LJ or MBIII (1 Viewer)

[madsklz]

With Larry Johnson coming back off injury and hopefully refreshed, I can see him putting up Larry Johnson type numbers again. With Barber "potentially" being the guy now, (minus Jerry doing something drastic in the draft) will be his first time as a full time starter. I would hope his numbers will increase, but now defenses will plan for him. Will either guy break down during the season?

Who puts up the better #'s??

My projections

Barber - 1700 yards rushing 15 TD's; 500 receiveing, 3 TD's

Johnson - 1200 yards rushing 10 TD's; 350 receiving, 2 TD's

 

[Banger]

I guess you like Barber a lot. I'd be shocked if he got 1700 rush yards.

 

[madsklz]

I guess you like Barber a lot. I'd be shocked if he got 1700 rush yards.

I'll be honest, I think it is wishful thinking, I just think the guy is on the edge of making ot big. IF he can run as a starter like he did last year as a split time guy. The guy is a beast to bring down

 

[spy231]

I have both going into the 3rd year of a dynasty. They are my #2 and #3 backs. I am really hoping MBIII can handle the load all season. He has a punishing running style which I love to watch since I am a cowboys fan, but can he do it the whole season?

I think LJ can come back. I am really hoping that Jake Long can fall to them at the #5 pick. I think this would help him out.

Overall though I am thinking MBIII will be the better back this year.

 

[Banger]

I guess you like Barber a lot. I'd be shocked if he got 1700 rush yards.

I'll be honest, I think it is wishful thinking, I just think the guy is on the edge of making ot big. IF he can run as a starter like he did last year as a split time guy. The guy is a beast to bring down

I'd be leary of taking his ypc and extrapolating it out. He was very effective as a part time back but how he will be as a full time back is yet to be seen. He dishes punishment and takes a ton and at the end of the day he is human so he'll either have to change his style slightly or he's gonna be injured an awful lot IMO. One thing that opened my eyes was the Giant game in the playoffs. He had 16 carries in the 1st half and looked like a beast 16-101 (6.3 ypc), then the 2nd half he ran 11 times for 28 yards (2.5 ypc). During the year last year he only carried the ball more than 16 times 4 times (19, 18, 17, 22) and if he's going to be a featured back he's got to have to be able to carry the ball 20 times a game regularly. Was that 2nd half due to him being gassed or just the Giants making adjustments? Can he take the punishment of 20+ carries over a 19-20 game period? I don't know these answers and am leary of drafting him as a top back as a result.

 

[Banger]

I have both going into the 3rd year of a dynasty. They are my #2 and #3 backs. I am really hoping MBIII can handle the load all season. He has a punishing running style which I love to watch since I am a cowboys fan, but can he do it the whole season? I think LJ can come back. I am really hoping that Jake Long can fall to them at the #5 pick. I think this would help him out.Overall though I am thinking MBIII will be the better back this year.

He probably will be due to the fact that the Cowboys will have a top 5 offense while the Chiefs will have a bottom 5 offense.

 

[madsklz]

I guess you like Barber a lot. I'd be shocked if he got 1700 rush yards.

I'll be honest, I think it is wishful thinking, I just think the guy is on the edge of making ot big. IF he can run as a starter like he did last year as a split time guy. The guy is a beast to bring down

I'd be leary of taking his ypc and extrapolating it out. He was very effective as a part time back but how he will be as a full time back is yet to be seen. He dishes punishment and takes a ton and at the end of the day he is human so he'll either have to change his style slightly or he's gonna be injured an awful lot IMO. One thing that opened my eyes was the Giant game in the playoffs. He had 16 carries in the 1st half and looked like a beast 16-101 (6.3 ypc), then the 2nd half he ran 11 times for 28 yards (2.5 ypc). During the year last year he only carried the ball more than 16 times 4 times (19, 18, 17, 22) and if he's going to be a featured back he's got to have to be able to carry the ball 20 times a game regularly. Was that 2nd half due to him being gassed or just the Giants making adjustments? Can he take the punishment of 20+ carries over a 19-20 game period? I don't know these answers and am leary of drafting him as a top back as a result.

