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LHUCKS' FBG Consensus Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Before I get started I just want to say that FBG is by far the best fantasy product available in all of the land and this critique is not meant to cast a negative shadow on the staff's efforts in any way. The purpose is to provide a catalyst for the discussion of the rankings. The world would be a boring place if everybody shared the same thoughts and opinions.

Well the Quarterbacks were fun. Here's my analysis of the runningbacks. Enjoy!

OVERRATED

1) Willis McGahee Ranked #4

McGahee looked great running the ball at the end of last year and he appears to have workhorse skill and talent. But 2/3 of a season does not a fantasy monster make. Very few human beings can take the pounding that 300+ carries in the NFL entails. Emmit, Edge, CuMar...these guys are freaks of nature, not the norm. I'm not saying he can't do it, as a matter of fact, he's ranked #8 on my list...he actually proved a lot by taking on 284 carries last year. But what I will not do is take his increased level of risk over the likes of Edge, Deuce, Tiki and Portis...all big time fantasy producers whom I consider to carry less risk than McGahee given their proven ability to take a large number of touches. Most of the time you can't win your fantasy league in the first round, but much more often than not you can lose it. Pick #4 is not the place to be taking on heightened risk IMHO.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Hicks #2, Fazio #3, Baker #3, Levin #3

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Smith #11, Henry #11 :thumbup:

LHUCKS Ranking: #8

2) Julius Jones Ranked #13

Jones is another second year runningback that showed glimpses of greatness in '04. Rightfully so, Julius is ranked much lower than McGahee, but there are two significant differences between the two backs in my opinion. First, Jerry Jones is already on record saying that he'd like to keep Jones to less than 20 carries per game. Second, the team brought in Anthony Thomas, a proven between the tackles type of runner that the Boys had been going after for quite some time. No matter how you slice it, you don't bring in a proven runner like A-Train if you don't have some concerns at the RB position. The Thomas signing seems to mix very well with the "less than 20 carries" remarks. To see what kind of impact less than 20 carries means let's take a look at Julius' game log from '04: (note only 8 games)

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

|  2  cle  |    5    16  |    14  |  0 |

| 11  bal  |   30    81  |     0  |  0 |

| 12  chi  |   33   150  |    -1  |  2 |

| 13  sea  |   30   198  |    11  |  3 |

| 14  nor  |   23    88  |     8  |  1 |

| 15  phi  |   25    80  |    21  |  0 |

| 16  was  |   22    57  |    10  |  0 |

| 17  nyg  |   29   149  |    46  |  1 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

|  TOTAL   |  197   819  |   109  |  7 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+
Julius had only three games with less than 25 carries as the fulltime starter and of those games he averaged about 81 total yards(that includes receving yards.) Mind you that was averaging 23 carries per game, which is not "less than 20." Yes it is a very limited data set, but it is the dataset we have to work with. Jones will probably have some big games, but I'm expecting enough mediocre games(by ff standards) to see his production fall around #18 on my RB list.Lastly and most importantly, Jones suffered not one, but two seperate injuries that limited his playing time in '04. Looking at this situation objectively it is more likely we're going to see a much lower touch count for Julius Jones than what many expect. I'm not booting him out of my top 20, but I'm not going to put him anywhere near #13 as I think he has a lot to prove in the durability department. Nice kid, great talent...we'll see if he can live up to my #19 ranking.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Baker #8, Hicks #9, Brown #9

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Levin #18, Anderson #18 :thumbup:

LHUCKS Ranking: #19

3) Correl Buckhalter Ranked #43

Correl has had more chances than I care to recall. The dude just can't stay healthy. Westbrook has been surprisingly reliable and the Eagles are looking to bring in some RB depth. No way is Buckhalter worthy of a #43 ranking. I have a slew of backs ranked ahead of C-Buck including Frank Gore, Stephen Davis, A-Train, Greg Jones...and the list goes on and on. Sorry C-Buck, you've got more risk than a penny tech stock in '2000.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Fazio #27, Wimer #39

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Not ranked by several staffmembers :thumbup:

LHUCKS Ranking: #67

Honorable Mention: Ahman Green

1) The Packers have a brutal schedule(Pittsburgh, Baltimore etc.)

2) Green isn't getting any younger and had some limited injury trouble in '04

3) Davenport has proven to be a capable backup

UNDERRATED

1) Tiki Barber #11

Tiki finished as the #2 RB last year so I'm not quite sure what's dropping him down? Schedule looks about the same. Brandon Jacobs is a role player...most likely at the goalline and other spot duty. The offense should be more consistent for the following reasons:

1) Eli saw a noticable improvement in the second half of the season

2) Plaxico should help take some pressure of the running game as well as contribute to the offense's overall effectiveness

3) Year 2 in a new system

The best reason for dropping him IMHO is taking some TDs away due to Jacob's presence...well I did that and he's still #5. Regression to the mean you say...who else is going to take touches away? Tiki is #5 in my rankings and is nowhere close to what I have projected at #11. Tiki is low risk and high reward....just the type of player I'd take in the top 5 of any draft.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Wood #5, Tremblay #6 :thumbup:

