LHUCKS' 4th Annual FBG Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

I have much love for Joe, David and the FBG site in general and this series of critiques by no means is intended to be an analysis of negative tone. FBG is easily the best fantasy football product available and if I didn’t respect the opinions of the staff and ownership here I wouldn’t be composing this analysis.

Here’s part III of this year’s critique series. WRs is my favorite position to analyze as I believe this is where the money is made in fantasy football. I also believe it is the easiest position to find value. I spend twice as much time on my WR analysis than I spend on any of the other positions.

Hope you enjoy and bring the rebuttle…that’s what makes it fun. :thumbsup:

OVERRATED

1) Chad Johnson #2

Chad Johnson is arguably the best WR in the game and when Palmer is 100 percent there are few better options at WR as Johnson finished #4 in WR scoring last year. But the problem doesn’t lie with Johnson’s ability or even the Bengals offense, the problem lies with the risk that Palmer could very well not play for a large portion of the season due to major knee surgery over the offseason. Yes the Bengals are declaring they think he’ll be ready for week 1, but nobody is saying Palmer WILL be ready for week one. Until then you’re not going to see me take on that kind of risk with a second round pick.

If you want a high caliber WR take Smith, Fitzgerald, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss or Anquan Boldin. All carry decent or similar upside with less risk at this point in the offseason.

Staff With Highest Ranking: David/Joe, Brown, Baker and Grant at #1

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Hicks/Tremblay at #5 and Shick at #10

LHUCKS Ranking: #7

2) Hines Ward #12

I’m not sure why Hines Ward gets so much love in the ff world. He’s a nice guy? He gets the most out of his talent and is a hard worker? He played for the Superbowl champs and everybody loves a winner? Well, I’m not buying the hype of a #12 ranking and it’s not very difficult to support my claim that he’s one of the most overrated WRs in fantasy football this year.

Here are Hines’ last two years:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 pit |  16 |     7     25    3.6    1 |    80   1004  12.6    4 || 2005 pit |  15 |     3     10    3.3    0 |    69    975  14.1   11 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 127 |    50    385    7.7    1 |   574   7030  12.2   52 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+So Hines is average less than 1000 yards over the past two seasons and less than 80 receptions. Last year he did finish 10th in WR scoring but that was largely due to what I would consider an above average TD total of 11. I would average his TDs over the past two years for a more realistic TD projection of around 8. Additionally notice the relatively low number of receptions. That will hurt him in ppr formats so knock him down a few more if you’re competing in ppr formats.Hines will be a safe play if you want 1000 yards and 8 Tds, but he just doesn’t have the upside in the now conservative, run-first Steelers offense to warrant a #12 WR ranking. There are several WRs with more upside that I’d much rather have as the #12 WR off the board including the following: Driver, Roy Williams, S. Moss, Mason and Galloway.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Rudnicki, Norton and Pasquino all at #9

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Brown at #18, Wimer/Wood/Bloom at #16

LHUCKS Ranking: #18

3) Andre Johnson #16

A lot of owners got burned by Andre Johnson last year as they were undoubtedly enamored with his impressive athletic ability and potential opportunity as the #1 WR for the Texans. Unfortunately many didn’t consider that Carr and the offense in general could severely hamper Andre’s performance. Johnson consistently saw double and triple teams, not to mention bad pass after bad pass from David Carr. Further, Johnson suffered a number of injuries and just never quite got on track in ’05.

Here’s Johnson’s gamelog:

+----------+--------+-------------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSHYD |  REC   YD   | TD |+----------+--------+-------------+----+|  1  buf  |     7  |    3    18  |  0 ||  2  pit  |     0  |    4    20  |  0 ||  4  cin  |     0  |    3    38  |  0 ||  5  ten  |     0  |    0     0  |  0 ||  9  jax  |     0  |    9    91  |  0 || 10  ind  |    -2  |    4    42  |  0 || 11  kan  |     5  |    6    50  |  0 || 12  ram  |     0  |   12   159  |  1 || 13  bal  |     0  |    4    70  |  0 || 14  ten  |     0  |    3    27  |  0 || 15  ari  |    -2  |    7    51  |  0 || 16  jax  |     2  |    7   119  |  1 || 17  sfo  |     0  |    1     3  |  0 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+|  TOTAL   |    10  |   63   688  |  2 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+I notice only four games with 60 yards. Let me repeat that. Johnson only had four games with 60 yards. Now let’s look at Plummer’s first year in Kubiak’s offense:

   |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL      CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD    YPA  TD     YD   2003 280  478  3126   6.54  19  18  543  2629  4.84  20   5755I would be surprised if Carr attains these stats as he’s less accomplished and less experienced than Plummer was in his first year at Denver. It’s more common for QBs to start slow with new offenses than it is for them to start fast. It follows that Kubiak's offense just may not lend itself to lofty WR totals in year one. I like Gary Kubiak and I think Eric Moulds will help alleviate some of the coverage on Johnson, but it’s a tremendous leap of faith to expect Johnson’s numbers to merit a #16 WR ranking when you have several other players that carry significantly less risk with comparable reward including the following: Burress, Branch, Mason, Kennison and Galloway.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Bloom and Lammey at #11

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Wimer at #29 and Tremblay at #26

LHUCKS Ranking: #25

Honorable Mentions: Wilford, Houshmandzadeh, Curtis, Keyshawn Johnson

===================================================

UNDERRATED

1) Santana Moss #14

Last year I projected Santana to be value because his '04 YPC really stood out to me as a player that posed huge upside. Sure enough, Moss saw the targets his talent justified and he put up nearly 1500 yards which ranked him as the #3 WR...interestingly enough with a YPC similar to that of '04 .

So why the sudden drop in Moss’ rank to #14? Al Saunders is the only significant change in Washington and his KC offenses have been putting up 4000+ yards passing year after year. Lloyd and Randle El are not in Santana’s class in terms of playmaking ability so I doubt you’ll see his targets decrease either…particularly if Saunders’ presence increases the offensive productivity to the level of his offenses in KC.

I see a slight decrease in YPC and perhaps a few less TDs, but Santana deserves a much higher consensus ranking for all of the previously mentioned reasons.

Staff With Lowest Ranking: Wimer #32, Levin #20

Staff With Highest Ranking: Lammey #7, Tremblay #8

LHUCKS Ranking: #8

2) Derrick Mason #20

Mason finished 24th among WRs in ‘05 so a ranking of #20 seems reasonable right? Not really.