With his low carry numbers, I am hoping he has a pair of "fresh legs" this year. While his running style is punishing, for him and defenders, I am really hoping he doesn't change to much. I think running the way he does, is what makes him a "possible" stud. I am guessing he will get stronger as the game goes, and his numbers from the Giant game will be the opppsite. Lower numbers in the first half, then balooning up in the second.

 

[EBF]

I would take Barber. Similar talent on a much better offense usually = better numbers.

 

[Blackjacks]

With Larry Johnson coming back off injury and hopefully refreshed, I can see him putting up Larry Johnson type numbers again. With Barber "potentially" being the guy now, (minus Jerry doing something drastic in the draft) will be his first time as a full time starter. I would hope his numbers will increase, but now defenses will plan for him. Will either guy break down during the season?Who puts up the better #'s??My projectionsBarber - 1700 yards rushing 15 TD's; 500 receiveing, 3 TD'sJohnson - 1200 yards rushing 10 TD's; 350 receiving, 2 TD's

So let's see here. You expect Barber to beat the #'s him and Jones combined for last year.....why? I would think both guys giving each other a break would be fresher wouldn't you? You take one away and give all the carries to one guy and I think the #'s will go down instead of up. I do like Barber more than LJ but I would feel safer putting Barber at about 1200 yards rushing and adding another 200 in recieving and about 10 td total. That is a very nice year and usually a top 5 rb. Lt was #1 last year and only had 1950 yards total and the same td's. I think your #'s are alittle high but still I like Barber and I think he will be good. I just hope he can hold up. He hasn't been "the guy" for quite some time. When he was in college he shared time with Maroney and since he's been with the Cowboys he has shared time with J. Jones. Alittle premature to say he is a lock to be in the top 5.

 

[munchkin]

I would take Barber. Similar talent on a much better offense usually = better numbers.

i own LJ but MBIII is in a position to have a better year given the team around him, but 2000 ap yds and 17 td's would be the perfect storm.

 

[TheFanatic]

With Larry Johnson coming back off injury and hopefully refreshed, I can see him putting up Larry Johnson type numbers again. With Barber "potentially" being the guy now, (minus Jerry doing something drastic in the draft) will be his first time as a full time starter. I would hope his numbers will increase, but now defenses will plan for him. Will either guy break down during the season?Who puts up the better #'s??My projectionsBarber - 1700 yards rushing 15 TD's; 500 receiveing, 3 TD'sJohnson - 1200 yards rushing 10 TD's; 350 receiving, 2 TD's

So let's see here. You expect Barber to beat the #'s him and Jones combined for last year.....why? I would think both guys giving each other a break would be fresher wouldn't you? You take one away and give all the carries to one guy and I think the #'s will go down instead of up. I do like Barber more than LJ but I would feel safer putting Barber at about 1200 yards rushing and adding another 200 in recieving and about 10 td total. That is a very nice year and usually a top 5 rb. Lt was #1 last year and only had 1950 yards total and the same td's. I think your #'s are alittle high but still I like Barber and I think he will be good. I just hope he can hold up. He hasn't been "the guy" for quite some time. When he was in college he shared time with Maroney and since he's been with the Cowboys he has shared time with J. Jones. Alittle premature to say he is a lock to be in the top 5.

Wow, I pretty much agree entirely. To predict Barber to have one of the greatest offensive seasons as a RB of all time is pretty bold. We're talking 2,200 total yards and 18 TD's. That's more yards on the ground, in the air, rushing TD's and receiving TD's than both MBIII and JJ combined in 2007. Very rarely when a RBBC becomes just a single RB does the single RB equal the RBBC totals from the year prior. Much less add to it...For me, I would drop the receiving TD's to 1 or none. Knock the rushing TD's down to the 10-12 range and the rushing yards seem high as well. Maybe 1300. Don't forget that the Cowboys had 29 TD's between TO, Crayton and Witten last year (out of Romo's 36 total). That's a lot of aerial O.

 

[TheFanatic]

BTW, can anyone guess who JUST got MBIII in a trade?

