Let's Talk Upper-Middle Class RBs (1 Viewer)

[cormanman]

I’ve got my thoughts and expectations nailed down, with the exception of a group of the running backs I rfer to as the upper-middle class. The group includes LaMont Jordan, Clinton Portis, Caddillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Rudy Johnson, Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee, and Steven Jackson.

I think that James, Portis, and McGahee are the most talented, but they each have questions about their current teams or their health. Jackson and Brown have looked good in stretches, but neither has been a stud for an entire season before. Cadillac has vultures in Alstott and Pittman. Jordan plays for the Raiders, and they are perennially a mess. As for Rudy Johnson, he seems inconsistent from game to game and personally I never felt he was as talented as other upper tier NFL backs.

Right now I am personally ranking these guys in the order listed below, but I find myself changing my mind every other hour. I think most of these guys have a shot at a top 6 finish, and all of them could end up in the top 10. I’d love to have a good discussion to get others feedback on some of these players. I think it might be possible to get two of these guys for those of us picking toward the end of round one and then again at the beginning of round 2 in 10 team and maybe 12 team leagues. IMO, if you can really hit on two of these guys I think you can equal those top three pickers who are getting the real RB studs this year.

Stephen Jackson –

PROS: Finally out of the Martz system; Has no quality back up to steal carries

CONS: May fight foot injury all season; Don’t know effectiveness of new coach/system; Suspect defense could lead to high scores and force the team to abandon the run

Rudi Johnson –

PROS: Great O-Line; Great supporting Cast; Chris Perry is injured and will not vulture the 3rd down carries (at least not at first); Solid defense should assure some pounding the rock late in games

CONS: Does not have natural talent of some of the players in this group; Has an excellent back-up in Perry who could eventually steal many carries and even take the starting job if Rudy is injured or ineffective for an extended period; If Palmer is not 100% or if he is injured again Rudy could become the focus of the offense (which IMO is very bad for Rudy).

Clinton Portis –

PROS: Proven track record; Incredible talent; Great system for RBs; Good defense assures team will grind it out with the run late in games

CONS: Shoulder injury could hamper him all season long; Duckett (aka TD vulture)

Ronnie Brown –

PROS: Will get carries; No quality back-up to steal carries

CONS: Has never been “The Man” by himself before; Cpep, Chambers and McMichael could steal red zone touches; Suspect O-Line

Edgerrin –

PROS: Incredible talent; Will get all the carries on the team; Passing game could be excellent (but of course, Edge is used to that)

CONS: He is too close to 30; He plays for the Cardinals

Cadillac –

PROS: Strong results last season while healthy; Coach is enamored with him; Will get 18-25 carries per game; Good defense assures team will grind it out with the run late in games

CONS: Possible injury issues; Will get pulled inside the 5 for Alstott and possibly on passing downs for Pittman

Willis McGahee –

PROS: Will get a ton of carries; Is expected to play a greater role in passing game; Incredible talent

CONS: He is the only player on the team to fear other than Evans; Passing game may struggle; If defense is not improved the team could be forced to abandon the run

Lamont Jordan –

PROS: Strong results last season; He will get virtually all of the carries and probably a good number of looks in the passing game

CONS: Suspect QB and O-Line; Porter is holding out and Moss is an injury waiting to happen; The effectiveness of Shell’s offense is highly-questionable; Poor defense may force the offense into lots of downfield pass attempts (rather than swing passes out of the backfield)

 

[Dolfan]

In PPR leagues, I'd narrow this list down to R Brown, S Jackson, and E James..

I, too, seem to change my mind every other hour and wish to hell I didn't draw the 5 pick in Sunday's draft (in my big $ league -- big $ for me anyways)...

Based on talent and past experience, James should have the edge, but for some reason, he is the one that I've favored the least so far..

To me I think it is going to come down to offensive line for these three and unfortunately I think they are all three pretty close -- a little below average..

Miami's looked horrible run-blocking last night, but of course, it was Carolina... They have one of the best O-line coaches in the league in Houck and the unit should come together and play a little bit better than they did last year...

I don't know as much about St. Louis and Arizona's O-line, but I do know that Pace was injured, but it does not seem to be serious...

Thoughts on Arizona and St. Louis O-lines -- especially run blocking??

 

[Garts]

In regards to Rudi...who cares about Chris Perry. The guy has barely strung 100 NFL carries and already has a ton more injuries then the durable Johnson.