Let’s take a look at Mason’s last two years with McNair at the helm:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2003 ten |  16 |     3     11    3.7    0 |    95   1303  13.7    8 || 2004 ten |  16 |     1     -3   -3.0    0 |    96   1168  12.2    7 |Looks like an average of about 1240 yards and 7.5 TDs. Those numbers would have been good enough to put Derrick in the top 10 last year. I believe we’ll see a return to that kind of production because McNair is simply better than Boller and the two already have a built a trust which shouldn’t be overlooked...Mason is going to get his targets. I like Mason more than a number of riskier options ranked ahead of him including the following: Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Andre Johnson, Javon Walker among others.

Mason ha a lot of proven reward with relatively little risk, exactly my kind of fantasy WR.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Norton #14 and Lammey #18

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Wimer #36 and Pasquino/Shick #25

LHUCKS Ranking: #12

3) Joey Galloway #22

Much like Moss, Galloway blew away any projection for him as he finished fifth among WRs last year. Nobody was expecting that kind of year from him and quite frankly people still believe it was somewhat of a fluke as his consensus ranking is #22. But was it really a fluke? What has changed between this year and last year that will justify ranking Galloway a full 17 spots less than where he finished last year?

Same coach, check.

Same QB, check.

Same talent, check.

Same YPC in ’05 as career average, check.

Now lets consider some of the reasons people are projecting a down year for Galloway.

1) “He’s injury prone”

Not really. Galloway has averaged close to 14 games played over the span of his career. That number would be closer to 16 had it not been for a year where he missed 15 games.

2) “If Clayton returns to form it will eat into his targets”

Actually while Clayton had his surprise rookie year, Galloway over the last handful of games put up top 10 ppg numbers. Those ppg numbers are why I drafted him in nearly all of my leagues last year. It's possible Galloway just finally found his right fit in terms of offense and chemistry. If Clayton does bounce back I expect it to have a minimal impact on Galloway’s targets. Galloway proved he was a playmaker last year and Gruden is going to find ways to get his most explosive target the ball.

I can think of a few reasons why Galloway shouldn’t be ranked #5, but I can think of many more reasons why he should be ranked higher than #22.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Tremblay and Wimer at #11

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Pasquino at #32, Norton/Grant at #31

LHUCKS Ranking: #14

4) Eddie Kennison #27

In the history of fantasy football I don’t know that there’s been a more disrespected player than Eddie Kennison. The guy constantly produces top 20 numbers and is constantly ranked around 30 or higher. I could’ve told you Kennison was going to make my list of undervalued WRs before the consensus rankings came out. People don’t like him. I don’t know why…maybe it’s because he doesn’t have the vertical leap of Andre Johnson or the Superbowl Trophy like Hines Ward. For whatever reason the sharks are going to be able to draft Eddie at a desirable ADP and reap the rewards. Yes the more conservative Edwards is coming in, but Edwards has already expressed a “if it aint broke don’t fix it” mentality.

Let’s take a look at Coles’ most recent two years with Herm Edwards at the helm:

                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2002 nyj |  16 |     6     39    6.5    0 |    89   1264  14.2    5 || 2005 nyj |  16 |     0      0    0.0    0 |    73    845  11.6    5 |So if you’re concerned about Edwards effecting Eddie’s numbers you shouldn’t be. If Kennison comes even close to those reception totals he’s going to annihilate even my #19 ranking. Remember that Kennison finished as the 18th WR last year with only 68 receptions and 5 TDs. Those numbers can easily be improved upon and are not likely to dip.Once again, we’ve got proven reward with minimal risk.

Staff With Highest Ranking: David/Joe at #21 and Wimer/Tremblay at #22

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton at #40 and Baker at #35

LHUCKS Ranking: #19

5) Reggie Williams #61

Let’s start by taking a look at Reggie’s gamelog from ’05.

+----------+--------+-------------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSHYD |  REC   YD   | TD |+----------+--------+-------------+----+|  1  sea  |     0  |    4    41  |  0 ||  2  ind  |     0  |    4    38  |  0 ||  3  nyj  |     0  |    5    54  |  0 ||  4  den  |     0  |    3    22  |  0 ||  5  cin  |    10  |    2    41  |  0 ||  6  pit  |     0  |    3    50  |  0 ||  8  ram  |     0  |    0     0  |  0 ||  9  hou  |     0  |    0     0  |  0 || 10  bal  |     0  |    0     0  |  0 || 11  ten  |     0  |    1     9  |  0 || 12  ari  |     0  |    0     0  |  0 || 13  cle  |     0  |    0     0  |  0 || 14  ind  |    -7  |    2    25  |  0 || 15  sfo  |     0  |    4    65  |  0 || 16  hou  |     0  |    3    48  |  0 || 17  ten  |     0  |    4    52  |  0 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+|  TOTAL   |     3  |   35   445  |  0 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+So in games where he started or didn’t suffer a concussion Reggie averaged about 44 yards per game and 3.5 receptions. Extrapolate that to a full season and you’re looking at 50+ receptions and roughly 700 yards. Not too bad for year two of Reggie’s career…not to mention it would crush a #61 ranking with any sort of TD production.Over the past two seasons Jacksonville has averaged 3300 passing yards ranking them in the middle of the NFL at #16, but it’s important to note that Leftwich is a young developing QB so an increase in his production is more likely than a regression. Lefty's Y/A and TD/INT ratios were at alltime highs in his third year..usually signs of an improving QB.

Most importantly Reggie is running with the first team now ahead of Wilford. Wilford’s mild success last year has provided the exact camoflauge sharks need to swoop in on Reggie as many may not realize or refuse to realize that Reggie is the likely starter in 2006. The word in Jacksonville is that Reggie has been impressing and a breakout season could be in the works. Don’t sleep on this 61st ranked WR. Reggie could be fantasy gold in ’06.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Tremblay at #31 and Smith at #46

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Unranked by 9 Staffers

LHUCKS Ranking: #46

Honorable Mentions: Koren Robinson, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Michael Clayton, Corey Bradford, Cedrick Wilson, Jurevicius, Gardner

There they are. I hope you enjoy and I look foward to your responses.

opcorn

P.S. This year I might write up my honorable mentions, but I don't get paid to do this so we'll see how much free time I have on my hands before training camps start. I'll writeup the TEs sometime within the next week.

