LHUCKS' 4th Annual FBG Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Link to Part I: The Quarter Backs

Here’s part II of this year’s critique series. It has taken me a full week to dissect these rankings as these are the tightest set of RB rankings I’ve ever seen from FBG…I mean I think they are really, really good. Here’s what I came up with for the various categories. Enjoy.

OVERRATED

1) Julius Jones #17

Let’s take a look at the prolific career of Mr. Jones…

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 dal |   8 |   197    819    4.2    7 |    17    109   6.4    0 || 2005 dal |  13 |   257    993    3.9    5 |    35    218   6.2    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  21 |   454   1812    4.0   12 |    52    327   6.3    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Far from impressive if you ask me…of obvious concern is the total amount of games missed over the past two seasons. Julius is the type of player that will let you down when you need him most…in the fantasy playoffs. Last year’s #17 runningback had 1300 total yards and 2 TDs…Julius is yet to match those cumulative numbers. Throw in the fact that Barber is in line for an expanded role in addition to the public criticism from Parcells questioning Julius’ toughness and I think you’ve got yourself a lot of risk and unproven reward. He has been a great PPG player in the past, but with Marion Barber coming on can you even expect that to last? I foresee a lot of RBBC in Bid D in 2006.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Mike Anderson at #12 and Bob Henry at #14

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Jeff Pasquino at #29 and Wimer at #24

LHUCKS Ranking: #26

2) Ronnie Brown #9

Question: What do the following players have in common??

Egerrin James

Cadillac Wiliams

Rudi Johnson

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Reuben Droughns

Willie Parker

Domanick Davis

Answer: They all finished ahead of Brown in ff points last year and are ranked below Ronnie Brown this year. Should they be?

Let’s take a look at Ronnie’s gamelog from last year:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  den  |   22    57  |     4  |  0 ||  2  nyj  |   12    35  |     5  |  0 ||  3  car  |   23   132  |    15  |  1 ||  5  buf  |   17    97  |    19  |  0 ||  6  tam  |    9    22  |    44  |  1 ||  7  kan  |    8    95  |    15  |  1 ||  8  nor  |   23   106  |    12  |  0 ||  9  atl  |   12    67  |    11  |  0 || 10  nwe  |   14    64  |    28  |  0 || 11  cle  |   12    56  |     2  |  0 || 12  oak  |   15    58  |    23  |  1 || 13  buf  |    9    22  |    30  |  1 || 14  sdg  |   11    30  |     0  |  0 || 15  nyj  |   12    45  |    11  |  0 || 17  nwe  |    8    21  |    13  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  207   907  |   232  |  5 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+Brown amassed 207 carries and 907 rushing yards giving him a respectable 4.4 YPC. So it’s common sense to extrapolate that to a full workload right? Wrong. Looking more closely at the numbers you’ll notice that Brown only had three games with more than 17 carries…not to mention he wasn’t even the primary back at Auburn where he split carries with Cadillac. Additionally after watching all of Ronnie’s games last year he strikes me as the type of runningback without the wiggle and elusiveness to avoid injury in a 300 carry NFL season. He’s a fast, powerful back that takes hits from time to time. We really don’t know what kind of load Ronnie can handle yet.One might feel comfortable drafting Brown ahead of other proven commodities, but I personally don’t. In addition to the 7 backs FBG has ranked ahead of Brown, I have six additional backs ranked ahead of Brown that I see as safer picks with similar upside. This is where I can disagree from time to time with many “experts.” I’d rather take the safe guy that is projected for 276 fantasy points, than the unproven guy projected at 290 points…especially in the first two rounds.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Wimer at #5, Pasquino and Lammey at #6

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Baker #13, David and Joe #12

LHUCKS Ranking: #14

UNDERRATED

1) Ron Dayne # 39

First, here is Mike Anderson’s game log and season totals from last year after splitting with a healthy Tatum Bell for most of the year:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  mia  |    4     5  |     0  |  0 ||  2  sdg  |   15    49  |    41  |  0 ||  3  kan  |   20    98  |     0  |  1 ||  4  jax  |   23   115  |    27  |  0 ||  5  was  |   11    34  |    16  |  0 ||  6  nwe  |   15    57  |     0  |  1 ||  7  nyg  |   24   120  |     0  |  1 ||  8  phi  |   21   126  |    16  |  1 || 10  oak  |   17    65  |     0  |  1 || 11  nyj  |   26   113  |    16  |  3 || 12  dal  |   11    31  |     6  |  0 || 13  kan  |   13    37  |    66  |  2 || 14  bal  |    8    21  |     0  |  0 || 15  buf  |   21    97  |     4  |  2 || 16  oak  |   10    46  |    20  |  1 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  239  1014  |   212  | 13 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+Not too bad, I notice 1200 total yards and 13 TDs in 15 games. Good enough to finish 10th in FBG scoring.Now let’s look at Dayne’s career:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 nyg |  16 |   228    770    3.4    5 |     3     11   3.7    0 || 2001 nyg |  16 |   180    690    3.8    7 |     8     67   8.4    0 || 2002 nyg |  16 |   125    428    3.4    3 |    11     49   4.5    0 || 2004 nyg |  14 |    52    179    3.4    1 |     1      7   7.0    0 || 2005 den |  10 |    53    270    5.1    1 |     3     17   5.7    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  72 |   638   2337    3.7   17 |    26    151   5.8    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Here’s what I take of note from here. In his first four years with NYG he only missed two games…that my friends is durability. Not too many human beings can do that. The second stat that jumps out to me is the 5.1 YPC…yes it was bolstered by the big run, but why was that big run a fluke? Denver’s offense consistently produces big runs. No Dayne isn’t a speed demon, but neither was Mike Anderson.Lastly, and most importantly Dayne is running with the first team in minicamp and the Denver GM has stated he expects Dayne to fill Anderson’s shoes.

