LHUCKS
Footballguy
I have much love for Joe, David and the FBG site in general and this series of critiques by no means is intended to be an analysis of negative tone. FBG is easily the best fantasy football product available and if I didn’t respect the opinions of the staff and ownership here I wouldn’t be composing this analysis.
The rankings look stellar this year, so good that I’m going to add a twist to the format giving more props to those rankings that I see as those that differentiate FBG from the “competition.” For each position I’m adding an “FBG Shark Ranking.” A ranking that I see as a shark type raking that I believe differentiates FBG from the other ff services/publications.
As many of you know I’ve had a fair amount of success in FBG related leagues but there are always a few new guys to the board that get in these threads and try to derail them away from the intended discussion by questioning my expertise. This year I’m going to try to nip that in the bud by listing my finishes in FBG related leagues, ALL of which had FBG staff members and other well known sharks as the competition. My hope is that this is not perceived as showboating, but rather as an attempt to silence the haters in advance so that the discussion can be more focused on ff and not the credentials of LHUCKS. I’m not here to win a popularity contest, I’m here so that I can be better than my competition at fantasy football…period. Here are my finishes:
1st Place of 12 - FBG forum Challenge
1st Place of 16 - Anarchy Invitational
1st Place of 16 - SSL3
4th Place of 16 - WSL1
2nd Place/leading scorer of 32 - Staff v. Messageboard
2nd Place of 16 - MBSL4
2nd Place of 12/leading scorer - GSOS
2nd Place of 12 - EBF Invitational
And now for the good stuff, I hope you enjoy.
[SIZE=21pt]FBG Shark Ranking - Excellent Ranking by the FBG Staff [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14pt]1) Matt Hasselbeck Ranked #2 [/SIZE]
ESPN Ranking: #5
CBS Sportsline Ranking: #3
So you may think I’m nitpicking here given the relatively small differences in the site rankings, but it’s the little things that differentiate the champion in your fantasy football league from the second place finisher. Last year I had Culpepper ranked lower than most at #5…that ranking was just low enough to ensure that he would not be on any of my fantasy teams and I in turn didn’t end up with a bust of a pick in the early rounds. The same principle can be applied to this situation.
Let’s take a look at the three players the other websites ranked ahead of Hasselbeck not named Peyton.
McNabb(ranked higher by ESPN)- Has missed on average 3.5 games over the last four years
- Reid has made it very clear he wants a more balanced offense with less passing and more rushing
- Suspect WR Crew
Brady(Ranked higher by both CBS and ESPN)
- Coming off a career year where he had roughly 400 more yards passing than in each of the previous two years, historical precedent seems to favor a more conservative offense
- Suspect WR depth with the loss of Givens
- A healthy Dillon with the addition of Maroney should make for an improved rushing game enabling a more conservative offense
- Defense should be improved, which should enable BB to call more of his type of game, which means less passing based on previous years.
Culpepper(ranked higher by ESPN)
– With injury concerns I’m not going to address this ranking
Now let’s look at Hasselbeck’s last three years:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2003 sea | 16 | 313 513 61.0 3844 7.5 26 15 | 36 125 2 || 2004 sea | 14 | 279 474 58.9 3382 7.1 22 15 | 27 90 1 || 2005 sea | 16 | 294 449 65.5 3455 7.7 24 9 | 36 124 1 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+As you can see his yards per game took a hit compared to previous years as he had significantly fewer pass attempts. There are three reasons for this as I see it. 1) The Seattle Defense was much improved
2) Seattle had one of the softest rushing schedules in the entire NFL last year, not to mention relatively weak opponents which allowed them to get up early and run, run, run in the second half.
3) Darrel Jackson was injured and nearly all of the other WRs battled injury throughout the season.
In general I believe we can expect the Seahawks to revert back to their more pass-oriented offense for several reasons:
- With Jackson healthy and with an added weapon in Burleson, Holmgren will be more inclined to pass the ball.
-With a tougher schedule IMHO, I expect closer games and as a result more passing which is what we’ve seen from Holmgren's Hawks in the past.
- The loss of Hutchinson will not enable the Hawks to be quite as effective on the ground.
