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Line: Pittsburgh favored by 4 over Seattle (1 Viewer)
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BlueOnion
Footballguy
Seahawks easily. The 4-point spread is not indicative of the ability of the teams but the expected action to come in on each team. Pittsburgh has a huge following relative to Seattle and the bookies can anticipate a certain amount of action on the Steelers regardless of the spread. Heck, they may think Pittsburgh is a 2.5 point dog, but if they can make Pittsburgh a 4 point favorite and still get close to same action on them; then they'll post a Pittsburgh has a 4 point favorite.
T
trader jake
Guest
seems like a pick em' gamei'll take seattle and the 4
Jason Wood
Zoo York
...it's laughable that PIT is favored, absurd really.
jurb26
Footballguy
A lot of people are saying this, but why? The AFC has been far superior to the NFC all year and in recent years. Pitt went ON THE ROAD and beat the 1, 2 and 3 teams from the better Conference and did it handily. There never should have been a doubt as to who would be favored in this game and IIRC the talking heads in Vegas came out and stated that the AFC would be the favorite no matter what this year. As was the case a few weeks ago, I think far too many people are concentrating on what happened in the regular season and early weeks. The Steelers flat out have been the best team in the NFL since the strat of the playoffs and maybe sooner.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
Paraphrasing ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi:"It's who did you beat, where did you beat them and when did you beat them."I think it applies here.
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Idiot Boxer
Footballguy
As a Steelers fan, I hate being the favorite. I think these teams match up very well, which has been and will be mentioned ad nauseum until kickoff.
As a fan, I hope we can win. Trying to contain my bias, I still believe we can win, though I put it at no better than a 50/50 prospect.
As a fan, I hope we can win. Trying to contain my bias, I still believe we can win, though I put it at no better than a 50/50 prospect.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
You seem to be the only person that thinks the color of the jersey has any bearing at all on the game.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
They're favored (and the line hasn't moved) because Vegas set the line right where it should be. I assume you know that the oddsmakers are not interested in determining who they think will win, or even what the margin of victory will be, but merely what the betting public will see as a "correct" line, so that they get equivalent action on either side. The Steelers have a much larger fan base than Seattle and the general perception that the AFC is superior to the NFC meant if they had installed Seattle as the favorite, the action would have gone hog wild on the Steelers and the books would be primed to take a bath on this game. Thus, the fact that PIT is favored, given the non-movement of the line, is not absurd at all. In fact, LVSC creates the line as quickly as they can... in this case, while the NFCC was still going on. They release that number to the off-shore books prior to posting it in Vegas, because the "smart money" will jump on the first line they see, hoping for a mismatch. In fact, off-shore books actually frequently contact the top handicappers and give them a chance to wager (or recommend changes to) the "virgin" line. That way, LVSC knows if the line is tight before they release it to the MGM, Stardust, etc.This line opened at 3 1/2 from LVSC (based on the 3 online books I saw put it up at or just before the end of the NFCC) and it was at 4 in several Vegas books when it opened. This means that the "smart money" actually favored the Steelers - 3 1/2 by a small but signficiant margin.
Now, if what you're saying is that in your view, Seattle is clearly the better team and more likely to win, and as such should be GETTING points, then you should be thrilled. This gives you an opportunity to load up on the money line and get the favorite (in your opinion) at +150.
The Jerk
Footballguy
I don't think it's laughable or absurd, but I believe the line is 1-1.5 points higher than it should be. From a pure mathematical standpoint, ignoring matchup projections, etc., the Sagarin NFL ratings suggest a 1.14 point edge to the Steelers. Perhaps the oddsmakers are adding in one point for each of the following elements:
1. Slight home field edge expected for the Steelers
2. Roethlisberger injured for all of four games and parts of a few others (i.e., the Sagarin rating would be higher if he had been healthy all season)
Note on the Sagarin page that the Seahawks schedule ranked as 32nd out of 32. The Steelers played 10 games against the top 14 on this list (6 of these 10 on the road), while the Seahawks played 8 games against the top 16 (2 of these 8 on the road).
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Exactly...I'm not shocked that PIT is the favorite, in fact I would've bet money on it being that way. I just think, as you postulated, that they don't deserve to be.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
It's not quite as absurd when you look at how Seattle fared in road games this season. They benefited a LOT from playing at home, especially their defense. They won't have that advantage in Detroit.They lost to the Jags by 12.
They lost by 3 in OT to the Redskins after needing a late TD to tie it up.
