LHUCKS Draft Strategy 2009 (1 Viewer)

[switz]

i think your impression was wrong. and so do the numbers. the big huge irrefutable daunting numbers

what's the point of your post, and the tone? I already said that was just my impression, obviously I was wrong. I think you already pointed that out clearly with the stats.

 

[puckalicious]

look, everyone's getting their panties all twisted about peyton manning... and i agree that manning is an avoid. there's a simple reason: the o-line.

so far in the preseason, manning has been sacked 4 times on 16 pass attempts. we all know the defense stays pretty vanilla in the preseason and doesn't send many blitz packages.

tony ugoh has regressed and been put on the bench, leaving G charlie johnson as the starter at LT. expect manning's numbers to be more pedestrian like than manning-like.

from football outsiders:

For the first time in years, this group was actually a weakness for the Colts....

Most troubling was the lack of development of Tony Ugoh. After a promising rookie year, Ugoh struggled to

assert himself in the running game in his second season. His pass protection was still solid, but he may look

better than he truly is because of Manning’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Charlie Johnson settled in at

left guard, where he is quick enough, but not really strong enough to deal with big defensive tackles. The final

starter is Rian Diem, who continues to man right tackle with competence but not dominance.

It's preseason.Do you honestly think Manning will get sacked 25% of the time??? That would be the all time never could be beat sack total for a season.

 

[karmarooster]

look, everyone's getting their panties all twisted about peyton manning... and i agree that manning is an avoid. there's a simple reason: the o-line.

so far in the preseason, manning has been sacked 4 times on 16 pass attempts. we all know the defense stays pretty vanilla in the preseason and doesn't send many blitz packages.

tony ugoh has regressed and been put on the bench, leaving G charlie johnson as the starter at LT. expect manning's numbers to be more pedestrian like than manning-like.

from football outsiders:

For the first time in years, this group was actually a weakness for the Colts....

Most troubling was the lack of development of Tony Ugoh. After a promising rookie year, Ugoh struggled to

assert himself in the running game in his second season. His pass protection was still solid, but he may look

better than he truly is because of Manning’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Charlie Johnson settled in at

left guard, where he is quick enough, but not really strong enough to deal with big defensive tackles. The final

starter is Rian Diem, who continues to man right tackle with competence but not dominance.

It's preseason.Do you honestly think Manning will get sacked 25% of the time??? That would be the all time never could be beat sack total for a season.

that's stupid. did i say that? no, i said they have given up 4 sacks. i'm sure the o-line just didn't feel like blocking because it's pre-season.

they have played poorly. they will continue to play poorly. i even included an excerpt from a very respected analysis.

go ahead and draft manning in the 2nd round, i'm not going to stop you.

that is all.

 

[LHUCKS]

Just noticed that not a single staffer listed Manning as overvalued...perfect.

 

[Northbound Train]

Manning's only bad game of the second half was in the wind at Cleveland. He threw for as many TDs against PIT as he did against CIN (3). He had more yards against Jacksonville (364) than Detroit (318) Your schedule argument is bunk.

As far as Harrison goes, he missed many makeable catches last year, I actually think his absence is a plus, because Gonzalez converts a lot of targets that Harrison didn't last year.

Manning had only one game below 20 FP from week 8-16 last year. He went for over 25 FP in 4 of those 9 games. How can you say Schaub/Palmer or any QBBC is less risky than that?

Manning's game vs. Pittsburgh was probably one of the best games by any QB last year, there is no question he's an elite QB. From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Has thrown less than 30 TDs 7 of 11 years. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

IMHO, drafting a safe Manning is how you build a good, but not great fantasy team. Strike gold with Palmer/Schaub type late and you've got yourself one of the best teams in your league. Or even if you catch a sliding Rodgers/McNabb...all are better than nabbing Manning in the 2nd. Of the tight drafts I've seen this year, I almost always dislike the Manning teams...burning a second round pick on a QB that doesn't represent the VBD is a killer.

Couldn't agree more...Manning is a "safe" pick but several guys that you've menioned could very well put up like numbers or better 3-5 rounds later. I'll let somebody else grab Peyton

 

[LHUCKS]

Manning's only bad game of the second half was in the wind at Cleveland. He threw for as many TDs against PIT as he did against CIN (3). He had more yards against Jacksonville (364) than Detroit (318) Your schedule argument is bunk.

As far as Harrison goes, he missed many makeable catches last year, I actually think his absence is a plus, because Gonzalez converts a lot of targets that Harrison didn't last year.

Manning had only one game below 20 FP from week 8-16 last year. He went for over 25 FP in 4 of those 9 games. How can you say Schaub/Palmer or any QBBC is less risky than that?

Manning's game vs. Pittsburgh was probably one of the best games by any QB last year, there is no question he's an elite QB. From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Has thrown less than 30 TDs 7 of 11 years. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

IMHO, drafting a safe Manning is how you build a good, but not great fantasy team. Strike gold with Palmer/Schaub type late and you've got yourself one of the best teams in your league. Or even if you catch a sliding Rodgers/McNabb...all are better than nabbing Manning in the 2nd. Of the tight drafts I've seen this year, I almost always dislike the Manning teams...burning a second round pick on a QB that doesn't represent the VBD is a killer.