Perry should worry about HIS own job, a not if he takes Rudi's job.

The guys 's been a bum except for some dump-off passes from Carson last year on 3rd and long.

 

[OneEastRiver]

I stay away from Portis because I just think there is major downside risk for a 1st round selection. If the skins are not in a close game -- expect Portis to be on the sidelines. Redzone carries -- I also expect Portis to be on the sidelines for much of the time. He could turn out to have a great year, but the unknowns regarding the shoulder (and the possibility of missed games), make me stay away in round 1.

Much more difficult is picking between Ronnie Brown, Lamont, and Edge. All 3 are the featured backs on their teams, but all are in questionable situations. If the AZ WRs do well (which is unanimous), and the Cards can move the ball down the field, then Edge should definitely get solid TD production. He is a proven talent in the league, and should do no worse than top 10 RB.

Ronnie Brown and Lamont are much harder reads this year. Both can be top 5, but both can also disappoint. I'm not sold on Lamont at the goal line or the team's ability to move the ball consistently. And as for Ronnie, I just don't love his style of running the ball. It doesn't look like he "creates" nice runs. If nothing is there, he gains minimal yards....and if there is a hole he'll pick up 4 or 5. He lacks the big play potential that can help pad fantasy stats over the course of the year.

I love McGahee...but only in the 2nd round where the value is.

Here's what I'm thinking at this ten seconds:

S. Jackson

Edge

Lamont

Rudi

R. Brown

McGahee

Caddilac

Portis

 

[ffmaniac]

This is why it is best to trade down and wait for the best available of these backs...I wouls take any of these except for Portis at this point

 

[Riffraff]

In regards to Rudi...who cares about Chris Perry. The guy has barely strung 100 NFL carries and already has a ton more injuries then the durable Johnson.Perry should worry about HIS own job, a not if he takes Rudi's job.The guys 's been a bum except for some dump-off passes from Carson last year on 3rd and long.

Pretty much agree.People act as if a 3rd down back is hard to find. Perry is not irreplaceable.Late first round pick that just didn't meet expectations of the draft slot.Kind of fell into a Trung Canidate situation (behind Marshall Faulk first, later behind Clinton Portis). Hard to write Perry off just yet, but getting there pretty quick. You only have so many chances to grab the spotlight in the NFL.

 

[Gopher State]

In regards to Rudi...who cares about Chris Perry. The guy has barely strung 100 NFL carries and already has a ton more injuries then the durable Johnson.Perry should worry about HIS own job, a not if he takes Rudi's job.The guys 's been a bum except for some dump-off passes from Carson last year on 3rd and long.

very

 

[The Jerk]

I’ve got my thoughts and expectations nailed down, with the exception of a group of the running backs I rfer to as the upper-middle class. The group includes LaMont Jordan, Clinton Portis, Caddillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Rudy Johnson, Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee, and Steven Jackson.

I think that James, Portis, and McGahee are the most talented, but they each have questions about their current teams or their health. Jackson and Brown have looked good in stretches, but neither has been a stud for an entire season before. Cadillac has vultures in Alstott and Pittman. Jordan plays for the Raiders, and they are perennially a mess. As for Rudy Johnson, he seems inconsistent from game to game and personally I never felt he was as talented as other upper tier NFL backs.

Right now I am personally ranking these guys in the order listed below, but I find myself changing my mind every other hour. I think most of these guys have a shot at a top 6 finish, and all of them could end up in the top 10. I’d love to have a good discussion to get others feedback on some of these players. I think it might be possible to get two of these guys for those of us picking toward the end of round one and then again at the beginning of round 2 in 10 team and maybe 12 team leagues. IMO, if you can really hit on two of these guys I think you can equal those top three pickers who are getting the real RB studs this year.

Stephen Jackson –

PROS: Finally out of the Martz system; Has no quality back up to steal carries

CONS: May fight foot injury all season; Don’t know effectiveness of new coach/system; Suspect defense could lead to high scores and force the team to abandon the run

Rudi Johnson –

PROS: Great O-Line; Great supporting Cast; Chris Perry is injured and will not vulture the 3rd down carries (at least not at first); Solid defense should assure some pounding the rock late in games

CONS: Does not have natural talent of some of the players in this group; Has an excellent back-up in Perry who could eventually steal many carries and even take the starting job if Rudy is injured or ineffective for an extended period; If Palmer is not 100% or if he is injured again Rudy could become the focus of the offense (which IMO is very bad for Rudy).