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Levin #23, Fazio #18

LHUCKS Ranking: #5

2) JJ Arrington Ranked # 27

Not a huge difference in rankings as I have him at 22...ahead of fellow rookies Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson. What a great situation for Arrington. He comes in with very little competition in an offense that even netted an aged Emmit Smith some decent yards. Arrington was a workhorse in college so don't let his stature fool ya. He's thick for his size and had the endorsements of several top coaches and scouts so many believe he's an NFL caliber back. The most important endorsement is Denny's though and he likes to play his guys. Shipp may get some touches but not enough to prevent Arrington from exceeding his #27 ranking. I see him as lesser risk than a handful of backs ahead of him and believe he's underrated currently in '05.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Wood #21, Stuart #21 :thumbup:

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Tremblay #33, Brown #49

LHUCKS Ranking: #22

3) Lee Suggs #36

That's right, despite trading for Droughns I believe the Browns still like Suggs and I believe they have a very convincing reason as to why...the way Suggs ended his '04 season:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| 15  sdg  |   21   105  |    -2  |  0 |

| 16  mia  |   38   143  |     4  |  0 |

| 17  hou  |   26   131  |    23  |  0 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

|  TOTAL   |  199   744  |   178  |  3 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+
Not too shabby considering his YPC was 4.5 and this was the only real stretch where he was given 20 plus carries per game. This is not the performance of a number 36 runningback. On the other hand, yes Suggs has risk. Droughns was brought in as competition and Suggs doesn't have a stellar injury history. But IMHO Suggs is better than Droughns. He's quicker and has better vision. Droughns was a great back in the Denver system, but Olandis Gary was successful in Denver as well. In terms of Suggs' injury history, Suggs carried the ball 199 times in weeks 4-17. Not a great workload, but we're talking about the #37 back. If suggs does stay healthy and if Crennel and company can make the offense respectable I wouldn't be surprised if Suggs finished top 20. He showed he can do it in a three game stretch and a new coaching regime may be just what the doctor ordered for this very talented back. Lastly, Droughns is holding out which can only help Suggs' pursuit of reaching 250+ carries. Crennel comes from the Patriots' mold of "team first", I doubt the holdout makes Crennel all warm and fuzzy inside.

I like Suggs' risk/reward ratio as the #28 runningback in my rankings, a full 8 spots ahead of the FBG consensus.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Tremblay #24, Rudnicki #27 :thumbup:

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Anderson #46, Levin #47

LHUCKS Ranking: #28

Honorable Mention: Carnell Williams

Great offense and has proven he can take the carries over the years at Auburn. If Pittman can put up great numbers in '04 than Caddy's could get downright gaudy...as with most rookies, durability is the major concern.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well there's the runningbacks, a few notes:

- There was a much more noticable variance amongst the staff on a few particular players which is interesting.

- I used some more statistical graphics...I hope that it didn't bog down the read.

- My top three are identical to FBG's

:popcorn:

 
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cracKer

Shawn Culcasi
Why the :thumbup: for ranking McGahee at #11 when you have him ranked #8? You're splittin' hairs, my friend, and it's been pretty much concluded that the difference between that group of runners is minimal.

But 1/2 season does not a fantasy monster make
HOFers have to start somewhere.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Why the :thumbup: for ranking McGahee at #11 when you have him ranked #8? You're splittin' hairs, my friend, and it's been pretty much concluded that the difference between that group of runners is minimal.

But 1/2 season does not a fantasy monster make
HOFers have to start somewhere.
The difference between my 4 and 8 is far from minimal.My tiers are:

1-3

4-7

8-14

*So I guess the rankings don't tell the entire story as those #11 FBG rankings are much closer to my #8 than they are to the FBG #4.

*Further, variance in ff points is normally greater in the top ten than say 40-50.

*12 of 16 staff members have a higher projection ranking for McGahee than I do.

*When you said "HOFer" I realize you're not being totally serious and perhaps he will be someday. I guess I'm not totally sold that he has that kind of durability yet.

 
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bostonfred

Footballguy
2) JJ Arrington Ranked # 27

Not a huge difference in rankings as I have him at 22...ahead of fellow rookies Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson. What a great situation for Arrington. He comes in with very little competition in an offense that even netted an aged Emmit Smith some decent yards.
Ronnie Brown's supposed to be the more talented player, and will likely get more carries, so even though the Miami line's not as good, I disagree with putting Arrington ahead of him. LT's line was awful when he started out - the good players get theirs. Otherwise, a pretty decent critique.

 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.

 

Mark Wimer

Moderator
3) Correl Buckhalter Ranked #43

Correl has had more chances than I care to recall. The dude just can't stay healthy. Westbrook has been surprisingly reliable and the Eagles are looking to bring in some RB depth. No way is Buckhalter worthy of a #43 ranking. I have a slew of backs ranked ahead of C-Buck including Frank Gore, Stephen Davis, A-Train, Greg Jones...and the list goes on and on. Sorry C-Buck, you've got more risk than a penny tech stock in '2000.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Fazio #27, Wimer #39

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Not ranked by several staffmembers :thumbup:

LHUCKS Ranking: #67
No one can deny that Buckhalter has had trouble staying on the field, due to his knees. However, he is said to be progressing well in his rehab and the team hasn't given him an injury settlement and cut him loose, so it looks like he's still part of the plan in Philadelphia. Yesterday, a Philadelphia area journalist wrote an article calling for a return to the 3-headed monster of bygone days as a remedy for the T.O. situation -- the below is clipped from last night's email update:

5. PHI – Travis Henry = T.O. Insurance? (Commentary)

Full Article: Click here for Full Article

Clipped from: Philadelphia Daily News article by Rich Hofmann, 5/10/05

So that is where we sit. The Eagles ought to redo his contract or

trade him now, but that's been said here already.

