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LHUCKS Draft Strategy 2009 (1 Viewer)

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Link to Leg 1: The QB Position

Link to Leg 2: The RB Position

Normally I put out my "Rankings Critique" earlier in the year, but this year I'm going with a different approach for a couple of different reasons. First, FBG rankings are ranked according to projections...that doesn't do an average drafter much good in terms of where to draft guys in a typical redraft head to head format. Second, I don't project static values for projections, because they aren't very valuable IMHO. I project ranges that are skewed by "risk factors"....thus it never really made sense to perform those critiques since my rankings and FBG rankings are based on two completely different premises, although I do think they brought about some good discussion, maybe next year I'll do both.

Below is the non-ppr WR ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away (at current ADP)

I never draft the players in red unless they have an uncharacteristic slide. If players are not highlighted that means I'd consider drafting them at their current ADP but wouldn't necessarily target them.

8 Larry Fitzgerald

11 Andre Johnson

12 Randy Moss

16 Calvin Johnson

22 Reggie Wayne

23 Greg Jennings

24 Steve Smith

25 Roddy White

26 Anquan Boldin

27 Marques Colston

31 Terrell Owens

32 Dwayne Bowe

35 Wes Welker

39 T.J. Houshmandzadeh

42 Chad Ochocinco

47 Vincent Jackson

48 Roy Williams

50 Braylon Edwards

53 Brandon Marshall

58 DeSean Jackson

59 Anthony Gonzalez

61 Eddie Royal

62 Santonio Holmes

64 Antonio Bryant

67 Lee Evans BUF

68 Hines Ward

69 Bernard Berrian

74 Santana Moss

84 Laveranues Coles

85 Jerricho Cotchery

86 Lance Moore

87 Kevin Walter

89 Donald Driver

91 Devin Hester

94 Torry Holt

97 Donnie Avery

100 Derrick Mason

103 Ted Ginn

107 Steve Breaston

117 Percy Harvin

118 Domenik Hixon

130 Chris Chambers

135 Josh Morgan

139 Michael Crabtree

140 Chris Henry

142 Steve Smith

143 Kevin Curtis

149 Patrick Crayton

150 Jeremy Maclin

151 Justin Gage

154 Nate Washington

156 Muhsin Muhammad

162 Earl Bennett

164 Hakeem Nicks

166 Mark Clayton

168 Nate Burleson

177 Michael Jenkins

179 Isaac Bruce

183 Joey Galloway

185 Deion Branch

190 Sidney Rice

191 Miles Austin

199 Darrius Heyward-Bey

205 Davone Bess

210 Bobby Engram

212 Robert Meachem

Overall WR Strategy

I've been targeting Randy Moss and Steve Smith early when the opportunity presents itself. I've been avoiding both Cardinals WRs at the top although Breaston is decent value because of his upside. Desean Jackson and Eddie Royal are finding a lot of my rosters. I also think Berrian/Rice have some value with an uptick in upside given the presence of #4. Chris Henry is on everybody's sleeper list but i also have Ocho and Coles as value plays as I expect the old Cincy passing prowess to re-emerge.

If you have any questions about why I like particular players or my strategy feel free to ask. I'll try to answer all questions as they come in.

 
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I notice Randy is green but Welker is red. Why?
Just the way my projections broke out. I have Randy #1...easily.I don't like Welker in non-pprs...you need huge reception numbers from him to justify his ADP and I just don't think big reception numbers are likely enough to justify his ADP.
 
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I'm pretty sure Chris Henry is going to be the TD target in Cincy...he's a steal. Both Boldin and Welker appear to be good value this year as well. Lav Coles, Walter, Cotchery and Morgan look very good at their ADPs. I'm avoiding Steve Smith.

 
Agree on Moss. Should be the first WR off the board.

Also agree on Smith. Best of the second tier.

Disagree on Roy Williams. Nothing but red flags there (injury, poor showing last year, questionable chemistry with Romo).