 

[Blackjacks]

BTW, can anyone guess who JUST got MBIII in a trade?

We actually agree on something :(

 

[One]

I'm a HUGE LJ fan, but I'd go with Barber.

 

[TheFanatic]

BTW, can anyone guess who JUST got MBIII in a trade?

We actually agree on something

Don't worry Tim, you were bound to find an acorn sooner or later....

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm a HUGE LJ fan, but I'd go with Barber.

Oh, and after knocking down Barber's numbers I still go with Barber over LJ....

 

[Sabertooth]

I would take Barber. Similar talent on a much better offense usually = better numbers.

Similar talent? I don't think so. Larry has shown he can be the very best. Barber hasn't even been a starter for a full season. Larry >>> MB3.

 

[EBF]

I would take Barber. Similar talent on a much better offense usually = better numbers.

Similar talent? I don't think so. Larry has shown he can be the very best. Barber hasn't even been a starter for a full season. Larry >>> MB3.

They have the exact same career YPC average. Larry was great when the Chiefs had a great offensive line and a good supporting cast, but he got shut down last year with Croyle and Huard behind the controls. Barber had a much better season and is on an offense that will give him more scoring opportunities. I think he is more likely to give you RB1 numbers next season.

 

[travdogg]

I'd rather have LJ this year, his offense is built around him where as Barber is just a cog.

In a dynasty I'd prefer Barber but its pretty close, I expect Dallas to take Felix Jones in the draft if he is there.

 

[Christo]

I would take Barber. Similar talent on a much better offense usually = better numbers.

Similar talent? I don't think so. Larry has shown he can be the very best. Barber hasn't even been a starter for a full season. Larry >>> MB3.

They have the exact same career YPC average. Larry was great when the Chiefs had a great offensive line and a good supporting cast, but he got shut down last year with Croyle and Huard behind the controls.

He got off to a slow start, but he rushed for over 100 yards in 3 of the 4 games before his iinjury.

Barber had a much better season and is on an offense that will give him more scoring opportunities.

Of course he did, he didn't miss 1/2 the season with a foot injury.

I think he is more likely to give you RB1 numbers next season.

Maybe, maybe not. But we do know two things: (1) LJ has proved he can carry the load; (2) MBIII has not.

 

[madsklz]

Wow, I pretty much agree entirely. To predict Barber to have one of the greatest offensive seasons as a RB of all time is pretty bold. We're talking 2,200 total yards and 18 TD's. That's more yards on the ground, in the air, rushing TD's and receiving TD's than both MBIII and JJ combined in 2007. Very rarely when a RBBC becomes just a single RB does the single RB equal the RBBC totals from the year prior. Much less add to it...

For me, I would drop the receiving TD's to 1 or none. Knock the rushing TD's down to the 10-12 range and the rushing yards seem high as well. Maybe 1300. Don't forget that the Cowboys had 29 TD's between TO, Crayton and Witten last year (out of Romo's 36 total). That's a lot of aerial O.

Bold, but possible. Did anyone predict Steven Jackson year from 2006? Did anyone know Priest Holmes would go off like he did in KC? I know the situation is rare, but my logic is this. The man runs like a possessed beast, and with the aforementioned pass attack, there should be more running lanes for him to burst through.

I know out performing what he and Jones did last year may be a reach, but it's not like I said 1800 rushing yards, 28 TD's 500 receiving and 3 TD's. LT is a STUD, but could anyone of predicted those numbers? Now I am not saying MB3 is an LT2, but all I'm saying is the numbers may be a stretch, but they are possible.

 

[jurb26]

Bold, but possible. Did anyone predict Steven Jackson year from 2006? Did anyone know Priest Holmes would go off like he did in KC? I know the situation is rare, but my logic is this. The man runs like a possessed beast, and with the aforementioned pass attack, there should be more running lanes for him to burst through.

I know out performing what he and Jones did last year may be a reach, but it's not like I said 1800 rushing yards, 28 TD's 500 receiving and 3 TD's. LT is a STUD, but could anyone of predicted those numbers? Now I am not saying MB3 is an LT2, but all I'm saying is the numbers may be a stretch, but they are possible.