Given that neither of those things appear to be happening, though -

which means it'll be High Noon at Lehigh in late July - there is

another move they could make that could give them a measure of

offensive comfort on several levels, and provide the necessary T.O.

insurance, if you really think about it.

This is the move:

Get Travis Henry.

The Eagles have been very open about their desire to figure out a way

to work a deal to acquire the disgruntled Bills running back. Even

after the draft, Eagles coach Andy Reid said the Henry possibility

wasn't completely dead.

Most people believe the Eagles' openness was largely a way to put

pressure on running back Brian Westbrook to do a long-term deal with

them.

Besides that, a running back of Henry's accomplishment - he has been

over 1,300 yards twice in his 4-year NFL career - would put Correll

Buckhalter and his two repaired knees in a more complementary role,

and not in a spot where he will be tested too strenuously, too soon.

So there is all of that - enough to make the deal without any other

considerations. But Henry also would give the Eagles some T.O.

insurance because he would give them the ability to show everybody

another version of the old-time religion.

You remember, the three-headed monster.

This has been said last year, and this year, and it will be said

again: Owens gave the Eagles a home-run threat, and he changed the

appearance of the Eagles' offense, but he did not make it more

productive. This quarterback was very good and this offense was very

good without T.O.

If not for the disaster that was the NFC Championship Game against

Carolina following the 2003 season, the excellence of that offense

would have been recognized. That was the three-headed monster offense,

with Duce Staley, Westbrook and Buckhalter in the backfield. Those

Eagles walked the ball up the field more than the T.O. Eagles did last

year, and they ran in the red zone more than last season, but they

scored slightly more points per game down the stretch of that 2003

season than the Eagles did in 2004.

They could do that again next year, with Henry taking the place of

Staley. It isn't a perfect exchange of skills - Henry is the more

durable runner, Staley the more explosive receiver - but it could

work. It would be different but it would be viable. The coaching on

this team is good enough that they could make it go.

[[[[[[[[[[ OUR VIEW ]]]]]]]]]]

An interesting perspective on the Eagle's desire for Travis Henry – if

the team did go the 3-headed monster route again, it would depress

Westbrook's fantasy prospects somewhat – check out the 2003 stable's

statistics:

Games Rush Receiving

| Correll Buckhalter | 15 | 126 542 4.3 8 | 10 133 13.3 1 |

| Jon Ritchie | 16 | 1 1 1.0 0 | 17 86 5.1 3 |

| Duce Staley | 16 | 96 463 4.8 5 | 36 382 10.6 2 |

| Brian Westbrook | 15 | 117 613 5.2 7 | 37 332 9.0 4 |

/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/
If Buckhalter was on his way out, I don't think that area journalists would be calling for him to be part of a tri-partite RB stable in 2005. In conclusion, C. Buckhalter is definitely a player with an elevated risk due to his injury history, but as a #4 or #5 RB on a team a fantasy owner could do much worse than a potential for 500-600 yards rushing, 100-200 receiving and high-single digit TDs.

As a side note on Julius Jones, I'll remind y'all that our expert rankings were put out before the May 2 signing of Anthony Thomas by Dallas, so Jones is likely to be dropping in most people's next iteration of RB rankings.

 

H.K.

Footballguy
UNDERRATED

1) Tiki Barber #11

Tiki finished as the #2 RB last year so I'm not quite sure what's dropping him down? Schedule looks about the same. Brandon Jacobs is role player...most likely at the goalline and other spot duty. The offense should be more consistent for the following reasons:

1) Eli saw a noticable improvement in the second half of the season

2) Plaxico should help take some pressure of the running game as well as contribute to the offense's overall effectiveness

3) Year 2 in a new system

The best reason for dropping him IMHO is taking some TDs away due to Jacob's presence...well I did that and he's still #5. Regression to the mean you say...who else is going to take touches away? Tiki is #5 in my rankings and is nowhere close to what I have projected at #11. Tiki is low risk and high reward....just the type of player I'd take in the top 5 of any draft.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Wood #5, Tremblay #6

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Levin #23, Fazio #18

LHUCKS Ranking: #5

I disagree big time on this one, in fact, he is overrated at #11.

Tiki has one Top 5 FF year in his career and it was last season. He is coming off career highs for carries, rushing yards, total yards, and touchdowns.

His coach will replace him at the goal line, where he scored 67% of his TD's from last season.

From a performance versus ADP standpoint Barber 2005 = Ahman Green 2004.

 

IndyHavoc

Footballguy
UNDERRATED

1) Tiki Barber #11

Tiki finished as the #2 RB last year so I'm not quite sure what's dropping him down? Schedule looks about the same. Brandon Jacobs is role player...most likely at the goalline and other spot duty. The offense should be more consistent for the following reasons:

1) Eli saw a noticable improvement in the second half of the season

2) Plaxico should help take some pressure of the running game as well as contribute to the offense's overall effectiveness

3) Year 2 in a new system

The best reason for dropping him IMHO is taking some TDs away due to Jacob's presence...well I did that and he's still #5. Regression to the mean you say...who else is going to take touches away? Tiki is #5 in my rankings and is nowhere close to what I have projected at #11. Tiki is low risk and high reward....just the type of player I'd take in the top 5 of any draft.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Wood #5, Tremblay #6

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Levin #23, Fazio #18

LHUCKS Ranking: #5

I disagree big time on this one, in fact, he is overrated at #11.

