LHUCKS Draft Strategy 2009 (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Normally I put out my "Rankings Critique" earlier in the year, but this year I'm going with a different approach for a couple of different reasons. First, FBG rankings are ranked according to projections...that doesn't do an average drafter much good in terms of where to draft guys in a typical redraft head to head format. Second, I don't project static values for projections, because they aren't very valuable IMHO. I project ranges that are skewed by "risk factors"....thus it never really made sense to perform those critiques since my rankings and FBG rankings are based on two completely different premises, although I do think they brought about some good discussion, maybe next year I'll do both.

Below is the QB ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away

I never draft the players in red unless they have an uncharacteristic slide. If players are not highlighted that means I'd consider drafting them but wouldn't necessarily target them.

11) Drew Brees

15) Tom Brady NE

22) Peyton Manning

31) Aaron Rodgers

36) Kurt Warner

37) Philip Rivers

46) Tony Romo

52) Donovan McNabb

62) Matt Ryan

69) Matt Schaub

71) Jay Cutler

78) Carson Palmer

89) Ben Roethlisberger

94) Matt Cassel

98) Eli Manning

105) Matt Hasselbeck

115) David Garrard

119) Kyle Orton DEN

121) Trent Edwards

136) Brett Favre

139) Jake Delhomme

143) Joe Flacco

146) Chad Pennington

156) Jason Campbell

177) Mark Sanchez

181) Matthew Stafford

184) Shaun Hill SF

185) Marc Bulger

193) Brady Quinn

197) Kerry Collins

200) Michael Vick

202) JaMarcus Russell

226) Sage Rosenfels

256) Daunte Culpepper

QB Strategy Summary

In most leagues if I don't get Brady or Brees early, I target a Schaub/Palmer or Shaub/Hasselbeck combo. I also end up with Shaun Hill as my QB #3 more often than not.

If you have any questions about why I like particular players or my strategy feel free to ask. I'll try to answer all questions as they come in. If there is enough interest in this thread I'll put out the other positions. If not, happy drafting!!

 

[Justloveit]

Thanks LHUCKS for the post. I hope you'll do a similar thing with the WRs, RBs and TEs.

One guy I was keen on getting your opinion on was Carson Palmer. It's been a while since Palmer was a top 5 QB. What outlook do you have for him this year? I see you are targetting him. Are you not worried about the Bengals Oline?

 

[TwinTurbo]

I see you have J.Russel as green. What is your analysis for him? Also I agree with you on waiting for Schaub or Palmer although I would include Cutler along with those two. All three are dropping into round 6/7. I also like Garrard as a sneaky #2 QB that will outperform his ADP.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Lhucks, why do you like Schaub and Hasselbeck? I am with you on Schaub, somewhat on Palmer, but not at all with Hasselbeck. Also, what makes you want to target one of the top 2 QBs? To me it's better to wait on Schaub as your starter, because I see him putting up top 5 numbers and is about 7 rounds cheaper, ADP wise.

I usually target a Schaub/Mcnabb combo, myself.

 

[Justloveit]

yeh im interested to hear your projections for Brady. Do you tihnk he'll toss 40tds again? If you are unable to get someone like Brees or Brady in your draft what sort of players are you willing to give up for them in a trade? Are you still prepared to trade for them if you draft the likes of Garrard or Palmer?

 

[LHUCKS]

If Leg 1 of LHUCKS' QB Strategy 2009 is "The QB Position", I can't wait to see how "The RB Position" figures into the QB Strategy.

oops, good catch!

 

[davearm]

Thanks LHUCKS for the post. I hope you'll do a similar thing with the WRs, RBs and TEs.

I'd also like to see threads on the other positions LHUCKS.

 

[LHUCKS]

One guy I was keen on getting your opinion on was Carson Palmer. It's been a while since Palmer was a top 5 QB. What outlook do you have for him this year? I see you are targetting him. Are you not worried about the Bengals Oline?

