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***Los Angeles Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals***(+4) 48.5u Super Bowl LVI Stafford-Burrow, Kupp-Chase, OBJ-Higgins, Mixon-Akers (2 Viewers)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Alright! Alirght! Alright!

We roll on to the Super Bowl and the final piece of the puzzle will be revealed this Sunday in Los Angeles, my former home town and site of the Stafford-Burrow showdown, battle of No 1 overall picks. 

-Cinci is the home team and here is where the Cinderella shoe is going to slide off for some. I have posted repeatedly that Cinci has lost 3 road games this year by a total of about 11 points 5-3-3 and so if you feel this is a road game then you take the points and feel good that Cinci will pull off the upset. 

-However...Cinci is not the road team, in fact the NFL has made them the home team as ridiculous as that may be.  They are technically a Home Dog to the tune of 4 points right now and...they weren't home dogs all that much this season, not sure what they were favored if at all vs LA Chargers but they got whooped pretty good that week. 

-Bengals remind me of a 2nd year phenom from Miami that had a couple of aces at WR in Duper n Clayton, it reminds me a lot of Chase and Higgins and the stir they have all caused this year. 

-I find the '84 Phins and '22 Bengals similar and while I hope for a much better game than what the '84 Miami-SF game offered, I see some similarities that make me flinch and therefore I must take the Rams. And unfortunately the MoP gut says it won't be that close when the final score is recorded. I hope Cinci fans spike it in folks faces if they pull this off. It would be an unbelievable ending to a Cinderella like season and less than 2 years since Joe Burrow arrived.  Burrow is a little more than 1 year removed from his ACL tear, he has been lights out. 

I am looking at a final score of...

LA Rams 35...Cincinnati 24 and it could get lopsided but I hope not and the Rams just pull away late. 

Good Luck both teams and I am not Nostrodamus, anything is possible and Cinci has the firepower if they can give Burrow some time, you've seen it for several weeks and that's what is keeping the line where it is IMHO. 

Go!

 
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Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
Early lead will be critical, that will be the time to take chances.  2 solid defenses, you don't want Burrow taking too many hits behind that o line and you don't want Stafford throwing it up for grabs. Let your running games and defenses control the clock with the lead.

 

Da Guru

Fair & Balanced
If Burrow gets time Cinci has a good chance.  That being said I don`t think Burrow will get time against the Rams pass rush.  

Just happy we have some new blood in Super Bowl with Burrow and Stafford.

Did not want to watch Brady-Mahomes again. I have gone through 2 Labrador Retrievers since Brady entered the league, and already have Mahomes fatigue.

 

ekbeats

Footballguy
While watching the Chiefs / Bengals game on January 2nd I placed a bet on the Bengals winning the Super Bowl at +2600.  Two weeks later I placed a bet on the Rams winning the Superbowl at +700.  Those were the only two bets I placed this year on winning the Superbowl.  Crazy good luck.

When I placed that Rams bet I also placed two bets on Superbowl MVP - Aaron Donald at +15000 and Cam Akers at +30000.  😳

 

farfromforgotten

Footballguy
Rams trailing with 4 minutes to go.

Stafford hits Kupp from 17 yards out. 

Rams 21 Bengals 20                                

Stafford gets his ring!

Not so fast…

Burrow leads the 1 minute drive (2 minutes is way too much time anymore) to get into FG range and “Money Mac” drains it from 49. 
 

Bengals 23 Rams 21

 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Rams trailing with 4 minutes to go.

Stafford hits Kupp from 17 yards out. 

Rams 21 Bengals 20                                

Stafford gets his ring!

Not so fast…

Burrow leads the 1 minute drive (2 minutes is way too much time anymore) to get into FG range and “Money Mac” drains it from 49. 
 

Bengals 23 Rams 21
You've described the perfect game for most of my big bets. :wub:  

 

popeye

Footballguy
Rams 31-23
I agree with this.   Bengals have been a great story and fun to watch.  But I see the Rams with a clear advantage on the defensive side.  If Mixon can run, things may be very close - but in the end I see the Rams winning.

