LHUCKS Draft Strategy 2009 (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Then just say no QB is worth taking in the 1st/2nd rounds.... Brees/Brady are even worse from a VBD perspective in the 1st round.

I disagree, I think Brady and Brees have the potential to put up absurd numbers, which is why they are value plays. Particularly Brady.

You can get Manning in the 2nd round who is just as likely to put up "Brady" numbers as Palmer/Schaub are likely to put up "Manning" numbers.

And this is where we definitely disagree, and historical data is more than on my side here.

 

[puckalicious]

Then just say no QB is worth taking in the 1st/2nd rounds.... Brees/Brady are even worse from a VBD perspective in the 1st round.

I disagree, I think Brady and Brees have the potential to put up absurd numbers, which is why they are value plays. Particularly Brady.

You can get Manning in the 2nd round who is just as likely to put up "Brady" numbers as Palmer/Schaub are likely to put up "Manning" numbers.

And this is where we definitely disagree, and historical data is more than on my side here.

Why doesn't Manning have that potential? He has done it before.5069/34 Brees4806/50 Brady4557/49 ManningThese are all pretty darn absurd, but Manning and Brady scored a lot more fantasy points than Brees in their respective career years. 10+ more TDs is worth a bit more than 200-300 more yards in typical scoring formats.Historical data is on nobody's side. It is what it is. Everything appears to repeat what happened in the past... until it doesn't. There is no more predictive value in that than an educated guess. In the end we are all just guessing and making claims like this only lessen your argument.

 

[Justloveit]

Then just say no QB is worth taking in the 1st/2nd rounds.... Brees/Brady are even worse from a VBD perspective in the 1st round.

I disagree, I think Brady and Brees have the potential to put up absurd numbers, which is why they are value plays. Particularly Brady.

You can get Manning in the 2nd round who is just as likely to put up "Brady" numbers as Palmer/Schaub are likely to put up "Manning" numbers.

And this is where we definitely disagree, and historical data is more than on my side here.

Why doesn't Manning have that potential? He has done it before.5069/34 Brees4806/50 Brady4557/49 ManningThese are all pretty darn absurd, but Manning and Brady scored a lot more fantasy points than Brees in their respective career years. 10+ more TDs is worth a bit more than 200-300 more yards in typical scoring formats.Historical data is on nobody's side. It is what it is. Everything appears to repeat what happened in the past... until it doesn't. There is no more predictive value in that than an educated guess. In the end we are all just guessing and making claims like this only lessen your argument.

The team Manning put those numbers up with is vastly different to his current team. The same can't be said for Brees or Brady.

 

[LHUCKS]

Then just say no QB is worth taking in the 1st/2nd rounds.... Brees/Brady are even worse from a VBD perspective in the 1st round.

I disagree, I think Brady and Brees have the potential to put up absurd numbers, which is why they are value plays. Particularly Brady.

You can get Manning in the 2nd round who is just as likely to put up "Brady" numbers as Palmer/Schaub are likely to put up "Manning" numbers.

And this is where we definitely disagree, and historical data is more than on my side here.

Why doesn't Manning have that potential? He has done it before.5069/34 Brees4806/50 Brady4557/49 ManningThese are all pretty darn absurd, but Manning and Brady scored a lot more fantasy points than Brees in their respective career years. 10+ more TDs is worth a bit more than 200-300 more yards in typical scoring formats.Historical data is on nobody's side. It is what it is. Everything appears to repeat what happened in the past... until it doesn't. There is no more predictive value in that than an educated guess. In the end we are all just guessing and making claims like this only lessen your argument.

The team Manning put those numbers up with is vastly different to his current team. The same can't be said for Brees or Brady.

 

[Justloveit]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

 

[Kuz]

A general question: It would be helpful to know what kind of scoring system these recommendations are based on. The points for passing TDs vs rushing TDs and how passing yards are scored vs rushing yards can, in some cases, dramatically skew scoring positively for the more mobile QBs. Garrard is a great example whose contribution with some rushing yards and TDs makes him a far more valuable player in some leagues.