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

 

[elshagon]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

 

[kurtrudder]

One guy I was keen on getting your opinion on was Carson Palmer. It's been a while since Palmer was a top 5 QB. What outlook do you have for him this year? I see you are targetting him. Are you not worried about the Bengals Oline?

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

See the thing is....it's hasn't been that long since Palmer was a top 5 QB....but its a perception out there which is why Palmer is barely being drafted as a starting QB....yet he is only 2 years removed from consecutive top 5 seasons....one of which was the No.1 QB in FF. I think Palmer is a fantastic value at his ADP

 

[LHUCKS]

I see you have J.Russel as green. What is your analysis for him? Also I agree with you on waiting for Schaub or Palmer although I would include Cutler along with those two. All three are dropping into round 6/7. I also like Garrard as a sneaky #2 QB that will outperform his ADP.

Not touching Cutler.- Chicago is simply not going to pass enough to justify his ADP- Doesn't have near the weapons he had in in Denver- Better running game and better defense = fewer pass attempts

 

[LHUCKS]

One guy I was keen on getting your opinion on was Carson Palmer. It's been a while since Palmer was a top 5 QB. What outlook do you have for him this year? I see you are targetting him. Are you not worried about the Bengals Oline?

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

See the thing is....it's hasn't been that long since Palmer was a top 5 QB....but its a perception out there which is why Palmer is barely being drafted as a starting QB....yet he is only 2 years removed from consecutive top 5 seasons....one of which was the No.1 QB in FF. I think Palmer is a fantastic value at his ADP

I'll be here all week fellas...just wait til you see my RB value plays.

 

[LHUCKS]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

 

[LHUCKS]

yeh im interested to hear your projections for Brady. Do you tihnk he'll toss 40tds again? If you are unable to get someone like Brees or Brady in your draft what sort of players are you willing to give up for them in a trade? Are you still prepared to trade for them if you draft the likes of Garrard or Palmer?

Hey bud, sorry I didn't get back to your PM...I get a lot this time of the year and have been busy with my own drafts. Anyhow, to answer your questions...I've got Brady's TD range from 34 - 48, which gives him the most upside of all QBs. I don't usually draft assuming I can make trades, most of my leagues are pretty tight on trades. That being said, I would definitely target Palmer as a backup to Brady(for example) if I was confident I could move him. Palmer and Schaub are gold this year.

 

[Avery]

A general question: It would be helpful to know what kind of scoring system these recommendations are based on. The points for passing TDs vs rushing TDs and how passing yards are scored vs rushing yards can, in some cases, dramatically skew scoring positively for the more mobile QBs. Garrard is a great example whose contribution with some rushing yards and TDs makes him a far more valuable player in some leagues.

A specific question: Are you sour on Rivers because you see a regression in his numbers or is it based more on cost of where you likely have to draft him to get him this year?

Edit to add: Never mind the specific question. I think I found your answer.

Rivers is the most overrated QB in the NFL...has been for some time.

 

[Malabar]

excellent post !!! I have been targeting both Schaub and Palmer in every single draft i've had.

one thing I disagree is Rodgers vs. Rivers. I know the consensus is Rodgers > Rivers, but my gut tells me Rivers finishes ahead of Rodgers this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

excellent post !!! I have been targeting both Schaub and Palmer in every single draft i've had.one thing I disagree is Rodgers vs. Rivers. I know the consensus is Rodgers > Rivers, but my gut tells me Rivers finishes ahead of Rodgers this year.

Don't listen to your gut...SD was playing from behind all year last year and had a hobbled running game. With a better defense, Norv wants to return to his traditional balanced attack that made them one of the best teams in the AFC.

 

[LHUCKS]

A general question: It would be helpful to know what kind of scoring system these recommendations are based on. The points for passing TDs vs rushing TDs and how passing yards are scored vs rushing yards can, in some cases, dramatically skew scoring positively for the more mobile QBs. Garrard is a great example whose contribution with some rushing yards and TDs makes him a far more valuable player in some leagues.