Whether or not you like Dayne’s talent or not the stars have aligned. He has proven to be durable and he is filling Anderson’s role. It’s not rocket science to put one and one together here. It’s not like Anderson was the most gifted RB either. Just plug in a power runner in that offense and you’re going to get a 1000 yards and double digit TDs. Dayne’s ranking is the worst FBG consensus ranking IMHO.

Staff With Lowest Ranking: Dave Baker Not Ranked, Pasquino #50, Rudnicki #49

Staff With Highest Ranking: Tremblay #19, Lammey #21



LHUCKS Ranking: #24

2) Warrick Dunn #22

Warrick Dunn is fast becoming the Eddie Kennison of RBs…constantly undervalued.

Here are Warrick’s past two seasons:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 atl |  16 |   265   1106    4.2    9 |    29    294  10.1    0 || 2005 atl |  16 |   280   1416    5.1    3 |    29    220   7.6    1 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Last year was good enough for #12 in the FBG rankings yet he is ranked #22 this year with several landmines ranked ahead of him. I’m in the school of thought that believes in most cases the most recent season is the best season to start your stat projections from, (i.e. baseline) in situations where not much has changed. In this situation not much has changed. I’ve currently got Warrick’s yearly totals ahead of several riskier picks ahead of him including the Jones trio: Julius Jones, Thomas Jones and Kevin Jones.Staff With Highest Ranking: Levin #12, Tremblay #15

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton #27, Lammey #28

LHUCKS Ranking: #16

3) Marion Barber III #41

Well, as you can see above I’m not too high on Julius Jones and as a result I have Barber ranked well ahead of #41. Here are Barber’s stats from his rookie season:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2005 dal |  13 |   138    538    3.9    5 |    18    115   6.4    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  13 |   138    538    3.9    5 |    18    115   6.4    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Barber finished #35 in his rookie season with over 500 yards rushing while remaining somewhat durable playing in 13 games as a rookie. Expect to see Barber’s role expanded as he improves on his rookie campaign. Parcells has already stated he’ll have an expanded role in ’06. But here’s the beauty of Barber in ’06, once Julius goes down you’re going to get starting RB numbers from him because he has got the skills…whether or not he can do it for an entire season is the only question remaining. I love his risk/reward this year and believe he should be ranked a full seven spots higher than his FBG ranking.

Staff With Highest Ranking: John Norton #37, Will Grant #36

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Not ranked by Mike Anderson and Dave Baker

LHUCKS Ranking: #34

FBG Shark Ranking - Excellent Ranking by the FBG Staff

1) Reggie Bush Ranked #23

ESPN Ranking: #14

CBS Sportsline Ranking: #14

Let’s start by taking a look at the rookie seasons of some of the top runningbacks in the game both present and future, including two of the top rushers in NFL history:

Shaun Alexander: 354 Total Yards, 2 TDs behind Ricky Watters

Larry Johnson: 86 Total Yards, 1 TD

Barry Sanders: 1752 Total Yards, 14 TDs (5.2 YPC)

Clinton Portis: 1872 Total Yards, 17 TDs

Tiki Barber: 810 Total Yards, 4 TDs

Emmit Smith: 1165 Total Yards, 11 TDs

Cadillac Williams: 1259 Total Yards, 6 TDs

Charlie Garner: 473 Total Yards, 3 TDs

Warrick Dunn: 1440 Total Yards, 7 TDs

So as you can see the stats are all over the place for several of the elite runningbacks over the past couple of decades. But this is where the rubber meets the road: Reggie Bush is not an every down back which is what most of the top producers from above were. Yes he is explosive and yes he was the best player in the draft but that doesn’t mean he should be ranked #14 ahead of other backs that have proven they can carry a full load for an entire NFL season...or at the very least have a couple of years of NFL experience to help them weather the storm of a grueling 16 game schedule. Even if Deuce is unable to play Reggie will not get a full load because the Saints know he’s not that kind of back…not yet anyhow.

Throw in the fact that you’ve got Deuce McCallister ahead of him in addition to several other capable targets/weapons and I think it’s clear that a #14 ranking is a real reach. The #14 RB last year had over 1600 total yards and 2 TDs…Reggie will not sniff that yardage and as shown above very few backs have as well. Those that did played the majority of the season as the RB#1, not the RB#2 slash Special Teams Returner slash WR.

A quick quote from the HC Payton, "I do think we have two good players…both will be on the field at times, and it will be the problem we have as coaches to utilize them well. That's a good problem."

Trust me, I think Reggie is the goods and for my money he’s the best college runningback I’ve seen play, but for the previously mentioned reasons there are better options for you this year in the second or third round of your drafts. The FBG ranking of #23 is almost exactly where I would take him…nice ranking by FBG. ======================================================

Those are the RBs, but I always say the money is made at the WR position so I’ll try to churn those out by early next week.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

 

[Evilgrin 72]

LHUCKS, this is consistently good stuff, and more often than not, you seem to echoes the concerns I have on players I see as overrated.