Tiki has one Top 5 FF year in his career and it was last season. He is coming off career highs for carries, rushing yards, total yards, and touchdowns.

His coach will replace him at the goal line, where he scored 67% of his TD's from last season.

From a performance versus ADP standpoint Barber 2005 = Ahman Green 2004.
I'll agree that that is a valid concern, but I think it is greatly overbalanced by the 3 points LHucks listed. It's a new system, Tiki has new RB coaching that quite obviously agrees with him. Manning's development will just put more pressure on the LB's and secondaries to hesitate on the PA, and targets like Plexiglass and Shockey should do a good job of tieing up the coverage LB's and DB's.I'm a bit concerned about wear-and-tear, but hope to see him looking spry and ready to handle another 350'ish touches. For reference, on my list he's sitting at 11, but in Tier 3 which moves around constantly (9-13). I can't quite bring myself to put him in Tier2 (4-8).

 

Rovers

Footballguy
UNDERRATED

1) Tiki Barber #11

Tiki finished as the #2 RB last year so I'm not quite sure what's dropping him down? Schedule looks about the same. Brandon Jacobs is role player...most likely at the goalline and other spot duty. The offense should be more consistent for the following reasons:

1) Eli saw a noticable improvement in the second half of the season

2) Plaxico should help take some pressure of the running game as well as contribute to the offense's overall effectiveness

3) Year 2 in a new system

The best reason for dropping him IMHO is taking some TDs away due to Jacob's presence...well I did that and he's still #5. Regression to the mean you say...who else is going to take touches away? Tiki is #5 in my rankings and is nowhere close to what I have projected at #11. Tiki is low risk and high reward....just the type of player I'd take in the top 5 of any draft.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Wood #5, Tremblay #6 

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Levin #23, Fazio #18

LHUCKS Ranking: #5

I disagree big time on this one, in fact, he is overrated at #11.

Tiki has one Top 5 FF year in his career and it was last season. He is coming off career highs for carries, rushing yards, total yards, and touchdowns.

His coach will replace him at the goal line, where he scored 67% of his TD's from last season.

From a performance versus ADP standpoint Barber 2005 = Ahman Green 2004.
I'll agree that that is a valid concern, but I think it is greatly overbalanced by the 3 points LHucks listed. It's a new system, Tiki has new RB coaching that quite obviously agrees with him. Manning's development will just put more pressure on the LB's and secondaries to hesitate on the PA, and targets like Plexiglass and Shockey should do a good job of tieing up the coverage LB's and DB's.I'm a bit concerned about wear-and-tear, but hope to see him looking spry and ready to handle another 350'ish touches. For reference, on my list he's sitting at 11, but in Tier 3 which moves around constantly (9-13). I can't quite bring myself to put him in Tier2 (4-8).
I have Tiki lower, but for somewhat different reasons. He had 21 plays of 20+ yards from scrimmage last year, including quite a few that went for 50 or more. Long TD plays. That will be extremely hard to duplicate this year. I also don't see the Giants offense increasing it's TD production over last year by any real sinificant number. Perhaps another 3 or 4. I expect to see more of a redistribution of TD's around the Giants roster. Surely, the WR's will get more than one or two TD's in 2005. I think Toomer and Burress probably get a combined TD total of 11 or so. 6 or 7 of those will come from Shockey and Barber's totals directly, mostly from Barber. That is without considering what goal line touches Barber might lose to rookie Brandon Jacobs. One more item on Tiki. He has never had a serious injury. I am not wishing one on him at all, and one could point to this durabilty as a reason he should not be expected to lose significant playing time to injury this year, but call it a hunch of mine. I picked up Cloud cheap, because after the touches he got last year, I could see him getting more than just dinged up this year. It can be a fool's game, trying to predict lost playing time, but there it is.

 

IndyHavoc

Footballguy
I also don't see the Giants offense increasing it's TD production over last year by any real sinificant number. Perhaps another 3 or 4. I expect to see more of a redistribution of TD's around the Giants roster. Surely, the WR's will get more than one or two TD's in 2005. I think Toomer and Burress probably get a combined TD total of 11 or so. 6 or 7 of those will come from Shockey and Barber's totals directly, mostly from Barber. That is without considering what goal line touches Barber might lose to rookie Brandon Jacobs.
Bah, so negative on the Giants O? I need to go look up how the Colts offense did with Peyton from year 1 to year 2. I actually expect the Giants to put up at LEAST 8-10 more TD's, but have no statistics to back that number up...yet.Edit: Just checked it, Colts in 98 threw for 26 and rushed for 7 TD's. In 99 (PM's soph season), threw for 26 and rushed for 15. Now, this doesn't mean a whole lot, but it at least shows a precedent. QB in 2nd year, much the same cast of O players, can see improvements of 8-10 TD's.Sorry for getting this thread so focused on just this one guy, Lhucks.
 