Standard FBG scoring...non ppr.

A specific question: Are you sour on Rivers because you see a regression in his numbers or is it based more on cost of where you likely have to draft him to get him this year?

Both...see above post. Palmer and Schaub will easily outproduce him and you can draft them rounds later.

 

[cvnpoka]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

youve gotta admit manning is much more likely to put up those numbers. schaub and palmer have a lot more risk, but manning is as close to a lock as we have ever seen.anyway, im with ya on palmer, i think hes great value and i have been targeting him all draft season. at this point, i think i have him on too many teams.

 

[LHUCKS]

Lhucks, why do you like Schaub and Hasselbeck? I am with you on Schaub, somewhat on Palmer, but not at all with Hasselbeck.

Hassel, like Palmer, is one of the best passers in the game...further, his defense will suck and he's in the NFC West with some great weapons. The O-line is a concern, but he's worth the risk at his ADP...he's got much more upside than the QBs being taken in his ADP range. He's also looked great in the preseason. He's a great #2, but you don' t want him as your #1 because of injury risk.

Also, what makes you want to target one of the top 2 QBs? To me it's better to wait on Schaub as your starter, because I see him putting up top 5 numbers and is about 7 rounds cheaper, ADP wise.

Agreed, in Ultimate Surivor 6 I landed a McNabb/Schaub combo in the early middle rounds. Again, whether or not I target Brees/Brady really will depend on the league, in general I think they're going too late based on what I've seen from other drafts.

I usually target a Schaub/Mcnabb combo, myself.

As mentioned above...this is the exact same combo I drafted in FBG Survivor 6...nice job.

 

[LHUCKS]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

youve gotta admit manning is much more likely to put up those numbers. schaub and palmer have a lot more risk, but manning is as close to a lock as we have ever seen.

The guy who wins his league is the guy that makes the best risk/reward picks. Manning may be low risk, but you've got to admit that his reward is almost identical to QBs that you can get 5 rounds later...doesn't make any sense. Manning is not worth his price.

 

[karmarooster]

agree with you

avoid:

-Manning

-Cutler

for all the reasons you listed, not to mention o-line problems.

target:

-schaub

-palmer

however i think palmer is much riskier than schaub. palmer DID play with a competent o-line during his great seasons, including willie anderson anchoring the RT... he helped produce a solid ground game. i don't think the o-line will be as good, esp. since andre smith is STILL un-signed and benson isn't as good as rudi was in his prime.

but i would also add....

target:

-mcnabb

-rodgers

i think rodgers could outproduce manning this year, and mcnabb has so many weapons, pluse the defense has to game-plan for vick. i see a career year coming for mcnabb. vick will help mcnabb's numbers more than hurt because the defense has to worry about him.

avoid:

-romo..... i felt this way even before roy williams got hurt

don't agree with you

-rivers - he won't be as good as last year, but he's still top 5ish

great post

 

[LHUCKS]

don't agree with you

-rivers - he won't be as good as last year, but he's still top 5ish

So you like his ADP, even though you agree his numbers will dip?

 

[Clash of the Titans]

since you are down on warner as expected..........is this the year matt leinart rewards his faithful backers and makes the leap??? or does warner just put up average numbers due to health or a more balanced attack ??

 

[LHUCKS]

but i would also add....

target:

-mcnabb

-rodgers

i think rodgers could outproduce manning this year, and mcnabb has so many weapons, pluse the defense has to game-plan for vick. i see a career year coming for mcnabb. vick will help mcnabb's numbers more than hurt because the defense has to worry about him.