 

[EBF]

I disagree big time on Ward.

Ward finished 27th in the NFL in targets last year and was a top 15 WR in virtually every format. That's insane. I doubt he'll have double digit TDs again, but he's reliable and I fully expect an increased number of targets. There's no risk with Ward and plenty of upside. I think he's a premier WR2 for FF purposes and a better option than some of the guys often listed ahead of him.

 

[LHUCKS]

I disagree big time on Ward.

Ward finished 27th in the NFL in targets last year and was a top 15 WR in virtually every format. That's insane. I doubt he'll have double digit TDs again, but he's reliable and I fully expect an increased number of targets. There's no risk with Ward and plenty of upside. I think he's a premier WR2 for FF purposes and a better option than some of the guys often listed ahead of him.

Why do you expect an increase in targets for Ward?Where did his upside go over the past two years?

Which guys ranked ahead of him would you pass on?

 

[SSOG]

Here’s Johnson’s gamelog:

+----------+--------+-------------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSHYD |  REC   YD   | TD |+----------+--------+-------------+----+|  1  buf  |     7  |    3    18  |  0 ||  2  pit  |     0  |    4    20  |  0 ||  4  cin  |     0  |    3    38  |  0 ||  5  ten  |     0  |    0     0  |  0 ||  9  jax  |     0  |    9    91  |  0 || 10  ind  |    -2  |    4    42  |  0 || 11  kan  |     5  |    6    50  |  0 || 12  ram  |     0  |   12   159  |  1 || 13  bal  |     0  |    4    70  |  0 || 14  ten  |     0  |    3    27  |  0 || 15  ari  |    -2  |    7    51  |  0 || 16  jax  |     2  |    7   119  |  1 || 17  sfo  |     0  |    1     3  |  0 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+|  TOTAL   |    10  |   63   688  |  2 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+

I notice only three games with 60 yards. Let me repeat that. Johnson only had three games with 60 yards.

Count again.

 

[LHUCKS]

Count again.

There's probably more...I hate proofreading.

 

[EBF]

Why do you expect an increase in targets for Ward?

Pittsburgh's QBs only threw the ball 375 times last season. The average for a Bill Cowher Steelers team is about 470 attempts per season (it was 470 during the O'Donnell years and about the same for the Maddox era). Last year Hines Ward had 115 targets, accounting for 30.67% of the team's total. If the team's total pass attempts approaches Cowher's average then Ward's opportunities could increase dramatically. 30.67% of 470 targets is 144 targets. Even if the team only throws it 425 times, Ward could be in line for 130+ targets (assuming he gets his 30% cut).

I highly doubt he'll finish outside the top 12 next year and if he does, it won't be by much.

Where did his upside go over the past two years?

He was a top 10-15 WR in virtually every league last year on a very low number of targets (Deion Branch, Donte Stallworth, Antonio Bryant, Eric Moulds, Jerry Porter, and Muhsin Muhammad all had more chances). If he maintains his 2005 productivity and receives more opportunities then he will easily be a top 10 WR. How is that not upside?

Which guys listed aheada of him would you pass on?

Darrell Jackson, Chris Chambers, and Reggie Wayne

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Steelers aren't likely to be a run-first, conservative offense this year. They lost their power back to retirement and got to the Super Bowl by opening up the offense and letting Ben attack defenses through the air. They'll certainly still run the ball a lot, but I expect a more balanced attack now that Ben is in year 3 and perfectly comfortable with the offensive system. Hines Ward should see a bump in his numbers across the board as a result.

 

[EBF]

I know these kind of stats are a bit silly, but if you look at Ward's per-target 2005 averages and then multiply them by 144 targets, you get the following totals:

86 receptions, 1220 yards, 14 TDs

Upside, upside, upside

 

[SSOG]

Most importantly Reggie is running with the first team now ahead of Wilford. Wilford’s mild success last year has provided the exact camoflauge sharks need to swoop in on Reggie as many may not realize or refuse to realize that Reggie is the likely starter in 2006. The word in Jacksonville is that Reggie has been impressing and a breakout season could be in the works. Don’t sleep on this 61st ranked WR. Reggie could be fantasy gold in ’06.

Staff With Highest Ranking: David/Joe at #21 and Wimer/Tremblay at #22

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton at #40 and Baker at #35

LHUCKS Ranking: #46

Also, pretty sure that LHUCKS Ranking was a typo there. Hard to argue that he's underrated when you have him ranked 11 slots lower than every other person on the staff.

 

[LHUCKS]

Steelers aren't likely to be a run-first, conservative offense this year. They lost their power back to retirement and got to the Super Bowl by opening up the offense and letting Ben attack defenses through the air. They'll certainly still run the ball a lot, but I expect a more balanced attack now that Ben is in year 3 and perfectly comfortable with the offensive system. Hines Ward should see a bump in his numbers across the board as a result.

I'm obviously not convinced as I think Haynes and Staley can definitely maintain the run-first philosophy for Cowher. Further, the Steelers needed to pass in the playoffs. The wont need to in the regular season..not with that defense. I expect a slight bump in receptions and yardage and a decrease in TDs...same old mediocre stats for Hines.

 

[LHUCKS]

Most importantly Reggie is running with the first team now ahead of Wilford.  Wilford’s mild success last year has provided the exact camoflauge sharks need to swoop in on Reggie as many may not realize or refuse to realize that Reggie is the likely starter in 2006. The word in Jacksonville is that Reggie has been impressing and a breakout season could be in the works.  Don’t sleep on this 61st ranked WR.  Reggie could be fantasy gold in ’06.

Staff With Highest Ranking:  David/Joe at #21 and Wimer/Tremblay at #22    

Staff with Lowest Ranking:  Norton at #40 and Baker at #35

LHUCKS Ranking:  #46

Also, pretty sure that LHUCKS Ranking was a typo there. Hard to argue that he's underrated when you have him ranked 11 slots lower than every other person on the staff.

I needed to update the Staff rankings!

 

[Bri]

I find it odd that you can't see "the love" for Andre Johnson. I'd have thought you were all over that too.

You post Hines last two years, if ya go back 3 or 4 years you'd see 10 and 12 TDs in those years. With one off year, the guy scores more TDs than most WRs.

Why so much concern over whom is throwing the ball to Chad when he's significantly better than whomever is coverring him each week?