 

Harry Frogfish

Footballguy
Von Miller is my darkhorse at 35-1 for MVP.  Obviously Cinci has to put two men on Aaron Donald most of the game.  As a result, Von will get the chance to make some game-changing plays that could get him a 2nd Super Bowl MVP.  That would be something else.  He's as healthy as he's been in awhile, the sacks are showing up again -- new team takes awhile -- and he's got the knowledge to do it again.

Mind you, this is the same guy that took Superman Cam and turned him upside down in a matter of minutes.

The chance of an MVP coming from a player on D is pretty much only on the Rams side of the ball (Hendrickson notwithstanding).  And with Stafford possibly ending up his shaky self and the D destroying that suspect O-line and winning the game for them?  Yeah, the ball needs to bounce Von's way, but I'm not playing Donald with the rest of the world at an absurd 5-1.

Good Luck!  Let's see anything at 20-1 or more here, just curious who you guys got at long odds.

 
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titusbramble

Footballguy
Gone for +800 parlay of over 41.5, Chase over 5.5 receptions, Donald to record a sack, Burrow to throw a pick, both teams to score a FG, no overtime or safeties

 

jm192

Footballguy
My head says the Rams win.  

My heart is rooting for the Bengals.  

I do worry that the Rams pass rush is going to have a big day.  On the flip side, I think Zac Taylor is a smart head coach and they're going to game plan to mitigate that.  

28-24 Rams

MVP Kupp.

 

dkp993

Footballguy
My head says the Rams win.  

My heart is rooting for the Bengals.  

I do worry that the Rams pass rush is going to have a big day.  On the flip side, I think Zac Taylor is a smart head coach and they're going to game plan to mitigate that.  

28-24 Rams

MVP Kupp.
Always knew I liked you.  

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Advantage Cincinnati with McPherson down the stretch.
There's a lot of that in the media and pundits, I see Cinci being the darling later today for many experts to root for and call victory. 

I feel like the Rams have the experience and a few more stars on their Defense that should carry them to the Lombardi Trophy

They won't have to travel far to go to Disney Land. 

 

DropKick

Footballguy
ekbeats said:
While watching the Chiefs / Bengals game on January 2nd I placed a bet on the Bengals winning the Super Bowl at +2600.  Two weeks later I placed a bet on the Rams winning the Superbowl at +700.  Those were the only two bets I placed this year on winning the Superbowl.  Crazy good luck.

When I placed that Rams bet I also placed two bets on Superbowl MVP - Aaron Donald at +15000 and Cam Akers at +30000.  😳
I'm not a gambler.  How much do you look to win based on which team wins and if either of those guys gets the MVP?

 

DropKick

Footballguy
My head says the Rams win.  

My heart is rooting for the Bengals.  

I do worry that the Rams pass rush is going to have a big day.  On the flip side, I think Zac Taylor is a smart head coach and they're going to game plan to mitigate that.  

28-24 Rams

MVP Kupp.
How I see it... Usually it takes a little experience to win a SB.  I'll root (marginally) for the Bengals based on their long standing underdog role.  I won't be disappointed either way; two sound teams and Stafford would be a deserving winner.

 

Harry Frogfish

Footballguy
I'm not a gambler.  How much do you look to win based on which team wins and if either of those guys gets the MVP?


The Donald MVP bet at 15-1 is a GREAT price.  He is down to a ridiculous 4-1 at one book I know.  I read an article earlier in the week that talked about the biggest bets coming in so far.  For Props, someone put like 5 grand on Donald to win MVP at 16-1.  Pretty sure due to that and as people started getting their props down, Donald took a ton of money, so why not drop his odds precipitously?  It's also why I landed on Von at a big price for the hell of it.

Again, for me if Cinci wins it's almost certainly Burrow.  Maybe Chase but no WR has a big day without Joe Cool (yeah, I said it) delivering.  No way they don't give it to the new darling of the NFL; they love their poster boys.

If the Rams win, then there's a chance at a D player, especially with Stafford being unpredictable, and the fact they can actually win because of that D.