Rodgers is a solid play, I like him at his ADP, but not much earlier. McNabb's will not match his T.O. days...no way. I do like McNabb at his current ADP though...I took him in FBG survivor 6 and paired with Schaub.

avoid:

-romo..... i felt this way even before roy williams got hurt

yeah, I'm non committal on Romo, but he's looked so sharp this preseason and Garret doesn't mind chucking the rock early and often. He'll likely be on zero of my teams this year but I think his ADP is about right.

don't agree with you

-rivers - he won't be as good as last year, but he's still top 5ish

I just don't see it...maybe if their defense falls apart again, which is possible.

great post

 

[LHUCKS]

since you are down on warner as expected..........is this the year matt leinart rewards his faithful backers and makes the leap??? or does warner just put up average numbers due to health or a more balanced attack ??

I can't believe he stayed healthy last year. If Leinart gets the opportunity I think he'll surprise...I was backing him BEFORE his strong preseason...guy has talent and has rededicated his self. Warner will put up good numbers as long as he's healthy...the run blocking just isn't good enough yet to justify abandoning the pass first approach that was so effective against even the best defenses.

 

[karmarooster]

don't agree with you

-rivers - he won't be as good as last year, but he's still top 5ish

So you like his ADP, even though you agree his numbers will dip?

i don't think there's a very good chance that rivers will outproduce his ADP.... i'd say his ADP is about right, and i would certainly draft him before Warner. last year he was what, top 3? i think this year 4-6 is more likely. his TDs drop.... but 4000 yards and 30 TDs is pretty solid, and he's a very safe pick, which is very valuable. regarding Romo.... let me put it this way. assuming romo and schaub both play all 16 games, there's no way Romo out-produces schaub. schaub's injuries last year came on dirty plays. i'm pretty sure dirty jared allen got fined big time.

for Mcnabb... his TO year was 2004 right? 3875 yards, 31 TDs. i would agree that the TDs are out of reach, but i don't think the yardage is. he has weapons everywhere.... deshaun, maclin, curtis, celek, westbrook, mccoy... plus the opposing defense has to spend at least 25% of their time game-planning for a handful of Vick plays. that's a major benefit for the standard offense.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

One guy I was keen on getting your opinion on was Carson Palmer. It's been a while since Palmer was a top 5 QB. What outlook do you have for him this year? I see you are targetting him. Are you not worried about the Bengals Oline?

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

I think a lot of people are concerned about his elbow, but I'm not one of them. I have Palmer ranked 5th and at his ADP, he is a steal. Chad looks like the old Chad too and overall, his WRs are lights out. Palmer is being drafted as a mid 7th rounder on average. He might be the most undervalued player in drafts. I'm also with you on Shaun Hill. He has put up close to low end QB1 numbers when he has started and is being drafted as a QB3 in some leagues. I've seen Sanchez and Russell get drafted before Hill near the end of drafts. I'd rather shoot for upside late and Hill offers plenty of that.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Agree with pretty much everything except Rivers and possibly Orton.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Hey Lhucks, so are you saying take Brees/Brady early?

Also, just a little note on Rivers, I expect his numbers to be about the same, why you ask? The right side of the offensive line cannot run block, they flat out stink at it. SD is a passing team now, make no mistakes about it.

Do non-highlighted players mean draft at ADP? to me Rodgers and McNabb (even with vick) seem like good values at their ADP

 

[twistd]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Interesting commentary, much of it I don't agree with, but makes for good reading. Palmer will never make it through the season. The line is a train wreck. They have no credible running game because of the line problems, so Palmer will spend the season running for his life. Schaub has not played more than 12 games in his first two seasons as a starter. If he can stay healthy he could be a monster, but so far he hasn't. Cutler will have a very solid season. He demonstrated that last week against the Giants. Cutler is good enough to make an average receiving core look pretty good. Hasselbeck has a weak line, a weak running game, and questionable receivers behind Housh. Good luck with that.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

 

[sho nuff]

A general question: It would be helpful to know what kind of scoring system these recommendations are based on. The points for passing TDs vs rushing TDs and how passing yards are scored vs rushing yards can, in some cases, dramatically skew scoring positively for the more mobile QBs. Garrard is a great example whose contribution with some rushing yards and TDs makes him a far more valuable player in some leagues.