 

[Bri]

followup to previous thread-

How do you feel about DJax now?

 

[LHUCKS]

Pittsburgh's QBs only threw the ball 375 times last season. The average for a Bill Cowher Steelers team is about 470 attempts per season (it was 470 during the O'Donnell years and about the same for the Maddox era).

I think it's a mistake to average Cowher's attempts per season. They had a very impressive regular season running the ball with a stellar defense. I'd be surprised if they moved away too much from what worked for them.

Last year Hines Ward had 115 targets, accounting for 30.67% of the team's total. If the team's total pass attempts approaches Cowher's average then Ward's opportunities could increase dramatically. 30.67% of 470 targets is 144 targets. Even if the team only throws it 425 times, Ward could be in line for 130+ targets (assuming he gets his 30% cut).

Again I don't expect an increase in targets.

He was a top 10-15 WR in virtually every league last year on a very low number of targets (Deion Branch, Donte Stallworth, Antonio Bryant, Eric Moulds, Jerry Porter, and Muhsin Muhammad all had more chances).

As I stated in the critique over the past two years he's averaged less than 1000 yards and 7.5 TDs...that's not the kind of production I'm looking for out of my 12th ranked WR. I agree with you on this point though...if Ward sees an increase in targets he'll likely justify his ADP. I just don't see it happening. Time will tell.

 

[Couch Potato]

Staff With Highest Ranking: David/Joe at #21 and Wimer/Tremblay at #22

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton at #40 and Baker at #35

LHUCKS Ranking: #46

Correction on the staff rankings for Reggie Willaims. You reused the Kennison rankings here in error.

 

[LHUCKS]

Staff With Highest Ranking:  David/Joe at #21 and Wimer/Tremblay at #22    

Staff with Lowest Ranking:  Norton at #40 and Baker at #35

LHUCKS Ranking:  #46

Correction on the staff rankings for Reggie Willaims. You reused the Kennison rankings here in error.

yeah, just fixed that.

 

[LHUCKS]

followup to previous thread-

How do you feel about DJax now?

I still like him at his ADP as I find it unlikely that he wont be 100 percent on opening day. That being said, I've bumped him down due to the longer than expected effects of the surgery. If he plays the entire season he's going to put up a career year.

 

[MLBrandow]

Chad Johnson is my hero. That said, I expect T-Housh to eat into his red-zone targets even more this year, and while I expect a healthy Palmer to start the season, all of this bad buzz for Cincinnati is really dragging me down. CJ is money for the top-10, but this is definitely a WR I will not take before Steve Smith, Torry Holt or Anquon Boldin. #2 is egregious IMO.

Hines Ward always puts up dependable numbers, and that's why people like him. He's not flashy, but he's steady. 12 seems a bit high for me, as I consider his '05 TD production to also be a bit of an anomaly.

Andre Johnson, Week 9, 12, 13, 16. Not a big deal, but 4 > 3. And he was also hurt until the latter part of the year. I don't buy at all your shtick about Carr being inaccurate, as 60% is pretty solid when you're taking 70 sacks a year.

However, the stat about Plummer in Kubiak's offense is pretty solid. Except I expect more TDs.

Moulds was being double teamed in BUF, and although he's lost a step or three, he'll still warrant some respect, which will take that much more from Andre Johnson, whom I don't expect to be hobbling with a two corners and a free safety on him every play this year.

Santana Moss has top-5 written all over him again this year. I don't understand how people are so down on him. 14 is mad low for a guy who flat out dominated everyone around him last year (especially the Cowboys, who, as luck would have it, he gets to play twice again this year).

Adding gadget guys like Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El will only help him get more open, not less open. He's going to see less double and triple teams, not more.

Great value for me that I can grab a WR in the 4th that I'd gladly take in the 2nd in redrafts.

Derrick Mason presents very solid value for me as well. With my crystal ball, I predict Mason won't be healthy all season, but with Boller he was still on pace for a solid 1100 yards, and with a healthy running game and either QB throwing to him, with an emerging WR2 in Mark Clayton opposite him, he seems money to me to be a fringe WR1 in '06.

Joey Galloway is where you really dropped the ball. His big numbers with Clayton in there in '04 were a result of Griese throwing the ball 40 times a game, not because he was so dominant then. His '05 numbers were a result of Clayton not being there.

This year with the additions of Boston, Stovall and a healthy Clayton as legitimate WRs, as well as the progression of TE Alex Smith and Cadillac getting heavily involved in the receiving game, there is no way you can reasonably expect him to be WR14.

Gruden will be spreading the ball around a LOT more this year, not to mention running as much as possible.

Eddie Kennison has a pretty accurate ADP IMO. The problem here isn't Herm Edwards, it's Larry Johnson. He's so amazing in the redzone, there's no need for Green to force TDs into short WRs that can't jump in the red zone.

That said, I expect him to about hit on his numbers from last year. If you take the 9 games he started with LJ in the backfield, that's about 1100/5.

Factor in the emergence of Samie Parker opposite him, I don't see how he's being that undervalued.

Reggie Williams is definitely undervalued. The problem here is how much? 21, 22, 35, 40, 46... those really aren't even in the same ballpark. Leftwich was on pace for 3400/24 last year until his leg almost fell off in the ARI game. With Marcedes Lewis and Matt Jones looking to be WR1 and 2, I don't see how Williams can hit on big numbers.

However, I don't see how he can hit low enough as WR61, but I also don't see him breaking into fantasy WR2 land. Your prediction of fringe WR4 sounds about right.

 

[LHUCKS]

I find it odd that you can't see "the love" for Andre Johnson. I'd have thought you were all over that too.

Why?

You post Hines last two years, if ya go back 3 or 4 years you'd see 10 and 12 TDs in those years. With one off year, the guy scores more TDs than most WRs.

The problem with going back 3 or 4 years is that the Steelers have a vastly improved defense, improved running game and different philosophy. Hines isn't going to see those targets IMHO.

Why so much concern over whom is throwing the ball to Chad when he's significantly better than whomever is coverring him each week?

I think Maurile Tremblay is auditioning for the #2 QB spot in Cincy...it makes a huge difference who's throwing the ball with respect to passing yardage.

 

[EBF]

I think it's a mistake to average Cowher's attempts per season. They had a very impressive regular season running the ball with a stellar defense. I'd be surprised if they moved away too much from what worked for them.