Couldn't agree more...Manning is a "safe" pick but several guys that you've menioned could very well put up like numbers or better 3-5 rounds later. I'll let somebody else grab Peyton

It's amazing how hot and bothered the Manning backers get...guy is a one way ticket to fantasy mediocrity at his current ADP.

 

[cvnpoka]

i think your impression was wrong. and so do the numbers. the big huge irrefutable daunting numbers

what's the point of your post, and the tone? I already said that was just my impression, obviously I was wrong. I think you already pointed that out clearly with the stats.

i was out of line. sorry about that.

 

[AB in DC]

excellent post !!! I have been targeting both Schaub and Palmer in every single draft i've had.one thing I disagree is Rodgers vs. Rivers. I know the consensus is Rodgers > Rivers, but my gut tells me Rivers finishes ahead of Rodgers this year.

Don't listen to your gut...SD was playing from behind all year last year and had a hobbled running game.

And this is different from Green Bay how?

 

[LHUCKS]

excellent post !!! I have been targeting both Schaub and Palmer in every single draft i've had.one thing I disagree is Rodgers vs. Rivers. I know the consensus is Rodgers > Rivers, but my gut tells me Rivers finishes ahead of Rodgers this year.

Don't listen to your gut...SD was playing from behind all year last year and had a hobbled running game.

And this is different from Green Bay how?

Why are we comparing Green Bay and SD ...I like Rodgers at his ADP.

 

[barista]

I see you have J.Russel as green. What is your analysis for him? Also I agree with you on waiting for Schaub or Palmer although I would include Cutler along with those two. All three are dropping into round 6/7. I also like Garrard as a sneaky #2 QB that will outperform his ADP.

Not touching Cutler.- Chicago is simply not going to pass enough to justify his ADP- Doesn't have near the weapons he had in in Denver- Better running game and better defense = fewer pass attempts

Cutler is a good example of a QB I might TARGET in a point per completion league and likely AVOID in a 6pt TD non-PPC league.

 

[tim_whatley]

The team Manning put those numbers up with is vastly different to his current team. The same can't be said for Brees or Brady.

Vastly different? It's different, I'll give you that. But I'm pretty sure they're running the same basic system?

The only real difference is ....

his o-line. That's the main difference IMHO, and the reason he will not perform to the level of Brady/Brees.

 

[moleculo]

Manning's only bad game of the second half was in the wind at Cleveland. He threw for as many TDs against PIT as he did against CIN (3). He had more yards against Jacksonville (364) than Detroit (318) Your schedule argument is bunk.

As far as Harrison goes, he missed many makeable catches last year, I actually think his absence is a plus, because Gonzalez converts a lot of targets that Harrison didn't last year.

Manning had only one game below 20 FP from week 8-16 last year. He went for over 25 FP in 4 of those 9 games. How can you say Schaub/Palmer or any QBBC is less risky than that?

Manning's game vs. Pittsburgh was probably one of the best games by any QB last year, there is no question he's an elite QB. From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Has thrown less than 30 TDs 7 of 11 years. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

IMHO, drafting a safe Manning is how you build a good, but not great fantasy team. Strike gold with Palmer/Schaub type late and you've got yourself one of the best teams in your league. Or even if you catch a sliding Rodgers/McNabb...all are better than nabbing Manning in the 2nd. Of the tight drafts I've seen this year, I almost always dislike the Manning teams...burning a second round pick on a QB that doesn't represent the VBD is a killer.

Consider this: who is more likely to throw <20 TD passes - Palmer/Shaub/Rodgers/McNabb or Manning?There's nothing wrong with a 30 TD guy at all.

 

[bengalbuck]

One guy I was keen on getting your opinion on was Carson Palmer. It's been a while since Palmer was a top 5 QB. What outlook do you have for him this year? I see you are targetting him. Are you not worried about the Bengals Oline?

Not really worried about the Bengals line, he's always had a ####ty line, here's why I like him:- Palmer is quite simply one of the best passers in the game when healthy, ability is not a question

- Henry as the #3 WR is going to be huge, you give a QB like Palmer that kind of a #3 and it's trouble for defenses

- The Defense will suck, should be playing behind a lot and in some shootouts

- Has averaged over 4000 yards and 28 TDs in his last three healthy season...the better question is WTF are the "experts" doing ranking him so low??

I question many of your conclusions about the Bengals. First, in regards to the defense. Last year it ranked 12th. They haven't lost anyone from that 12th ranked D. Keith Rivers, Johnathan Joseph, Antwan Odom and Robert Geathers all missed a lot of time last year. All 4 are back healthy. They also added Rey Maulagua and Michael Johnson (very impressive so far) in the draft and Roy Williams/Tank Johnson in free agency. Not saying they'll be Baltimore/Pitt good, but the D will be very solid. I don't see a lot of shootouts, especially with the corners Leon Hall and Joseph looking great in the preseason.