They won by 6 in St. Louis in a game that was close throughout.
They won by 14 in Arizona, and it was a 7 point game until Alexander scored a late TD to ice it.
They held off a late surge by San Francisco to win by 2.
They needed a 4th quarter TD to beat the Titans by 4.
In the other 2 games, they destroyed an Eagles team that seemed to have given up and lost by 6 to Green Bay in a game they didn't need.
I think it's going to be a tough matchup for both teams, but I certainly don't think it's absurd that the Steelers are favored, especially considering how the Steelers have played away from Heinz Field.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Just one opinion, but I believe Seattle will control the ball and win the game, making the 4 points gravy. I am not a fan of either team.
The Jerk
Footballguy
I understand the purpose of the betting line. If you do the math, you'll see the oddsmakers still padded the Steelers side by at least one point to try to get equal action. However, my point is that there is a rational reason for favoring the Steelers. Everyone needs to get over the #6 seed stuff. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati (#3 seed) tied at 11-5 and split head-to-head in the regular season. A tie-breaker is all that separated #3 from #6. Also, the NFC #2 Bears finished 11-5 and lost to the Steelers. So it's very easy to visualize the Steelers as a #2 or #3 seed in ability. Circumstances placed them as a #6 when the postseason began.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Not that this is gospel, obviously, but....Clark Judge and Pete Prisco on CBS Sportsline discussing this exact issue (why are the Steelers as a #6 seed favored over the #1 seeded Seahawks?)....
Pete Prisco :
They're better. The Steelers were the sixth seed because they played in a tough AFC, plus they had to deal with injuries. They lost their quarterback for three games. Left tackle Marvel Smith's injury forced them to start a rookie in that spot for some time, so the Steelers struggled to get things going on the offensive line. The past six weeks, it has been outstanding. And that's a big reason the offense is clicking. The defense has played well all season. But the real reason the Steelers are favored comes down to one number: 3.4. That's what they allowed per rush in the regular season. The Seahawks base their offense off what they do in the running game, which means a lot of Shaun Alexander. It won't be easy running against the Steelers. They are also the so-called "hot" team. Winning three games on the road the way they did impressed people. They knocked off the two best teams in football on the road. The feeling is Seattle, even though it was the No. 1 seed in the NFC, isn't as good as a handful of teams in the AFC. Thus, we have a four-point line. And it's probably not high enough.
Clark Judge :
Because the Steelers are the better team from the better conference. Let's face it, it didn't matter who emerged from the AFC; that team was going to be the Super Bowl favorite. So that team is the sixth seed. Big deal. The Steelers have the momentum you like at this time of year, conquering the AFC's top three clubs in successive weeks -- and doing it on the road -- after winning their last four regular-season starts, including a huge victory over Minnesota in Minneapolis. Sure, I believe Seattle is underappreciated, but that's what happens when you live in the NFC West. The Seahawks won 13 of their last 14, led the league in sacks, had the top red-zone offense and No. 2 red-zone defense, and had the league MVP. That's terrific. But Pittsburgh plays in a tougher division and tougher conference. And its road to Detroit was steeper, much steeper. It not only got through all of that, its performance improved each week. Oddsmakers like that; so do I.
Steel City
Footballguy
I hate to break the news to everybody, but Pittsburgh is no longer the #6 seed. They're the AFC Champions.
To me Seattle has simply looked like the most complete team. There is not weak aspect of their club. It has to be concerning that the Steelers have not been running the ball well. That puts a lot of pressure on Ben. People may say Ben looked great in the AFCG, but he threw 4 balls to Broncos - all of them dropped. If just 2 of those get picked off, the Broncos are probably in the super bowl. I don't know if he can be that fortunate again.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
I'm taking the moneyline [i.e., putting my money where my mouth is]...beyond that, what's the point of debating this further? I think Seattle should be favored, and also that they'll win outright. Personally I think Prisco and lots or moronic gamblers are buying into the supremacy of the AFC lock, stock and barrel and doing too much looking behind versus thinking about the makeup of these two teams.The great thing is, two weeks from now, we'll all be able to either crow or eat crow depending on which side of the argument you stand.
cstu
Footballguy
What interesting is how easy it has been for people to overlook the fact that Seattle played without it's best WR since week 4. Without him, the Seahawks are a much weaker team but still went undefeated the rest of the season (ignoring the week 17 loss to the Packers in which many starters rested) - 13 wins in a row in meaningful games.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
jurb26
Footballguy
I totally respect Sea as a football team. As I have said before I think we are fortunate to have the 2 best teams from each conference in this game. I do not find it absurd that people are picking Sea to win outright and certainly not given the points. What I do find disturbing though is that several people seem to not understand why Pitt is favored. It seems obvious to me for the reasons already stated. Reasons that noone has countered btw.