A specific question: Are you sour on Rivers because you see a regression in his numbers or is it based more on cost of where you likely have to draft him to get him this year?

Edit to add: Never mind the specific question. I think I found your answer.

Rivers is the most overrated QB in the NFL...has been for some time.

He is sour on Rivers because of his bias towards Pac 10/West coasters (yes, Rivers is there now).To call the guy overrated in the NFL is laughable given the guy was left out of the pro bowl for Favre and was a much better QB on the season.

The guy threw for 4000 yards, 34 TDs, and only 11 INTs last year and somehow he is overrated?

I think his numbers stay about the same this year...maybe a few less TDs.

But somewhere around 4000 and 30 TDs.

If thats overrated for where he will be drafted...I don't think so.

I think Rivers is one of the most underrated QB's than overrated..

 

[LHUCKS]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

 

[Justloveit]

A general question: It would be helpful to know what kind of scoring system these recommendations are based on. The points for passing TDs vs rushing TDs and how passing yards are scored vs rushing yards can, in some cases, dramatically skew scoring positively for the more mobile QBs. Garrard is a great example whose contribution with some rushing yards and TDs makes him a far more valuable player in some leagues.

A specific question: Are you sour on Rivers because you see a regression in his numbers or is it based more on cost of where you likely have to draft him to get him this year?

Edit to add: Never mind the specific question. I think I found your answer.

Rivers is the most overrated QB in the NFL...has been for some time.

He is sour on Rivers because of his bias towards Pac 10/West coasters (yes, Rivers is there now).To call the guy overrated in the NFL is laughable given the guy was left out of the pro bowl for Favre and was a much better QB on the season.

The guy threw for 4000 yards, 34 TDs, and only 11 INTs last year and somehow he is overrated?

I think his numbers stay about the same this year...maybe a few less TDs.

But somewhere around 4000 and 30 TDs.

If thats overrated for where he will be drafted...I don't think so.

I think Rivers is one of the most underrated QB's than overrated..

Rivers over achieved last year. That's why he is overrated this year.

 

[Buffaloes]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

Almost an anomaly? Ok.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Where are these ADPs coming from?

I grabbed Warner at 60 and Big Ben at 108 and thought that was pretty solid (not spectacular) value. Where is Warner going 36?

 

[Justloveit]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

Almost an anomaly? Ok.

Think about the yardage and pass attempts. To throw the ball 635 times and "only" score 34 times is quite unusual I would think. To put that into perspective, Brady threw the ball 578 times for his 50TD's. Brady is a better QB, i realise that, but he also had his big vertical threat for 16 games. Brees did not.

 

[Buffaloes]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

Almost an anomaly? Ok.

Think about the yardage and pass attempts. To throw the ball 635 times and "only" score 34 times is quite unusual I would think. To put that into perspective, Brady threw the ball 578 times for his 50TD's. Brady is a better QB, i realise that, but he also had his big vertical threat for 16 games. Brees did not.

I'm just trying to figure out "almost an anomaly." Seems it's an anomaly or it's not.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

How so? He had 6 fewer the year before. It was his most TDs in a year but was an anomaly (on the low side)? However, Manning threw for 27 which is under his average and you believe his chances aren't good for 30 this year.?Baffling.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Think about the yardage and pass attempts. To throw the ball 635 times and "only" score 34 times is quite unusual I would think. To put that into perspective, Brady threw the ball 578 times for his 50TD's. Brady is a better QB, i realise that, but he also had his big vertical threat for 16 games. Brees did not.

He had 17 more attempts in 07 than 08 with 6 fewer TDs.

 

[LHUCKS]

Where are these ADPs coming from?

FBG...

 

[Avery]

A general question: It would be helpful to know what kind of scoring system these recommendations are based on. The points for passing TDs vs rushing TDs and how passing yards are scored vs rushing yards can, in some cases, dramatically skew scoring positively for the more mobile QBs. Garrard is a great example whose contribution with some rushing yards and TDs makes him a far more valuable player in some leagues.