Also disagree with Hester Holt Avery. All guys I like in the mid rounds, along with the Walters Cotcherys and Drivers in that same tier. I'll be happy with any of them as WR3.

Curious that you've got both Hixon and Nicks green. Those two are somewhat mutually exclusive.

 
Disagree on Roy Williams. Nothing but red flags there (injury, poor showing last year, questionable chemistry with Romo).
that was a mistake, was supposed to be red.
Curious that you've got both Hixon and Nicks green. Those two are somewhat mutually exclusive.
Sort of...my projections catapult the high side of their range as I expect somebody in NY to emerge.
 
Why are you avoiding both Cards WRs?
Boldin - injury risk for both him and QBs.Fitz - I have him ranked #4 and he's going #1 overall.
I agree that Fitz is definitely "overated" this year in terms of where he is being selected. IMO I think Moss is the best wr on the board. If i'm not mistaken, 6 of Fitz td's came when Boldin was hurt. I remember before Boldin went out, he was the number 1 ranked receiver last year. I watched alot of cardinals games and Boldin seemed to be targeted alot more in the redzone than Fitz. I'm not questioning Fitz's talent but with Boldin in the mix i think Moss is hands down the best wr on the board. There is a huge risk with both these receivers considering that Warner is 38 and coming off hip surgery. If he goes down things could get ugly.
 
Link to Leg 1: The QB Position

Link to Leg 2: The RB Position

Below is the non-ppr WR ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

91 Devin Hester

97 Donnie Avery

117 Percy Harvin

118 Domenik Hixon

151 Justin Gage

164 Hakeem Nicks

190 Sidney Rice

212 Robert Meachem

If you have any questions about why I like particular players or my strategy feel free to ask. I'll try to answer all questions as they come in.
Curious about these guys.More specifically why you like both Nicks and Hixon and why you are up on Rice, but down on Harvin.

 
let's see. you have Peterson and Fitzgerald both at RED/STAY AWAY....hmmmm....

THis is Fitzgerald's 6th year in the NFL, which is right at the prime/peak of a WR's career. Sure he may not end up #1, but he is as safe as can be to finish top-5 WR in 2009. I've seen him get drafted as WR3 (after Moss and Andre).

 
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Link to Leg 1: The QB Position

Link to Leg 2: The RB Position

Below is the non-ppr WR ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

91 Devin Hester

97 Donnie Avery

117 Percy Harvin

118 Domenik Hixon

151 Justin Gage

164 Hakeem Nicks

190 Sidney Rice

212 Robert Meachem

If you have any questions about why I like particular players or my strategy feel free to ask. I'll try to answer all questions as they come in.
Curious about these guys.More specifically why you like both Nicks and Hixon and why you are up on Rice, but down on Harvin.
Hester - Still not a good WRAvery - Down on StL...not enough upside

Harvin - Not enough targets

Hixon and Nicks - The best WRs on their teams, somebody will emerge IMHO

Gage - Not enough upside

Rice - The Favre effect, and a lot of talent.

Meachem - Deep sleeper, looks great, powerful offense, injury histories of those in front of him

 
THis is Fitzgerald's 6th year in the NFL, which is right at the prime/peak of a WR's career. Sure he may not end up #1, but he is as safe as can be to finish top-5 WR in 2009. I've seen him get drafted as WR3 (after Moss and Andre).
I have him ranked as the #4 WR...no way is a #8 overall ADP justified IMHO.
 
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THis is Fitzgerald's 6th year in the NFL, which is right at the prime/peak of a WR's career. Sure he may not end up #1, but he is as safe as can be to finish top-5 WR in 2009. I've seen him get drafted as WR3 (after Moss and Andre).
I have him ranked #4...no way is a #8 ADP justified IMHO.
ok, he may be ranked #4 in 2009, and WR #4 the last 4 years has averaged 285 FP in PPR. I'll take over the 5th or 6th rated RB per ADP (S-Jax and LT).
 