In conclusion I see FBG’s #2 ranking of Hasselbeck as a “Shark” type ranking as a lot of people will look at last year’s stats and conclude that he’s not worthy of the ranking. I’ve provided the main reasons why I believe otherwise. Hasselbeck may not finish #2 next year, but his risk is so low that when you couple it with all of the positive factors I’ve hilighted above I believe he has the best chance of finishing #2.
Nice job FBG.
[SIZE=21pt]OVERRATED[/SIZE]
[SIZE=17pt]1) Marc Bulger Ranked #6[/SIZE]
Quite frankly I think Bulger is a huge risk this year for several reasons.
a) The former starter for Linehan was coincidentally one of the first free agent signings brought in by the Rams
b) Bulger can’t stay healthy, not because of Martz’ schemes, but because he’s built like a librarian and lacks elusiveness...he's missed about 4 games on average over the last three years. With an experienced Frerotte backing him up Bulger wont exactly be hurried back into the lineup should another injury occur.
c) New systems almost always take time to digest, don’t expect Bulger to come out with guns blazing.
d) Linehan’s offense was fairly balanced last year as Miami ranked 16th in total passing yards, nowhere close to #6.
There are other QBs with as much or more upside than Bulger with half the risk. I think you’ll be disappointed if you’re expecting top 6 numbers from Bulger.
Staff With Highest Ranking: Levin at #2 and Wimer at #3
Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton, Smith and Rudnicki all at #9
LHUCKS Ranking: #10
[SIZE=17pt]2) Donovan McNabb Ranked #4[/SIZE]
Let’s take a look at McNabb’s yearly totals before TO rode into town:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2000 phi | 16 | 330 569 58.0 3365 5.9 21 13 | 86 629 6 || 2001 phi | 16 | 285 493 57.8 3233 6.6 25 12 | 82 482 2 || 2002 phi | 10 | 211 361 58.4 2289 6.3 17 6 | 63 460 6 || 2003 phi | 16 | 275 478 57.5 3216 6.7 16 11 | 71 355 3 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+Note the following:- McNabb has never thrown for 3400 yards without TO(although on pace in ’02)
- His rushing yards have been in steady decline
- He has missed 3.5 games on average over the past four years
Additionally, Reid has said he’d like to balance the offense more and who can blame him with that very suspect group of WRs and McNabb's recent injury woes.
What exactly is screaming #4 fantasy QB here? His career TD’s/game is a nice stat, but I just don’t see the upside here given the limited weaponry and his inability to stay healthy. Somebody else can take on that risk.
Staff With Highest Ranking: Bloom, Norton, Henry, Lammey all at #2
Staff with Lowest Ranking: Smith #8, Brown #12
LHUCKS Ranking: #8
[SIZE=21pt]UNDERRATED[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14pt]1) Drew Bledsoe Ranked #10[/SIZE]
Drew finished #6 in scoring last year and now he has TO. Let’s take a look at what TO did for McNabb’s numbers in '04 and '05:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2000 phi | 16 | 330 569 58.0 3365 5.9 21 13 | 86 629 6 || 2001 phi | 16 | 285 493 57.8 3233 6.6 25 12 | 82 482 2 || 2002 phi | 10 | 211 361 58.4 2289 6.3 17 6 | 63 460 6 || 2003 phi | 16 | 275 478 57.5 3216 6.7 16 11 | 71 355 3 || 2004 phi | 15 | 300 469 64.0 3875 8.3 31 8 | 41 220 3 || 2005 phi | 9 | 211 357 59.1 2507 7.0 16 9 | 25 55 1 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+The analysis is really that simple for me. There aren’t any other significant changes in Dallas to warrant downgrading Bledsoe. One might argue that you could have the “Seattle effect” as the Dallas D is improving and Cowboys’ passing could be limited in second halves, but that is not nearly enough for me to downgrade my #5 ranked QB. Throw in the fact that Bledsoe never gets injured and you’ve got yourself a very nice low risk/high reward pick. Staff With Highest Ranking: Shick, Smith, Lammey, Wood all at #6
Staff With Lowest Ranking: Baker #17, Bloom #16 and Brown #15
LHUCKS Ranking: #5
[SIZE=17pt]2) Byron Leftwich Ranked #18[/SIZE]
Lefty showed a marked improvement last year before succumbing to a minor injury late in the season…he was on pace for roughly 3100 yards and 22 TDs giving him a ppg that was good enough for 8th in the league in what was only his third season in the NFL. Throw in the facts that you’ve got a very deep, maturing WR crew in addition to some added weapons in Mercedes Lewis and Maurice Drew and I think you’ve got the potential here for a breakout season.