Keep it up, man - this is killer.

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS, this is consistently good stuff, and more often than not, you seem to echoes the concerns I have on players I see as overrated.

  Keep it up, man - this is killer.

Thanks. I put a lot of time and thought into these critiques as well as my own rankings/projections so it's nice to get some positive feedback. Now where are all the haters??

 

[joffer]

LHUCKS, this is consistently good stuff, and more often than not, you seem to echoes the concerns I have on players I see as overrated.

  Keep it up, man - this is killer.

Thanks. I put a lot of time into these so it's nice to get some positive feedback.Now where are all the haters??

I hate the Dayne ranking...how's that? Seriously, you guys may end up being right on Dayne, but quite honestly, i'd rather be wrong not taking him and having him be a great value than taking him and having him perform poorly as I'm expecting.

nice job otherwise

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS, this is consistently good stuff, and more often than not, you seem to echoes the concerns I have on players I see as overrated.

  Keep it up, man - this is killer.

Thanks. I put a lot of time into these so it's nice to get some positive feedback.Now where are all the haters??

I hate the Dayne ranking...how's that? Seriously, you guys may end up being right on Dayne, but quite honestly, i'd rather be wrong not taking him and having him be a great value than taking him and having him perform poorly as I'm expecting.

nice job otherwise

Well his ranking here at FBG is going to go up...you can take that to the bank so you'll see the value dissipate over the next few months. That being said, I draft guys where I can get them, not where I have them ranked.

 

[John Mamula]

Completely agree on your overrated guys, I think Dayne is overrated at #39 though too. I think the Dunn FBG ranking is right on considering his age risk, and I too think that Barber III is underrated.

I don't think Bush will be a top 30 RB unless Deuce gets hurt.

Good job.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think Dayne is overrated at #39 though too.

Good job.

so who do you see getting the Denver rushing yards, or do you expect them to disappear? Not trying to be a smartass, just looking for alternative opinions.

 

[The Ref]

Good stuff as always Lhucks.

I know you said this was tough, were there any other RB that almost made either list?

 

[LHUCKS]

I think the Dunn FBG ranking is right on considering his age risk, and I too think that Barber III is underrated.

I don't see age as a risk until I see a slowdown...Dunn had the best season of his career in '05.

 

[LHUCKS]

Good stuff as always Lhucks.

I know you said this was tough, were there any other RB that almost made either list?

Absolutely...but I don't show too much of my hand. A lot of my competitors lurk here so I don't give too much away. I even am hesitant to put this out, but it's too much fun so I always do. It sucks though, in most of my money leagues everybody knows exactly who I like.

 

[The Ref]

Good stuff as always Lhucks.

I know you said this was tough, were there any other RB that almost made either list?

Absolutely...but I don't show too much of my hand. A lot of my competitors lurk here so I don't give too much away. I even am hesitant to put this out, but it's too much fun so I always do. It sucks though, in most of my money leagues everybody knows exactly who I like.

Fair enough..... and hard to argue with the logic.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

UNDERRATED

1) Ron Dayne # 39

Here’s what I take of note from here. In his first four years with NYG he only missed two games…that my friends is durability. Not too many human beings can do that. The second stat that jumps out to me is the 5.1 YPC…yes it was bolstered by the big run, but why was that big run a fluke? Denver’s offense consistently produces big runs. No Dayne isn’t a speed demon, but neither was Mike Anderson.

I think Dayne is a lot faster than people give him credit for. Not sure what he ran @ the combine, but I'm sure it was under 4.6

 

[Evilgrin 72]

LHUCKS, where are you on McGahee? FBG ranking has him at #13, but the projections released today by Dodds would rank him as RB20.

 

[LHUCKS]

Good stuff as always Lhucks.

I know you said this was tough, were there any other RB that almost made either list?

Follow up - your take on the Patriots/Colts RB situation?Inquiring minds want to know.

Pats - I think the runners are ranked about right. Dillon was noticably slower last year, but I'm not sure if that was injury related or not as he looked so impressive in the prior year. I'm not totally sold on Maroney, but if Dillon was 100 percent last year Maroney definitely has more ability at this point. A true RBBC may very well be in the cards with Pass, Faulk, Dillon, Maroney all seeing time. :X Dillon still has a great shot to see double digit TDs though.Colts - D Rhodes is a bit underrated I think. I was unimpressed with Addai in the few games of his that I saw and I don't see the Colts not giving Rhodes a shot at the fulltime duties in the early season. I see Rhodes as a nice value play from a ppg perspective. RBBC also a strong possibility here as the Colts' leadership has already stated such.

 

[JohnDoe]

RE: Ronnie Brown.

In the first 4 games of the season (no Ricky Williams) Brown accounted for the following percentage of team rushing attempts: 67%, 71%, 77%, and 90%. His YPC in those games was 4.34 (similar to his season average). When Ricky came back the carries were split almost evenly between the 2 players. AFter week 15 Ricky had the majority of carries for the Miami RB (no Brown in week 16). I think that he can handle a full workload this season, but, his upside may be limited due to the fact he has not had to handle the full workload over the course of a college or pro season.

I can see the top 10 for Brown, but I think top 5 may be a reach. As of now, I have him ranked #12.

