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Football Guy
Member # 2742 posted 07-19-2001 12:11 AM
It has been my experience in my short, yet successful, FF campaign that one of the hardest things to do in an auction draft is properly assign dollar values to your players. I toyed with this idea a bit, and by standing on strong shoulders, such as Joe, and others, I came up with a system that takes VBD to a new level - but is still based upon the principles that make VBD so simple, elegant, and successful.
I've drafted in an auction draft both years that I've been playing FF. I was skillful/lucky enough to win it all my first year - and was runner-up in both leagues I took part in last year.
Much of the credit must be given to Joe - for finding his principles of VBD are what really set me apart from every owner in my leagues in the first place.
What I do is this:
Using an excel spreadsheet, I generate stat projections for every player in the positions we draft (in this case, WR-QB-RB-TE-PK-ST). I do this seperately for each position for a few reasons which will become apparent shortly. Then I filter the stats through my league scoring system, which generates projected league scoring. Then using a baseline of the lowest scoring player I expect to be drafted at each position (see below on how to do this), I generate a "value" for every player at every position.
SOUND FAMILIAR?? IT SHOULD. THIS IS WHERE I TAKE IT A STEP FURTHER.
In an auction draft, those with savvy go into the draft with ideas of what they want to pay for individual players. These owners will frequently come out ahead. What I do is make determining the dollar values as easy as determining the scoring value. Don't rely on your gut - let the math do the work for you.
Once you have all of your players with values assigned to them, cut and paste them all onto one spreadsheet - make sure to line up the values so that they all line up. Then sort them based on the values. Now you have a simple draft cheat cheet. What next? Start a new column for "$value". Then sort everyone by position. Assign every player you believe will be drafted a $value of your minimum bid (in my case $1). This number should equal the number of teams in your league*the number of players on each team. Some leagues don't limit the number of players in a certain group, so you'll want to judge as best you can how many QB's, RB's, WR's, etc. each team will draft. For example, in a 10 team league you may have 30 QB's drafted (some folks like me, typically carry 3 QB's) and 40 RB's (4 RB's per team) at any rate, the final number must equal your roster limits.
Once this is done, resort by dollar value, then position. This will put seperate drafted players from non-drafted players and sort them by position. Then, add up the total $ to be spent in your league (my league has a $250 cap with 10 owners = $2500. Subtract the number you've assigned already (I have a roster limit of 18 per team * 10 teams * $1 = $180; subtract $180 from $2500 = $2320) this is what you have remaining to allocate to players.
Next, add up the total # of "value" points. Divide your dollars remaining by this number. The value you get (which should be under 1.00) is how much, in dollars, each point of value is worth. WOW!! (in my case this was 0.241616 or $0.24 per point of value)
Now multiply this number * the "value" of each player (don't forget to add the $1 already allocated) and you have a maximum $ value to spend on any individual player!! If you've done this right you should get your total league cap if you add up all of the projected salaries together.
This really works, and has REALLY helped me in my drafts because I can print it all out and sort it any way I like.
Here's some tips:
1) color code your players by position - very helpful, and really lets you see the value distribution positionally. You can adjust strategies on the fly.
2) add colums for 90%, 80%, and 70% of value. I usually try to get 80% or better value on all but my most coveted players.
One thing I did this year was attempt to account for starters. Starting players should have, on average, slightly higher values than non-starters, since, barring injury, they are the ones you should pay slightly more to get.
The method I used is imperfect but seems to have worked rather well. I sorted again based on $value then position. Then I created another column, "starter value". In this column, I created another value using a baseline derived from the lowest scoring starter at each position. Multiply this number by the decimal you used to create your original $value from ($0.241616). You should get another $value. Add this value to each starter (I added a minimum of $1 to those starters who ended up adding less that $1).
Then what I did was subtract the total number of dollars I added to projected starters from the non-starters at each position (remember, your total $'s spent must equal the total cap room of all teams). I did this by muliplying the negative value of nonstarters by the $0.241616 per point of value (starter value * 0.241616) this gave me a negative dollar amount, which I subtracted from each player's $value. Since no player could go under $1, I had a few dollars left to remove, which I removed from the bottom up and removed based on players I felt deserved the cut.
Obviously, I like stats and I like to play with these numbers. But this system has REALLY helped me in my auction drafts. Reading this, it sounds difficult, but once you play with it, it's quite easy, since many of the formulas can be cut and pasted in excel. I hope someone finds value in this and if anyone has suggestions, I'd love to hear them.
During the draft, I simply bid on just about every player, but I never go above the 70% $value except for those players I really feel I need - and I NEVER go over my max. Worst case scenario is I get a player I perhaps didn't REALLY want at very good value. Best scenario is that I get a GREAT player at GREAT value. -Or maybe someone else gets a player at much higher than they ever should have gone for. Any way you shake it, you come out ahead.
If anyone has questions, or would like further explanation, I'll be happy to help you. I'll even send you a copy of my the draft sheet I created - for educational purposes of course, since the numbers I created will be so different than what your leagues rules will dictate.
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OUT
Bronx cheer to that strat.
