http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ys-a...o&type=lgns
Simulation based forecasting & methodology: AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
The Broncos won again and in the process saw their playoff chances jump 27 percent. Even though they have a 65.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, this is significantly lower other 4-0 teams. AccuScore simulations indicate that the Chargers still have just a good a chance of winning the AFC West as Denver. The Chiefs and Raiders saw minor changes in their playoff probability because their overall chances of making the playoffs were just 4.6 percent combined heading into Week 4. Now they have just a 1.8 percent chance after just one month.
The Steelers saw their chances improve by 16 points because they beat a potential wild-card competitor in San Diego and the Ravens lost to the Patriots. The Bengals beat the Browns on the road, but their playoff probability only improved slightly because they were “supposed” to win this game and their overall unimpressive performance, especially their run defense, does not bode well for them going forward.
The Jaguars have surprised many with two strong wins over division rivals. AccuScore did project them to win eight games this season and they are showing signs of living up to this relatively high expectation. If Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) holds up all season as the primary running back and David Garrard(notes) continues to limit interceptions, the Jaguars can keep their playoff chances alive most of the season. They improved their chances by nearly 13 points. Their improvement is more than off-set by the Titans minus-16 percentage point decline. The “mighty” Titans now have just a 17-percent chance of making the playoffs. The Texans beat the Raiders but their playoff chances declined because the Jaguars’ unexpected success.
The Dolphins may not be in as bad a shape as some might think. Their running game is dominating and their defense has the talent to be a top-eight unit. If Chad Henne(notes) does not turn the ball over, this team could certainly create problems for a number of playoff contenders. The Dolphins still only have an 11-percent chance of making the playoffs, but considering they are one late Peyton Manning(notes) drive away from being 2-2 they should not lose hope in Miami. The Jets dropped 15 percentage points not only because they lost to the Saints, but Mark Sanchez(notes) is expected to have turnover problems the rest of the season as increasingly bad weather and a tough schedule could make things difficult. However, the Jets still are serious playoff contenders even with the decline.
AFC Week 5 review Playoff perc. chance
Team Wk 4 Wk 5 Perc. Diff. Win Div.
Denver Broncos 38.5% 65.6% 27.1% 48.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers 47.9% 63.8% 15.9% 25.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars 15.6% 28.5% 12.9% 2.1%
New England Patriots 64.6% 75.5% 10.9% 58.6%
Miami Dolphins 9.2% 11.1% 1.9% 5.8%
Cincinnati Bengals 25.1% 26.4% 1.3% 7.3%
Indianapolis Colts 98.0% 98.8% 0.8% 96.7%
Cleveland Browns 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% 0.0%
Kansas City Chiefs 1.5% 0.8% -0.6% 0.5%
Oakland Raiders 3.1% 1.0% -2.0% 0.4%
Houston Texans 16.7% 11.4% -5.3% 1.1%
Baltimore Ravens 93.3% 87.7% -5.5% 67.4%
Buffalo Bills 15.1% 5.4% -9.7% 2.1%
New York Jets 70.9% 55.8% -15.1% 33.5%
San Diego Chargers 83.0% 67.0% -16.0% 50.4%
Tennessee Titans 17.4% 1.1% -16.3% 0.1%
NFC
The Giants improved nearly 13 percentage points despite only beating the lowly Chiefs. They improved more than expected because a potential playoff competitor, Dallas, lost to the Broncos. With Dallas already two games behind, the NFC East could end up being a two-team race instead of a three-team race. The Eagles were on a bye and saw their playoff chances virtually unchanged, while the Redskins only improved 0.5 percent following their three-point home win over winless Tampa Bay.
The 49ers won again. Coupled with Seattle’s loss, the 49ers saw a healthy 7.6 percent increase. The statistics indicate that the 49ers have an elite defense that should keep them in every game of the season. The Cardinals were on a bye week. They need to beat Houston at home next week or they could see a large drop-off in next week’s playoff forecast because they have already lost to the 49ers at home.
The Packers saw their playoff chances drop minus-6.3 percent and their drop-off benefited the Bears and Vikings equally. The Vikings are the clear-cut favorite to win the NFC North. While the Bears are technically second to the Packers, Green Bay still has a healthy 45-percent chance of making the playoffs because of their first week win over Chicago.
The Saints keep rolling thanks to a great running game and defense. Their playoff chances are now close to 95 percent. They are especially strong because what was supposed to be a three-team race in the division is now just a two-team race between the Saints and Falcons. Tampa Bay is also worst than expected. In preseason forecasts the Bucs averaged six wins, but they now appear to be a two- or three-win team.
NFC Week 5 review Playoff Perc. chance
Team Wk 4 Wk 5 Perc. diff. Win div.
New York Giants 69.2% 81.8% 12.6% 58.9%
San Francisco 49ers 68.5% 76.1% 7.6% 73.7%
New Orleans Saints 90.3% 94.6% 4.3% 86.1%
Chicago Bears 45.5% 48.0% 2.5% 13.3%
Minnesota Vikings 91.0% 93.1% 2.1% 76.9%
Washington Redskins 3.8% 4.3% 0.5% 1.2%
Philadelphia Eagles 57.4% 57.8% 0.4% 31.7%
Carolina Panthers 1.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.7%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Lions 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
St. Louis Rams 0.3% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
Arizona Cardinals 27.4% 27.1% -0.3% 22.3%
Atlanta Falcons 42.4% 39.6% -2.8% 13.2%
Seattle Seahawks 8.1% 4.5% -3.6% 4.0%
Green Bay Packers 50.9% 44.7% -6.3% 9.7%
Dallas Cowboys 43.3% 26.5% -16.8% 8.2%