 

[dickey moe]

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS, where are you on McGahee?  FBG ranking has him at #13, but the projections released today by Dodds would rank him as RB20.

I believe Jauron is an underrated OC and I think any change from last year's coaching is good change. You're going to see less than 8 men in the box this season because Jauron wont be afraid to spread it out which should help some. Also, an expectation of improved QB play is not too much to ask.McGahee is still won of the most talented backs in the game IMHO and he has shown he is a workhorse type runner as he finished #13 last year in FBG scoring despite a horrid offense.

I like him about where FBG has him and believe he is a very solid play.

 

[LHUCKS]

RE: Ronnie Brown.

In the first 4 games of the season (no Ricky Williams) Brown accounted for the following percentage of team rushing attempts: 67%, 71%, 77%, and 90%. His YPC in those games was 4.34 (similar to his season average). When Ricky came back the carries were split almost evenly between the 2 players. AFter week 15 Ricky had the majority of carries for the Miami RB (no Brown in week 16). I think that he can handle a full workload this season, but, his upside may be limited due to the fact he has not had to handle the full workload over the course of a college or pro season.

I can see the top 10 for Brown, but I think top 5 may be a reach. As of now, I have him ranked #12.

I'm also concerned about the overall offensive effectiveness with Harrington the likely QB for the early part of the season... which could mean a focus on stopping the run from Miami's early season competition.

 

[John Mamula]

I think Dayne is overrated at #39 though too. 

Good job.

so who do you see getting the Denver rushing yards, or do you expect them to disappear? Not trying to be a smartass, just looking for alternative opinions.

honestly i don't know right now. i am defaulting the majority to bell as of now, but that may change as the summer rolls on.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think Dayne is overrated at #39 though too. 

Good job.

so who do you see getting the Denver rushing yards, or do you expect them to disappear? Not trying to be a smartass, just looking for alternative opinions.

honestly i don't know right now. i am defaulting the majority to bell as of now, but that may change as the summer rolls on.

Fair enough...at least you're honest.

 

[joffer]

I think Dayne is overrated at #39 though too. 

Good job.

so who do you see getting the Denver rushing yards, or do you expect them to disappear? Not trying to be a smartass, just looking for alternative opinions.

honestly i don't know right now. i am defaulting the majority to bell as of now, but that may change as the summer rolls on.

fair enough...at least your honest.

right now I'm at:Bell - 215

Dayne - 185

Cobbs - 55

 

[LHUCKS]

I think Dayne is overrated at #39 though too. 

Good job.

so who do you see getting the Denver rushing yards, or do you expect them to disappear? Not trying to be a smartass, just looking for alternative opinions.

honestly i don't know right now. i am defaulting the majority to bell as of now, but that may change as the summer rolls on.

fair enough...at least your honest.

right now I'm at:Bell - 215

Dayne - 185

Cobbs - 55

Dayne would be great value even at 185. I don't see Bell getting 215.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Who do you think will finish the season with more FF points?

Ronnie Brown or Caddy Williams? and Why?

It seems that you are hypocritical when discussing Caddy and Brown.

 

[joffer]

Dayne would be great value even at 185.

not sure i agree. he's 34th in my rankings with that right now and i haven't projected everyone yet. Minimal receptions, bad goal line back, I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in right around 40 for me.

 

[LHUCKS]

Who do you think will finish the season with more FF points?

Ronnie Brown or Caddy Williams? and Why?

It seems that you are hypocritical when discussing Caddy and Brown.

Caddy handled 90 more carries than Brown in his rookie season.Caddy is a better runningback than Brown.(qualitative observation)

Caddy will have the better career.

That being said, Caddy's schedule is brutal this year and I'm still finalizing his projections. I do have him curently ranked higher than Brown.

 

[LHUCKS]

Dayne would be great value even at 185.   

not sure i agree. he's 34th in my rankings with that right now and i haven't projected everyone yet. Minimal receptions, bad goal line back, I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in right around 40 for me.

I think you'll see Anderson's goalline attempts go to Dayne, which means double digit TDs.

 

[joffer]

Dayne would be great value even at 185.    

not sure i agree. he's 34th in my rankings with that right now and i haven't projected everyone yet. Minimal receptions, bad goal line back, I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in right around 40 for me.

I think you'll see Anderson's goalline attempts go to Dayne, which means double digit TDs.

i smell a sig bet

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

LHUCKS, this is consistently good stuff, and more often than not, you seem to echoes the concerns I have on players I see as overrated.

  Keep it up, man - this is killer.

Thanks. I put a lot of time and thought into these critiques as well as my own rankings/projections so it's nice to get some positive feedback. Now where are all the haters??

There really isn't alot to hate here. I dont see any controversy in your statements.

 

[fosio]

Good stuff as always. Looking forward to seeing (if you post them) your 2006 rankings.

 

[LHUCKS]

Dayne would be great value even at 185.    

not sure i agree. he's 34th in my rankings with that right now and i haven't projected everyone yet. Minimal receptions, bad goal line back, I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in right around 40 for me.

I think you'll see Anderson's goalline attempts go to Dayne, which means double digit TDs.

i smell a sig bet

should've said "could mean"...I'll take the over on 7 though if you want some of that action?

 

[LHUCKS]

Good stuff as always.  Looking forward to seeing (if you post them) your 2006 rankings.

Thanks. I post my rankings after my final draft every year.