Hester - Still not a good WR
Fair point but the Cutler factor ought to make him a solid WR3.
Avery - Down on StL...not enough upside
I see Dwayne Bowe lite here inasmuch as they're both the clear #1 wr on a team that will be forced to throw from behind all year.
Hester - doubtful, but it's possible. Cutler is going to make less of an impact on the overall numbers than people realize IMHOAvery - TDs kill him, no upside.
 
THis is Fitzgerald's 6th year in the NFL, which is right at the prime/peak of a WR's career. Sure he may not end up #1, but he is as safe as can be to finish top-5 WR in 2009. I've seen him get drafted as WR3 (after Moss and Andre).
I have him ranked #4...no way is a #8 ADP justified IMHO.
ok, he may be ranked #4 in 2009, and WR #4 the last 4 years has averaged 285 FP in PPR. I'll take over the 5th or 6th rated RB per ADP (S-Jax and LT).
Like I said, I take Moss and Johnson ahead of him every time. I also consider Steve Smith depending on the league.
 
I'm going to have to agree on Fitz. No way he finished #1. Anyone who thinks differently I'll give odds. There's NO WAY! With a healthy Boldin he'll be lucky to crack the top 6-7. Warner is old and getting fragile. This guy does not belong in the first round in any format. I wouldn't be surprised to see Boldin have a better season. Anquan missed 4 games last season. There's also a good chance at Warner's advanced age he'll get confused between Hightower and Fitz with those dreadlocks flopping around.

I'd feel comfortable taking him around 20....7th, LOL. Good luck with that. I'll gladly take the value that comes along with Colston or Royal and snatch a top RB. Fitz isn't worth it.

 
I'd feel comfortable taking him around 20....7th, LOL. Good luck with that. I'll gladly take the value that comes along with Colston or Royal and snatch a top RB. Fitz isn't worth it.
:goodposting:It's amazing what the Cards playoff run did to his ADP...his ADP is a joke.
 
Link to Leg 1: The QB Position

Link to Leg 2: The RB Position

Below is the non-ppr WR ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

91 Devin Hester

97 Donnie Avery

117 Percy Harvin

118 Domenik Hixon

151 Justin Gage

164 Hakeem Nicks

190 Sidney Rice

212 Robert Meachem

If you have any questions about why I like particular players or my strategy feel free to ask. I'll try to answer all questions as they come in.
Curious about these guys.More specifically why you like both Nicks and Hixon and why you are up on Rice, but down on Harvin.
Hester - Still not a good WRAvery - Down on StL...not enough upside

Harvin - Not enough targets

Hixon and Nicks - The best WRs on their teams, somebody will emerge IMHO

Gage - Not enough upside

Rice - The Favre effect, and a lot of talent.

Meachem - Deep sleeper, looks great, powerful offense, injury histories of those in front of him
Hester - May not be the best WR, but he will get better as time goes on. He started about half the games last year, and has had a full offseason under his belt working as the starter. He also has a stud QB throwing him the ball this year. Avery - I disagree about the upside. He has big play potential. He could easily outperform his adp if he and Bulger are healthy.

Harvin - They love this guys explosiveness and have added plays into the play book just for him. Plus, why doesn't the Favre effect take place for Harvin too?

Hixon and Nicks - I'm not yet sold that any of Smith/Hixon/Nicks will emerge. I think the three will split the WR production for the Giants without any of them outperforming their ADP by a large amount.

Gage - Disagree here.. He's very talented. I think he'll improve on his numbers from last year as long as he stays healthy.

 
THis is Fitzgerald's 6th year in the NFL, which is right at the prime/peak of a WR's career. Sure he may not end up #1, but he is as safe as can be to finish top-5 WR in 2009. I've seen him get drafted as WR3 (after Moss and Andre).
I have him ranked #4...no way is a #8 ADP justified IMHO.
ok, he may be ranked #4 in 2009, and WR #4 the last 4 years has averaged 285 FP in PPR. I'll take over the 5th or 6th rated RB per ADP (S-Jax and LT).
Like I said, I take Moss and Johnson ahead of him every time. I also consider Steve Smith depending on the league.
Agree 100%. I take Moss and Andre 100% of the time over Fitz. I wont hesitate taking Fitz as WR#3. Safe and almost a sure 280 FP unlike S-Jax and LT who got issues with injury/age. P.S. I cant believe there are still folks out there thinking Boldin > Fitz.
 