Clinton Portis –

PROS: Proven track record; Incredible talent; Great system for RBs; Good defense assures team will grind it out with the run late in games

CONS: Shoulder injury could hamper him all season long; Duckett (aka TD vulture)

Ronnie Brown –

PROS: Will get carries; No quality back-up to steal carries

CONS: Has never been “The Man” by himself before; Cpep, Chambers and McMichael could steal red zone touches; Suspect O-Line

Edgerrin –

PROS: Incredible talent; Will get all the carries on the team; Passing game could be excellent (but of course, Edge is used to that)

CONS: He is too close to 30; He plays for the Cardinals

Cadillac –

PROS: Strong results last season while healthy; Coach is enamored with him; Will get 18-25 carries per game; Good defense assures team will grind it out with the run late in games

CONS: Possible injury issues; Will get pulled inside the 5 for Alstott and possibly on passing downs for Pittman

Willis McGahee –

PROS: Will get a ton of carries; Is expected to play a greater role in passing game; Incredible talent

CONS: He is the only player on the team to fear other than Evans; Passing game may struggle; If defense is not improved the team could be forced to abandon the run

Lamont Jordan –

PROS: Strong results last season; He will get virtually all of the carries and probably a good number of looks in the passing game

CONS: Suspect QB and O-Line; Porter is holding out and Moss is an injury waiting to happen; The effectiveness of Shell’s offense is highly-questionable; Poor defense may force the offense into lots of downfield pass attempts (rather than swing passes out of the backfield)

I think that's an excellent summary, with one exception. The comment about Rudi not being an exceptional talent is debatable. He decidedly does not have the flash and highlight-reel moves of others, but durability and power are also desirable qualities in a runner. More importantly as it concerns FF, opportunity also matters, not just talent. However, you still have Rudi ranked highly. I can't complain about him being listed second to S.Jackson. Good overall post.

 

[cosjobs]

In PPR leagues, I'd narrow this list down to R Brown, S Jackson, and E James..

I agree and I'd also add kevin jones to the list. Unless Martz has a sudden and drastic change of offensive philosphy KJ should be a top ten rb this year in ppr leegs.

 

[Stashy]

I have FWP ranked above alot of these guys. But that is just my draft board

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

In regards to Rudi...who cares about Chris Perry. The guy has barely strung 100 NFL carries and already has a ton more injuries then the durable Johnson.Perry should worry about HIS own job, a not if he takes Rudi's job.The guys 's been a bum except for some dump-off passes from Carson last year on 3rd and long.

very

Disagree. That post sounds awfully biased. I actually think Perry is more talented than Johnson, but for various reasons, hasn't taken over. Yes, there is merit in the injury thing, but he can't help that now can he? I've even read where the docs/trainers are partly to blame about his current injury status. That is, bad advice was given with respect to when they should have taken place. Right or wrong, he is upset about it. That sounds like someone that wants to play, to me.Anyway, not sure what makes him a bum? Care to elaborate?

 

[Firekaps]

At the turn in my 10 team redraft last night I had my pick of these guys with the exception of SJax. I went with Rudi and Portis. My feelings are that if you are a strong and smart drafter and work the WW well at the beginning of the season, it's okay to take a "risk" in any round of the draft. I took Rudi for his aforementioned durability and consistency, despite the lack of catches. I took Portis because I just couldn't let him pass me by.

The only other back I was really considering at that points was Ronnie Brown/Caddy, but I just went with the proven guys with the track records. This might have to do with the fact that Kevin Jones burned me last year and I feel like a RB with a body of work means something over a younger back still with questions regaring whether he can carry the load.

FYI, after my picks at 10/11, the draft went L.Jordan, McGahee, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Caddy all in a row.

 

[massraider]

Assuming PPR:

S. Jackson--Its tough for me to get jazzed up about this guy, because I thought last year he was going waaay too early, based on one nationally televised preseason game. Tough to shake the labels you give players sometimes. But I love the situation this year. Less Martz=more SJax. Could really be in for a monster season. Foot injury is troubling.

Edgerrin--Not too many people seem to be as concerned as I am that Edge isn't surrounded by Indy's offense this year. I think Edge in Indy was money in the bank, you knew he was going to get his, and get plenty of TD opportunites. He might just slide into a great situation in Arizona, but that line needs to prove it can give him the help that he needs. And he does need help from his O-line. This isn't the same Edge as before he blew his knee out. We also know, as much as we can know, that Warner will miss some games. I wonder about the effectiveness of that O with another QB in there. I still rank him this high because I think he'll get a ton of touches, and at worst have some compiler-type games.