I would concede that there is a possibility of Barber reaching those numbers in Dal next year. It is far from likely is all. I am really reserving judgment on Barber for post draft. A lot of talking heads seem to think Dal wants to burn an early pick on a RB to spell Barber. I don't necessarily agree with that. I think Dal is looking for a WR and CB help 1st and for most and is more prone to draft BPA (which I find highly unlikely will be a RB). However, given Barber's hard nosed running style I would have to agree that if I were in the Dal front office I would want to have a capable RB in place in case Barber gets hurt trying to make bowling pins out of would be tacklers.Oh, as far as the vote goes. I pick Barber to have a better 2008.

 

[Sabertooth]

I would take Barber. Similar talent on a much better offense usually = better numbers.

Similar talent? I don't think so. Larry has shown he can be the very best. Barber hasn't even been a starter for a full season. Larry >>> MB3.

They have the exact same career YPC average. Larry was great when the Chiefs had a great offensive line and a good supporting cast, but he got shut down last year with Croyle and Huard behind the controls.

He got off to a slow start, but he rushed for over 100 yards in 3 of the 4 games before his iinjury.

Barber had a much better season and is on an offense that will give him more scoring opportunities.

Of course he did, he didn't miss 1/2 the season with a foot injury.

I think he is more likely to give you RB1 numbers next season.

Maybe, maybe not. But we do know two things: (1) LJ has proved he can carry the load; (2) MBIII has not.

Pretty much my thinking. MB3 is a great player. I love watching him run. But LJ has shown that he can be elite. I like both for next season, but I'd hitch my wagon to LJ first.

 

[greyone]

I have both going into the 3rd year of a dynasty. They are my #2 and #3 backs. I am really hoping MBIII can handle the load all season. He has a punishing running style which I love to watch since I am a cowboys fan, but can he do it the whole season? I think LJ can come back. I am really hoping that Jake Long can fall to them at the #5 pick. I think this would help him out.Overall though I am thinking MBIII will be the better back this year.

He probably will be due to the fact that the Cowboys will have a top 5 offense while the Chiefs will have a bottom 5 offense.

Correct honest and simple answer.LJ is the better talent, MB has ridiculous support for success. QB, WRs, Oline, Defense to go along with natural ability is too much to overcome for LJ's value. Better talent normally reigns over situation, not in this case. We cannot deny the Dallas situation vs LJ lack of situation. MB's youth contributes greatly to any seperation between the Chiefs rb and America's RB.

 

[Sabertooth]

America's RB? Give me a break. Anything you say loses all credibility when you post stuff like that.

 

[Big Score]

LJ is the more talented RB, but as this is a team game & MBIII is not exactly without talent himself, I can't see how LJ puts up better numbers than MBIII...given their respective team situations.

For the record, you flip LJ to the Cowboys & MBIII to the Chiefs & I say LJ would have the better numbers.

 

[madsklz]

LJ is the more talented RB, but as this is a team game & MBIII is not exactly without talent himself, I can't see how LJ puts up better numbers than MBIII...given their respective team situations.For the record, you flip LJ to the Cowboys & MBIII to the Chiefs & I say LJ would have the better numbers.

I can completely agree with that statement. I think MB3 being in the better situation will pay off with bigger games

 

[Marc Levin]

Two words:

Herm Edwards.

LJ may get more opportunity, but he will consistently be put in situations that are tough to run through. MBIII has a legitimate shot at 10+ rushing TDs simply by being on the Cowboys offense. His talent should carry him to that mark as a minimum number.

I can not confidently say the same thing for LJ with Herm Edwards' offense, even when I factor in 20-25% or more touches.

Edit to add - and I see more 100 yard games on under 20 touches for MBII than I see the 25+ carries LJ will need to hit the 100 yard mark.

 

[TheFanatic]

LJ is the more talented RB, but as this is a team game & MBIII is not exactly without talent himself, I can't see how LJ puts up better numbers than MBIII...given their respective team situations.For the record, you flip LJ to the Cowboys & MBIII to the Chiefs & I say LJ would have the better numbers.