It seems obvious to the betting public and most "experts", yet outlandish by several here. 
If you like Sea to win and like the points, thats fine. To say that it is absurd that Pitt is the favorite though is a totally different ball of wax.
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Stillers Jr.
Footballguy
This coming from an Iggle fan, right? What conference are they in? Conflict in interest maybe?
Stillers Jr.
Footballguy
Disregard him, he's a Browns fan for crying out loud...and obviously bitter.trip or you are
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Not overlooking that at all. I don't think anyone disputes that Seattle has a great offense that will test the Steelers' defense as much as any other offense has all year. They had an easy schedule, but they're definitely better with Jackson back.What's normally debated is how successful the Steelers' offense will be against the Seahawks defense. People can use whatever numbers they want, but the Steelers will have as much of an advantage against the Seahawks defense as the Seahawks will have against the Steelers defense. This is NOT the Steelers' offense from years past that can be controlled by stacking the line of scrimmage, and they keep getting better.Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
The Steelers' offense dealt with their own share of injuries... Ben missted 4 games and Marvel Smith's high ankle sprain cost him a bunch of games, too.
Both teams are healthy and ready to roll in Detroit.
cstu
Footballguy
Barring turnovers, it will be a very competitive game. Here's my breakdown:Seahawks Passing vs. Steelers Pass Defense: Slight edge - SteelersNot overlooking that at all. I don't think anyone disputes that Seattle has a great offense that will test the Steelers' defense as much as any other offense has all year. They had an easy schedule, but they're definitely better with Jackson back.What's normally debated is how successful the Steelers' offense will be against the Seahawks defense. People can use whatever numbers they want, but the Steelers will have as much of an advantage against the Seahawks defense as the Seahawks will have against the Steelers defense. This is NOT the Steelers' offense from years past that can be controlled by stacking the line of scrimmage, and they keep getting better.Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
The Steelers' offense dealt with their own share of injuries... Ben missted 4 games and Marvel Smith's high ankle sprain cost him a bunch of games, too.
Both teams are healthy and ready to roll in Detroit.
Seahawks Rushing vs. Steelers Run Defense: Slight edge - Seahawks
Steelers Passing vs. Seahawks Pass Defense: Slight edge - Steelers
Steelers Rushing vs. Seahawks Run Defense: Slight edge - Seahawks
Steelers Kicking vs. Seahawks Kicking: Edge - Seahawks and Brown's leg (5/8 over 50 yards vs. 0/2 for Reed).
BlueOnion
Footballguy
I have to agree here. Seattle has put together the most complete season. Their most recent performances against Carolina and Washingtoncan only be described as bland because their performance was on par with what they did all year. The those wins against Washington and Carolina were over in the third quarter; Carolina was a complete blowout and Washington was beaten early despite Seattle lossing the turnover margin. If Pittsburgh's performance in the playoffs resembled their regular season, they would not be in the Super Bowl. They have stepped up their performance to the level of Seattle, Indy and Denver. But relative to their performance in the regular season, Pittsburgh may appear to be performing at a higher level than the Seahawks, when in fact they have just arrived at the Seahawks level.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I couldn't disagree more. Seattle spent the season being impressive against teams like Arizona, St. Louis, Houston, and San Francisco. They lost to Jacksonville and Washington. They beat Dallas, Atlanta, and the Giants by only 3 and needed a late TD to beat the Titans. Further, they were MUCH better at home than on the road. They beat the Indy backups and the Eagles minus TO and McNabb, and they lost to the Packers in a meaningless game.
They have a very good team, and I understand that getting DJax back has helped, but I'd hardly say they've been THAT impressive all year. I'm not knocking them, only the notion that somehow they've been more impressive all year.
As for the Steelers, they started out playing very well and went through a period in the middle of the season where injuries (especially to Roethlisberger and Smith) slowed them down. Since the Cincy loss, they've been playing outstanding football... it's not something that just started in the playoffs. The Steelers are a 13-3 football team that lost 2 games because of Tommy Maddox.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
What, exactly? The team that Seattle will face this Sunday is healthy, and they've been very impressive when healthy all year long. Games they lost or struggled a little in with Maddox at QB or Trai Essex at LT don't mean much anymore.And I still fail to see what's so impressive about the season the Seahawks had when you consider who they beat, how they beat them, and where they beat them. They had a couple of blowout wins over terrible teams and had close games with less talented teams (2 losses) almost every time they went on the road.