R. Brown--I think he'll have some quiet games, because I think he won't get too many yards with his own creativity; but he has solid power, and I like the Fins to improve their offense this year. Chambers, Booker, McMichael, Culpepper: that's an interesting group of talent around him. I've seen enough of Pepp this summer to believe he represents improved play at the position at QB for the Fins. He looks great, actually. I think he lost about 20 pounds.

Caddy--I like Edge and Brown over him because I think Caddy isn't involved in the passing game enough. And I also have it in the back of my mind that he got a bit worn down this past year. With Alstott and Pittman, the vulture thing is a possibility. I think Caddy might be a real safe pick, but like, Rudi, his ceiling in PPR is a bit lower than some of the other boys.

Lamont--Lotta cons with this guy, not too many pros. Funny thing is, they're all the same cons as last year. Bad QB, questionable line, blah blah blah. I'm a Raiders homer, so I will point that out and move on.

Portis--I didn't like him at 4-5 before the injury, or the arrival of Duckett. I am a believer in Gibbs, but I question this offense's ability to really move the ball consistently. This wagon is hitched to Brunell, and I am not a believer. He's at an age where durability is a real question, and now Portis has a shoulder thing, and Duckett snaking carries. I will say this, I am less concerned about the injury as I am with Duckett and Brunell. I think that shoulder thing wasn't that severe, and I also think Portis' toughness is underappreciated. Probably represents value now, whereas before I thought he was rated too high.

Rudi--Won't be the guy that wins you the title, but won't lose it. Gets a bump up as well, as it seems like Perry could be PUP'ed to start the season, and Perry has gone public with his dissatisfaction with the Bengals medical crew. If you aren't in a PPR........man, this guy is a top 7 pick. He's a rock.

McGahee--I don't like the line, the QB, the attitude, the injury history, and the offense. Other than that, he's swell. Full disclosure, haven't looked into him too much because in my leagues I was in no position to acquire him.

 

[massraider]

At the turn in my 10 team redraft last night I had my pick of these guys with the exception of SJax. I went with Rudi and Portis. My feelings are that if you are a strong and smart drafter and work the WW well at the beginning of the season, it's okay to take a "risk" in any round of the draft. I took Rudi for his aforementioned durability and consistency, despite the lack of catches. I took Portis because I just couldn't let him pass me by.The only other back I was really considering at that points was Ronnie Brown/Caddy, but I just went with the proven guys with the track records. This might have to do with the fact that Kevin Jones burned me last year and I feel like a RB with a body of work means something over a younger back still with questions regaring whether he can carry the load.FYI, after my picks at 10/11, the draft went L.Jordan, McGahee, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Caddy all in a row.

Uh, what did the guys at 4-9 take. Tiki, SJax, and who else?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

At the turn in my 10 team redraft last night I had my pick of these guys with the exception of SJax. I went with Rudi and Portis. My feelings are that if you are a strong and smart drafter and work the WW well at the beginning of the season, it's okay to take a "risk" in any round of the draft. I took Rudi for his aforementioned durability and consistency, despite the lack of catches. I took Portis because I just couldn't let him pass me by.The only other back I was really considering at that points was Ronnie Brown/Caddy, but I just went with the proven guys with the track records. This might have to do with the fact that Kevin Jones burned me last year and I feel like a RB with a body of work means something over a younger back still with questions regaring whether he can carry the load.FYI, after my picks at 10/11, the draft went L.Jordan, McGahee, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Caddy all in a row.

Uh, what did the guys at 4-9 take. Tiki, SJax, and who else?

Sounds like an ESPN mock draft to me. Vince Young, Drew Bledsoe, and TO went 6,7,8.

 

[Da Guru]

The problem is that no one wants to trade up to #4 or 5.

What is wrong with SJax foot?

 

[H.K.]

Assuming PPR:

McGahee--I don't like the line, the QB, the attitude, the injury history, and the offense. Other than that, he's swell. Full disclosure, haven't looked into him too much because in my leagues I was in no position to acquire him.

McGahee has reduced his weight to mirror that of his first season where he had much more success than last year. Also, from everything I have read and seen, he will be an every down RB. This should bump him up in PPR.