I can completely agree with that statement. I think MB3 being in the better situation will pay off with bigger games

Saying that and then predicting 2300 yards and 18 TD's is quite another. I mean, it takes that veritable first ballot HOFer Reggie Bush two seasons to compile stats you are predicting for MBIII in 2008!?!??

 

[Sabertooth]

LJ is the more talented RB, but as this is a team game & MBIII is not exactly without talent himself, I can't see how LJ puts up better numbers than MBIII...given their respective team situations.For the record, you flip LJ to the Cowboys & MBIII to the Chiefs & I say LJ would have the better numbers.

I can completely agree with that statement. I think MB3 being in the better situation will pay off with bigger games

This is the straw man that EBF proposed. He said talent was equal so situation wins. I say talent is not equal, but situation may or may not be enough to tilt the balance.

 

[Blackjacks]

LJ is the more talented RB, but as this is a team game & MBIII is not exactly without talent himself, I can't see how LJ puts up better numbers than MBIII...given their respective team situations.For the record, you flip LJ to the Cowboys & MBIII to the Chiefs & I say LJ would have the better numbers.

I can completely agree with that statement. I think MB3 being in the better situation will pay off with bigger games

Saying that and then predicting 2300 yards and 18 TD's is quite another. I mean, it takes that veritable first ballot HOFer Reggie Bush two seasons to compile stats you are predicting for MBIII in 2008!?!??

Reggie has 2305 all purpose yards....get it right.

 

[Moe Green]

I'm in a tough (though enviable, I guess) position. In a keep two league I have Gore, MBIII, and LJ. I'm really struggling to decide which two I should keep next season.

 

[super sleeper]

Bold, but possible. Did anyone predict Steven Jackson year from 2006? Did anyone know Priest Holmes would go off like he did in KC? I know the situation is rare, but my logic is this. The man runs like a possessed beast, and with the aforementioned pass attack, there should be more running lanes for him to burst through. I know out performing what he and Jones did last year may be a reach, but it's not like I said 1800 rushing yards, 28 TD's 500 receiving and 3 TD's. LT is a STUD, but could anyone of predicted those numbers? Now I am not saying MB3 is an LT2, but all I'm saying is the numbers may be a stretch, but they are possible.

As an MBIII owner, I hope your predictions come true, but I think the difference with his situation and SJax and Priest and even LJ in his prime is that those offenses were built around those backs. Similar to LT's situation. They were all all-down, all-situation backs in run-first offenses. I just don't see that in Dallas. He won't get as many carries, or be in in all those situations because Dallas has too many weapons and is no record as wanting to bring in another RB and WR. Given this, I would think that his numbers will be very similar to LJs. While MBIII's YPC might be significantly higher, LJs yardage and TD totals should be pretty close if he is healthy.

 

[Tanner9919]

With Larry Johnson coming back off injury and hopefully refreshed, I can see him putting up Larry Johnson type numbers again. With Barber "potentially" being the guy now, (minus Jerry doing something drastic in the draft) will be his first time as a full time starter. I would hope his numbers will increase, but now defenses will plan for him. Will either guy break down during the season?

Who puts up the better #'s??

My projections

Barber - 1700 yards rushing 15 TD's; 500 receiveing, 3 TD's

Johnson - 1200 yards rushing 10 TD's; 350 receiving, 2 TD's

KC was dead last in rushing yards last season, so there's only one way to go: up.I don't like Herm Edwards as a HC, but you cannot dispute the fact that the guy loves to run the ball. Cmart had career years under Herm in NY. I'm sure that LJ will have a HUGE 'bounce-back' season, as KC not only plays an easy schedule in 2008, but they have high draft picks they can use on o-linemen. With the NFL parity, a bad team one year, is usually a playoff team the following year, (unless you're the Raiders). They have some speed and a legit threat at WR now ( Bowe), and a new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey knows a thing or two about play calling:

"During his tenure in Pittsburgh, he was credited with implementing the “Slash” offense that featured the skills of multi-talented QB Kordell Stewart. With Gailey serving as a offensive coordinator in ‘96, Pittsburgh ranked second in the NFL in rushing, averaging 143.7 yards per game. The following season the Steelers led the league in rushing, pounding out 154.9 yards per game on the ground. During the ‘97 campaign, Pittsburgh ranked sixth in the NFL in total offense (346.4 ypg) and was seventh in scoring (23.3 ppg).

