Lets talk Wes Welker (1 Viewer)

[basenjiwarrior]

Obviously, he,s downgraded with Brady out.

Hes still getting targets though.

1.What do you see as his end of the year numbers?

2. WR2 OR WR3 in fantasy?

3. His Final WR Ranking?

4. Is he a buy low candidate right now?

 

[thriftyrocker]

Still a WR2 in PPR leagues. Almost droppable in non-PPR leagues. Maybe 85 catches, 900 yards, 3 TDs. More like his last year in Miami.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

I wouldn;t sell low just yet. Cassel seems to have trouble with the long ball and will open up Welkers game just as Brady did! Moss is the one to be selling low! As many already are trying in my leagues at least! I do beleive Welkers value is greater then Moss but I beleived that even before Brady got hurt!

 

[Boston]

The Pats look like it's going to be a "Back to the Future" replay as they will probably mimic their 2001 season (i.e. short, safe passes) although having Moss there is definetly a different wrinkle as there was no one remotely close to him on that team. This style fits what Welker does and I see him being in the ballpark of 7/65 on a weekly basis...which averages out to app. 112/1040 which is very similar to last year. The x-factor is TDs and they will probably be a little more difficult to come by...I'd say five TDs is probably a safe number to work with. That means he's still a force in PPR leagues but in non-PPR leagues his value drops to being solid but very unspectacular.

 

[Tanner9919]

The Pats look like it's going to be a "Back to the Future" replay as they will probably mimic their 2001 season (i.e. short, safe passes) although having Moss there is definetly a different wrinkle as there was no one remotely close to him on that team. This style fits what Welker does and I see him being in the ballpark of 7/65 on a weekly basis...which averages out to app. 112/1040 which is very similar to last year. The x-factor is TDs and they will probably be a little more difficult to come by...I'd say five TDs is probably a safe number to work with. That means he's still a force in PPR leagues but in non-PPR leagues his value drops to being solid but very unspectacular.

They will get back to the future for sure, and that means more passes to the RB's out of the backfield.Welker is a decent #3 WR, but nothing more..If what someone else said is true, that Cassel doesn't throw the deep ball well enough, then you're likely to see teams leave Moss in single coverage with the focuse being on stopping Welker now, rather than Moss..Brady was a master of spreading the ball around, but two wins against the pathetic Chiefs and the 'improving-but-not-quite-there' Jets, I'm still not convinced that Cassel is any good. He looked terrible in preseason - when defenses play watered down schemes..time will tell but he's due to start screwing things up,as all first time starters do.Even with Brady under center, I had Welker at no more than 80 catches for 2008..I'm sticking by that number, somewhere around 5/60 per game..80 catches, 960 yards, 3-4 tds.nothing close to what he should be doing relative to his ADP...

 

[Bad_Mo]

If any WR on NE should benefit from Brady being out, its Welker. I see alot of WR screens and slant patterns in Welker's future. I'd definitely sit tight with any NE WR for now.

 

[biggyd]

There is an excellent article on boston.com, written by Mike Reiss. Mike Reiss is the second best source (David Yudkin #1) of Patriots information. Check out his Reiss's Pieces blog for great tidbits of information.

'Passing Game was Short and Sweet'

"Welker, with 68 yards-after-catch Sunday, has become one of the NFL's most lethal YACers by combining quickness, strength, and vision in a player just 5 feet 9 inches and 185 pounds."

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patr...hort_and_sweet/

The official stat sheet indicates that the Patriots had 165 passing yards and another 104 rushing in Sunday's 19-10 win over the Jets, but if former offensive coordinator Charlie Weis were still working around these parts, his scorecard would read differently. The rushing total would be higher.

It's not that Weis would have called more running plays than his successor, Josh McDaniels. Instead, it's about what Weis often defined as a running play.