I know this is a run-first team, but I think 375 attempts represents the absolute floor. Roethlisberger is the best passer that Cowher has ever had. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect an eventual increase in targets and I certainly think he'll chuck it more than 20 times per game next season. The whole "they won the Super Bowl and therefore won't change their gameplan" argument doesn't carry much weight with me. Tom Brady averaged 28.7 attempts/start in 2001. The Patriots won the Super Bowl. Tom Brady averaged 37.5 attempts in 2002. #### happens. Bottom line is that Ward is a reliable player who has maintained decent production on a paltry number of opportunities. Given that there are some legitimate reasons to think his opportunities might increase next year and the fact that he was a top 10-15 WR last year, I see no problem with him at WR12.

 

[MLBrandow]

The whole "they won the Super Bowl and therefore won't change their gameplan" argument doesn't carry much weight with me. Tom Brady averaged 28.7 attempts/start in 2001. The Patriots won the Super Bowl. Tom Brady averaged 37.5 attempts in 2002. #### happens.

It's because he was going out with Tara Reid. He was just trying to impress her.I agree here. Big Ben will throw a lot more, and his TDs went up because Plax left and no one was there to replace him. Well, PIT lost their goal-line guy, and Plax is still gone, and Holmes looks like he's trying to get cut before training camp, and I don't think this defense will be better than it was last year.

 

[Justloveit]

Good read as always.

P.S-sent ya a PM the other day. Let us know if that's cool? Cheers.

 

[LHUCKS]

Chad Johnson is my hero. That said, I expect T-Housh to eat into his red-zone targets even more this year, and while I expect a healthy Palmer to start the season, all of this bad buzz for Cincinnati is really dragging me down. CJ is money for the top-10, but this is definitely a WR I will not take before Steve Smith, Torry Holt or Anquon Boldin. #2 is egregious IMO.

Hines Ward always puts up dependable numbers, and that's why people like him. He's not flashy, but he's steady. 12 seems a bit high for me, as I consider his '05 TD production to also be a bit of an anomaly.

Kennison also puts up those kinds of numbers and you can get him two rounds later.

Andre Johnson, Week 9, 12, 13, 16. Not a big deal, but 4 > 3. And he was also hurt until the latter part of the year. I don't buy at all your shtick about Carr being inaccurate, as 60% is pretty solid when you're taking 70 sacks a year.

I guess my point was that an increase in QB productivity is somewhat of a leap of faith in the short term...it took Jake a while to feel comfortable in that offense, and Jake had a superior offensive line. Point taken about using the word "accuracy" though...probably the wrong word.

Moulds was being double teamed in BUF, and although he's lost a step or three, he'll still warrant some respect, which will take that much more from Andre Johnson, whom I don't expect to be hobbling with a two corners and a free safety on him every play this year.

This I agree with, but I still don't think it's enough to justify Andre's ADP

Santana Moss has top-5 written all over him again this year. I don't understand how people are so down on him. 14 is mad low for a guy who flat out dominated everyone around him last year (especially the Cowboys, who, as luck would have it, he gets to play twice again this year).

Great value for me that I can grab a WR in the 4th that I'd gladly take in the 2nd in redrafts.

Derrick Mason presents very solid value for me as well. With my crystal ball, I predict Mason won't be healthy all season, but with Boller he was still on pace for a solid 1100 yards, and with a healthy running game and either QB throwing to him, with an emerging WR2 in Mark Clayton opposite him, he seems money to me to be a fringe WR1 in '06.

Why do you predict Mason to get injured? Clayton's emergence may or may not cut into Mason, but definitely a factor worth considering.

Joey Galloway is where you really dropped the ball. His big numbers with Clayton in there in '04 were a result of Griese throwing the ball 40 times a game, not because he was so dominant then. His '05 numbers were a result of Clayton not being there.

The Bucs have a tough schedule so I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in pass attempts...not to mention Simms made huge strides last year so Gruden may have more confidence in him if Simms continues to progress. Who is to say Clayton will return to form?

This year with the additions of Boston, Stovall and a healthy Clayton as legitimate WRs, as well as the progression of TE Alex Smith and Cadillac getting heavily involved in the receiving game, there is no way you can reasonably expect him to be WR14.

I don't see most of those players eating into Galloway's targets. Clayton's return to form is the biggest concern which is why I have his production dropping a bit.

Gruden will be spreading the ball around a LOT more this year, not to mention running as much as possible.

Why do you say that?

 

[LHUCKS]

Eddie Kennison has a pretty accurate ADP IMO.  The problem here isn't Herm Edwards, it's Larry Johnson.  He's so amazing in the redzone, there's no need for Green to force TDs into short WRs that can't jump in the red zone.

Kennison only had 5 TDs last year, I can't project him getting less than that while putting up 1100 yards again. Besides, Kennison was a top 20 WR with Holmes in the backfield who was no slouch in the redzone.

That said, I expect him to about hit on his numbers from last year.  If you take the 9 games he started with LJ in the backfield, that's about 1100/5.

His numbers from last year landed him one spot higher than where I have him ranked.

Reggie Williams is definitely undervalued. 

However, I don't see how he can hit low enough as WR61, but I also don't see him breaking into fantasy WR2 land.  Your prediction of fringe WR4 sounds about right.

Nice feedback Brandow.

 

[Bri]

Why so much concern over whom is throwing the ball to Chad when he's significantly better than whomever is coverring him each week?

I think Maurile Tremblay is auditioning for the #2 QB spot in Cincy...it makes a huge difference who's throwing the ball with respect to passing yardage.

lol he's too smart and would waste too much time planning the trajectory of the ball instead of just throwing it.Seriously, I just figure Chad's the type of guy that will get his. If there's only 200 yards passing per game then that'll hurt Housh and Perry and whomever else but he'll get his. He's no Randy Moss or Gates but to a lesser degree he seems to have so much going for him physically that similarly no one can matchup favorably with him.

 

[LHUCKS]

Bottom line is that Ward is a reliable player who has maintained decent production on a paltry number of opportunities. Given that there are some legitimate reasons to think his opportunities might increase next year and the fact that he was a top 10-15 WR last year, I see no problem with him at WR12.

Sure, I don't have a problem with ranking him #12 if you expect an increase in targets. That's basically what it comes down to here.

 

[LHUCKS]

Why so much concern over whom is throwing the ball to Chad when he's significantly better than whomever is coverring him each week?

