Looking really bad. Which offenses will stink? (1 Viewer)

[daveR]

Some offenses look like they're making progress, like Buf, Cle, and a couple others. What I'm looking for here are the teams you want your DEF matched up against.

So far, looks like OAK, NYJ will be solid contributors to the DEFs they play. Who else looks REALLY crappy?

.

Update Monday afternoon after week 2.

Exploit: JAX, NYJ, OAK, PIT, CLE, CAR, TEN,

Avoid: GB, NO, HOU, CHI, PHI,

.

Update (from FUBAR's post, 8/26/13): Update 9/5 (move TB up to mid)

Bottom tier: OAK, NYJ, SD, JAX,

Near Bottom: PIT, CLE, CAR, MIA, MIN, TEN, STL, BUF

Mid-range: BAL, CIN, DAL, WAS, CHI, IND, NYG, ARI, PHI, TB,

Good: DET, NE, ATL, SEA, SF, HOU, KC

Top: GB, NO, DEN,

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Good thread here on the subject.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=685089&hl=offense

 

[daveR]

Yep. Read that thread awhile ago. After picking through the whining, it still doesn't really get to the nitty gritty.

Do JAX, CAR, ARI, MIA, PIT, MIN all belong on the "abysmal" tier? PHI was mentioned a lot, but does anyone think they're gonna suck? What about TEN, or TB?

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I took Phi off my list until I see how that offense looks. It could take defenses some time to adjust if the uptempo thing is really different. I am one of the people who thinks Palmer is under-rated, so I would not put AZ on the list, either. Most of others you listed I would not categorize as abysmal (Oak, Jets and Jax seem most likely), but are ones I was willing to have my defense play when I went through the schedule looking for Ds. At this point anyway. Too hard to predict in pre-season...but it is all we have!

 

[mjr]

JETS: I don't think the Jets will be as awful as most predict. I'm not saying they'll surprise or be any good of course, but I remember how bad they looked last pre-season when putting up only 12 points was considered a breakthrough achievement for that offense, they didn't win one game and everyone thought they'd be the worst in the league. Then they came out week one and scored 48 points. A few weeks later they put up 35 against Indy. That said, even being a Jets fan I don't expect more than 5 or 6 wins out of these guys and I feel pretty confident starting Tampa's D against them week one.

OAKLAND: Jeez..I don't even know what to say about them. Flynn looked awful in the Chicago game. He wasn't pressured in the pocket and his intended receiver D. Moore was literally standing still facing Flynn ready for the catch... and Flynn still chucked the ball 5 yards short on a 20 yard toss for his first INT. Then he throws it behind his target on another 20-ish yard pass for his second INT. I'll start ANY D against these guys.

BUFFALO: This is a team I can see struggling the most to put points up all year long. Change can be a good thing, but I think they went too far with it this off-season. New QBs, New WR(s), Stevie not 100%...again. Jackson not there either. Spiller is going to have to carry this team. Ds know it and they'll be ready for it. It's going to be a lot of trial by fire for the Bills this year.

PHILLY: I don't believe they'll stink across the board, but I do think we're going to see a lot of wild success and just horrid, miserable failures throughout the year, hell, even throughout each game for the Eagles in 2013. I don't think they'll be bad enough to the point where you'd automatically start a D against them week in and week out, but you could probably go with favorable match-ups on Ds that have solid run stopping and an average+ secondary (Denver, Packers... I think Tampa will qualify with a better secondary this year, etc.).

TENNESSEE: I'm wondering if Munchak finally figured out that whatever his plan was for this team coming in....isn't working, and that he realizes he's just going to have to go along with being a run-first team after all. I'm skeptical that they have made the required improvements to the line to do it this year (next year more likely), but they might surprise. This would be another match-up start IMO. I don't think you can go all too wrong putting the league's best run Ds up against these guys.

 

[Shawn]

I am going to pick whatever defense faces Oakland every week in fan duel, Flynn looked pathetic. And to think the seahawks almost gave him the start. Thank god for Russell Wilson!

 

[daveR]

Though PHI looked bad last year, they have a new offense and several O-lineman who have come back from injury. I regard Vick as a guy I'd take a significant chance on. BUF has played no-huddle thoughout the preseason, or so I've read. Can't say how well they'll do, especially with a rookie QB.

