Jene Bramel
Footballguy
The Gholston-Long thread is great, but I figured what the hell. 
Defensive Ends/Tackles/’Tweeners
In no particular order until after the draft, here’s one man’s opinion on the prospects of some of the higher profile DE/DT/RUSH prospects. Comparisons reflect upside (mostly) and are based on body type and approximate skill set.
Chris Long (6’3”, 272)
Long is technically sound in both primary facets of line play (run support and pass rush), has elite recognition skills, plays with leverage and has a relentless motor. About the only thing he’s missing is a full complement of edge rushing skills. Some sources feel that he’s inconsistently explosive off the ball and most note that he’s likely to struggle to beat offensive tackles on speed alone.
NFL comparisons: Justin Smith, Aaron Kampman, Mike Rucker v2001-03, Justin Tuck v2007
IDP upside/downside: Long appears to be a very safe bet to have a long and productive NFL career. Much of his IDP value will be depend on whether his speed/leverage combination is good enough to merely control the line of scrimmage in the NFL or dominate as a two way force. His technical skills would suggest that his value will be closer to that of Kampman than Smith – as a 4-3 end. Should he land in Miami, where he could play 3-4 end or OLB (or both), his value is even more uncertain. Parcells 2-gap 3-4 will kill any top 20 upside, unless he gets significant (and productive) snaps at OLB while still being listed as a DL by the league management sites. Should he land on a team where he can play 4-3 end and get some snaps as a DT isolated on a guard on passing downs, he could have Justin Tuck v2007 upside early in his career.
Vernon Gholston (6’3”, 266)
Gholston is this season’s athletic freak of nature. At 266 lbs with a 4.65 40 and 37 reps, he has a very interesting combination of speed and power. He’s got edge rushing skill, but has shown he can play with leverage and cover underneath, giving him potential value as both a 4-3 weak side end and 3-4 OLB. Some scouts have concerns with his level of consistency and his somewhat disappointing effort in LB drills at the combine.
NFL comparisons: John Abraham, Manny Lawson, Jason Taylor
IDP upside/downside: Gholston probably needs a significant majority of snaps as a 4-3 end to have IDP value in tackle neutral/heavy leagues. If he goes to a 3-4 team or a multiple front scheme and sees a lot of time as a LB, he’s unlikely to be well-rounded enough to produce consistent tackle/coverage numbers. Abraham looks like the best comparison. Lawson’s scouting reports, with the exception of strength and leverage numbers, read similar with respect to tweener skills.
Derrick Harvey (6’5”, 271)
Harvey is another athletic, powerful edge rushing type who has shown the ability to play with leverage. Reports suggest solid recognition skills and a pretty consistent motor. He’s even more controversial as a tweener LB prospect than Gholston, but could work if used mostly as a rush backer.
NFL comparisons: Mathias Kiwanuka, Gaines Adams, Jevon Kearse
IDP upside/downside: Harvey could be effective enough against the run as a 4-3 end to have good IDP value. None of the comparisons above are perfect. Kiwanuka is probably closest – long frame with some linebacker skills (okay against the run) but unlikely to succeed in coverage. Adams is probably a more consistent edge rushing type. And Harvey may look like Kearse but is likely to be more effective against the run. Like Gholston, Harvey isn’t likely to have any real value as a 3-4 OLB
Quentin Groves (6’3”, 259)
Groves reads like an elite edge rusher – explosive off the snap, agile, adept at using angles and has the closing speed to finish the play. There are questions as to whether he’s strong enough to handle DE in most 4-3 schemes and his athleticism should allow him to transition to a rush LB role in a 3-4/hybrid scheme.
NFL comparisons: Demarcus Ware, Terrell Suggs, Bryan Thomas
IDP upside/downside: A raw Ware may be the best comparison. Groves seems likely to end up as a 3-4 OLB, and, without the run stuffing capability or the coverage skills he’d need to hit reasonable solo tackle targets, isn’t likely to have much value in IDP leagues.