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Harvin - They love this guys explosiveness and have added plays into the play book just for him. Plus, why doesn't the Favre effect take place for Harvin too?
To have upside as a WR you need about 70 receptions IMHO...I just don't see that happening, certainly not worth his ADP.Great player though, and wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a premiere WR eventually.
 
I'd feel comfortable taking him around 20....7th, LOL. Good luck with that. I'll gladly take the value that comes along with Colston or Royal and snatch a top RB. Fitz isn't worth it.
:goodposting:It's amazing what the Cards playoff run did to his ADP...his ADP is a joke.
Part of selecting a player in the first round is the safety factor. Fitzgerald (along with ADP and P.Manning) are locks to be top five at their position. If you subscribe to the "you can't win your league with your first round pick but you can lose it" theory these guys are fine choices.
 
For the record, T.O. is a borderline red...my rankings heavily favor upside/potential and that helps T.O. quite a bit. He's a huge risk though and I would back him up in the next round if WR is an important position for the league.

I have T.O. in one league and followed him up later with Eddie Royal.

 
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I'd feel comfortable taking him around 20....7th, LOL. Good luck with that. I'll gladly take the value that comes along with Colston or Royal and snatch a top RB. Fitz isn't worth it.
:goodposting:It's amazing what the Cards playoff run did to his ADP...his ADP is a joke.
Part of selecting a player in the first round is the safety factor. Fitzgerald (along with ADP and P.Manning) are locks to be top five at their position. If you subscribe to the "you can't win your league with your first round pick but you can lose it" theory these guys are fine choices.
True, and I definitely don't subscribe to that theory although I augment my strategy if the league is a deep one...even then I draft to win, not to finish 3rd or 4th.
 
Avery - I disagree about the upside. He has big play potential. He could easily outperform his adp if he and Bulger are healthy.
You know what, I'm switching back to neutral on Avery...he was borderline to begin with, but I think my upside projection for him was a bit low.
 
THis is Fitzgerald's 6th year in the NFL, which is right at the prime/peak of a WR's career. Sure he may not end up #1, but he is as safe as can be to finish top-5 WR in 2009. I've seen him get drafted as WR3 (after Moss and Andre).
I have him ranked #4...no way is a #8 ADP justified IMHO.
ok, he may be ranked #4 in 2009, and WR #4 the last 4 years has averaged 285 FP in PPR. I'll take over the 5th or 6th rated RB per ADP (S-Jax and LT).
Like I said, I take Moss and Johnson ahead of him every time. I also consider Steve Smith depending on the league.
Agree 100%. I take Moss and Andre 100% of the time over Fitz. I wont hesitate taking Fitz as WR#3. Safe and almost a sure 280 FP unlike S-Jax and LT who got issues with injury/age. P.S. I cant believe there are still folks out there thinking Boldin > Fitz.
Tell me why Fitz is better? Or so much better than it's not even close.
 
Harvin - They love this guys explosiveness and have added plays into the play book just for him. Plus, why doesn't the Favre effect take place for Harvin too?
To have upside as a WR you need about 70 receptions IMHO...I just don't see that happening, certainly not worth his ADP.Great player though, and wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a premiere WR eventually.
You do get that he's going to run the ball too, right?
 