I'm going to say bottom tier should be OAK, NYJ, and JAX.

Next tier: CAR, MIA, PIT, MIN, TEN, TB. ( Looking for input )

Where do you expect ARI, KC, CLE, BUF, DAL, CHI, etc.?

 

[SameSongNDance]

Jets fan here, I think we're going to be awful. I'm pretty much convinced at this point that Ivory won't last the entire year and he's the lone bright spot on the offense talent wise. I'm not terribly excited with either Sanchez or Geno, Hill can't catch and Braylon is on the bubble. I like Kerely and Powell but that doesn't mean much.

 

[jurb26]

Jets

Jags

Raiders

Cards

 

[daveR]

Jets

Jags

Raiders

Cards

I'm a fan of Carson Palmer. He throws a magnificent deep ball. They should improve a lot!

 

[FUBAR]

Though PHI looked bad last year, they have a new offense and several O-lineman who have come back from injury. I regard Vick as a guy I'd take a significant chance on. BUF has played no-huddle thoughout the preseason, or so I've read. Can't say how well they'll do, especially with a rookie QB.

I'm going to say bottom tier should be OAK, NYJ, and JAX.

Next tier: CAR, MIA, PIT, MIN, TEN, TB. ( Looking for input )

Where do you expect ARI, KC, CLE, BUF, DAL, CHI, etc.?

I think the jags surprise. nothing great, but some good games.

Carolina and Miami will be jeckyl and hyde, huge games followed by ugly. Buffalo may be the same when Manuel returns.

Browns, chiefs and cardinals should be roughly average.

 

[ponchsox]

Jax will score points because their defense is epically bad and hey have some talent on the offensive side (MJD, Shorts, Blakmon)

 

[daveR]

Is the NYG O-line going to have problems all year, or are the injuries short-term?

 

[Beerguzzler]

Only truly awful offenses right now IMO are the Jets and the Raiders. Absolutely brutal and really don't seem to have any hope for improving this season.

 

[Ilov80s]

Can't be worse than the Jets. This game has been one of the more embarrassing performances I can remember in awhile. Geno Smith is running out of the back of the endzone, Sanchez working with the 4th stringers can't throw a 5 yard screen without hitting his own OL in the butt.

 

[AllVolUT]

Disappointed San Diego hasn't been mentioned yet. Between them and Oakland, the AFC West easily has two of the bottom 5 NFL teams/offenses IMO. Adds value to Denver defense...

 

[daveR]

Disappointed San Diego hasn't been mentioned yet. Between them and Oakland, the AFC West easily has two of the bottom 5 NFL teams/offenses IMO. Adds value to Denver defense...

Just stopped back in to ask about the Boltz. What's the problem there?

 

[daveR]

Browns looked pretty pedestrian tonight. They've been getting raves, so far, here in Cleveland. Not impressed tonight vs IND.

 

[TwinTurbo]

The Jets offense is awful. None of their starters would start for any other team except Oakland which is also awful.

 

[AllVolUT]

Disappointed San Diego hasn't been mentioned yet. Between them and Oakland, the AFC West easily has two of the bottom 5 NFL teams/offenses IMO. Adds value to Denver defense...

Just stopped back in to ask about the Boltz. What's the problem there?

Recently updated FBG offensive line rankings has SD as dead last...who's job is to block for a brittle RB and protect a average-to-below-average starting QB...who's job is to pass the ball to a bottom 5 WR core.

No offense (pun intended) to Charger fans, but count me out of investing in that offense.

 

[Donnybrook]

Browns looked pretty pedestrian tonight. They've been getting raves, so far, here in Cleveland. Not impressed tonight vs IND.

I know that home field advantage plays a big role in the regular season but it has been huge so far in this preseason. Might be a coincidence but Detriot, Cleveland, New England and Buffalo looked great at home and then looked like different teams on the road.

 

[FlapJacks]

SD looks like a mess

Pitt lose wallace, Heath miller still recovering, OLine is a mess, RB situation is a mess...Roeth wil still make stuff happen, but could be tough...

 

[daveR]

SD looks like a mess

Pitt lose wallace, Heath miller still recovering, OLine is a mess, RB situation is a mess...Roeth wil still make stuff happen, but could be tough...