A specific question: Are you sour on Rivers because you see a regression in his numbers or is it based more on cost of where you likely have to draft him to get him this year?

Edit to add: Never mind the specific question. I think I found your answer.

Rivers is the most overrated QB in the NFL...has been for some time.

He is sour on Rivers because of his bias towards Pac 10/West coasters (yes, Rivers is there now).To call the guy overrated in the NFL is laughable given the guy was left out of the pro bowl for Favre and was a much better QB on the season.

The guy threw for 4000 yards, 34 TDs, and only 11 INTs last year and somehow he is overrated?

I think his numbers stay about the same this year...maybe a few less TDs.

But somewhere around 4000 and 30 TDs.

If thats overrated for where he will be drafted...I don't think so.

I think Rivers is one of the most underrated QB's than overrated..

Rivers over achieved last year. That's why he is overrated this year.

You say Rivers overachieved like that's fact.Obviously, if you think that then yes, he is overrated.

However, if you think that last year is Rivers coming into his own as a top QB and a sign that the Chargers are going to continue to be more pass oriented then no, he is (at least) rated appropriately.

 

[switz]

Below is the QB ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away

I never draft the players in red unless they have an uncharacteristic slide. If players are not highlighted that means I'd consider drafting them but wouldn't necessarily target them.

15) Tom Brady NE

22) Peyton Manning

You know you are totally trolling with that.Brady coming off an injury is your #2 QB, and Green - go get 'em. While Peyton is a DON NOT DRAFT? That's ridiculous, and just trolling. Go back to the FFA where you belong.

 

[switz]

From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Has thrown less than 30 TDs 7 of 11 years. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

Oh give me a break!Brady's average TDs per season is 25. Sure he threw 50 with Moss and Welker, but Manning threw 49 (in fewer games), it didn't mean Manning was going to maintain that pace just because he had the same players. Brady has thrown more than 28 TDs ONCE in his career... and then he had his knee blown to pieces and has looked terrible under pressure in the preseason. Brady has also thrown over 4,000 yards only twice in his entire career.

Drew Brees as well has thrown more than 28 TDs ONCE in his career. That was last season and it took him a 635 pass attempts to do it. You say that's an anomaly, BUT the year prior he had MORE attempts, and LESS TDs. At least with Brees you know he's going to be around 4,400 yards... but he's unlikely to throw 30 TDs.

On the other hand, Manning has thrown over 30 TDs four different times, and over 4,000 yards all but two seasons. He is the surest thing at QB that there is. He's guaranteed to have 530 plus pass attempts, and this year he doesn't have Harrison dogging it on the field. Last season was his worst in like 7 years. And he still was a top QB.

Matt Schaub has never thrown 20 TDs. Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

Your reasoning is rank.

 

[puckalicious]

Then just say no QB is worth taking in the 1st/2nd rounds.... Brees/Brady are even worse from a VBD perspective in the 1st round.

I disagree, I think Brady and Brees have the potential to put up absurd numbers, which is why they are value plays. Particularly Brady.

You can get Manning in the 2nd round who is just as likely to put up "Brady" numbers as Palmer/Schaub are likely to put up "Manning" numbers.

And this is where we definitely disagree, and historical data is more than on my side here.

Why doesn't Manning have that potential? He has done it before.5069/34 Brees

4806/50 Brady

4557/49 Manning

These are all pretty darn absurd, but Manning and Brady scored a lot more fantasy points than Brees in their respective career years. 10+ more TDs is worth a bit more than 200-300 more yards in typical scoring formats.

Historical data is on nobody's side. It is what it is. Everything appears to repeat what happened in the past... until it doesn't. There is no more predictive value in that than an educated guess. In the end we are all just guessing and making claims like this only lessen your argument.

The team Manning put those numbers up with is vastly different to his current team. The same can't be said for Brees or Brady.

Vastly different? It's different, I'll give you that. But I'm pretty sure they're running the same basic system?