Harvin - They love this guys explosiveness and have added plays into the play book just for him. Plus, why doesn't the Favre effect take place for Harvin too?
To have upside as a WR you need about 70 receptions IMHO...I just don't see that happening, certainly not worth his ADP.Great player though, and wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a premiere WR eventually.
Well you must think Hester has upside then. He caught 50 balls last year and only started 8 games or so. Now he has a huge upgrade at QB and a year full off season to improve his route running and receiving skills. He has big play ability and Forte, Olsen, and Bennett to keep offenses honest.I think you are underestimating the impact Cutler will have for the Bears... Orton was an average QB at best who couldn't hit Hester deep. Cutler is awesome.
 
Harvin - They love this guys explosiveness and have added plays into the play book just for him. Plus, why doesn't the Favre effect take place for Harvin too?
To have upside as a WR you need about 70 receptions IMHO...I just don't see that happening, certainly not worth his ADP.Great player though, and wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a premiere WR eventually.
You do get that he's going to run the ball too, right?
yep, but not often enough to have a huge impact on his value IMHO.
 
I think you are underestimating the impact Cutler will have for the Bears... Orton was an average QB at best who couldn't hit Hester deep. Cutler is awesome.
Perhaps, we shall see. I've been less than impressed with what I've seen and the Bears are still a running/defensive team...at least that's what they want to be.
 
Regardless of opinions LHUCKS, you obviously have a bunch of admirers who value your opinions.

Congrats on your work.

 
I agree on Moss, and I also have a feeling that this may be the year Colston edges into the absolute elite. Of course this may be wishful thinking because I own both of them after my draft, but I like what I'm seeing out of the Saints this preseason.

 
Regardless of opinions LHUCKS, you obviously have a bunch of admirers who value your opinions.Congrats on your work.
I've been around a while, I think close to 10 years now...have had a few opportunities to prove myself in drafts. Mostly I do this to give back to the board because I appreciate what this place is. Joe, David and the staff do a good job.
 
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I agree on Moss, and I also have a feeling that this may be the year Colston edges into the absolute elite. Of course this may be wishful thinking because I own both of them after my draft, but I like what I'm seeing out of the Saints this preseason.
What many don't realize is that taking Moss over Fitzgerald can be the type of decision that wins you your league.
 
I'm also moving Boldin back down to neutral...looking at the numbers again, I think I've overstated his injury risk.

 
boldin is closer to green than red imo. moss>>>fitz so agree with the red but i dont think its a mistake to take fitz in the middle of the next round. say at 15 or so.

andre is damn close to a red at 11 adp in these leagues. it seems you are trying to factor injury risk and well, andre has a bit of a history.

basically, moss is a tier above andre, fitz and calvin.

ok boldin i like a lot. he gets it down every game he plays. he often gets more targets than fitz. last year, before his injury he had more targets than fitz. they are dual number ones. anyway, per game basis, boldin is just as good as steve smith, wayne, jennings and white. i think he is a tossup vs colston.

bowe is close to red for me. id prefer housh and ocho. welker will get 1100 and 6. i guess he doesnt have much upside, but very little downside. i would prefer housh and ocho over welker but i dont think hes far off. bowe is a tier below imo, due to the turmoil of that team.

ok, my biggest red on the board is anthony gonzalez. i really dont understand how this guy is going in the same range as desean, royal, vjax. he needs to make a big jump to get on their level. i dont see those guys regressing, wouldnt it make more sense to take the proven guy? esp when that guy is the focal point like royal, or the top wr and vertical target like vjax. vjax size also makes him a great red zone target. i can see gonzo over desean tho. philly spreads it out and desean will rely on bombs for a lot of points. still, desean is the best wr on a pass happy team.

anyway, im a huge gonzo hater. hes the wr 2 and the third option on that team. i would be loving him like 10-15 picks later.