Philip Merling (6’4”, 276)
Merling is a guy to keep an eye on. His scouting report reads like many of the better IDP values. Good size, instinct, motor and showed he can play with leverage in college. Merling’s NFL success isn’t assured, though, as scouts have concerns about his strength (only 17 reps at the combine) and lack of an array of pass rush moves. Also coming off surgery for a sports hernia, which has kept him from working out on Pro Day at Clemson.
NFL comparisons: Reggie Hayward, Patrick Kerney, Kyle Vanden Bosch
IDP upside/downside: Merling may end up being the best IDP prospect in this class. Long, Gholston and Harvey could all end up in 3-4 or multiple front schemes and have scheme or positional designation kill their value. Merling has the motor and instincts of guys like Kerney and VDB, and has the two-way potential to blossom in his second or third season (and possibly sooner) if his strength catches up to his motor.
Lawrence Jackson (6’4”, 271)
Jackson’s scouting reports read like an enigma. Scouts praise his agility and quickness, then knock his change of direction skill. His 31 reps at the combine suggest above average strength and scouts are impressed with his intangibles, yet nearly every report notes inconsistency with leverage, pass rush and awareness. He appears to be the quintessential “could go either way” kind of talent.
NFL comparisons: Tamba Hali, Matt Roth, Kenechi Udeze
IDP upside/downside: Jackson seems like a decent bet to end up as a productive left end – solid tackle numbers and inconsistent pass rush. His intangibles and motor leave some room for improvement and upside, though, so he could be a guy that busts out of his scouting concerns.
Calais Campbell (6’8”, 290)
Campbell has sick potential. He’s got the athleticism of guys like Julius Peppers and Jared Allen and the size of a guy like Mario Williams. His scouting reports suggest he can be equally effective off the edge in pass rush and holding the point of attack against the run, though he looks more athletic than powerful.
NFL comparisons: Philip Daniels, Julius Peppers
IDP upside/downside: Campbell is another guy that looks the part but might struggle to put it all together. In the mirror, the comparison to Peppers looks good – long, powerful, athletic – but his career could follow either the Jekyll or Hyde portions of Peppers’ so far. If you read reports that he’s slimmed back down a bit and tearing up minicamps, be ready to take a well-considered flyer here.
Jason Jones (6’5”, 273)
Jones is explosive off the snap, athletic for his size and has shown up against the best competition. He needs improvement in his understanding of leverage and varying his pass rush moves. May have the ability to play 3-technique on nickel downs. Has gotten some looks as an OLB in post-draft workouts.
NFL comparisons: Adewale Ogunleye, Derrick Burgess, Greg White
IDP upside/downside: These are the guys that warrant very close monitoring in IDP leagues. Versatile, explosive rushers with the size to grow into solid run defenders can become the 45-10 players that anchor your roster. Keep on eye on his situation.
Others with upside in the right scheme/situation: Darrell Robertson, Jeremy Geathers, Jeremy Thompson, Chris Ellis, Kendall Langford
Glenn Dorsey (6’2”, 297)
Dorsey is powerful and explosive off the snap and has the recognition skills to disrupt running lanes. He wasn’t productive in college as a pass rusher despite his ability to penetrate and some scouts believe his pursuit skills don’t equal his first step.
NFL comparisons: Warren Sapp, Kevin Williams
IDP upside/downside: Dorsey might become one of the best run stopping tackles in the league. After reading his scouting reports, I’m not sure I buy the Sapp comparisons. Sapp regularly finished plays in the pocket and was relentless in pursuit. If Dorsey becomes more of a finisher, he’s likely to become an anchor in leagues that use DTs. He may anyway, but will have to beat double teams to make enough tackles.
Sedrick Ellis (6’1”, 309)
Ellis has a different body type than Dorsey, but similar explosion and power off the snap. Despite the shorter, squatter frame, most scouts seem to suggest Ellis has a wider array of counter moves, finishing skills and is more active in pursuit than Dorsey.
NFL comparisons: Rod Coleman, Kelly Gregg
IDP upside/downside: The scouting reports would suggest that Ellis might be the better box score player of the two stud DT prospects. If he lands an undertackle job, he’s got significant IDP upside, even in non-DT specific situations.