 

[switz]

The team Manning put those numbers up with is vastly different to his current team. The same can't be said for Brees or Brady.

Vastly different? It's different, I'll give you that. But I'm pretty sure they're running the same basic system?

The only real difference is there is no Stokley on this team. But Stokley only accounted for 6 of the 49 TDs. Harrison had 15, Wayne had 12. That was Wayne's breakout year, and he's been a 1,000 yard receiver ever since. They also had Edgerrin instead of Addai and Brown, but Edge didn't catch a single TD. Dallas Clark was just coming on, in his second season, he's vastly improved from back then.It's a different team, but if people really think Harrison makes that big of a difference all by himself, they're in for a surprise. Harrison was outplayed by Gonzales last year, and Gonzales wasn't even a starter. Clark basically took Harrison's role of being Manning's safety valve. Wayne was the big play receiver, as Harrison was in '04. The two RB system outperformed Edge's stats from '04 in the receiving department.

Being different doesn't automatically make it worse.

As for Brees, Colston and Moore are both hurt, who knows when they'll play... not sure you can write down Brees as being in the same situation as last year.

Brady is playing after an injury for the first time in his career. He may have the same WRs (well, Welker and Moss) but that's not the same situation.

 

[the spanker]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

LHUCKS, my draft is tomorrow. Is it possible to get your other rankings up today?

 

[Tau837]

Schaub has not played more than 12 games in his first two seasons as a starter. If he can stay healthy he could be a monster, but so far he hasn't.

Schaub's injury risk has been overstated in fantasy circles IMHO. The guy missed games due to a viral infection and an MCL problem, neither of which are overly alarming. Clearly he's not Brett Favre, but his health risks are being overstated IMHO.

Seems a bit odd to take this stance on Schaub but cite Warner as an injury risk. Warner hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2005, and IIRC the games he missed at the end of the season were due to an MCL issue.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

X

I'll never understand why so many get trapped into looking at NFL talent from a fantasy football perspective.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Also, avoiding Pennington as the 23rd QB off of the board is just absurd. You may not like his arm strength or his injury history but you can grab him late and possibly have a 3500/18 guy for peanuts.

 

[davearm]

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:

- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

As to the last question, I'd say it's probably because Palmer's health is still a pretty big "if". That elbow never was truly fixed, and presumably could be reaggravated at any time.I'd agree that Palmer will produce good to very good numbers if his elbow remains strong... but that's definitely a big concern IMO and a legit reason to move him down the board.

 

[Peyton Marino]

The only real difference is there is no Stokley on this team. But Stokley only accounted for 6 of the 49 TDs. Harrison had 15, Wayne had 12. That was Wayne's breakout year, and he's been a 1,000 yard receiver ever since. They also had Edgerrin instead of Addai and Brown, but Edge didn't catch a single TD. Dallas Clark was just coming on, in his second season, he's vastly improved from back then.It's a different team, but if people really think Harrison makes that big of a difference all by himself, they're in for a surprise. Harrison was outplayed by Gonzales last year, and Gonzales wasn't even a starter. Clark basically took Harrison's role of being Manning's safety valve. Wayne was the big play receiver, as Harrison was in '04. The two RB system outperformed Edge's stats from '04 in the receiving department.

Wayne & Harrison >>> Wayne & GonzalezSure Gonzalez may have looked better than a past his prime Harrison last year. Manning had his breakout season during Harrison's prime, though. You say Clark took over Harrison's spot as safety valve last season? Then what was the TE doing during the year when Harrison was routinely catching 1,500 yards? Probably adding another option. Any way you look at it, this team is quite different without the Harrison of old.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

A lot of tools in this thread because LHUCKS started it. Wish you guys would save that for the FFA and keep good discussion here. I agree with most of his QB rankings. Rivers is the one I disagree with this most but at least LHUCKS backed up his opinion.

 

[LHUCKS]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

LHUCKS, my draft is tomorrow. Is it possible to get your other rankings up today?