 
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Harry Frogfish

Footballguy
MoP you should change the line, it's gone up to 5 now.  INTERESTING!

Did Burrow end up at the old Playboy Mansion or something, what's with the late steam coming in on the Rams?

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
11 of last 15 MVPs have been the winning QB, but this looks like a good game to go against that and pick a defensive player. Same reason I lean toward the under, two defenses that can disrupt in different ways.

 

Pigskin Fanatic

Footballguy
This is McVay's coming out party. Wanna talk about a chip on someone's shoulders? 3 points scored in the last Superbowl appearance. He really is one of the great football minds of the game, I think Goff held him back. Of course Stafford has possible multi-interception game in him, but there's just too much talent here in LA imo. Gonna be a great game, won't be sad to see Cinci complete its cinderella story. Buuuuut...  Rams 27 Cinci 24.

 

jon_mx

Footballguy
Seems like Stafford MVP at +125 is a better bet the Rams -4 at -110.  Of Rams win, Stafford is almost certainly MVP. 

 

dmac37

Footballguy
Burrow showing up with an all decked out look at me suit and hat, Stafford in a plain black tee shirt. I think this confirms what I thought going into this game, Rams win and cover. 

 

Cowboysfan8

Footballguy
Burrow showing up with an all decked out look at me suit and hat, Stafford in a plain black tee shirt. I think this confirms what I thought going into this game, Rams win and cover. 
I’ve had a feeling all week Rams win big.
I rarely play sides and the teams I’ve thought were going to win so far in the postseason have mostly lost 

 

jon_mx

Footballguy
you can have the play of the century interception at the goal line in the closing seconds - QB wins the MVP


It would take something like Chase getting 10-160-2 or 3 sacks and a FF by Donald to get consideration.  

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
MoP you should change the line, it's gone up to 5 now.  INTERESTING!

Did Burrow end up at the old Playboy Mansion or something, what's with the late steam coming in on the Rams?
Just went to VegasInsider and it has -4.5 48.5u up to date 🤷‍♂️

Maybe it did hit that point, could again right before kick off

 

Harry Frogfish

Footballguy
Looks like right now most books are leveling at 4.5 & 48.5. 🏈


Just an update on where I got the 5 (betting through a friend who lives in Vegas).  He was at SouthPoint and it appears they took a lot of action at that time (obviously), so it moved to 5.  I added to my +4 1/2 bet from earlier in the week.  He placed it and then came back and said it was now down 5 cents (to -105, -5), to see if I wanted more.  I passed, I'm overly invested already and that's not nearly enough to make me bite.  But yeah, SouthPoint needed to even things out a couple hours ago, and fast.

 

Harry Frogfish

Footballguy
Just went to VegasInsider and it has -4.5 48.5u up to date 🤷‍♂️

Maybe it did hit that point, could again right before kick off


See my above post, we posted at the same time.

Just to add, when he said it's gone to 5 at SP, I looked on VegasInsider out of curiosity and it was indeed 5 there at every shop but one I think, maybe two.  Clearly, it wasn't there for long.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Super Macho Man vs The Cincinnati Kid

-Punchout reference 

It's going to be difficult for the Bengals IMO at some point in the 1st Half, we could possibly see a repeat of the Bengals falling behind but I do feel Burrow can work them back into the game, perhaps a 28-24 Rams lead into the 4th, still see something like 35-24 and maybe they get a late TD to seal it, maybe they won't need it but this feels like the Rams DLine vs Cinci OL is the key to the game for the most part. Burrow might have to throw earlier than he would like, look for Boyd and Higgins to be very active. I've liked Higgins for a long time and think he could play a pivotal role tonight, this isn't his first rodeo, nor Burrow nor chase, all of them have been in the very top level of the NCAA and it should be interesting how they attack the Rams tonight. 

It's hard to envision the Bengals manhandling and blowing out the Rams, of all scenarios that seems least likely or discussed. Most are saying Bengals with McPherson late FG, seems too obvious or popular based on the recent weeks. 

Good luck to both teams, chili dog No 1 was delicious. 

 

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