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Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
This is great LHUCKS.I wouldn't place too much emphasis on these rankings, however, as they were the staff's first run through of the season and they are now nearly 2 weeks old. All of us that I have talked to have more than a few major tweaks. Barber has lept up to around RB15 on my board - the 23 ranking was really poor on my part - and McG has been dropped to #5 or #6.Regardless of your "tiers" analysis, history (at least since 2000) says the tiers you have made are useless. It breaks each year like this:RB1, or RB1 and RB2 are HUGE - way bigger numbers than the RB3-RB8 guys.RB3 is somewhere in between the vast gulf between RB2 and RB4, usually closer to RB2.RB4 to RB8 there is VERY little difference in EOY FF numbers - something like an average of 20 points separating RB4 and RB8 each year.If your top-3 are like our top-3, and your 4-8 contain basically the same RBs as we do, there is nothing over or under rated here - we have essentially identical rankings.

 

Joe T

Footballguy
Before I get started I just want to say that FBG is by far the best fantasy product available in all of the land and this critique is not meant to cast a negative shadow on the staff's efforts in any way. The purpose is to provide a catalyst for the discussion of the rankings. The world would be a boring place if everybody shared the same thoughts and opinions.
:mellow:
 

Joe T

Footballguy
I disagree big time on this one, in fact, he is overrated at #11.

Tiki has one Top 5 FF year in his career and it was last season. He is coming off career highs for carries, rushing yards, total yards, and touchdowns.

His coach will replace him at the goal line, where he scored 67% of his TD's from last season.

From a performance versus ADP standpoint Barber 2005 = Ahman Green 2004.
Actually, Tiki is probably the best value in FF this year. For the last three years, Tiki has averaged 250 fantasy points per season (and that isn't in pt per catch leagues where his value is even higher). That means for the past three seasons he has a higher fantasy point average than much more heralded backs like Deuce McAlister, Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Domanick Davis, Curtis Martin, Edgerin James.

That's pretty good I'd say. Guys that do it year in and year out like Alexander, Portis, Tomlinson, and yes Tiki Barber are a much greater value than someone who has produced for a season or less in my book. :thumbup:

 

Joe T

Footballguy
One more item on Tiki. He has never had a serious injury. I am not wishing one on him at all, and one could point to this durabilty as a reason he should not be expected to lose significant playing time to injury this year, but call it a hunch of mine. I picked up Cloud cheap, because after the touches he got last year, I could see him getting more than just dinged up this year. It can be a fool's game, trying to predict lost playing time, but there it is.
I'm going to do some research on this... but in my book, guys with an injury history are more likely to miss time, get re-injured, than guys without an injury history.Seems like common sense to me, but it might be time to put some numbers behind it.

 

tommyGunZ

Footballguy
I don't buy your rationale for the McGahee "overrated" call. You cite 3 factors: durability (or lack thereof), inexperience, and risk.Not a word about his 100 ypg and TDpg averages from last year. No a peep about how McGahee was considered a freak of nature type back before the injury. Where did McGahee finish last year in despite only 11 games as the feature back? (> 11 carries)Look for more explosion this year after another off season rehabbing the knee, and ~ double his receiving #'s as he becomes more acquainted with the passing game. The Bills are smart enough to understand they have an LT2 type talent in their backfield, and I think they'll run McGahee into the ground this year. I HATED Travis Henry, I LOVE Willis McGahee. FBG has this one exactly right, #4 overall right now on my board.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
The difference between my 4 and 8 is far from minimal.

My tiers are:

1-3

4-7

8-14
Who are these top three backs?
Actually it's more likeLT

Alexander

Edge

I put 1-3 in the original post for simplification. I should have been more detailed. I knew somebody would call me out on that after I posted it. LT is definitely his own tier.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
2) JJ Arrington Ranked # 27

Not a huge difference in rankings as I have him at 22...ahead of fellow rookies Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson.  What a great situation for Arrington.  He comes in with very little competition in an offense that even netted an aged Emmit Smith some decent yards. 
Ronnie Brown's supposed to be the more talented player, and will likely get more carries, so even though the Miami line's not as good, I disagree with putting Arrington ahead of him. LT's line was awful when he started out - the good players get theirs. Otherwise, a pretty decent critique.
Ronnie Brown was not the NCAA yardage leader last year, and Ronnie Brown isn't in a proven offensive system unlike Brown's rookie coach environment. Also, Ronnie Brown has no idea what it's like to take 280 carries. Arrington is clearly the safer back in year one. It would be foolish to argue over talent, but when looking at the big picture I thing Arrington brings less risk with more ff point upside in his rookie season.I realize I'm in the minority on this one, but my risk factor for Brown is very high.

 
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diesel7982

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
It doesnt matter, cause he hasnt done projections. Hes just guessing where he'd rank these people.
 

diesel7982

Footballguy
UNDERRATED

1) Tiki Barber #11

Tiki finished as the #2 RB last year so I'm not quite sure what's dropping him down? Schedule looks about the same. Brandon Jacobs is role player...most likely at the goalline and other spot duty. The offense should be more consistent for the following reasons:

1) Eli saw a noticable improvement in the second half of the season

2) Plaxico should help take some pressure of the running game as well as contribute to the offense's overall effectiveness

3) Year 2 in a new system

The best reason for dropping him IMHO is taking some TDs away due to Jacob's presence...well I did that and he's still #5. Regression to the mean you say...who else is going to take touches away? Tiki is #5 in my rankings and is nowhere close to what I have projected at #11. Tiki is low risk and high reward....just the type of player I'd take in the top 5 of any draft.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Wood #5, Tremblay #6

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Levin #23, Fazio #18

LHUCKS Ranking: #5

I disagree big time on this one, in fact, he is overrated at #11.