A specific question: Are you sour on Rivers because you see a regression in his numbers or is it based more on cost of where you likely have to draft him to get him this year?

Edit to add: Never mind the specific question. I think I found your answer.

Rivers is the most overrated QB in the NFL...has been for some time.

He is sour on Rivers because of his bias towards Pac 10/West coasters (yes, Rivers is there now).To call the guy overrated in the NFL is laughable given the guy was left out of the pro bowl for Favre and was a much better QB on the season.

The guy threw for 4000 yards, 34 TDs, and only 11 INTs last year and somehow he is overrated?

I think his numbers stay about the same this year...maybe a few less TDs.

But somewhere around 4000 and 30 TDs.

If thats overrated for where he will be drafted...I don't think so.

 

[Balance]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

Manning is a steal this year imo.

 

[puckalicious]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

Agreed. Manning's downside is the ceiling for Schaub/Palmer. Manning is going towards the end of round 2 and could easily finish QB1 ahead of Brady/Brees. He is a much better draft value now than he's ever been. I'm really liking the possibility of getting Moss/Manning/Kevin Smith in the first 3 rounds.

 

[steelcityman]

why is Rivers red? He plays Oak, Den and KC a combined 6 times. Thats good eatin right there.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

Agreed. Manning's downside is the ceiling for Schaub/Palmer. Manning is going towards the end of round 2 and could easily finish QB1 ahead of Brady/Brees. He is a much better draft value now than he's ever been. I'm really liking the possibility of getting Moss/Manning/Kevin Smith in the first 3 rounds.

kevin smith? nah

 

[puckalicious]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

Agreed. Manning's downside is the ceiling for Schaub/Palmer. Manning is going towards the end of round 2 and could easily finish QB1 ahead of Brady/Brees. He is a much better draft value now than he's ever been. I'm really liking the possibility of getting Moss/Manning/Kevin Smith in the first 3 rounds.

kevin smith? nah

Fine, Grant then. Whatever.

 

[The Ref]

One guy I was keen on getting your opinion on was Carson Palmer. It's been a while since Palmer was a top 5 QB. What outlook do you have for him this year? I see you are targetting him. Are you not worried about the Bengals Oline?

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

See the thing is....it's hasn't been that long since Palmer was a top 5 QB....but its a perception out there which is why Palmer is barely being drafted as a starting QB....yet he is only 2 years removed from consecutive top 5 seasons....one of which was the No.1 QB in FF. I think Palmer is a fantastic value at his ADP

I'll be here all week fellas...just wait til you see my RB value plays.

Yeah, but my draft is THIS weekend.

 

[LHUCKS]

why is Rivers red? He plays Oak, Den and KC a combined 6 times. Thats good eatin right there.

As mentioned earlier, an improved running game and defense will hold back Rivers' numbers this year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

why is Rivers red? He plays Oak, Den and KC a combined 6 times. Thats good eatin right there.

As mentioned earlier, an improved running game and defense will hold back Rivers' numbers this year.

defense maybe, but that running game is going to be about the same, the right side cannot run block. starting a rookie and the RT shouldnt be starting for any team.

 

[LHUCKS]

Hey Lhucks, so are you saying take Brees/Brady early?

Yes particularly after the top 6/7 RBs are off the board...but in leagues where QBs typically go late I prefer to hold off...the Brady/Brees early strategy is really dependendent on league specifics...I tend to stay away from QBs early in big leagues as well.

Also, just a little note on Rivers, I expect his numbers to be about the same, why you ask? The right side of the offensive line cannot run block, they flat out stink at it. SD is a passing team now, make no mistakes about it.

The defense improving is a bigger concern for Rivers numbers than the run blocking. As I'm sure you know SD was almost always playing from behind last year...a fantasy players dream for inflated stats.