I think Maurile Tremblay is auditioning for the #2 QB spot in Cincy...it makes a huge difference who's throwing the ball with respect to passing yardage.

lol he's too smart and would waste too much time planning the trajectory of the ball instead of just throwing it.Seriously, I just figure Chad's the type of guy that will get his. If there's only 200 yards passing per game then that'll hurt Housh and Perry and whomever else but he'll get his. He's no Randy Moss or Gates but to a lesser degree he seems to have so much going for him physically that similarly no one can matchup favorably with him.

I suppose it's possible, but I would bet against it. Further, Johnson finished 4th last year so it seems odd to rank him higher than last year's finish with Palmer's questions.Don't get me wrong, I'm not projecting him to fall off the face of the earth. I'm just saying there are safer options with similar upside in my top 7 ranked WRs.

 

[Bri]

You post Hines last two years, if ya go back 3 or 4 years you'd see 10 and 12 TDs in those years. With one off year, the guy scores more TDs than most WRs.

The problem with going back 3 or 4 years is that the Steelers have a vastly improved defense, improved running game and different philosophy. Hines isn't going to see those targets IMHO.

I don't think they're running game is improved without the Bus. IMO They'll be lucky to keep it as proficient.Steelers Ds have always been tough IMO and kudos to Cowher+Lebeau for that. For me, it doesn't seem to change year to year or from player to player due to free agency.

 

[LHUCKS]

The whole "they won the Super Bowl and therefore won't change their gameplan" argument doesn't carry much weight with me. Tom Brady averaged 28.7 attempts/start in 2001. The Patriots won the Super Bowl. Tom Brady averaged 37.5 attempts in 2002. #### happens.

Due to a number of reasons including a dinged up running game and defense, the Patriots reverted to the pass. If the Steelers sustained the same injuries, I'd say "sure, the Steelers are going to air it out now."

My opinion is that the Steelers will have the same dominant defense and running game. I don't think they'll pass just because they are capable. The best way to keep your QB healthy in the NFL is to run the football.

 

[LHUCKS]

You post Hines last two years, if ya go back 3 or 4 years you'd see 10 and 12 TDs in those years. With one off year, the guy scores more TDs than most WRs.

The problem with going back 3 or 4 years is that the Steelers have a vastly improved defense, improved running game and different philosophy. Hines isn't going to see those targets IMHO.

I don't think they're running game is improved without the Bus. IMO They'll be lucky to keep it as proficient.

Hard to say if Staley, Parker and Haynes can pick up the slack...but let's remember that Bettis was primarily a goalline back last year with only 368 rushing yards on the entire season with a YPC of 3.3. Those numbers are easily attainable by Haynes alone IMHO. I think the Steelers lose some at the goalline and that's about it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Bravo, Awesome, Superb. Great read, I think along the lines you are.

 

[LHUCKS]

Going to bed now...fully expect to wake up to all the angry East Coast dynasty owners of Ward, Andre Johnson and Chad Johnson.

 

[MLBrandow]

Hines Ward always puts up dependable numbers, and that's why people like him.  He's not flashy, but he's steady.  12 seems a bit high for me, as I consider his '05 TD production to also be a bit of an anomaly.

Kennison also puts up those kinds of numbers and you can get him two rounds later.

Derrick Mason presents very solid value for me as well.  With my crystal ball, I predict Mason won't be healthy all season, but with Boller he was still on pace for a solid 1100 yards, and with a healthy running game and either QB throwing to him, with an emerging WR2 in Mark Clayton opposite him, he seems money to me to be a fringe WR1 in '06.

Why do you predict Mason to get injured? Clayton's emergence may or may not cut into Mason, but definitely a factor worth considering.

Joey Galloway is where you really dropped the ball.  His big numbers with Clayton in there in '04 were a result of Griese throwing the ball 40 times a game, not because he was so dominant then. His '05 numbers were a result of Clayton not being there.

The Bucs have a tough schedule so I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in pass attempts...not to mention Simms made huge strides last year so Gruden may have more confidence in him if Simms continues to progress. Who is to say Clayton will return to form?

This year with the additions of Boston, Stovall and a healthy Clayton as legitimate WRs, as well as the progression of TE Alex Smith and Cadillac getting heavily involved in the receiving game, there is no way you can reasonably expect him to be WR14.

I don't see most of those players eating into Galloway's targets. Clayton's return to form is the biggest concern which is why I have his production dropping a bit.

Gruden will be spreading the ball around a LOT more this year, not to mention running as much as possible.

Why do you say that?

per Kennison:Ward will score more TDs than Kennison, and after you leap off the cliff of elite WRs this year, 3-4 TDs is a big difference. Well, to me at least. FWIW, I'm not really looking to draft either, as there is better value elsewhere to me.

per Mason:

I meant McNair.

per Galloway:

Schedule toughness is overrated IMO. This offense is going to shovel healthy servings of Cadillac Williams into every defense it faces. Only NE and their inclimate weather (he'd only seen snow once in his life before that game) could shut down a healthy CW.

Having the 2nd toughest schedule this year will be a hurdle for the Bucs, but it is not one they can't overcome. Their defense will be more aggressive this year than it was last year with DeWayne White putting together what I hope is a 15-sack season opposite Rice. I expect to see some good footballing, but not a lot of late comebacks necessary.

I'm looking at a 10-6/12-4 season for the Bucs, and I don't see how they are playing from behind enough to pass nearly as much as their '04 campaign, or enough to make up for a healthy Clayton and legitimate WR3/4's.

Link to my post on Clayton right after I responded to your thread.

WR3/4 guys didn't eat into his targets in '04 and '05 because they weren't there.

The Bucs had only a few healthy receivers on their roster (Clayton was WR1 in week 1, and was expected to be the WR4 at best, behind Galloway, Brown and Jurevicius). He was battling for the WR4 spot with Edell Shepherd, who also was lost for the season before W1.

This year though, the Bucs WR corps is the most talented it's been probably in the history of the organization. And Gruden wants to spread the ball out a lot more than last year. When Simms first came in last year, although he knew the playbook inside and out, Gruden for the most part kept it simple to build up his confidence.

If you look at WR receptions, Gruden loves to get a handful of different guys with primary reads. If you want a good idea on how a full-fledged Gruden offense works, check out the '96 Eagles and mix it with the '01 Raiders. In one, he's got his run-happy offense with a fair passing game, and the other he's got his pass-happy offense with his fair running game.