 

[EBF]

Agree on Brown. I'd downgrade all Dolphins this year. Joey Harrington has stunk it up in the NFL and Culpepper has been mediocre without Moss. Chambers was great last year, but he caught a very low percentage of his targets. Brown had a few nice games. Does that make him worthy of a top ten pick? Not in my book. I'd gladly take Steven Jackson over him.

The bottom line for me is to avoid all Dolphins at their ADP (except maybe McMichael). I'm seeing shades of the 2005 Detroit Lions here.

 

[radballs]

Really good stuff here LHUCKS. I agree with most of your takes. I agree with joffer though regarding Dayne. The guy has never done anything and I don't expect that to change. Bell will get the majority of the carries on that team. I'm also higher on Julius Jones than you are. Other than that, I really like what you did here.

 

[LHUCKS]

Really good stuff here LHUCKS. I agree with most of your takes. I agree with joffer though regarding Dayne. The guy has never done anything and I don't expect that to change. Bell will get the majority of the carries on that team. I'm also higher on Julius Jones than you are. Other than that, I really like what you did here. 

OOC, where do you have Dayne and Jones ranked?

 

[radballs]

Right around 35th and 15th respectively.

 

[Blackjacks]

RE: Ronnie Brown.

In the first 4 games of the season (no Ricky Williams) Brown accounted for the following percentage of team rushing attempts: 67%, 71%, 77%, and 90%. His YPC in those games was 4.34 (similar to his season average). When Ricky came back the carries were split almost evenly between the 2 players. AFter week 15 Ricky had the majority of carries for the Miami RB (no Brown in week 16). I think that he can handle a full workload this season, but, his upside may be limited due to the fact he has not had to handle the full workload over the course of a college or pro season.

I can see the top 10 for Brown, but I think top 5 may be a reach. As of now, I have him ranked #12.

I'm also concerned about the overall offensive effectiveness with Harrington the likely QB for the early part of the season... which could mean a focus on stopping the run from Miami's early season competition.

It's funny that you are so concerned about Harrington this year effecting his RB while he's going to a better team with a better line and more expereinced wr's and a better coach than he had in Detroit and last year you ranked K. Jones #7 with that same Harrington guy being his qb. I like Brown, and we've discussed the whole Caddy-Brown debate enough so I won't get it started again. I do like your posts and can agree with all of them except EVERYTHING you say about "Big" Ronnie Brown and Carnell "wussy" Williams.

 

[BigJim®]

Like others, I'm questioning Ron Dayne. Then again, I'd have never thought Mike Anderson would be reinserted to carry the RB load after that job moved away from him. Who the heck knows what Shanny is thinking. "Who is going to get the carries if not Dayne?" is a sensible retort, no one can assume that Bell will stay healthy enough to garner 250 carries, and Cobbs should rightfully be considered an afterthought given what happened with him in New England. I personally think they need another RB; going into a season with Dayne, Bell and Cobbs seems a tad... arrogant is the word that comes to mind. Everyone in the world seemed to think they needed to take a RB somewhere in the draft.

J.Jones/Barber: Given the headache this situation is causing me in my dynasty league, I can't imagine involving myself with the Dallas RB situation in a redraft league unless I commit to taking both. I do see MB3 closing the statistical gap in 2006, as I'm confident JJ will get injured somehow, so I'm in agreement with your takes. Taking both at their current value may not be a bad idea, as I do feel you'll always know who the primary ball carrier is going into gameday (i.e. you'll know if JJ is healthy or deactivated).

The one disagreement I have is in regards to R.Brown. Not so much the placement (I plan to place him roughly 10-12), but how you arrived there. I don't find your analysis of the RBs who finished ahead of him statistically in 2005 particularly useful in projecting his 2006 value. Certainly no more useful than looking at RBs who finished statistically superior to Larry Johnson in 2004 (when he split with Priest) when establishing LJ's stand-alone potential, or the RBs who finished superior to Stephen Jackson in 2003 (when he split with Faulk) when establishing SJ's stand-alone potential [had we known in advance either were having their path cleared for featured roles]. They too were once unproven as NFL load-carrying RBs simply because they shared carries with above average/great RBs. IMHO, the Williams suspension creates a brand new situation and Brown has very little competition for carries. I guess I'd go Dayne-argument and ask who will get the Miami rushing numbers if not Brown. They'll need to rely on the run given their QB situation.

 

[gocats]

FBG Shark Ranking - Excellent Ranking by the FBG Staff

1) Reggie Bush Ranked #23

ESPN Ranking: #14

CBS Sportsline Ranking: #14

Let’s start by taking a look at the rookie seasons of some of the top runningbacks in the game both present and future, including two of the top rushers in NFL history:

Shaun Alexander: 354 Total Yards, 2 TDs behind Ricky Watters

Larry Johnson: 86 Total Yards, 1 TD

Barry Sanders: 1752 Total Yards, 14 TDs (5.2 YPC)

Clinton Portis: 1872 Total Yards, 17 TDs

Tiki Barber: 810 Total Yards, 4 TDs

Emmit Smith: 1165 Total Yards, 11 TDs

Cadillac Williams: 1259 Total Yards, 6 TDs

Charlie Garner: 473 Total Yards, 3 TDs

Warrick Dunn: 1440 Total Yards, 7 TDs

So as you can see the stats are all over the place for several of the elite runningbacks over the past couple of decades. But this is where the rubber meets the road: Reggie Bush is not an every down back which is what most of the top producers from above were. Yes he is explosive and yes he was the best player in the draft but that doesn’t mean he should be ranked #14 ahead of other backs that have proven they can carry a full load for an entire NFL season...or at the very least have a couple of years of NFL experience to help them weather the storm of a grueling 16 game schedule. Even if Deuce is unable to play Reggie will not get a full load because the Saints know he’s not that kind of back…not yet anyhow.