Tiki has one Top 5 FF year in his career and it was last season. He is coming off career highs for carries, rushing yards, total yards, and touchdowns.

His coach will replace him at the goal line, where he scored 67% of his TD's from last season.

From a performance versus ADP standpoint Barber 2005 = Ahman Green 2004.
Tiki's biggest problem this year is that he'll likely lose a couple hundred recieving yards, in addition to a few TDs.Manning seemed to have no clue where he was in the passing game.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
I don't include my complete rankings for several reasons, one of which is that in my money leagues everybody knows I camp out here. All my buddies use this site now and some check out the board quite frequently. I'll send my excel file for you if you PM me your email address.
 
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LHUCKS

Footballguy
If Buckhalter was on his way out, I don't think that area journalists would be calling for him to be part of a tri-partite RB stable in 2005.

In conclusion, C. Buckhalter is definitely a player with an elevated risk due to his injury history, but as a #4 or #5 RB on a team a fantasy owner could do much worse than a potential for 500-600 yards rushing, 100-200 receiving and high-single digit TDs.

As a side note on Julius Jones, I'll remind y'all that our expert rankings were put out before the May 2 signing of Anthony Thomas by Dallas, so Jones is likely to be dropping in most people's next iteration of RB rankings.
A) If Buckhalter stays healthy I think his upside is 600 yards rushing...add in the risk factor and hes nowhere near #43 in my rankings.B) Good point on Julius Jones, but there was a lengthy thread in which several staff members argued that the presence of Thomas did NOT have an impact on JJ's ranking. I was only one of a handful that argued it was a detrimental factor for JJ. That thread is here.

C) Point taken on JJ dropping due to the early rankings submission though. It will be interesting to see how far.

 
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LHUCKS

Footballguy
I disagree big time on this one, in fact, he is overrated at #11.

Tiki has one Top 5 FF year in his career and it was last season. He is coming off career highs for carries, rushing yards, total yards, and touchdowns.

His coach will replace him at the goal line, where he scored 67% of his TD's from last season.

From a performance versus ADP standpoint Barber 2005 = Ahman Green 2004.
When you say "career highs" that is a red flag for me. One must be very weary of looking at career stats when different coaching regimes are a factor. The fact is this, in only one year with Coughlin Tiki finished #2 in RB scoring. Tiki would have to have zero TDs with last years yardage numbers to fall to #11 in my rankings.I've never been a believer in blanket regression to the mean arguments, I need the analysis to back it up for my personal projections.

But I do agree that Tiki loses some TDs and even agree that his YPC goes down due to some big runs he isn't likely to repeat...thus he is only ranked #5 compared to last year's #2 ;)

 
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David Yudkin

Footballguy
I have some guys nowhere near where other staff members do. I'll be sure to be out of town when my rankings are added. :ph34r:

 

On The Rocks

Evil Conservative
i suppose you could be right but i like Julius Jones right where he is at. In fact, I think he is maybe a slot or two too low at #13. i will say this.....after watching Bledsoe take a beating last year in Buffalo when Travis Henry was the starter.....and seeing a significant drop in sacks after Willis McGahee was inserted to the lineup.....if Jones can't pick up a blitz.....Parcells will either have to put Jones on the bench and put someone in who can protect Bledsoe or Bledsoe will get benched for not being able to get out of his own way.Does anyone have analysis on Jones Pass Blocking skill?

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I have Tiki lower, but for somewhat different reasons. He had 21 plays of 20+ yards from scrimmage last year, including quite a few that went for 50 or more. Long TD plays. That will be extremely hard to duplicate this year. I also don't see the Giants offense increasing it's TD production over last year by any real sinificant number. Perhaps another 3 or 4. I expect to see more of a redistribution of TD's around the Giants roster. Surely, the WR's will get more than one or two TD's in 2005. I think Toomer and Burress probably get a combined TD total of 11 or so. 6 or 7 of those will come from Shockey and Barber's totals directly, mostly from Barber. That is without considering what goal line touches Barber might lose to rookie Brandon Jacobs.

One more item on Tiki. He has never had a serious injury. I am not wishing one on him at all, and one could point to this durabilty as a reason he should not be expected to lose significant playing time to injury this year, but call it a hunch of mine. I picked up Cloud cheap, because after the touches he got last year, I could see him getting more than just dinged up this year.  It can be a fool's game, trying to predict lost playing time, but there it is.
I was well aware of Tiki's big play total last year...as a matter of fact I bumped him down in the YPCs because I do think that was a bit of an anomoly. That is part of why I have Tiki only ranked at #5, as opposed to where he finished last year which was #2.When it comes to injury risk for RBs I look at three factors running style, wear, age and injury history. Tiki isn't quite old enough to get overly concerned and his injury history has been stellar. Maybe I'm underestimating his risk. But I have him as one of the least risky players on the board which may be partially why I have him ranked so high when compared to everybody else.

The great part about Tiki is that nobody wants him in the top six, so he will almost always slide. I just got him at #12 overall in SSL3 which is a ppr/16team/Survivor league...tailor made for a player like Tiki.

 
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LHUCKS

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
It doesnt matter, cause he hasnt done projections. Hes just guessing where he'd rank these people.
:thumbdown: Not true.