Now he's got the burner at TE, the RB1/2 with 40-50 receptions each, his WR1/2 looking at 1k splits, and overall almost a half dozen guys with 50+ targets.

I just don't see how Galloway can put up numbers like he did before the offensive pieces were in all in place. He's going into his 12th year and will be facing the better corners on each team as well as the double teams just like last year. Only this year Simms has six other guys to throw to instead of two.

 

[Browns Rule!]

Eddie Kennison has a pretty accurate ADP IMO. The problem here isn't Herm Edwards, it's Larry Johnson. He's so amazing in the redzone, there's no need for Green to force TDs into short WRs that can't jump in the red zone.

That said, I expect him to about hit on his numbers from last year. If you take the 9 games he started with LJ in the backfield, that's about 1100/5.

Factor in the emergence of Samie Parker opposite him, I don't see how he's being that undervalued.

This is one place where I think you are way wrong. #1 - the emergence of Samie Parker was supposed to happen last year, and while Parker was solid at times, Kennison was obviously the target Green trusted more.

#2 - Larry Johnson in the redzone is far less than Priest Holmes was in the redzone. Larry Johnson doesn't have nearly the patience Priest had, and just isn't as smart of a runner. He may have better speed and power, but that will only come into play between the 20's.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I wish you had done the writeup on Jabbar Gaffney. I've been semi pimping this guy for a month or so now.

 

[nygiants56]

great work!

the only one I disagree with is Santana Moss..

with LLoyd, Randle El on board, it is hard to imagine Moss duplicating his 2005 numbers.Also, I'm not so sure Brunell makes it a full 16 game schedule, so, is Jason Campbell ready? If he plays, EVERYONE's numbers in DC are sure to take a hit..

in the final 7 weeks of 2005, Brunell failed to throw for over 200 yards in a single game, in fact, only once did he throw for over 163 yards in a game, during that time span..Moss, during that same span, caught just 4 tds ( 3 in one game)avg'd 4.4 catches per game for just 78 yards , a stat largely bloated by one game: vs. NYG where he went 5-160-3.

Now Washington has a new OC who likes throwing to the TE, and loves to run the offense thru the RB position, while taking the occasional shot downfield..

Cooley figures to be a huge part of this offense in 2006, and Portis is guaranteed an uptick in the amount of work he's going to receive..

with all of this going on, its hard to imagine Moss catching more than 70 passes.

He'll probably be on the receiving end of quite a few long TD's, but that offense is loaded with talent at other positions. Judging by Saunders' history of success with rushing the ball, you can see that Portis is probably going to approach 20 TDs and 1600+ yards, and he's likely to see some 350+ carries..not to mention what Cooley takes away from Moss. What's worse, if/when Brunell goes down, that offense is going to sputter with Jason Campbell at QB.

Moss is solid, but iffy QB play and an OC with a penchant for extensively using TE's and RB's , has to deflate Moss' value, not increase it, IMO.

Love the Kennison piece, he's a sleeper for sure! what about Mark Clayton, he looked like a man among boys last year while on the field..the coaches RAVE about him, and he caught the most passes of any rookie WR in '05..the Ravens defense is going backwards, the running game is stuck in reverse, and as a result, the team might need to pass quite a bit more to be competitive..they finally have the QB to do so.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

1) Chad Johnson #2

Chad Johnson is arguably the best WR in the game and when Palmer is 100 percent there are few better options at WR as Johnson finished #4 in WR scoring last year. But the problem doesn’t lie with Johnson’s ability or even the Bengals offense, the problem lies with the risk that Palmer could very well not play for a large portion of the season due to major knee surgery over the offseason. Yes the Bengals are declaring they think he’ll be ready for week 1, but nobody is saying Palmer WILL be ready for week one. Until then you’re not going to see me take on that kind of risk with a second round pick.

Chad Johnson 2004-5 with Carson Palmer: 96/1353/9Chad Johnson 2003 with Jon F'n Kitna: 90/1355/10

Why exactly does the potential loss of palmer equate to decreased numbers for Johnson? I really don't follow that line of reasoning given his past performance with less-than-super QB talent is very much in line with what he did with Palmer.

I can see factors that might drop him a bit, but I don't know that who his QB will be is high on that list for me.

 

[gocats]

Thanks alot for the premium content LHUCKS

 

[LHUCKS]

1)  Chad Johnson #2

Chad Johnson is arguably the best WR in the game and when Palmer is 100 percent there are few better options at WR as Johnson finished #4 in WR scoring last year.  But the problem doesn’t lie with Johnson’s ability or even the Bengals offense, the problem lies with the risk that Palmer could very well not play for a large portion of the season due to major knee surgery over the offseason.  Yes the Bengals are declaring they think he’ll be ready for week 1, but nobody is saying Palmer WILL be ready for week one.  Until then you’re not going to see me take on that kind of risk with a second round pick. 

Chad Johnson 2004-5 with Carson Palmer: 96/1353/9Chad Johnson 2003 with Jon F'n Kitna: 90/1355/10

Why exactly does the potential loss of palmer equate to decreased numbers for Johnson? I really don't follow that line of reasoning given his past performance with less-than-super QB talent is very much in line with what he did with Palmer.

I can see factors that might drop him a bit, but I don't know that who his QB will be is high on that list for me.

If Jon Kitna was on the roster I'd feel a lot better about drafting Johnson #2...unfortunately he isn't.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Steelers aren't likely to be a run-first, conservative offense this year. They lost their power back to retirement and got to the Super Bowl by opening up the offense and letting Ben attack defenses through the air. They'll certainly still run the ball a lot, but I expect a more balanced attack now that Ben is in year 3 and perfectly comfortable with the offensive system. Hines Ward should see a bump in his numbers across the board as a result.

I pointed this out in the Heath Miller spotlight thread. I think Cowher has the confidence in Roethisberger to pass more on a team without a premiere RB.

 

[LHUCKS]

great work!

the only one I disagree with is Santana Moss..

with LLoyd, Randle El on board, it is hard to imagine Moss duplicating his 2005 numbers.

I never said he was going to duplicate his numbers. I'm just stating he's undervalued as the #14 WR. Last year he only had 84 receptions.