Throw in the fact that you’ve got Deuce McCallister ahead of him in addition to several other capable targets/weapons and I think it’s clear that a #14 ranking is a real reach. The #14 RB last year had over 1600 total yards and 2 TDs…Reggie will not sniff that yardage and as shown above very few backs have as well. Those that did played the majority of the season as the RB#1, not the RB#2 slash Special Teams Returner slash WR.

A quick quote from the HC Payton, "I do think we have two good players…both will be on the field at times, and it will be the problem we have as coaches to utilize them well. That's a good problem."

Trust me, I think Reggie is the goods and for my money he’s the best college runningback I’ve seen play, but for the previously mentioned reasons there are better options for you this year in the second or third round of your drafts. The FBG ranking of #23 is almost exactly where I would take him…nice ranking by FBG. ======================================================

Those are the RBs, but I always say the money is made at the WR position so I’ll try to churn those out by early next week.

Agree with everything, very well thought out, appreciate how much work you put into this However explain to me how Bush is rated lower than:

Kevin Jones

JJ

Cadillac Williams

Thomas Jones

Chester Taylor

I just dont see how Bush has any more risk than these players, KJ stunk it up last year, JJ is obviously a risk for injury, Caddy will most likely break down before your fantasy playoffs, TJ is also an injury risk with Cedric Benson looming, and Chester Taylor who knows what the situation will be.

Bush on the other hand is a far superior prospect to Caddilac Williams, has no injury history, Deuce McCallister is still saddled with the knee injury it took edge 2 years to be the same back, and its not like he let it up last year, how can you tell me Bush belongs at 23?

 

[Blackjacks]

FBG Shark Ranking - Excellent Ranking by the FBG Staff

1) Reggie Bush Ranked #23

ESPN Ranking: #14

CBS Sportsline Ranking: #14

Let’s start by taking a look at the rookie seasons of some of the top runningbacks in the game both present and future, including two of the top rushers in NFL history:

Shaun Alexander: 354 Total Yards, 2 TDs behind Ricky Watters

Larry Johnson: 86 Total Yards, 1 TD

Barry Sanders: 1752 Total Yards, 14 TDs (5.2 YPC)

Clinton Portis: 1872 Total Yards, 17 TDs

Tiki Barber: 810 Total Yards, 4 TDs

Emmit Smith: 1165 Total Yards, 11 TDs

Cadillac Williams: 1259 Total Yards, 6 TDs

Charlie Garner: 473 Total Yards, 3 TDs

Warrick Dunn: 1440 Total Yards, 7 TDs

So as you can see the stats are all over the place for several of the elite runningbacks over the past couple of decades. But this is where the rubber meets the road: Reggie Bush is not an every down back which is what most of the top producers from above were. Yes he is explosive and yes he was the best player in the draft but that doesn’t mean he should be ranked #14 ahead of other backs that have proven they can carry a full load for an entire NFL season...or at the very least have a couple of years of NFL experience to help them weather the storm of a grueling 16 game schedule. Even if Deuce is unable to play Reggie will not get a full load because the Saints know he’s not that kind of back…not yet anyhow.

Throw in the fact that you’ve got Deuce McCallister ahead of him in addition to several other capable targets/weapons and I think it’s clear that a #14 ranking is a real reach. The #14 RB last year had over 1600 total yards and 2 TDs…Reggie will not sniff that yardage and as shown above very few backs have as well. Those that did played the majority of the season as the RB#1, not the RB#2 slash Special Teams Returner slash WR.

A quick quote from the HC Payton, "I do think we have two good players…both will be on the field at times, and it will be the problem we have as coaches to utilize them well. That's a good problem."

Trust me, I think Reggie is the goods and for my money he’s the best college runningback I’ve seen play, but for the previously mentioned reasons there are better options for you this year in the second or third round of your drafts. The FBG ranking of #23 is almost exactly where I would take him…nice ranking by FBG. ======================================================

Those are the RBs, but I always say the money is made at the WR position so I’ll try to churn those out by early next week.

Agree with everything, very well thought out, appreciate how much work you put into this However explain to me how Bush is rated lower than:

Kevin Jones

JJ

Cadillac Williams

Thomas Jones

Chester Taylor

I just dont see how Bush has any more risk than these players, KJ stunk it up last year, JJ is obviously a risk for injury, Caddy will most likely break down before your fantasy playoffs, TJ is also an injury risk with Cedric Benson looming, and Chester Taylor who knows what the situation will be.

Bush on the other hand is a far superior prospect to Caddilac Williams, has no injury history, Deuce McCallister is still saddled with the knee injury it took edge 2 years to be the same back, and its not like he let it up last year, how can you tell me Bush belongs at 23?