 
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ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
I don't include my complete rankings for several reasons, one of which is that in my money leagues everybody knows I camp out here. All my buddies use this site now and some check out the board quite frequently.
Makes sense. I'm just saying that it's hard to judge your opinions of one particular player without the surrounding ranking or tiers. But at least you aren't attacking the staff for their rankings..... :coughcoughmrharriercoughcough:
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Tiki's biggest problem  this year is that he'll likely lose a couple hundred recieving yards, in addition to a few TDs.

Manning seemed to have no clue where he was in the passing game.
Manning progressed quite nicely last year IMHO...which is part of the reason I don't see the dropoff that many others are predicting.A healthier offense is almost always good for backs like Tiki.

 
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The Steel

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
I don't include my complete rankings for several reasons, one of which is that in my money leagues everybody knows I camp out here. All my buddies use this site now and some check out the board quite frequently. I'll send my excel file for you if you PM me your email address.
that's not true :no:
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
I don't include my complete rankings for several reasons, one of which is that in my money leagues everybody knows I camp out here. All my buddies use this site now and some check out the board quite frequently.
Makes sense. I'm just saying that it's hard to judge your opinions of one particular player without the surrounding ranking or tiers. But at least you aren't attacking the staff for their rankings..... :coughcoughmrharriercoughcough:
If you ask about the surrounding players I'll break it down for you. I just don'l like putting out lists for obvious reasons. I also compete against many of you in varioius leagues such as MBSL, SSL, Zealots, FBG sponsored leagues etc. etc.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
I don't include my complete rankings for several reasons, one of which is that in my money leagues everybody knows I camp out here. All my buddies use this site now and some check out the board quite frequently. I'll send my excel file for you if you PM me your email address.
that's not true :no:
:lmao: ...exhibit A.But you're right...edited to say "a lot" instead of "all".

 
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HULLOBUDMAN

Footballguy
i suppose you could be right  but i like Julius Jones right where he is at.  In fact, I think he is maybe a slot or two too low at #13.

i will say this.....after watching Bledsoe take a beating last year in Buffalo when Travis Henry was the starter.....and seeing a significant drop in sacks after Willis McGahee was inserted to the lineup.....

if Jones can't pick up a blitz.....Parcells will either have to put Jones on the bench and put someone in who can protect Bledsoe or Bledsoe will get benched for not being able to get out of his own way.

Does anyone have analysis on Jones Pass Blocking skill?
Does anyone give Jones an upgrade due to more involvement in the passing game with the absense of Richie Anderson?
 
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Rovers

Footballguy
I'm going to do some research on this... but in my book, guys with an injury history are more likely to miss time, get re-injured, than guys without an injury history.

Seems like common sense to me, but it might be time to put some numbers behind it.
check out this link regarding injury risks.
Mike Herman, that was an unusually interesting link! :thumbup: It does support my gut feel that Tiki has defied the injury gods, and those stats prove that. In the last five years, some more Tiki stuff:Games: 80

Game Starts: 66

Games Missed: 2

Avg Touches per year: 321

That study says that half of the RB's that didnt miss a game will miss at least one this year. The average is closer to a 16 game starter missing 2.5 games or so the following year. Tiki has missed only 2 games and that was back in 2001. So, he has defied the odds, the statistics, like a craps player on a two day roll. Just my hunch, the odds catch up to him this year. I NEVER wish injury on any player, but it has to be a consideration in FF projections. To only evaluate injury risk on "injury prone" players is short sighted, IMHO. My hunch is that the odds finally catch up to an RB that has been so far, probably the most durable in the NFL.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
This is great LHUCKS.

I wouldn't place too much emphasis on these rankings, however, as they were the staff's first run through of the season and they are now nearly 2 weeks old. All of us that I have talked to have more than a few major tweaks.  Barber has lept up to around RB15 on my board - the 23 ranking was really poor on my part - and McG has been dropped to #5 or #6.

Regardless of your "tiers" analysis, history (at least since 2000) says the tiers you have made are useless. It breaks each year like this:

RB1, or RB1 and RB2 are HUGE - way bigger numbers than the RB3-RB8 guys.

RB3 is somewhere in between the vast gulf between RB2 and RB4, usually closer to RB2.

RB4 to RB8 there is VERY little difference in EOY FF numbers - something like an average of 20 points separating RB4 and RB8 each year.

If your top-3 are like our top-3, and your 4-8 contain basically the same RBs as we do, there is nothing over or under rated here - we have essentially identical rankings.
A) I have already adressed this but LT is my tier 1, I oversimplified in the original post to make a non-relevant point.B) My 4-7 contains Tiki which is the major difference.

C) Last year the #4 RB was CuMar at 278, Rudi was #8 at 226...that's a 52 point difference...quite substantial IMHO.

D) I use a risk factor that signficantly alters the totals for my projections...thus the variance can quite often be very significant.

E) The top three are identical, but there is good deal of variance from there on out.

 
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diesel7982

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
It doesnt matter, cause he hasnt done projections. Hes just guessing where he'd rank these people.
:thumbdown: Not true.
So in the last week you have done projections for every individual offensive player in the NFL? Cause last week in the Atrain thread you said you had not yet done projections.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
To only evaluate injury risk on "injury prone" players is short sighted, IMHO. My hunch is that the odds finally catch up to an RB that has been so far, probably the most durable in the NFL.
I cited four factors for quantifying injury risk, not just one.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
It doesnt matter, cause he hasnt done projections. Hes just guessing where he'd rank these people.
:thumbdown: Not true.
So in the last week you have done projections for every individual offensive player in the NFL? Cause last week in the Atrain thread you said you had not yet done projections.
I started about a month ago ;) So the staff has enough time to complete their projections and I don't??