Even if Leftwich doesn’t improve his efficiency he’ll be hovering around the #10 mark IMHO and an expectation of an increase in efficiency shouldn’t be out of the question considering this will only be his fourth year in the league.
I believe Byron is one of the next great gunslingers in the league…don’t be surprised if he puts up 3600 and 30 in just his 4th year in the League.
Staff With Highest Ranking: Bloom at #8
Staff with Lowest Ranking: Smith and Shick at #22
LHUCKS Ranking: #11
[SIZE=17pt]3) Jon Kitna #25[/SIZE]
Let’s take a look at Jon’s last two years as an NFL starter:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2002 cin | 14 | 294 473 62.2 3178 6.7 16 16 | 24 57 4 || 2003 cin | 16 | 324 520 62.3 3591 6.9 26 15 | 38 113 0 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+Not too shabby heh?Last year’s #25 QB had 2000 passing yards and 12 TDs…Kitna will have this by game 12 with any luck. For the last three years under Martz the Rams offense passed for over 4000 yards. One can come up with a lot of excuses as to why Kitna will not be a top 20 QB, but when you’re looking at the possible upside that Detroit’s situation offers, Kitna is worth significantly more to me than the #25 QB off the board.
Staff With Highest Ranking: Mike Brown #8
Staff with Lowest Ranking: Bloom #34, Rudnick/Norton/Hicks #28
LHUCKS Ranking: #18
Those are the QBs...what say you??
The rankings look stellar this year, so good that I’m going to add a twist to the format giving more props to those rankings that I see as those that differentiate FBG from the “competition.” For each position I’m adding an “FBG Shark Ranking.” A ranking that I see as a shark type raking that I believe differentiates FBG from the other ff services/publications.
As many of you know I’ve had a fair amount of success in FBG related leagues but there are always a few new guys to the board that get in these threads and try to derail them away from the intended discussion by questioning my expertise. This year I’m going to try to nip that in the bud by listing my finishes in FBG related leagues, ALL of which had FBG staff members and other well known sharks as the competition. My hope is that this is not perceived as showboating, but rather as an attempt to silence the haters in advance so that the discussion can be more focused on ff and not the credentials of LHUCKS. I’m not here to win a popularity contest, I’m here so that I can be better than my competition at fantasy football…period. Here are my finishes:
1st Place of 12 - FBG forum Challenge
1st Place of 16 - Anarchy Invitational
1st Place of 16 - SSL3
4th Place of 16 - WSL1
2nd Place/leading scorer of 32 - Staff v. Messageboard
2nd Place of 16 - MBSL4
2nd Place of 12/leading scorer - GSOS
2nd Place of 12 - EBF Invitational
And now for the good stuff, I hope you enjoy.
[SIZE=21pt]FBG Shark Ranking - Excellent Ranking by the FBG Staff [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14pt]1) Matt Hasselbeck Ranked #2 [/SIZE]
ESPN Ranking: #5
CBS Sportsline Ranking: #3
So you may think I’m nitpicking here given the relatively small differences in the site rankings, but it’s the little things that differentiate the champion in your fantasy football league from the second place finisher. Last year I had Culpepper ranked lower than most at #5…that ranking was just low enough to ensure that he would not be on any of my fantasy teams and I in turn didn’t end up with a bust of a pick in the early rounds. The same principle can be applied to this situation.
Let’s take a look at the three players the other websites ranked ahead of Hasselbeck not named Peyton.
