that is no longer injury prone: Aaron Rodgers. "He is too skinny and can't even make it through a season as a part time QB, he'll never make it 16 games." Now, he's a top 4 QB and considered safe. Yep.