Other guys who could succeed in a 3-technique role: Kentwan Balmer, Dre’ Moore, Trevor Laws, Andre Fluellen
Defensive Ends/Tackles/’Tweeners
In no particular order until after the draft, here’s one man’s opinion on the prospects of some of the higher profile DE/DT/RUSH prospects. Comparisons reflect upside (mostly) and are based on body type and approximate skill set.
Chris Long (6’3”, 272)
Long is technically sound in both primary facets of line play (run support and pass rush), has elite recognition skills, plays with leverage and has a relentless motor. About the only thing he’s missing is a full complement of edge rushing skills. Some sources feel that he’s inconsistently explosive off the ball and most note that he’s likely to struggle to beat offensive tackles on speed alone.
NFL comparisons: Justin Smith, Aaron Kampman, Mike Rucker v2001-03, Justin Tuck v2007
IDP upside/downside: Long appears to be a very safe bet to have a long and productive NFL career. Much of his IDP value will be depend on whether his speed/leverage combination is good enough to merely control the line of scrimmage in the NFL or dominate as a two way force. His technical skills would suggest that his value will be closer to that of Kampman than Smith – as a 4-3 end. Should he land in Miami, where he could play 3-4 end or OLB (or both), his value is even more uncertain. Parcells 2-gap 3-4 will kill any top 20 upside, unless he gets significant (and productive) snaps at OLB while still being listed as a DL by the league management sites. Should he land on a team where he can play 4-3 end and get some snaps as a DT isolated on a guard on passing downs, he could have Justin Tuck v2007 upside early in his career.
Vernon Gholston (6’3”, 266)
Gholston is this season’s athletic freak of nature. At 266 lbs with a 4.65 40 and 37 reps, he has a very interesting combination of speed and power. He’s got edge rushing skill, but has shown he can play with leverage and cover underneath, giving him potential value as both a 4-3 weak side end and 3-4 OLB. Some scouts have concerns with his level of consistency and his somewhat disappointing effort in LB drills at the combine.
NFL comparisons: John Abraham, Manny Lawson, Jason Taylor
IDP upside/downside: Gholston probably needs a significant majority of snaps as a 4-3 end to have IDP value in tackle neutral/heavy leagues. If he goes to a 3-4 team or a multiple front scheme and sees a lot of time as a LB, he’s unlikely to be well-rounded enough to produce consistent tackle/coverage numbers. Abraham looks like the best comparison. Lawson’s scouting reports, with the exception of strength and leverage numbers, read similar with respect to tweener skills.
Derrick Harvey (6’5”, 271)
Harvey is another athletic, powerful edge rushing type who has shown the ability to play with leverage. Reports suggest solid recognition skills and a pretty consistent motor. He’s even more controversial as a tweener LB prospect than Gholston, but could work if used mostly as a rush backer.
NFL comparisons: Mathias Kiwanuka, Gaines Adams, Jevon Kearse
IDP upside/downside: Harvey could be effective enough against the run as a 4-3 end to have good IDP value. None of the comparisons above are perfect. Kiwanuka is probably closest – long frame with some linebacker skills (okay against the run) but unlikely to succeed in coverage. Adams is probably a more consistent edge rushing type. And Harvey may look like Kearse but is likely to be more effective against the run. Like Gholston, Harvey isn’t likely to have any real value as a 3-4 OLB
Quentin Groves (6’3”, 259)
Groves reads like an elite edge rusher – explosive off the snap, agile, adept at using angles and has the closing speed to finish the play. There are questions as to whether he’s strong enough to handle DE in most 4-3 schemes and his athleticism should allow him to transition to a rush LB role in a 3-4/hybrid scheme.
NFL comparisons: Demarcus Ware, Terrell Suggs, Bryan Thomas
IDP upside/downside: A raw Ware may be the best comparison. Groves seems likely to end up as a 3-4 OLB, and, without the run stuffing capability or the coverage skills he’d need to hit reasonable solo tackle targets, isn’t likely to have much value in IDP leagues.
Philip Merling (6’4”, 276)
Merling is a guy to keep an eye on. His scouting report reads like many of the better IDP values. Good size, instinct, motor and showed he can play with leverage in college. Merling’s NFL success isn’t assured, though, as scouts have concerns about his strength (only 17 reps at the combine) and lack of an array of pass rush moves. Also coming off surgery for a sports hernia, which has kept him from working out on Pro Day at Clemson.