Weis loved the wide receiver screen, that innocent pass to the outer edges of the field that must be delivered quickly after the snap. While the play is technically considered a pass, Weis often referred to it as a glorified run because it served the same purpose as a handoff - except that the running comes against the perimeter of the defense, not at the line of scrimmage, and with a receiver doing the running, not a back.

 

[David Yudkin]

There is an excellent article on boston.com, written by Mike Reiss. Mike Reiss is the second best source (David Yudkin #1) of Patriots information.

I'm flattered, but Reiss is far more an authority than I am.

 

[Road Warriors]

The Pats look like it's going to be a "Back to the Future" replay as they will probably mimic their 2001 season (i.e. short, safe passes) although having Moss there is definetly a different wrinkle as there was no one remotely close to him on that team. This style fits what Welker does and I see him being in the ballpark of 7/65 on a weekly basis...which averages out to app. 112/1040 which is very similar to last year. The x-factor is TDs and they will probably be a little more difficult to come by...I'd say five TDs is probably a safe number to work with. That means he's still a force in PPR leagues but in non-PPR leagues his value drops to being solid but very unspectacular.

They will get back to the future for sure, and that means more passes to the RB's out of the backfield.Welker is a decent #3 WR, but nothing more..If what someone else said is true, that Cassel doesn't throw the deep ball well enough, then you're likely to see teams leave Moss in single coverage with the focuse being on stopping Welker now, rather than Moss..

Brady was a master of spreading the ball around, but two wins against the pathetic Chiefs and the 'improving-but-not-quite-there' Jets, I'm still not convinced that Cassel is any good. He looked terrible in preseason - when defenses play watered down schemes..

time will tell but he's due to start screwing things up,as all first time starters do.

Even with Brady under center, I had Welker at no more than 80 catches for 2008..I'm sticking by that number, somewhere around 5/60 per game..80 catches, 960 yards, 3-4 tds.



nothing close to what he should be doing relative to his ADP...

Off topic:Its a bit early to determine if Cassel is "no good" or not. And its also early to assess his ability to deliver the deep ball. Preseason is preseason, and I don't see a bunch of the top performers in preseason doing anything in the regular season. I discount preseason results almost completely, except for rookies.

Now, I saw one deep pass this week. It was underthrown by about 3-4 yards, about 50 yards downfield. But it was close enough to a singled up Moss that he could ( or should ) have made the catch. I sincerely hope you're right about how teams will change up how they defend this Patriots offense. If the opposition begins to creep up and try to take away all the short stuff and leave Moss singled up, he'll be making big plays again. Cassel may not him him in stride, but I'll take my chances with Moss vs any DB 1:1 for a jump ball.

IIRC, Moss made a few circus catches last year when Brady didn't deliver the ball right on the money, too. Moss is well known as one of the best all time to adjust to the ball in the air, and that will only help widen the window to which Cassel can throw downfield. Single coverage on Moss will be the best thing that could happen to open up this offense.

/Off topic

I agree with the basics of the projections for Welker come year end. 90/1000/5 is what I'll put out for now. I was a bit higher on recpts and TDs before Brady went down, but he'll still get his in this offense. TDs will determine if he stays in the mid WR2 range. Fewer and he'll fall back to the bottom WR2/ top WR3. I'd say his upside is WR13-15. All PPR, of course.

 

[Road Warriors]

There is an excellent article on boston.com, written by Mike Reiss. Mike Reiss is the second best source (David Yudkin #1) of Patriots information.

I'm flattered, but Reiss is far more an authority than I am.

Thats OK DY, we like hyperbole here!

 

[thejag]

FWIW--WEEI in Boston has a pro scout on every week. This week the hosts asked his opinion on Cassel, and Cassel vs. Brady. The scout said that right now, Cassel has better arm strength and moves better than Brady did when he came in in '01. Cassel can make all the throws, it's just a question of accuracy--front shoulder vs. back shoulder, that type of thing. He was of the opinion that NE will not keep the playbook as closed as they did with Brady in '01, that they will open it up a little more each week, especially in the next two games (week 4 bye) against Miami and SF.