RB Jerome Bettis enjoyed the two most productive seasons of his career with Gailey serving as the Steelers offensive coordinator. Bettis totaled 1,431 ground yards in ‘96 and followed up that performance with a career-high 1,665 rushing yards in ‘97.

Gailey’s most recent stint as an NFL offensive coordinator came on Dave Wannstedt’s staff with Miami (2000-01). The Dolphins posted back-to-back 11-5 records and qualified for the playoffs in both of his seasons orchestrating that franchise’s offense.

The Dolphins averaged 118.4 rushing yards per game in 2000, the club’s best rushing output since ‘84. Miami ranked fifth in the NFL with a +15 turnover differential that season and tied for second in the league with just nine fumbles lost. In addition, his offensive unit tied for fifth in the NFL by only allowing 28.0 sacks. "

source: http://www.kcchiefs.com/coach/chan_gailey/

Lamar Smith had a career year under Gailey in 2000, compiling 1139 yards and 14 tds. LAMAR SMITH..Mr. Nobody! the guy never did anything before Gailey arrived in Miami..

I think for LJ, 1500 rush yards, 14-16 tds is about right for 2008..

As for Barber, I agree with other posters, in that Barber seems to be better served as a guy coming off the bench..I'm just not sure that he's a 345-carry RB..his running style is punishing, and eventually, thru 300+ carries, something going to give..I'm not going to predict an injury for him, but I do think his running style might be his Achilles' heel, with all that battering-ram type of stuff..

 

[thehornet]

I would take Barber. Similar talent on a much better offense usually = better numbers.

similiar talent? LJ smokes barber and it isnt even close. however, one plays for the boys and one plays for possibly the worst O-line in football.

 

[Banger]

I think for LJ, 1500 rush yards, 14-16 tds is about right for 2008..

I like LJ and own LJ but I don't see him sniffing near 14-16 tds', 12, maybe. It's not for his lack of talent it's his terrible team. As much as they'll want to run, if they've got a bottom 5 line like last year, it'll be tough sledding for LJ. Herm doesn't exactly make it difficult on the defense either with the suprising run 1st down, run 2nd down, pass 3rd down, punt playcalling. They have no QB, terrible line, good/very RB, one good but young wr, one good but aging TE and that's it. Not a lot to like at the present time. If they throw a boat load of OL picks in the draft and they seem to be working out in training camp things may change a little but as of now I'm not real high on LJ's prospects next year....

 

[madsklz]

Bold, but possible. Did anyone predict Steven Jackson year from 2006? Did anyone know Priest Holmes would go off like he did in KC? I know the situation is rare, but my logic is this. The man runs like a possessed beast, and with the aforementioned pass attack, there should be more running lanes for him to burst through. I know out performing what he and Jones did last year may be a reach, but it's not like I said 1800 rushing yards, 28 TD's 500 receiving and 3 TD's. LT is a STUD, but could anyone of predicted those numbers? Now I am not saying MB3 is an LT2, but all I'm saying is the numbers may be a stretch, but they are possible.

As an MBIII owner, I hope your predictions come true, but I think the difference with his situation and SJax and Priest and even LJ in his prime is that those offenses were built around those backs. Similar to LT's situation. They were all all-down, all-situation backs in run-first offenses. I just don't see that in Dallas. He won't get as many carries, or be in in all those situations because Dallas has too many weapons and is no record as wanting to bring in another RB and WR. Given this, I would think that his numbers will be very similar to LJs. While MBIII's YPC might be significantly higher, LJs yardage and TD totals should be pretty close if he is healthy.

I'm not sure I agree with the offense being built around SJAX. It may ge going that way, but when Sjax was going crazy at the end of the year, the Rams were still throwing the ball plenty as well.