Remember, these aren't my rankings. This is my draft strategy given a consensus ADP. I might be able to get RBs out today, but no promises...work has been crazy.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

How so? He had 6 fewer the year before. It was his most TDs in a year but was an anomaly (on the low side)? However, Manning threw for 27 which is under his average and you believe his chances aren't good for 30 this year.?Baffling.

 

[LHUCKS]

From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Has thrown less than 30 TDs 7 of 11 years. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

Oh give me a break!Brady's average TDs per season is 25.

What did he average with Moss in the lineup? Next.

 

[LHUCKS]

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:

- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

As to the last question, I'd say it's probably because Palmer's health is still a pretty big "if". That elbow never was truly fixed, and presumably could be reaggravated at any time.I'd agree that Palmer will produce good to very good numbers if his elbow remains strong... but that's definitely a big concern IMO and a legit reason to move him down the board.

Fair enough. I don't know how many quotes we need to have before we believe the elbow is fine, but I can at least see the argument. Perfect for us, that's why his ADP is so juicy I guess. Thank you sir, may I have another.

 

[LHUCKS]

Also, avoiding Pennington as the 23rd QB off of the board is just absurd. You may not like his arm strength or his injury history but you can grab him late and possibly have a 3500/18 guy for peanuts.

Not enough upside...don't want him on any of my teams.

 

[LHUCKS]

On the other hand, Manning has thrown over 30 TDs four different times, and over 4,000 yards all but two seasons. He is the surest thing at QB that there is. He's guaranteed to have 530 plus pass attempts, and this year he doesn't have Harrison dogging it on the field. Last season was his worst in like 7 years. And he still was a top QB.

Nobody is saying Manning isn't a great QB....we're saying that this year a 4000 yard, 30TD QB isn't worth a second round pick in most formats. This is an ADP discussion. The argument is that Manning doesn't have the upside to justify his ADP. This is why I project ranges and not static projection values.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Has thrown less than 30 TDs 7 of 11 years. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

Oh give me a break!Brady's average TDs per season is 25. Sure he threw 50 with Moss and Welker, but Manning threw 49 (in fewer games), it didn't mean Manning was going to maintain that pace just because he had the same players. Brady has thrown more than 28 TDs ONCE in his career... and then he had his knee blown to pieces and has looked terrible under pressure in the preseason. Brady has also thrown over 4,000 yards only twice in his entire career.

Drew Brees as well has thrown more than 28 TDs ONCE in his career. That was last season and it took him a 635 pass attempts to do it. You say that's an anomaly, BUT the year prior he had MORE attempts, and LESS TDs. At least with Brees you know he's going to be around 4,400 yards... but he's unlikely to throw 30 TDs.

On the other hand, Manning has thrown over 30 TDs four different times, and over 4,000 yards all but two seasons. He is the surest thing at QB that there is. He's guaranteed to have 530 plus pass attempts, and this year he doesn't have Harrison dogging it on the field. Last season was his worst in like 7 years. And he still was a top QB.

Matt Schaub has never thrown 20 TDs. Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

Your reasoning is rank.

IMO, Manning and Brady both have high floors and high ceilings, but Brady is more likely to hit his ceiling. Wayne and Clark are money, but Gonzo is no sure thing and they do not have a reliable WR3. Brady has averaged 25 TDs... but the only year he had Moss and Welker he doubled that average. Everybody expects a regression, but he's a mortal lock for 30 TDs and it is not hard at all to see 36-40. His injury is a concern, but he's plenty good enough to beat the pressure a la Warner.

Palmer is an elite QB talent with 3 strong WRs and will see plenty of attempts. He's certainly not a totally safe bet with his elbow concerns and a bad Oline, but he is a STEAL outside of the top 10 QBs.

Schaub has injury concerns, but he was top 5 in ppg last year.

Palmer and Schaub have more risk than Manning, but their ceilings are probably 80-85% of Manning's, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either one score the same as Manning. That you can get them SO MUCH later is a perfectly legit reason to pass on Manning.

You make it sound like this reasoning is absurd, and THAT is absurd. It's not like he's predicting crazy numbers for a 2nd year player that has 6 part time games under his belt, numbers that have historically never been achieved by anybody.