I thought their O-line would come together once everyone was healthy again. Doesn't look much better than last year, so far.

 

[Shawn]

Matt Flynn looks terrible out there as a starter...

 

[daveR]

So, we will add SD to the bottom tier. How do the Chefs look these days?

 

[daveR]

Bottom tier: OAK, NYJ, SD, JAX, TB,

Near Bottom: PIT, CLE, CAR, MIA, MIN, TEN, STL

Mid-range: BAL, CIN, DAL, WAS, CHI, IND, NYG,

Good: DET, NE, ATL, SEA, SF, HOU,

Top: GB, NO, DEN,

Unknown: BUF, PHI, KC, ARI,

 

[jurb26]

Unknown: BUF, PHI, KC, ARI,

I think we know Arz is going to be bad. They just lost their 1st round pick at G and the oline was already shaping up to be bellow average prior to that.

 

[meyerj31]

Unknown: BUF, PHI, KC, ARI,

I think we know Arz is going to be bad. They just lost their 1st round pick at G and the oline was already shaping up to be bellow average prior to that.

Yea, not looking too good in the desert. Mendenhall down and Cooper out for the year. Brutal.

 

[Man of Zen]

Unknown: BUF, PHI, KC, ARI,

I think we know Arz is going to be bad. They just lost their 1st round pick at G and the oline was already shaping up to be bellow average prior to that.

Yea, not looking too good in the desert. Mendenhall down and Cooper out for the year. Brutal.

Crappy line? Running game scuttled by fragility and uncertainty? Carson Palmer at the helm?

Why, it's Oakland with better receivers!

 

[Shutout]

Unknown: BUF, PHI, KC, ARI,

I think we know Arz is going to be bad. They just lost their 1st round pick at G and the oline was already shaping up to be bellow average prior to that.

Yea, not looking too good in the desert. Mendenhall down and Cooper out for the year. Brutal.

Crappy line? Running game scuttled by fragility and uncertainty? Carson Palmer at the helm?

Why, it's Oakland with better receivers!

That was funny AND true.

 

[joffer]

Jax is gonna be better than people think.

 

[cubbie5150]

Jax is gonna be better than people think.

Agree. It'll be a mistake to just blindly start any ol' DST against them

 

[Insein]

Jets and Raiders are the bottom rung. I will be trying to play stream defense all year with their opponents.

Next tier will be Buffalo, Minnesota, and I'll throw San Diego in there as a wild card terrible offense.

 

[Insein]

Unknown: BUF, PHI, KC, ARI,

I think we know Arz is going to be bad. They just lost their 1st round pick at G and the oline was already shaping up to be bellow average prior to that.

Yea, not looking too good in the desert. Mendenhall down and Cooper out for the year. Brutal.

Crappy line? Running game scuttled by fragility and uncertainty? Carson Palmer at the helm?Why, it's Oakland with better receivers!

That was funny AND true.

The sheer fact that Palmer is not Kolb et al will improve Arizona.

 

[FUBAR]

Bottom tier: OAK, NYJ, SD, JAX, TB,

Near Bottom: PIT, CLE, CAR, MIA, MIN, TEN, STL, BUF

Mid-range: BAL, CIN, DAL, WAS, CHI, IND, NYG, ARI, PHI

Good: DET, NE, ATL, SEA, SF, HOU, KC

Top: GB, NO, DEN,

Blue are my guesses for your unknowns. green I think you underrate, red I'd downgrade.

 

[daveR]

Bottom tier: OAK, NYJ, SD, JAX, TB,

Near Bottom: PIT, CLE, CAR, MIA, MIN, TEN, STL, BUF

Mid-range: BAL, CIN, DAL, WAS, CHI, IND, NYG, ARI, PHI

Good: DET, NE, ATL, SEA, SF, HOU, KC

Top: GB, NO, DEN,

Blue are my guesses for your unknowns. green I think you underrate, red I'd downgrade.

Thanks!

Anybody else?

 

[iamkoza]

nice thread, can you update the first post to make the current estimates easier to find?

 

[Beerguzzler]

SD was 20th in scoring last season. If they weren't bottom 5 last season with that god awful O line, it's not going to happen this season.