McNabb(ranked higher by ESPN)- Has missed on average 3.5 games over the last four years
- Reid has made it very clear he wants a more balanced offense with less passing and more rushing
- Suspect WR Crew
Brady(Ranked higher by both CBS and ESPN)
- Coming off a career year where he had roughly 400 more yards passing than in each of the previous two years, historical precedent seems to favor a more conservative offense
- Suspect WR depth with the loss of Givens
- A healthy Dillon with the addition of Maroney should make for an improved rushing game enabling a more conservative offense
- Defense should be improved, which should enable BB to call more of his type of game, which means less passing based on previous years.
Culpepper(ranked higher by ESPN)
– With injury concerns I’m not going to address this ranking
Now let’s look at Hasselbeck’s last three years:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2003 sea | 16 | 313 513 61.0 3844 7.5 26 15 | 36 125 2 || 2004 sea | 14 | 279 474 58.9 3382 7.1 22 15 | 27 90 1 || 2005 sea | 16 | 294 449 65.5 3455 7.7 24 9 | 36 124 1 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+As you can see his yards per game took a hit compared to previous years as he had significantly fewer pass attempts. There are three reasons for this as I see it. 1) The Seattle Defense was much improved
2) Seattle had one of the softest rushing schedules in the entire NFL last year, not to mention relatively weak opponents which allowed them to get up early and run, run, run in the second half.
3) Darrel Jackson was injured and nearly all of the other WRs battled injury throughout the season.
In general I believe we can expect the Seahawks to revert back to their more pass-oriented offense for several reasons:
- With Jackson healthy and with an added weapon in Burleson, Holmgren will be more inclined to pass the ball.
-With a tougher schedule IMHO, I expect closer games and as a result more passing which is what we’ve seen from Holmgren's Hawks in the past.
- The loss of Hutchinson will not enable the Hawks to be quite as effective on the ground.
In conclusion I see FBG’s #2 ranking of Hasselbeck as a “Shark” type ranking as a lot of people will look at last year’s stats and conclude that he’s not worthy of the ranking. I’ve provided the main reasons why I believe otherwise. Hasselbeck may not finish #2 next year, but his risk is so low that when you couple it with all of the positive factors I’ve hilighted above I believe he has the best chance of finishing #2.
Nice job FBG.
[SIZE=21pt]OVERRATED[/SIZE]
[SIZE=17pt]1) Marc Bulger Ranked #6[/SIZE]
Quite frankly I think Bulger is a huge risk this year for several reasons.
a) The former starter for Linehan was coincidentally one of the first free agent signings brought in by the Rams
b) Bulger can’t stay healthy, not because of Martz’ schemes, but because he’s built like a librarian and lacks elusiveness...he's missed about 4 games on average over the last three years. With an experienced Frerotte backing him up Bulger wont exactly be hurried back into the lineup should another injury occur.
c) New systems almost always take time to digest, don’t expect Bulger to come out with guns blazing.
d) Linehan’s offense was fairly balanced last year as Miami ranked 16th in total passing yards, nowhere close to #6.
There are other QBs with as much or more upside than Bulger with half the risk. I think you’ll be disappointed if you’re expecting top 6 numbers from Bulger.
Staff With Highest Ranking: Levin at #2 and Wimer at #3
Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton, Smith and Rudnicki all at #9
LHUCKS Ranking: #10
[SIZE=17pt]2) Donovan McNabb Ranked #4[/SIZE]
Let’s take a look at McNabb’s yearly totals before TO rode into town:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2000 phi | 16 | 330 569 58.0 3365 5.9 21 13 | 86 629 6 || 2001 phi | 16 | 285 493 57.8 3233 6.6 25 12 | 82 482 2 || 2002 phi | 10 | 211 361 58.4 2289 6.3 17 6 | 63 460 6 || 2003 phi | 16 | 275 478 57.5 3216 6.7 16 11 | 71 355 3 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+Note the following:- McNabb has never thrown for 3400 yards without TO(although on pace in ’02)
- His rushing yards have been in steady decline
- He has missed 3.5 games on average over the past four years
Additionally, Reid has said he’d like to balance the offense more and who can blame him with that very suspect group of WRs and McNabb's recent injury woes.