NFL comparisons: Reggie Hayward, Patrick Kerney, Kyle Vanden Bosch
IDP upside/downside: Merling may end up being the best IDP prospect in this class. Long, Gholston and Harvey could all end up in 3-4 or multiple front schemes and have scheme or positional designation kill their value. Merling has the motor and instincts of guys like Kerney and VDB, and has the two-way potential to blossom in his second or third season (and possibly sooner) if his strength catches up to his motor.
Lawrence Jackson (6’4”, 271)
Jackson’s scouting reports read like an enigma. Scouts praise his agility and quickness, then knock his change of direction skill. His 31 reps at the combine suggest above average strength and scouts are impressed with his intangibles, yet nearly every report notes inconsistency with leverage, pass rush and awareness. He appears to be the quintessential “could go either way” kind of talent.
NFL comparisons: Tamba Hali, Matt Roth, Kenechi Udeze
IDP upside/downside: Jackson seems like a decent bet to end up as a productive left end – solid tackle numbers and inconsistent pass rush. His intangibles and motor leave some room for improvement and upside, though, so he could be a guy that busts out of his scouting concerns.
Calais Campbell (6’8”, 290)
Campbell has sick potential. He’s got the athleticism of guys like Julius Peppers and Jared Allen and the size of a guy like Mario Williams. His scouting reports suggest he can be equally effective off the edge in pass rush and holding the point of attack against the run, though he looks more athletic than powerful.
NFL comparisons: Philip Daniels, Julius Peppers
IDP upside/downside: Campbell is another guy that looks the part but might struggle to put it all together. In the mirror, the comparison to Peppers looks good – long, powerful, athletic – but his career could follow either the Jekyll or Hyde portions of Peppers’ so far. If you read reports that he’s slimmed back down a bit and tearing up minicamps, be ready to take a well-considered flyer here.
Jason Jones (6’5”, 273)
Jones is explosive off the snap, athletic for his size and has shown up against the best competition. He needs improvement in his understanding of leverage and varying his pass rush moves. May have the ability to play 3-technique on nickel downs. Has gotten some looks as an OLB in post-draft workouts.
NFL comparisons: Adewale Ogunleye, Derrick Burgess, Greg White
IDP upside/downside: These are the guys that warrant very close monitoring in IDP leagues. Versatile, explosive rushers with the size to grow into solid run defenders can become the 45-10 players that anchor your roster. Keep on eye on his situation.
Others with upside in the right scheme/situation: Darrell Robertson, Jeremy Geathers, Jeremy Thompson, Chris Ellis, Kendall Langford
Glenn Dorsey (6’2”, 297)
Dorsey is powerful and explosive off the snap and has the recognition skills to disrupt running lanes. He wasn’t productive in college as a pass rusher despite his ability to penetrate and some scouts believe his pursuit skills don’t equal his first step.
NFL comparisons: Warren Sapp, Kevin Williams
IDP upside/downside: Dorsey might become one of the best run stopping tackles in the league. After reading his scouting reports, I’m not sure I buy the Sapp comparisons. Sapp regularly finished plays in the pocket and was relentless in pursuit. If Dorsey becomes more of a finisher, he’s likely to become an anchor in leagues that use DTs. He may anyway, but will have to beat double teams to make enough tackles.
Sedrick Ellis (6’1”, 309)
Ellis has a different body type than Dorsey, but similar explosion and power off the snap. Despite the shorter, squatter frame, most scouts seem to suggest Ellis has a wider array of counter moves, finishing skills and is more active in pursuit than Dorsey.
NFL comparisons: Rod Coleman, Kelly Gregg
IDP upside/downside: The scouting reports would suggest that Ellis might be the better box score player of the two stud DT prospects. If he lands an undertackle job, he’s got significant IDP upside, even in non-DT specific situations.
Other guys who could succeed in a 3-technique role: Kentwan Balmer, Dre’ Moore, Trevor Laws, Andre Fluellen
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