 

[LHUCKS]

Matt Schaub has never thrown 20 TDs. Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

Who can tell me what is misleading about these two statements? Cmon Switz, you're better than that.

 

[Arizona Ron]

oops, good catch!

Never saw this catching on the way it did.

 

[switz]

Matt Schaub has never thrown 20 TDs. Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

Who can tell me what is misleading about these two statements? Cmon Switz, you're better than that.

You can discount that because the players were injured, but a fact is a fact, and Schaub is looking like a guy who is going to be injured every year, and Palmer hasn't been the same for years since his 30 TD season. You talk about adding risk into your tiers, but IMO with these two players you have completely ignored the risk. I have Palmer on my roster, I wish he wasn't a risk, but I'm not going to bury my head in the sand.

 

[switz]

The only real difference is there is no Stokley on this team. But Stokley only accounted for 6 of the 49 TDs. Harrison had 15, Wayne had 12. That was Wayne's breakout year, and he's been a 1,000 yard receiver ever since. They also had Edgerrin instead of Addai and Brown, but Edge didn't catch a single TD. Dallas Clark was just coming on, in his second season, he's vastly improved from back then.

It's a different team, but if people really think Harrison makes that big of a difference all by himself, they're in for a surprise. Harrison was outplayed by Gonzales last year, and Gonzales wasn't even a starter. Clark basically took Harrison's role of being Manning's safety valve. Wayne was the big play receiver, as Harrison was in '04. The two RB system outperformed Edge's stats from '04 in the receiving department.

Wayne & Harrison >>> Wayne & GonzalezSure Gonzalez may have looked better than a past his prime Harrison last year. Manning had his breakout season during Harrison's prime, though. You say Clark took over Harrison's spot as safety valve last season? Then what was the TE doing during the year when Harrison was routinely catching 1,500 yards? Probably adding another option. Any way you look at it, this team is quite different without the Harrison of old.

I agree with different, but I don't agree with the implication of worseWayne '09 > Harrison '04 (Wayne is a much bigger deep threat and has more speed than Harrison, and Harrison was already on the decline in '04)

Gonzales '09 <> Wayne '04 (Gonzales is really coming on, runs great routes, something Wayne took longer to learn)

Garcon '09 ? Stokley '04 (Stokley is a journeyman, Garcon looks like he could be good)

Clark '09 > Clark '04 (Clark is vastly improved from his second year)

Addai/Brown '09 <> Edge '04 (As receivers, Brown and Addai are better than Edge, but as runner, not so much)

In regards to the "Tools because it's an LHUCKS thread" - not the case with me, I just think saying Manning is a DO NOT TOUCH player is really ridiculous. With as many ?'s about the RBs after the top-5 this year, Manning is a smart second round pick, especially since in years past he's gone at the end of the first, early second. His ADP is actually lower than it's been in a long time.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Manning is a safe pick, as he consistently puts up similar numbers, but he will go in a spot where you will to sacrifice taking a potentially really good RB or WR. If you can snag a sleeper RB or WR later on to compensate for that, then Manning is a good pick, but if not, taking a QB who will likely be really good, but not great, will ultimately hurt your team as a whole.

 

[switz]

Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

X

I'll never understand why so many get trapped into looking at NFL talent from a fantasy football perspective.

I wasn't referring to talent, I was referring to production. Which IIRC is what gets you points in FF. Not sure if you were being snarky with me or not, but losing Housh is big. I like OC and Henry, but they have to show it on the field. OC hasn't been consistent in years, and Henry hasn't yet shown his head is on straight.

 

[the spanker]

Furthermore, Brees has the potential to do even greater than he did last yr. Having his #1 WR available for potentially an extra 5 games. Having another big play threat possibly in Meachem. Brees could easily go close to 40TDs this year.

Correct, Brees' TD total was almost an anomaly (on the low side) last year.

LHUCKS, my draft is tomorrow. Is it possible to get your other rankings up today?