Do non-highlighted players mean draft at ADP? to me Rodgers and McNabb (even with vick) seem like good values at their ADP

Yes, and I agree tha Rodgers and McNabb are decent value. I actually drafted McNabb in Survivor 6.

 

[Tanner9919]

don't know what scoring system you're using.but if Aaron Rodgers is going at pick #31, he represents GREAT VALUE!

I know it's just preseason and all, but from the looks of it, he has been lights-out thus far.he looks very sharp, and very polished..just a hunch here, but he might be the most prolific passer in the NFL this season..any chance of changing Rodgers to Green color as someone to target?

 

[LHUCKS]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

You mean where he got Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit...this year he does draw the NFC West but those defenses will be improved almost across the board, something which a lot of people aren't catching this year...still overall weak, but the division wont be quite the shootout it once was. There are three reasons for not liking Manning at his ADP. First his offensive line has slowly eroded, they aren't the top notch unit they once were. Second, the loss of an elite Marvin Harrison cannot be understated...you can almost see a direct correlation between the decline of Peyton's numbers and the decline of Harrison's elite ability. Lastly and most importantly, I have Manning's numbers as very comparable to the next six guys in my rankings...yes he is less risky than some of them, but the risk difference doesn't justify the difference in ADP, thus he becomes a do not draft. Also, there is actually less risk if you compare Manning to a QBBC approach with a Schaub/Palmer vs. Manning for example. It is not even close IMHO.Stay away from Manning this year at his ADP...draft a valuable WR or RB where he is going.

 

[LHUCKS]

don't know what scoring system you're using.but if Aaron Rodgers is going at pick #31, he represents GREAT VALUE!

I know it's just preseason and all, but from the looks of it, he has been lights-out thus far.he looks very sharp, and very polished..just a hunch here, but he might be the most prolific passer in the NFL this season..any chance of changing Rodgers to Green color as someone to target?

As mentioned earlier I like him at his ADP, it's just tough for me to Go QB early when I can get Shaub/Palmer late who will put up comparable numbers from a PPG perspective. One thing I DESPISE about Rodgers...his playoff schedule is nasty.

 

[LHUCKS]

One guy I was keen on getting your opinion on was Carson Palmer. It's been a while since Palmer was a top 5 QB. What outlook do you have for him this year? I see you are targetting him. Are you not worried about the Bengals Oline?

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

I think a lot of people are concerned about his elbow, but I'm not one of them. I have Palmer ranked 5th and at his ADP, he is a steal. Chad looks like the old Chad too and overall, his WRs are lights out. Palmer is being drafted as a mid 7th rounder on average. He might be the most undervalued player in drafts. I'm also with you on Shaun Hill. He has put up close to low end QB1 numbers when he has started and is being drafted as a QB3 in some leagues. I've seen Sanchez and Russell get drafted before Hill near the end of drafts. I'd rather shoot for upside late and Hill offers plenty of that.

 

[LHUCKS]

Schaub has not played more than 12 games in his first two seasons as a starter. If he can stay healthy he could be a monster, but so far he hasn't.

Schaub's injury risk has been overstated in fantasy circles IMHO. The guy missed games due to a viral infection and an MCL problem, neither of which are overly alarming. Clearly he's not Brett Favre, but his health risks are being overstated IMHO.

Cutler will have a very solid season. He demonstrated that last week against the Giants. Cutler is good enough to make an average receiving core look pretty good.

Cutler is on a team with a good defense and running game. His best WRs have never had a big season, or even a decent season for that matter. The guy is overrated this year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

You mean where he got Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit...this year he does draw the NFC West but those defenses will be improved almost across the board, something which a lot of people aren't catching this year...still overall weak, but the division wont be quite the shootout.There are three reasons for not liking Manning at his ADP. First his offensive line has slowly eroded, they aren't the top notch unit they once were. Second, the loss of an elite Marvin Harrison cannot be understated...you can almost see a direct correlation between the decline of Peyton's numbers and the decline of Harrison's elite ability. Lastly and most importantly, I have Manning's numbers as very comparable to the next six guys in my rankings...yes he is less risky than some of them, but the risk difference doesn't justify the difference in ADP, thus he becomes a do not draft. Also, there is actually less risk if you compare Manning to a QBBC approach with a Schaub/Palmer vs. Manning for example. It is not even close IMHO.Stay away from Manning this year at his ADP...draft a valuable WR or RB where he is going.