 
but i dont think its a mistake to take fitz in the middle of the next round. say at 15 or so.
Agreed.
andre is damn close to a red at 11 adp in these leagues. it seems you are trying to factor injury risk and well, andre has a bit of a history.
His upside trumps his injury risk in my formulas.
ok boldin i like a lot. he gets it down every game he plays. he often gets more targets than fitz. last year, before his injury he had more targets than fitz. they are dual number ones. anyway, per game basis, boldin is just as good as steve smith, wayne, jennings and white. i think he is a tossup vs colston.
In leagues where I'm confident I can get WR depth Boldin is closer to a green, because you're right, hes a PPG machine....unfortunately he plays WR like Larry Csonka.
bowe is close to red for me. id prefer housh and ocho. welker will get 1100 and 6. i guess he doesnt have much upside, but very little downside. i would prefer housh and ocho over welker but i dont think hes far off. bowe is a tier below imo, due to the turmoil of that team.
Agree on Bowe.
anyway, im a huge gonzo hater. hes the wr 2 and the third option on that team. i would be loving him like 10-15 picks later.
I'm not avoiding him or going after him...haven't landed him on many of my teams. I like him in survivors because he's safe.
 
Roddy White is excellent value. Guy is a top 3 WR being drafted at WR8.

 
(quote from Malabar......ok, he may be ranked #4 in 2009, and WR #4 the last 4 years has averaged 285 FP in PPR. I'll take over the 5th or 6th rated RB per ADP (S-Jax and LT).

Malabar, his strategy is for standard format non ppr leagues. I'm down on the Cardinals this year as well.

 
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I see you have Anthony Gonzales as a neutral. Given his upside as the #2 WR in the Indy offense I would've thought that he'd be a green. I assume you're much higher on Dallas Clark than Gonzales?

 
I see you have Anthony Gonzales as a neutral. Given his upside as the #2 WR in the Indy offense I would've thought that he'd be a green. I assume you're much higher on Dallas Clark than Gonzales?
I have Gonzales as a high floor/low ceiling player...I like his ADP where it's at.
 
42 Chad Ochocinco

50 Braylon Edwards

53 Brandon Marshall

61 Eddie Royal

85 Jerricho Cotchery

89 Donald Driver

91 Devin Hester

100 Derrick Mason

103 Ted Ginn

118 Domenik Hixon

135 Josh Morgan

142 Steve Smith
I'm not there with you on these guys. I like Chad & Braylon where they're at, appropriate for the risk they each bring.

Marshall should be red since we don't even know when or what team he'll be playing.

Royal should at least be neutral with a broken finger (excuse me, open dislocation w/stitches) Orton chucking the duck, if not red.

Cotchery is the clear WR1 on the Jets now, not sure why he's not green at this ADP.

Driver hasn't died just yet and he's on a prolific passing offense, I like him better than Moore.

Hester - see Cotchery but with a much much better QB. He will be PPR gold at this ADP.

Mason is really that old and there is no way he comes close to last year.

Ginn is a prime breakout WR and should be green - Bess & Camarillo are underwhelming.

Hixon I'm neutral on, but Smith I have green. Nicks will be starting over Hixon by year's end.

I think Morgan will be more of a factor than we think, Crabtree will be a non factor for at least the first 1/2 of the season.

 
curious as to what your thoughts are on Earl Bennett. imo, he's the WR to have from CHI, especially at his ADP.

i think he's a guy to stash away, and see how things progress.

 
curious as to what your thoughts are on Earl Bennett. imo, he's the WR to have from CHI, especially at his ADP.

i think he's a guy to stash away, and see how things progress.
:thumbup: Bennett is clearly the guy Cutler looks to more than anyone else so far.. :P

AJ - just exactly who is going to throw the ball to AJ once Shaub is hurt ( what's that? he's already hurt?)

must bump AJ down in your rankings because you know you'll see Orlovsky at some point... :eek:

Steve Smith - do we really trust Delhomme anymore?

Eddie Royal - can't possibly be green with that muddled QB position in Denver and the injuries to the QB's there..first year head coach, about to lose the team as the Broncos implode due to the Cutler fiasco and the pending Marshall problem. too many red flags to consider Royal a green target..I'd stay away at all costs..you can find better stats elsewhere.

 
If your league awards points for kick/punt returns, I believe Harvin is a massive value and a big buy. Otherwise, I agree his redraft value is limited.

 

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