Remember, these aren't my rankings. This is my draft strategy given a consensus ADP. I might be able to get RBs out today, but no promises...work has been crazy.

Appreciate any thing you can do to make that happen.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

X

I'll never understand why so many get trapped into looking at NFL talent from a fantasy football perspective.

I wasn't referring to talent, I was referring to production. Which IIRC is what gets you points in FF. Not sure if you were being snarky with me or not, but losing Housh is big. I like OC and Henry, but they have to show it on the field. OC hasn't been consistent in years, and Henry hasn't yet shown his head is on straight.

Sure, production is what earns fantasy points, but talent is what leads to production in the first place. I would argue that the number one and two reasons that Housh was so productive in Cincy was 1. Chad's ability to take up the coverage focus and 2. Having Palmer at QB. Now, there is no arguing that TJ is a talented WR, and that he was a sure bet for 100 catches, 1,000 yards and ~10 TDs. However, in my opinion his talent and production can be and has been replaced.To me, TJ was a solid talent in two areas: possession receiving and red zone receiving. He was Palmer's safety valve, and he represented a big target for Palmer when they got close to the goal line. Now, I think they've got a fine replacement for TJ's possession receiving in Coles. Is Coles as talented as TJ? Maybe, maybe not. I'd say no, but it's close. The biggest addition, which really isn't an addition at all, is having Henry there for (fingers crossed) an entire 16 game season. There's no doubt in my mind that Henry is a better red zone target than TJ. In fact, I'd argue that Henry is one of the best red zone targets in the league. That's if he can stay on the field.

In summary, I don't think the Bengals really lost much by letting TJ Houshmandzadeh go. He always struck me as being a solid talent who benefitted from his situation, and was ultimately replaceable. By contrast, I think the Bengals may have gained something huge in the possibility of having Henry for an entire season. I wouldn't really worry about Palmer's receiving options too much. If I were a Palmer owner, I'd be much more worried about the line.

 

[msommer]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

Don't forget Jeff Saturday, he was hurtin' too

 

[switz]

Wondering why you're down on Manning this year? Relatively easy schedule, easier than last year, and Anthony Gonzales is improving each year. Thoughts?

I don't believe the last two years have been a fluke. He's averaged 4000/29 over that span...I can get the exact same numbers from Schaub/Palmer 5 rounds later. I'd much rather have a top flight WR/RB where Manning is going.(in most leagues) Not to mention there is some risk with a new coaching regime.Next.

Manning was still hurting in the first half of the season in 08, check out his 2nd half #s for the "real" Manning.

Don't forget Jeff Saturday, he was hurtin' too

I didn't even notice this at first... LHUCKS anti-Manning bias is laughable, why ignore three years ago when he threw for 31 TDs and 4400 yards? Or why ignore than 2 of the last three years he threw for 31 TDs, and inflate last year where WHILE INJURED he threw 27 (FYI more than Schaub EVER has, and more than Palmer has the last two years - oh wait am I being disingenuous by ignoring Palmer was hurt?)I get the whole "drafting for value" bit... but here's the problem... Manning is available in late Round 2 to late Round 3, he's a much better value there than ANY RB, and any WR outside of Boldin and Bowe IMO.

Palmer and Schaub are going in 6th and 7th round, but so are Ray Rice, Jamal Lewis, Felix Jones - which aren't a big drop off from Jacobs, R. Brown, Bush, PThomas, etc...

My point is, there's more value at RB in the draft than there is at QB, and after the top-4,5 QBs the rest are HUGE risks

 

[cvnpoka]

Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

X

I'll never understand why so many get trapped into looking at NFL talent from a fantasy football perspective.