Also, I'm not so sure Brunell makes it a full 16 game schedule, so, is Jason Campbell ready? If he plays, EVERYONE's numbers in DC are sure to take a hit..

in the final 7 weeks of 2005, Brunell failed to throw for over 200 yards in a single game, in fact, only once did he throw for over 163 yards in a game, during that time span..Moss, during that same span, caught just 4 tds ( 3 in one game)avg'd 4.4 catches per game for just 78 yards , a stat largely bloated by one game: vs. NYG where he went 5-160-3.

I think only looking at a certain stretch of games can be dangerous in some instances. If Campbell comes in I don't think it necessarily means decreased numbers for Moss...as you mention, Brunell wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire.

Now Washington has a new OC who likes throwing to the TE, and loves to run the offense thru the RB position, while taking the occasional shot downfield..

Cooley figures to be a huge part of this offense in 2006, and Portis is guaranteed an uptick in the amount of work he's going to receive..

with all of this going on, its hard to imagine Moss catching more than 70 passes.

He'll probably be on the receiving end of quite a few long TD's, but that offense is loaded with talent at other positions.

The offense was loaded with talent last year. Also, Kennison has put up consistent numbes under Saunders despite being a less potent WR. I still think Moss lands high 70's reception totals which isn't terribly atypical of a #1 WR. It's not like we're projecting 90 receptions here.

 

[LHUCKS]

Steelers aren't likely to be a run-first, conservative offense this year. They lost their power back to retirement and got to the Super Bowl by opening up the offense and letting Ben attack defenses through the air. They'll certainly still run the ball a lot, but I expect a more balanced attack now that Ben is in year 3 and perfectly comfortable with the offensive system. Hines Ward should see a bump in his numbers across the board as a result.

I pointed this out in the Heath Miller spotlight thread. I think Cowher has the confidence in Roethisberger to pass more on a team without a premiere RB.

Bettis didn't even have 400 yards last year and he had a 3.3 YPC. I believe the loss of Bettis is being over emphasized in terms of its impact on the Steelers offensive philosophy. His absence were hurt them at the goalline and that's about it.

 

[LHUCKS]

I just don't see how Galloway can put up numbers like he did before the offensive pieces were in all in place. He's going into his 12th year and will be facing the better corners on each team as well as the double teams just like last year. Only this year Simms has six other guys to throw to instead of two.

Remember, I'm not saying Galloway will duplicate his numbers as I have him ranked 14th. I'm simply stating he's undervalued as the #22 ranked WR.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Steelers aren't likely to be a run-first, conservative offense this year. They lost their power back to retirement and got to the Super Bowl by opening up the offense and letting Ben attack defenses through the air. They'll certainly still run the ball a lot, but I expect a more balanced attack now that Ben is in year 3 and perfectly comfortable with the offensive system. Hines Ward should see a bump in his numbers across the board as a result.

I pointed this out in the Heath Miller spotlight thread. I think Cowher has the confidence in Roethisberger to pass more on a team without a premiere RB.

Bettis didn't even have 400 yards last year and he averaged a 3.3 YPC. I believe the loss of Bettis is being over emphasized.

And I think you are underemphasizing the liklihood that Pittsburgh will throw more this year. Sounds like you have confidence in Pitt's running game. I do not. I think Pitt RBs will get their yards and their TDs. But in Pitt you have Staley, a RB that cannot stay healthy, and Parker and Hayes - two RBs that are not premiere starters. Cowher will rely on Ben more this year.Good job on your critique overall, L.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Good thread LHucks, I agree with most of your work here...particularly CJ. As good a WR as CJ is Palmer spreads the ball in that O. Housh is a very solid #2, Henry #3 and Perry a great threat out of the backfield. Early in the year the Bengals are likely to pound the ball with Rudi and save Palmer as many potential blindside hits as possible.

Call me a homer but I believe Ward is better than his ADP of WR12. Yes his reception totals were down last year and his TD totals were up...but...some big keys to him improving on last year's numbers:

1) He missed training camp last year, this set him back even caused him to miss a game due to injury.

2) The Steelers threw the fewest passes in the NFL the past two years. They won't change their identity (Run late with the lead) but their best skill players on O are now in the passing game. Their past three first round picks have all been to boost the passing game (Roethlisberger, Miller, Holmes). The 60-40 run/pass ratio they have carried the past two years is likely to creep closer to 55-45 this year. Roethlisberger has earned the right to throw more and the tough schedule will dictate it.

3) Willie Parker is hit or miss. For every long TD run there are plenty of times the Steelers will be facing 2nd and long or 3rd and long.

4) Ward did score an unusually high number of TDs in relation to catches last year. But there is reason to believe he can maintain or improve those TD numbers in 2006. The Steelers lost their top redzone threat, Bettis. The Steelers ran the ball 53 of 70 times inside their opponents 10 yard line last year, tops in the league. Without Bettis that number is likely to shift more to the pass.

5) Coverage. The Steelers had 1st year starters at RB, WR2, WR3 and TE last year. Coverages were slanted towards Ward. I expect Miller, Wilson, and even Nate Washington to be given much more respect in the passing game this year...giving Ward more opportunity to exploit match-ups.

6) Deep threat. The Steelers had no deep threat last year and Roethlisberger's thumb injury limited his deep ball. Throw in Santonio Holmes and a healthy thumb and defenses have to respect the deep ball again giving Ward more room to roam.

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Excellent info on Reggie. Spot on.

 

[LHUCKS]

Excellent info on Reggie. Spot on.

I think his consensus is the furthest off of all the WRs I mentioned. Great talent in a great situation.

One of my top buy-low candidates.

 

[rascal]

I'm curious as to why everyone is so down on McCardell this year but up on Reche Caldwell.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm curious as to why everyone is so down on McCardell this year but up on Reche Caldwell.

I think Rivers concerns some people regarding McCardell's numbrs.On Caldwell, he looks like the favorite to start at this juncture unless you think Troy Brown or Chad Jackson have a shot. It really doesn't seem like most are high on Caldwell, his consensus ranking is #62.

 

[joffer]

Excellent info on Reggie. Spot on.

I think his consensus is the furthest off of all the WRs I mentioned. Great talent in a great situation.

One of my top buy-low candidates.

every time i read something about him that came out of 04 and 05 training camps, it was dissappointing. he may well keep that starting job, but i'm in a wait-and-see mode on him.agree on Kennison, AJohnson, Moss. disagree on Ward and Mason. nice write-up though.

my biggest underrated right now is Stallworth.