Looking at the RB's after 3 weeks (1 Viewer)

[Banger]

At this point in the season everyone is (or should be) assessing the strength's/weakness's of their teams and look to make moves to improve their rosters. Looking at the point totals is always interesting but it doesn't tell the whole story since the sample size is so small and a players stats can be heavily skewed at this point due to the opponents they've faced. The move I like to make at this point is to try and identify and deal guys that have underpeformed based on SOS and look to deal for guys that have overperformed.

So I looked at the top 17 rb's and looked at the strength of schedule to try and assess who has under/over performed based on who they have played.

player (avg def. strength)

1. Westy (15)

2. Barber (19)

3. Jordan (25)

4. Addai (9)

5. Peterson (22)

6. R. Brown (13)

7. Portis (17)

8. James (14)

9. Parker (29)

10. Ward

11. Alexander (21)

12. Henry (26)

13. Lewis (19)

14. Foster

15. LT (9)

16. McGahee (21)

17 Gore (17)

So what does all this mean? A few things really jumped out at me both positively and negatively. On the positive Addai and Westy have both done very well against tough competition (especially Addai). LT has also played a much more difficult schedule than everyone ranked around him.

On the negative side Parker jumps off the page, he's only ranked 9th despite playing a dream schedule and the same goes for Henry. McGahee hasn't scored very well considering he's had a pretty favorable schedule. I'd also look to package Jordan before he plays a real defense.

To me the shark move is to target LT for a package including Parker or Henry.

 

[tietzjd]

I like the work you done.

I would Put Footnote on your thoughts of Parker.

In 2-3 games he saw little to no action in the 4th Qrt do huge leads by PItt.

 

[Banger]

I like the work you done. I would Put Footnote on your thoughts of Parker.In 2-3 games he saw little to no action in the 4th Qrt do huge leads by PItt.

It's true that he could have scored better but the basic point was to look at who they played. He's played the worst defenses in the league and it will get tougher and it's just something to keep in mind. I certainly wouldn't look to dump him but he wouldn't be untradable either. I'd move him for Addai/LT but chances are the Addai owner is happy as a clam right now whereas many LT owners may be mistakenly panicking...

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Not to argue the merits of attempting to go after LT when his perceived value is low, but how often has anyone seen an owner deal the 1st overall pick in their draft after only 3 weeks?

I totally agree if there ever were a time to approach the Tomlinson owners now is it, but I wouldn't bet my next paycheck on many of them being panicky enough to deal him yet. Even for a Parker.

 

[Banger]

Not to argue the merits of attempting to go after LT when his perceived value is low, but how often has anyone seen an owner deal the 1st overall pick in their draft after only 3 weeks?I totally agree if there ever were a time to approach the Tomlinson owners now is it, but I wouldn't bet my next paycheck on many of them being panicky enough to deal him yet. Even for a Parker.

I agree but each league is different and after this weekend's rash of injuries some teams may be forced into making some moves. If the LT owner is 3-0/2-1 don't waste your breath but if they are limping with some injuries with a record of 1-2/0-3 now is your time to put together a decent package and make a run at him.

 

[kensat30]

I just offered Parker + Kevin Curtis for LT in a standard scoring redraft.

Let's see if I get laughed at, will report back here.

EDIT:

Offered Parker + Roy Williams before opening day and was declined (Thank God).

 

[Banger]

I just offered Parker + Kevin Curtis for LT in a standard scoring redraft.Let's see if I get laughed at, will report back here.EDIT:Offered Parker + Roy Williams before opening day and was declined (Thank God).

it might be tough for an owner to bite on Curtis because he's only had one great week but it's worth a shot. I happen to love Curtis and got him late in every league I'm in but I just don't know that he has the trade value yet. After this weeks game vs. the Giants you might want to resend the offer if it gets turned down this week.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I'd be interested to see how Marshawn Lynch stacks up. He's done pretty well against some tough rush defenses.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

What this tells me is that both of my backs Parker and Henry have underperformed. I always thought that maybe I should be getting more.

Then I think about LT, SJax, and LJ owners and I think boy am I lucky.

And look at Gore on that list. One bad week and he's falling down.

What all of this tells me is that it is too early although I like the "trade for LT angle", but I'm pretty doubtful about it. Those owners know he's going to blow up soon and when he does they are going ot start winning.

 

[Banger]

What this tells me is that both of my backs Parker and Henry have underperformed. I always thought that maybe I should be getting more.Then I think about LT, SJax, and LJ owners and I think boy am I lucky.And look at Gore on that list. One bad week and he's falling down.What all of this tells me is that it is too early although I like the "trade for LT angle", but I'm pretty doubtful about it. Those owners know he's going to blow up soon and when he does they are going ot start winning.

I agree you have a limited window because once LT blows up he's off the block for the rest of the year.

 

[hauser42]

I like the work you done. I would Put Footnote on your thoughts of Parker.In 2-3 games he saw little to no action in the 4th Qrt do huge leads by PItt.

It's true that he could have scored better but the basic point was to look at who they played. He's played the worst defenses in the league and it will get tougher and it's just something to keep in mind. I certainly wouldn't look to dump him but he wouldn't be untradable either. I'd move him for Addai/LT but chances are the Addai owner is happy as a clam right now whereas many LT owners may be mistakenly panicking...

I have Parker in a couple of leagues and I dont see anything changing with him. He will stay the producing back that he has been so far this season. Steelers will be in some closer games so he will be getting touches in the 4th to run the clock out or punch in for the clinching score.LT owners should know he has faced some tough teams and he didnt set the world on fire till week 4 or so last year, most owners would love a shot at trading for LT but to get him it is going to take to very solid players and how many teams can take a hit at WR or QB to get one player? Replacing the other non RB spot in the trade will be hard to do.

 

[Banger]

I'd be interested to see how Marshawn Lynch stacks up. He's done pretty well against some tough rush defenses.

He's had one easy game - Denver (29th) and two tough ones Pitt (7th)/NE (5th). Week 1 was his 1st game as a pro and he got 90 and a touch. Right now he's ranked 18th and the defenses he's faced avg to be 14.

 

[quiksilver]

Isn't this pretty skewed when the overall rank of the players schedule is 1/3 attributable to that players own performance?

 

[Rounders]

Good topic Banger. Thanks for the hard work.

I'm making a play for LT in my league. He's on a 0-3 team, and I have some depth to offer up. I threw out Rudi/Fitz for LT. I know that it's risky, but I have the depth at RB (Henry/Lamont/Barber) and I can deal with Branch over Fitz as my WR2.

 

[Banger]

Isn't this pretty skewed when the overall rank of the players schedule is 1/3 attributable to that players own performance?

it is a chicken and egg scenario to some extent but if you look at the cast of characters at the top of the defense chart its the same as years past with the Ravens, Vikes, Eagles, Pats, Steelers, Chargers, etc. IMO, the defense generally dictates the production of the Rb's, not the other way around.

 

[Peter_Griffin]

On the negative side Parker jumps off the page, he's only ranked 9th despite playing a dream schedule and the same goes for Henry.

Parker is leading the NFL in rushing. He's gone over the 100 yard mark all 3 games and hasn't even had to play the whole game because the Steelers were winning by so much. His TDs will come too. He's a top 5 guy this year for sure.