I've been pretty vocal in that I respect what challenges the Steelers will have in beating Seattle, but I think some people are trying to pump up what Seattle has done this year a little more than it deserves.
BlueOnion
Footballguy
Well Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore didn't they? I am sure there are a plethora of excuses as to why Pittsburgh lost, but my point is Seattle has nothing to make excuses about.
Seattle has had injuries too, however they still don't have to make an excuse for anything.
The body of the 16 games they played is what I am considering impressive. Despite their injuries, they consistently beat the teams they were suppose to week in and week out.
Possibly, that is what makes the sport so fun, everyone has their own opinion.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I guess for me, an intangible factor is what separates the teams at this point. Lets face it, no team was more battle tested than Pittsburgh throughout the playoffs. What they accomplished up to this point in the environments that they were put in is remarkable. They are brimming with confidence. I'm not saying Seattle isn't but their road to Detroit was much easier than Pittsburgh's. I think talent-wise the two teams are pretty close (Seattle probably gets the edge) but will Seattle be able to match the intensity of the Steelers? For the life of me, after taking the road that they have taken and beating the teams that they have beaten to get here, I just don't see the Steelers blowing this opportunity (regardless of who they have to play). Of course I'm throwing numbers and analysis out the window and making this pick based on my heart.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Here's hoping the trend continues......
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
BGP is just the quintessential Steeler-hater. Any ball thrown within 20 feet of a Broncos defender "should have been" intercepted. Now granted, the route Bailey jumped maybe should have been an interception, but it would have been a tough play. The ball that was a toss-up in the end zone could just have easily been caught by washington as Foxworth. He counts the TD pass to Ward as well - a perfectly thrown ball over two defenders. Because the CB didn't make an amazing play to corral that ball, that's a "drop." I don't even know what the fourth one is, but when it comes to the Steelers, you can disregard anything he says. They always "got lucky", even if they dominate the game.
The Jerk
Footballguy
You'll get no argument from me over winning games. In the NFL, a win is a win. But it's the "impressive" tag where people disagree.Including the playoffs, Seattle faced 7 teams with winning records. They were 5-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. A closer look reveals that the three regular season home wins were vs. Dallas (Cowboys led nearly all game), Giants (3 missed FG late, lost in OT) and the Colts junior varsity. They have been more impressive in the playoffs, but they played two wild card teams at home. In fact, the aforementioned Giants and Colts victories are the only games Seattle played vs. division winners.Compare this resume with the Steelers. Including the playoffs, Pittsburgh has played 11 games vs. teams with winning records. They were a disappointing 1-3 at home, but 6-1 on the road. They are 5-3 against division winners, with decisive victories over Cincinnati twice (although once was vs. Jon Kitna), Chicago, Denver, and arguably Indianapolis (official interception reversal factored in). Except for Chicago, all of these contests were won on the road.None of this means anything concerning SB XL, but I think it can explain why the Steelers are favored and why people can argue that the Steelers are the better team despite Seattle having the better won/lost record. The best part is that, unlike the BCS, this will be settled on the field.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Exactly. I know they won their games, but they didn't really look impressive doing it unless the were playing the bottom feeders of the NFC. Against better competition and on the road, they didn't look nearly as good or win nearly as convincingly. I just fail to see what's impressive about how, where, and against whom they won.BlueOnion, you mention the loss to Baltimore suffered by the Steelers, and I don't really factor in that loss or the loss to Jacksonville because they were a result of Maddox being in rather than Ben. Their other 3 losses were to New England early in the season, Cincinnati in a shootout at home where they just turned the ball over too many times to win, and Indianapolis on the road in Ben's first game back after missing a month and with Trai Essex at LT. We saw in the playoffs how much those two players meant to the offense.
If Seattle had played a more challenging schedule, any significant injuries would've been much more important, but a win is a win.
tarheel23
Footballguy
I don't think anyone is pumping up the Seahawks. The national take is that the Steelers are going to win. More money is being placed on the Steelers which is moving the line up. We have heard the SOS argument for a month now and the hawks keep winning. Now it is the AFC is so much better than the NFC.I have great respect for the Steelers and they might well win but the Seahawks should not be dismissed.
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