This man has love for Caddy....He'll explain and then some.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

OVERRATED

1) Julius Jones #17

Let’s take a look at the prolific career of Mr. Jones…

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 dal |   8 |   197    819    4.2    7 |    17    109   6.4    0 || 2005 dal |  13 |   257    993    3.9    5 |    35    218   6.2    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  21 |   454   1812    4.0   12 |    52    327   6.3    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Far from impressive if you ask me…of obvious concern is the total amount of games missed over the past two seasons. Julius is the type of player that will let you down when you need him most…in the fantasy playoffs. Last year’s #17 runningback had 1300 total yards and 2 TDs…Julius is yet to match those cumulative numbers. Throw in the fact that Barber is in line for an expanded role in addition to the public criticism from Parcells questioning Julius’ toughness and I think you’ve got yourself a lot of risk and unproven reward. He has been a great PPG player in the past, but with Marion Barber coming on can you even expect that to last? I foresee a lot of RBBC in Bid D in 2006.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Mike Anderson at #12 and Bob Henry at #14

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Jeff Pasquino at #29 and Wimer at #24

LHUCKS Ranking: #26

[

Absolutely agree. I never got the man-love dished out to Jones by many on this board.

 

[BassNBrew]

FBG Shark Ranking - Excellent Ranking by the FBG Staff

1)  Reggie Bush Ranked #23

ESPN Ranking:  #14

CBS Sportsline Ranking: #14

Let’s start by taking a look at the rookie seasons of some of the top runningbacks in the game both present and future, including two of the top rushers in NFL history:

Shaun Alexander:  354 Total Yards, 2 TDs behind Ricky Watters

Larry Johnson:  86 Total Yards, 1 TD

Barry Sanders:  1752 Total Yards, 14 TDs (5.2 YPC)

Clinton Portis:  1872  Total Yards, 17 TDs

Tiki Barber:  810 Total Yards, 4 TDs

Emmit Smith:  1165 Total Yards, 11 TDs

Cadillac Williams:  1259 Total Yards, 6 TDs

Charlie Garner:  473 Total Yards, 3 TDs

Warrick Dunn:  1440 Total Yards, 7 TDs

So as you can see the stats are all over the place for several of the elite runningbacks over the past couple of decades.  But this is where the rubber meets the road:  Reggie Bush is not an every down back which is what most of the top producers from above were.  Yes he is explosive and yes he was the best player in the draft but that doesn’t mean he should be ranked #14 ahead of other backs that have proven they can carry a full load for an entire NFL season...or at the very least have a couple of years of NFL experience to help them weather the storm of a grueling 16 game schedule. Even if Deuce  is unable to play Reggie will not get a full load because the Saints know he’s not that kind of back…not yet anyhow. 

Throw in the fact that you’ve got Deuce McCallister ahead of him in addition to several other capable targets/weapons and I think it’s clear that a #14 ranking is a real reach.  The #14 RB last year had over 1600 total yards and 2 TDs…Reggie will not sniff that yardage and as shown above very few backs have as well.  Those that did played the majority of the season as the RB#1, not the RB#2 slash Special Teams Returner slash WR. 

A quick quote from the HC Payton, "I do think we have two good players…both will be on the field at times, and it will be the problem we have as coaches to utilize them well. That's a good problem."

Trust me, I think Reggie is the goods and for my money he’s the best college runningback I’ve seen play, but for the previously mentioned reasons there are better options for you this year in the second or third round of your drafts. The FBG ranking of #23 is almost exactly where I would take him…nice ranking by FBG. ======================================================

Those are the RBs, but I always say the money is made at the WR position so I’ll try to churn those out by early next week.

Agree with everything, very well thought out, appreciate how much work you put into this However explain to me how Bush is rated lower than:

Kevin Jones

JJ

Cadillac Williams

Thomas Jones

Chester Taylor

I just dont see how Bush has any more risk than these players, KJ stunk it up last year, JJ is obviously a risk for injury, Caddy will most likely break down before your fantasy playoffs, TJ is also an injury risk with Cedric Benson looming, and Chester Taylor who knows what the situation will be.

Bush on the other hand is a far superior prospect to Caddilac Williams, has no injury history, Deuce McCallister is still saddled with the knee injury it took edge 2 years to be the same back, and its not like he let it up last year, how can you tell me Bush belongs at 23?

Other than the hammy he tweaked during his first camp.FYI...everyone is an injury risk. Unless we're talking Fred Taylor, this argument is almost pointless. Martin, Dillon, Brown, McGahee...never mind...was going to list all the injury concerns but it would be quicker to copy the rankings list and cross out 2 or 3 guys.

 

[J R]

"Who is going to get the carries if not Dayne?" is a sensible retort, no one can assume that Bell will stay healthy enough to garner 250 carries

Maybe I need to have the prescription on my eyeglasses checked, but I looked at Ron Dayne's career numbers and I don't see any season of 250 carries. Why would I assume Ron Dayne will stay healthy?I don't understand why LHUCKS looks at number of carries to determine Ronnie Brown might not be able to handle the workload of a RB1, but looks at number of games played to determine that Ron Dayne is durable. I suppose as far as hating goes, that's a pretty small criticism, but I tried.

 

[J R]

was going to list all the injury concerns but it would be quicker to copy the rankings list and cross out 2 or 3 guys.

you know how to turn a phrase.

 

[Family Matters]

Good analysis LHUCKS!

I'm still undecided on Dayne at this point. If he shares the load then he's going to put up numbers similar to what Anderson did. I also think Cobb could sneak in there and move Dayne back down. It's just too early to get a feel. But I can't help remembering Shanny waned Cobb in the draft. I'm also beginning to believe that we might see a increase in passing attempts and fewer carries, though not dramatically different.