Thanks for the negativity and the hijack.

 
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diesel7982

Footballguy
I think you are making this more difficult, perhaps on purpose, when you don't include your complete rankings.
It doesnt matter, cause he hasnt done projections. Hes just guessing where he'd rank these people.
:thumbdown: Not true.
So in the last week you have done projections for every individual offensive player in the NFL? Cause last week in the Atrain thread you said you had not yet done projections.
I started about a month ago ;)
Mind if I take a look at them? We disagree on so much that Id be curious to see where you have some guys ranked.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
i suppose you could be right  but i like Julius Jones right where he is at.  In fact, I think he is maybe a slot or two too low at #13.

i will say this.....after watching Bledsoe take a beating last year in Buffalo when Travis Henry was the starter.....and seeing a significant drop in sacks after Willis McGahee was inserted to the lineup.....

if Jones can't pick up a blitz.....Parcells will either have to put Jones on the bench and put someone in who can protect Bledsoe or Bledsoe will get benched for not being able to get out of his own way.

Does anyone have analysis on Jones Pass Blocking skill?
Does anyone give Jones an upgrade due to more involvement in the passing game with the absense of Richie Anderson?
Yes, I personally did. What really knocks JJ down in my rankings is his overall risk.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I disagree big time on this one, in fact, he is overrated at #11.

Tiki has one Top 5 FF year in his career and it was last season. He is coming off career highs for carries, rushing yards, total yards, and touchdowns.

His coach will replace him at the goal line, where he scored 67% of his TD's from last season.

From a performance versus ADP standpoint Barber 2005 = Ahman Green 2004.
Actually, Tiki is probably the best value in FF this year. For the last three years, Tiki has averaged 250 fantasy points per season (and that isn't in pt per catch leagues where his value is even higher). That means for the past three seasons he has a higher fantasy point average than much more heralded backs like Deuce McAlister, Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Domanick Davis, Curtis Martin, Edgerin James.

That's pretty good I'd say. Guys that do it year in and year out like Alexander, Portis, Tomlinson, and yes Tiki Barber are a much greater value than someone who has produced for a season or less in my book. :thumbup:
:hifive:
 

Rovers

Footballguy
To only evaluate injury risk on "injury prone" players is short sighted, IMHO. My hunch is that the odds finally catch up to an RB that has been so far, probably the most durable in the NFL.
I cited four factors for quantifying injury risk, not just one.
LHucks, that was a general statement, not directed at you. :shrug:
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
To only evaluate injury risk on "injury prone" players is short sighted, IMHO. My hunch is that the odds finally catch up to an RB that has been so far, probably the most durable in the NFL.
I cited four factors for quantifying injury risk, not just one.
LHucks, that was a general statement, not directed at you. :shrug:
oh, ok.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Where are all the Suggs haters/Droughns Owners?I thought he'd get more love/hatred than any other guy up there. :confused:

 

Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
when looking at the big picture I thing Arrington brings less risk with more ff point upside.

I realize I'm in the minority on this one, but my risk factor for Brown is very high.
I'm with you on this one . . . for 2005 anyway. By next year, Brown will be a top-10 fantasy back.I won't give a spoiler, but suffice it to say I see Brown and his 2.07 ADP as tremendously overvalued.

I like Arrington this year and see him as a good risk to evolve into a steady low-grade RB2, whihc is what you should hope for from an RB3, and which is actually above where he is being drafted (6.11, 35th RB at antsports). That is too low, and you should expect by the time training camp breaks that he'll cost a 3rd or 4th round pick.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
when looking at the big picture I thing Arrington brings less risk with more ff point upside.

I realize I'm in the minority on this one, but my risk factor for Brown is very high.
I'm with you on this one . . . for 2005 anyway. By next year, Brown will be a top-10 fantasy back.I won't give a spoiler, but suffice it to say I see Brown and his 2.07 ADP as tremendously overvalued.

I like Arrington this year and see him as a good risk to evolve into a steady low-grade RB2, whihc is what you should hope for from an RB3, and which is actually above where he is being drafted (6.11, 35th RB at antsports). That is too low, and you should expect by the time training camp breaks that he'll cost a 3rd or 4th round pick.
:goodposting: So much of Brown's success depends on how effective that offense is going to be...I for one have no idea which makes me very weary of Ronnie in '05.

 
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Noahs Troopers

Footballguy
I don't buy your rationale for the McGahee "overrated" call. You cite 3 factors: durability (or lack thereof), inexperience, and risk.
Are we sure Lhucks rankings were's clipped from last year? I seem to recall these comments:1. Travis Rules, McGahee will be a bust

2. McGahee will never overcome that injury

3. McGahee can't take a pounding

4. McGahee will be limited in carries

5. McGahee is the ultimate risk

Why are we still hearing the same old song and dance since McGahee heard these comments and should have answered all of these criticisms already. Some don't learn, I am a proud Willis McGahee owner and have him ranked #2 overall, but #1 in yards hence my sig. :popcorn:

 

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