Also disagree about the Bengals always having a ####ty line. In Palmer's best overall season, 2005, Levi Jones at LT was a Pro Bowl alternate and Willie Anderson at RT was a pro bowl starter. They also had Eric Steinbach and Bobbie Williams at guard with a very underrated Rich Braham at Center. This year's line is not up to that level. But they are better than the unit of the last 2 years.

Overall, I think Carson is right at his ADP. How is he realistically going to get to 30 TDs? Chad's max ever was 9. Coles looks just okay. Henry is a TD machine, but anything much over 10 is a stretch. Also, the Bengals do a much worse job than all the other elite offenses in getting passing TDs from TEs and RBs, so you are relying almost entirely on WR TDs.

 

[karmarooster]

from david dodds:

Peyton Manning - This offensive line is considerably worse in 2009 than it has been in years. Manning is still awesome, but with new toy Donald Brown and a worse offensive line this is a player I am mostly avoiding this season.

what say you now?

 

[LHUCKS]

Manning's only bad game of the second half was in the wind at Cleveland. He threw for as many TDs against PIT as he did against CIN (3). He had more yards against Jacksonville (364) than Detroit (318) Your schedule argument is bunk.

As far as Harrison goes, he missed many makeable catches last year, I actually think his absence is a plus, because Gonzalez converts a lot of targets that Harrison didn't last year.

Manning had only one game below 20 FP from week 8-16 last year. He went for over 25 FP in 4 of those 9 games. How can you say Schaub/Palmer or any QBBC is less risky than that?

Manning's game vs. Pittsburgh was probably one of the best games by any QB last year, there is no question he's an elite QB. From a fantasy perspective though, you've got to admit he's a career 30 TD guy...he's only thrown over 33 TDs ONCE in his career. Has thrown less than 30 TDs 7 of 11 years. Remember his ADP here is the late second. No way am I drafting a 30 TD guy when valuable RBs and WRs are on the board...I'm confident I can get numbers comparable to Manning's several rounds later.

IMHO, drafting a safe Manning is how you build a good, but not great fantasy team. Strike gold with Palmer/Schaub type late and you've got yourself one of the best teams in your league. Or even if you catch a sliding Rodgers/McNabb...all are better than nabbing Manning in the 2nd. Of the tight drafts I've seen this year, I almost always dislike the Manning teams...burning a second round pick on a QB that doesn't represent the VBD is a killer.

Consider this: who is more likely to throw <20 TD passes - Palmer/Shaub/Rodgers/McNabb or Manning?There's nothing wrong with a 30 TD guy at all.

That's the argument for Manning, but what I'm essentailly saying is that the VBD value just isn't there with solid sleepers like Palmer/Schaub around SEVERAL ROUNDS later. The argument against Manning isn't that he's not safe, the argument is that I'd rather have Palmer and Steve Smith than Manning and L. Coles.This is a VBD argument and draft strategy argument.

Are people forgetting what kind of players are still available in the late second?

 

[AtomicDogg97]

Why is Trent Edwards in green? Buffalo has looked horrible this preseason.

 

[None_More_Black]

Why is Trent Edwards in green? Buffalo has looked horrible this preseason.

I'm abandoning ship early on Edwards after the recent moves. Thought he was a nice sleeper with the wr talent, but after a poor showing in pre-season, coupled with the offensive line issues and the OC move, I have decided to just stay away.

 

[LHUCKS]

 

[Stinger Ray]

 

[The Ref]

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

It's weird, but in my league Manning and Rivers have been pretty good, while Brady has not lived up to expectations so far.Additionally, Flacco and Matt Ryan have performed very well.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

pretty much wrong on rivers, again.let your hatred go

 

[LHUCKS]

pretty much wrong on rivers, again.let your hatred go

My Rivers projections were more heavily weighted on a return to good Defense and an improved running game...neither of which have happened thus far. Rivers is forced to throw more than expected.He's a decent QB, I've stated that repeatedly, most of the credit goes to Norv Turner, despite Rivers' obvious limitations.

 

[Das Boot]

pretty much wrong on rivers, again.let your hatred go

My Rivers projections were more heavily weighted on a return to good Defense and an improved running game...neither of which have happened thus far. Rivers is forced to throw more than expected.He's a decent QB, I've stated that repeatedly, most of the credit goes to Norv Turner, despite Rivers' obvious limitations.

lhucks is dead right here, Phillip Rivers is no Matt Leinart.

 

[LHUCKS]

 

[joffer]

Green = Players to Target

202) JaMarcus Russell

 

[Knobs]

I see more misses than hits. Kudos for doing this to spark discussion but ooof.

 

[BassNBrew]

I see more misses than hits. Kudos for doing this to spark discussion but ooof.

Maybe next year I'll names out of a hat to spark discussion...probably would be more accurate.

 

[BassNBrew]

Green = Players to Target

202) JaMarcus Russell

 

[Ookie Pringle]

Why did you bump this? Seriously.

 

[gonzobill5]

looks to me that you made the mistake in all three threads in getting too wrapped up in value and not paying enough attention to the pedigree of the players. It's really evident in your RB picks.

 

[smackdaddies]

Why did you bump this? Seriously.

His subscriber team got wasted, so he needs something else to troll with

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

This has to be shtick.