 

[David Yudkin]

FWIW--WEEI in Boston has a pro scout on every week. This week the hosts asked his opinion on Cassel, and Cassel vs. Brady. The scout said that right now, Cassel has better arm strength and moves better than Brady did when he came in in '01. Cassel can make all the throws, it's just a question of accuracy--front shoulder vs. back shoulder, that type of thing. He was of the opinion that NE will not keep the playbook as closed as they did with Brady in '01, that they will open it up a little more each week, especially in the next two games (week 4 bye) against Miami and SF.

I basically have been saying that the pats will let him experiement a little more against poorer teams and weak defenses, but I still don't see him running the show like Brady did last year.

 

[Boston]

The Pats look like it's going to be a "Back to the Future" replay as they will probably mimic their 2001 season (i.e. short, safe passes) although having Moss there is definetly a different wrinkle as there was no one remotely close to him on that team. This style fits what Welker does and I see him being in the ballpark of 7/65 on a weekly basis...which averages out to app. 112/1040 which is very similar to last year. The x-factor is TDs and they will probably be a little more difficult to come by...I'd say five TDs is probably a safe number to work with. That means he's still a force in PPR leagues but in non-PPR leagues his value drops to being solid but very unspectacular.

They will get back to the future for sure, and that means more passes to the RB's out of the backfield.Welker is a decent #3 WR, but nothing more..If what someone else said is true, that Cassel doesn't throw the deep ball well enough, then you're likely to see teams leave Moss in single coverage with the focuse being on stopping Welker now, rather than Moss..Brady was a master of spreading the ball around, but two wins against the pathetic Chiefs and the 'improving-but-not-quite-there' Jets, I'm still not convinced that Cassel is any good. He looked terrible in preseason - when defenses play watered down schemes..time will tell but he's due to start screwing things up,as all first time starters do.Even with Brady under center, I had Welker at no more than 80 catches for 2008..I'm sticking by that number, somewhere around 5/60 per game..80 catches, 960 yards, 3-4 tds.nothing close to what he should be doing relative to his ADP...

*Passes to the RB...I really don't see where history supports this. Antowain was the main RB in 2001 and he was really not involved with the passing game. Outside of Faulk's year in and year out receptions no Patriot RB has done anything of substance in the passing game.*I think the Pats would love defenders to switch their coverage over to Welker...I don't care who the QB is that bodes very well for Moss and would be huge for the TE.*As far Cassel goes all we can judge him on is the KC and NYJ game and right now he's done very well for a backup QB getting his feet wet. If you think he'll fail that's definetly a possibility but right now he seems very comfortable and the Pats coaching staff is not asking him to do too much but my guess is that will change as he gets more experience under his belt.*As for Welker it's very obvious from your with-Brady predictions that we could not be on more of a different page. Right now (i.e. in their current offense) I see him being very similar to Troy Brown in 2001 and he ended up with 101 receptions/1199 yards and five TDs. If defenses switch their focus to Welker instead of Moss I think that's a huge win for the Pats.

 

[greenline]

FWIW, I've seen Cassel make plenty of deep throws. This pre-season was the worst I'd seen him at any point since he was drafted, but I firmly believe he can make all the throws.

 

[David Yudkin]

In 7 quarters, Welker has put up 10 receptions for 103 yards playing with Cassel. That works out to an average of 5.7 receptions and 58.9 yards per game.

Over a full season, that would project to 91 receptions for 942 yards assuming nothing changes at all. As others have mentioned, one would think that at some point Cassel will have to open up the offense at some point and they should start giving him more to do, so I think that projection may be slightly on the low side.

I still think Moss will be the one to suffer more than Welker, as teams would rather give up an 8 yard dump off to Welker than a 68 yard bomb to Moss. They would rather the Pats come up with other ways to beat them, and until Cassel and the running game shows that they can be productive consistently, I think Moss will be blanketed with tough coverage.