I wasn't referring to talent, I was referring to production. Which IIRC is what gets you points in FF. Not sure if you were being snarky with me or not, but losing Housh is big. I like OC and Henry, but they have to show it on the field. OC hasn't been consistent in years, and Henry hasn't yet shown his head is on straight.

oh pls, thats just flat out wrong. before last yr he had 3 fantastic years in a row. 1440, 1369, 1432 yards and 8, 7, 9 tds. hes had one crap year and it was last yr and he may be washed up so you can harp on that but dont just make up dumb sht.they lost housh but you act like he hasnt been replaced. coles is a very good reciever in the same mold as housh. i don think its unrealistic to expect 85-90% of housh production from coles. now add chris henrys ability and its arguably a better wr core than in years past.

 

[switz]

Carson Palmer has only once thrown 30 TDs, and lost his best receiver in the offseason.

X

I'll never understand why so many get trapped into looking at NFL talent from a fantasy football perspective.

I wasn't referring to talent, I was referring to production. Which IIRC is what gets you points in FF. Not sure if you were being snarky with me or not, but losing Housh is big. I like OC and Henry, but they have to show it on the field. OC hasn't been consistent in years, and Henry hasn't yet shown his head is on straight.

oh pls, thats just flat out wrong. before last yr he had 3 fantastic years in a row. 1440, 1369, 1432 yards and 8, 7, 9 tds. hes had one crap year and it was last yr and he may be washed up so you can harp on that but dont just make up dumb sht.they lost housh but you act like he hasnt been replaced. coles is a very good reciever in the same mold as housh. i don think its unrealistic to expect 85-90% of housh production from coles. now add chris henrys ability and its arguably a better wr core than in years past.

As for OC... I hadn't looked at stats, that has just been my impression from watching.Well, that's possible. We don't know yet though how Coles and Palmer will click... it hasn't looked good so far, and I never argued Henry wasn't good, just his attitude and behavior is unpredictable.

FYI, I'm not "making up stuff" and don't circumvent the obcenity blocker, it's there for a reason. Tone it down a little... we can be excellent to each other if we try, even if we disagree.

 

[cvnpoka]

i think your impression was wrong. and so do the numbers. the big huge irrefutable daunting numbers

 

[imagroid]

The defense improving is a bigger concern for Rivers numbers than the run blocking. As I'm sure you know SD was almost always playing from behind last year...a fantasy players dream for inflated stats.

Weren't they like 24th in pass attempts a game in 08?

 

[karmarooster]

look, everyone's getting their panties all twisted about peyton manning... and i agree that manning is an avoid. there's a simple reason: the o-line.so far in the preseason, manning has been sacked 4 times on 16 pass attempts. we all know the defense stays pretty vanilla in the preseason and doesn't send many blitz packages. tony ugoh has regressed and been put on the bench, leaving G charlie johnson as the starter at LT. expect manning's numbers to be more pedestrian like than manning-like. from football outsiders:

For the first time in years, this group was actually a weakness for the Colts.... Most troubling was the lack of development of Tony Ugoh. After a promising rookie year, Ugoh struggled to assert himself in the running game in his second season. His pass protection was still solid, but he may look better than he truly is because of Manning’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Charlie Johnson settled in at left guard, where he is quick enough, but not really strong enough to deal with big defensive tackles. The final starter is Rian Diem, who continues to man right tackle with competence but not dominance.

 

[LHUCKS]

look, everyone's getting their panties all twisted about peyton manning... and i agree that manning is an avoid. there's a simple reason: the o-line.so far in the preseason, manning has been sacked 4 times on 16 pass attempts. we all know the defense stays pretty vanilla in the preseason and doesn't send many blitz packages. tony ugoh has regressed and been put on the bench, leaving G charlie johnson as the starter at LT. expect manning's numbers to be more pedestrian like than manning-like. from football outsiders:

For the first time in years, this group was actually a weakness for the Colts.... Most troubling was the lack of development of Tony Ugoh. After a promising rookie year, Ugoh struggled to assert himself in the running game in his second season. His pass protection was still solid, but he may look better than he truly is because of Manning’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Charlie Johnson settled in at left guard, where he is quick enough, but not really strong enough to deal with big defensive tackles. The final starter is Rian Diem, who continues to man right tackle with competence but not dominance.

That line has slowly deteriorated...even Saturday isn't the player he once was.