Manning's only bad game of the second half was in the wind at Cleveland. He threw for as many TDs against PIT as he did against CIN (3). He had more yards against Jacksonville (364) than Detroit (318) Your schedule argument is bunk.As far as Harrison goes, he missed many makeable catches last year, I actually think his absence is a plus, because Gonzalez converts a lot of targets that Harrison didn't last year. Manning had only one game below 20 FP from week 8-16 last year. He went for over 25 FP in 4 of those 9 games. How can you say Schaub/Palmer or any QBBC is less risky than that?ETA: Manning is a virtual lock for 30 passing TDs, 4K yards, and even a few 1 yard sneaks for good measure, not to mention 16 games played. That last one is important because what you give up in not taking a WR/RB in the third, you can partially make up by not having to scramble for a backup QB during the inevitable run. Just take Kerry Collins, who draws NE during Manning's bye week.

 

[LHUCKS]

Manning's only bad game of the second half was in the wind at Cleveland. He threw for as many TDs against PIT as he did against CIN (3). He had more yards against Jacksonville (364) than Detroit (318) Your schedule argument is bunk.

As far as Harrison goes, he missed many makeable catches last year, I actually think his absence is a plus, because Gonzalez converts a lot of targets that Harrison didn't last year.

Manning had only one game below 20 FP from week 8-16 last year. He went for over 25 FP in 4 of those 9 games. How can you say Schaub/Palmer or any QBBC is less risky than that?

Manning's game vs. Pittsburgh was probably one of the best games by any QB last year, there is no question he's an elite QB. From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Has thrown less than 30 TDs 7 of 11 years. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

IMHO, drafting a safe Manning is how you build a good, but not great fantasy team. Strike gold with Palmer/Schaub type late and you've got yourself one of the best teams in your league. Or even if you catch a sliding Rodgers/McNabb...all are better than nabbing Manning in the 2nd. Of the tight drafts I've seen this year, I almost always dislike the Manning teams...burning a second round pick on a QB that doesn't represent the VBD is a killer.

 

[puckalicious]

Manning's only bad game of the second half was in the wind at Cleveland. He threw for as many TDs against PIT as he did against CIN (3). He had more yards against Jacksonville (364) than Detroit (318) Your schedule argument is bunk.

As far as Harrison goes, he missed many makeable catches last year, I actually think his absence is a plus, because Gonzalez converts a lot of targets that Harrison didn't last year.

Manning had only one game below 20 FP from week 8-16 last year. He went for over 25 FP in 4 of those 9 games. How can you say Schaub/Palmer or any QBBC is less risky than that?

Manning's game vs. Pittsburgh was probably one of the best games by any QB last year, there is no question he's an elite QB. From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

IMHO, drafting a safe Manning is how you build a good, but not great fantasy team. Strike gold with Palmer/Schaub type late and you've got yourself one of the best teams in your league. Or even if you catch a sliding Rodgers/McNabb...all are better than nabbing Manning in the 2nd. Of the tight drafts I've seen this year, I almost always dislike the Manning teams...burning a second round pick on a QB that doesn't represent the VBD is a killer.

Then just say no QB is worth taking in the 1st/2nd rounds.... Brees/Brady are even worse from a VBD perspective in the 1st round. You can get Manning in the 2nd round who is just as likely to put up "Brady" numbers as Palmer/Schaub are likely to put up "Manning" numbers. Well your version of Manning numbers anyway.That being said, I am starting to like Rodgers in the 3rd more than Manning in the 2nd.