 

[Insein]

SD was 20th in scoring last season. If they weren't bottom 5 last season with that god awful O line, it's not going to happen this season.

Another year older and learning a new offense. Id say the potential is there.

 

[ATSS_0100]

Jets and Raiders are the bottom rung. I will be trying to play stream defense all year with their opponents.

Next tier will be Buffalo, Minnesota, and I'll throw San Diego in there as a wild card terrible offense.

I'd co-sign that

 

[Shawn]

matt flynn: career backup...

 

[Wise Old Owl]

SD was 20th in scoring last season. If they weren't bottom 5 last season with that god awful O line, it's not going to happen this season.

SD Oline has actually looked respectable this season, people underestimate how good Rivers is if he has any time, hes just terrible under pressure. River's has been productive with nameless receivers before. 2010 he had 4.7k/30td with Malcom Floyd leading wr's with 700yds. If Mathews stays healthy this team is going to hard pressed to finish bottom 5

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Fluker is a good upgrade to SD running game which should help take some of the pressure off of Rivers and enable the play action. But there are still issues there.

Based on how people rank the Vikings this maybe should be changed to good passing offenses.

 

[Marvelous]

My quick thoughts:

Philly - big wild card here. Chip Kelley's offense may sizzle or it could totally bomb out. Personally, I think bombing out is more likely, especially if Vick gets injured.

Buffalo - they have had a lot of injuries and they are also installing a new offense. They could be pretty bad.

Washington - they had a good offense last year. I am expecting better this year. They should be good and could approach top tier. They will be good even with Cousin at qb.

Cleveland - will be much improved. Every Norv Turner team (either as HC or OC) has done well. They should be at least average this year.

 

[fantasycurse42]

San DIego and NYJ will be displaying awfulness at its finest. Rivers hasn't been good in a few years and now has absolutely nobody there, tough combo.

The Jets have a group of the most un-skilled "skilled" positions in the NFL - Put a rookie QB in there who hasn't been impressive to begin with, that spells trouble!

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Tampa was 9th last year in yards. Did they lose something vital to be dropped to the bottom of the barrel?

 

[jurb26]

Tampa was 9th last year in yards. Did they lose something vital to be dropped to the bottom of the barrel?

Yeah, 2 no name Olinemen for 2 Pro Bowl Olinemen...

 

[The Duff Man]

I heard Buffalo described as a high variance team and I like that description.

Pros: Coaching - I cannot overstate how bad a coach Gailey is. This team had a lot more talent last year than what showed up on the field Sunday. There is a new sense of excitement.

Speed and Hurry Up - last year they had a consistent receiving threat and superstar RB held back by a coach who wouldnt put his best player (Spiller) on the field unless he had to and a QB who couldnt get the ball downfield. Replace that with a forward thinking offensive coach, new possession and speed threats at WR and a new QB (can he get it downfield?). If he can, opponents might get gassed chasing these track stars around the field.

Surprise: I dont think anyone knows exactly what the Bills are going to do, throw out all the tape from last year and get ready for the unknown.

Cons: Rookie QB with no backup who missed practice time with injury....gulp....

If they click, I really think they will be in the 8-16 ranking for offense.

If they dont click and Manuel struggles they will have a lot of fast three and outs and be in big trouble. The coaching staff does have an ace in the hole with Spiller and can fall back on him heavily if Manuel struggles.

 

[daveR]

Tampa was 9th last year in yards. Did they lose something vital to be dropped to the bottom of the barrel?

Yeah, 2 no name Olinemen for 2 Pro Bowl Olinemen...

So... bump them up to mid-range?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Bottom tier: OAK, NYJ, SD, JAX, TB,

Near Bottom: PIT, CLE, CAR, MIA, MIN, TEN, STL

Mid-range: BAL, CIN, DAL, WAS, CHI, IND, NYG,

Good: DET, NE, ATL, SEA, SF, HOU,

Top: GB, NO, DEN,

Unknown: BUF, PHI, KC, ARI,

I think it's still too early. The only team we can really count on being in that bottom tier is Oakland. I'd say NYJ, BUF, SD, KC, AZ all have potential to emerge.

STL, CHI, CLE & PHI could all be doing very well mid-year. PIT will do some damage.

In the end Oakland might be the only one that falls under the thread title of which "stink." They're on some kind of mission.