 

[BigJim®]

"Who is going to get the carries if not Dayne?" is a sensible retort, no one can assume that Bell will stay healthy enough to garner 250 carries

Maybe I need to have the prescription on my eyeglasses checked, but I looked at Ron Dayne's career numbers and I don't see any season of 250 carries. Why would I assume Ron Dayne will stay healthy?

As I mentioned, I too am struggling buying into Dayne and I would expect Denver to bring in another RB for the very reason you've cited. However, to your question I would turn it around and ask "What do we know about Dayne that indicates he can't carry the load?" We definitely have an answer to that as to Bell. Dayne remains a question mark.

 

[LHUCKS]

I don't understand why LHUCKS looks at number of carries to determine Ronnie Brown might not be able to handle the workload of a RB1, but looks at number of games played to determine that Ron Dayne is durable. I suppose as far as hating goes, that's a pretty small criticism, but I tried.

Dayne is ranked 39th and Brown is ranked 7...big difference when considering injury risk for each...at least in the LHUCKS methodology there is.

 

[LHUCKS]

FYI...everyone is an injury risk.  Unless we're talking Fred Taylor, this argument is almost pointless.  Martin, Dillon, Brown, McGahee...never mind...was going to list all the injury concerns but it would be quicker to copy the rankings list and cross out 2 or 3 guys.

I'll bet you a subscription brett favre plays more games than Kurt Warner...want some of that action??Didn't think so.

It's about playing percentages...we're not dealing with certainties.

 

[LHUCKS]

However explain to me how Bush is rated lower than:

Kevin Jones

JJ

Cadillac Williams

Thomas Jones

Chester Taylor

I just dont see how Bush has any more risk than these players, KJ stunk it up last year, JJ is obviously a risk for injury, Caddy will most likely break down before your fantasy playoffs,  TJ is also an injury risk with Cedric Benson looming, and Chester Taylor who knows what the situation will be. 

First, I have Thomas Jones and Julius Jones ranked lower than Bush.Second, I ding all rookies for their upside. Historically very few rookies have an impact fantasy wise, thus Bush is battling history. Further, all of the remaining backs you've mentioned(not Julius or Thomas) are projected to be their teams workhorse back, Bush is not as discussed in my initial post.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Here’s part II of this year’s critique series. It has taken me a full week to dissect these rankings as these are the tightest set of RB rankings I’ve ever seen from FBG…I mean I think they are really, really good. Here’s what I came up with for the various categories. Enjoy.

OVERRATED

1) Julius Jones #17

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Jeff Pasquino at #29 and Wimer at #24

LHUCKS Ranking: #26

2) Ronnie Brown #9

Staff With Highest Ranking: Wimer at #5, Pasquino and Lammey at #6

LHUCKS Ranking: #14

UNDERRATED

1) Ron Dayne # 39

Staff With Lowest Ranking: Dave Baker Not Ranked, Pasquino #50, Rudnicki #49

LHUCKS Ranking: #24

2) Warrick Dunn #22

Staff With Highest Ranking: Levin #12, Tremblay #15

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton #27, Lammey #28

LHUCKS Ranking: #16

I had him at #16, so I just missed the coveted .

I pretty much agree with your assessment.

3) Marion Barber III #41

Staff With Highest Ranking: John Norton #37, Will Grant #36

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Not ranked by Mike Anderson and Dave Baker

LHUCKS Ranking: #34

I had him at #38, so I again just missed the coveted .

I'm not high on JJones either, which comes at the expense (and gives opportunity to) MB3.

FBG Shark Ranking - Excellent Ranking by the FBG Staff

1) Reggie Bush Ranked #23

ESPN Ranking: #14

CBS Sportsline Ranking: #14

The FBG ranking of #23 is almost exactly where I would take him…nice ranking by FBG.

======================================================

Those are the RBs, but I always say the money is made at the WR position so I’ll try to churn those out by early next week.

Nice job LHUCKS.Your assessments aligned pretty well to where I had most of the players you mentioned - even Reggie Bush - except for Ronnie Brown and Ron Dayne.

Ronnie Brown

Brown's higher ranking represents his opportunity to get most, if not all, of Ricky William's production. If he only gets 1/2 of it, adding 418 yards and 3 touchdowns brings him up from 1360 yards and 8 TDs to 1778 and 11 TDs. While I don't know about getting nearly 1800 yards, I do see 1500+ and double-digit TDs for him as a real possibility. The workload is still a question, but I believe he will be up to the challenge having played a full season last year. That puts him over 210 fantasy points which is RB9 last year. That's spot on with the consensus, so I don't have a problem with any ranking between 7 and 11. I have him 6th only because I expect a little less from Tiki and Rudi this year than last.

Ron Dayne

This is a first cut at this for me with Denver. I'm hearing that Cedric Cobbs is getting a shot. Who knows what Shanny will do. Could Ron Dayne be higher? Certainly. But I have no idea at this point if he will get 10% or 50% of the workload. I have it right now as an ultra-committee with Bell getting 50-60%, Dayne 20-30% and Cobbs 15-20%. As the 2nd (and possibly soon 3rd) option, I can't put Dayne above anyone I have in the 30s and most in the 40s.

Of course, nothing is set in stone and this is still May. We'll be debating this throughout the summer, just like last year.