What exactly is screaming #4 fantasy QB here? His career TD’s/game is a nice stat, but I just don’t see the upside here given the limited weaponry and his inability to stay healthy. Somebody else can take on that risk.
Staff With Highest Ranking: Bloom, Norton, Henry, Lammey all at #2
Staff with Lowest Ranking: Smith #8, Brown #12
LHUCKS Ranking: #8
[SIZE=21pt]UNDERRATED[/SIZE]
[SIZE=14pt]1) Drew Bledsoe Ranked #10[/SIZE]
Drew finished #6 in scoring last year and now he has TO. Let’s take a look at what TO did for McNabb’s numbers in '04 and '05:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2000 phi | 16 | 330 569 58.0 3365 5.9 21 13 | 86 629 6 || 2001 phi | 16 | 285 493 57.8 3233 6.6 25 12 | 82 482 2 || 2002 phi | 10 | 211 361 58.4 2289 6.3 17 6 | 63 460 6 || 2003 phi | 16 | 275 478 57.5 3216 6.7 16 11 | 71 355 3 || 2004 phi | 15 | 300 469 64.0 3875 8.3 31 8 | 41 220 3 || 2005 phi | 9 | 211 357 59.1 2507 7.0 16 9 | 25 55 1 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+The analysis is really that simple for me. There aren’t any other significant changes in Dallas to warrant downgrading Bledsoe. One might argue that you could have the “Seattle effect” as the Dallas D is improving and Cowboys’ passing could be limited in second halves, but that is not nearly enough for me to downgrade my #5 ranked QB. Throw in the fact that Bledsoe never gets injured and you’ve got yourself a very nice low risk/high reward pick. Staff With Highest Ranking: Shick, Smith, Lammey, Wood all at #6
Staff With Lowest Ranking: Baker #17, Bloom #16 and Brown #15
LHUCKS Ranking: #5
[SIZE=17pt]2) Byron Leftwich Ranked #18[/SIZE]
Lefty showed a marked improvement last year before succumbing to a minor injury late in the season…he was on pace for roughly 3100 yards and 22 TDs giving him a ppg that was good enough for 8th in the league in what was only his third season in the NFL. Throw in the facts that you’ve got a very deep, maturing WR crew in addition to some added weapons in Mercedes Lewis and Maurice Drew and I think you’ve got the potential here for a breakout season.
Even if Leftwich doesn’t improve his efficiency he’ll be hovering around the #10 mark IMHO and an expectation of an increase in efficiency shouldn’t be out of the question considering this will only be his fourth year in the league.
I believe Byron is one of the next great gunslingers in the league…don’t be surprised if he puts up 3600 and 30 in just his 4th year in the League.
Staff With Highest Ranking: Bloom at #8
Staff with Lowest Ranking: Smith and Shick at #22
LHUCKS Ranking: #11
[SIZE=17pt]3) Jon Kitna #25[/SIZE]
Let’s take a look at Jon’s last two years as an NFL starter:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2002 cin | 14 | 294 473 62.2 3178 6.7 16 16 | 24 57 4 || 2003 cin | 16 | 324 520 62.3 3591 6.9 26 15 | 38 113 0 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+Not too shabby heh?Last year’s #25 QB had 2000 passing yards and 12 TDs…Kitna will have this by game 12 with any luck. For the last three years under Martz the Rams offense passed for over 4000 yards. One can come up with a lot of excuses as to why Kitna will not be a top 20 QB, but when you’re looking at the possible upside that Detroit’s situation offers, Kitna is worth significantly more to me than the #25 QB off the board.
Staff With Highest Ranking: Mike Brown #8
Staff with Lowest Ranking: Bloom #34, Rudnick/Norton/Hicks #28
LHUCKS Ranking: #18
Those are the QBs...what say you??
Last edited by a moderator:
LHUCKs.
Some of these WRs just need some time.
I thought you were low on Eli Manning for 2006?
)
While I respectfully disagree about Bulger being quite that low, I think the reasoning is sound for a slight drop. I still think the composite of 6 is about where I expect him to end the year. Great work as always, and sorry if someone else already pointed that out (perused the replies and didn't see it mentioned).
