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Loser draft pick awards so far. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter shadrap
- Start date
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Baldwin
tackle for loss
Footballguy
I think its very obvious that its Bell and not a close 2nd seeing as how Bell is rostered by all and taken in the first round and not even on a team right now. Everyone else thats named has a team and a contract and can be safely dropped for sucking if you like, Bell cant be dropped.
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Dizzy
Footballguy
He didn't go in the first round in most of my drafts (we draft as close to opening week as possible). I think Bell has done what everyone expected coming into the season. I don't see how him holding out (as expected going into week 1) is a disappointment based on expectations. Drafting him was a known risk. You had decide if the risk was worth the reward and when you would be willing to pull the trigger. This played out as expected so far.
tackle for loss
Footballguy
Not trying to offend, but DJ has 5 TDs in 5 weeks.
How does that compare to Bell?
How does that compare to Bell?
zamboni
Footballguy
Of course you can't compare to Bell, but DJ has been a disappointment unless you're in a TD only league.
5 games: 74 carries, 242 yards (3.3 YPC)/15 receptions for 120 yards
Not exactly what any DJ owner signed up for, especially the receptions (and, to a lesser extent, the number of carries).
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Birdie048
Footballguy
12 Team PPR Keeper .... I took Den RB Royce Freeman 1.09 & NEP WR Chris Hogan 2.05
BOTH classified as BUSTS!
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Happens every year.
2017 3rd/4th rounders:
Crowell
Pryor
Montgomery
L Miller
Benjamin
Marshawn
M Bryant
Crabtree
Muscle Hamster
One of the most overlooked things in fantasy football is how often vets bust.
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beerbuff
Footballguy
I don't see Crowell or Marshawn as being busts given their draft position. My list: Bell, Fournette, Freeman(s), Cooper, David Johnson, L Miller, Hogan, Gronk, Fitz, McKinnon, Cook, Jimmy G, Drake, Olsen, Guice, Zeke (or any Dallas player drafted), Keenum, Goodwin, Crabtree and of course Amari Cooper.
kutta
Footballguy
It’s extremely rare for a player to hold out like this. Most people expected him to be playing by now. To say it’s played out as expected is a bit disingenuous, IMO.
shadrap
Footballguy
I'm in 6 redraft leagues-targeted him in the 5th rd. Never got him. He was going 4th rd in the last week of drafts. Early 5th rd in earlier drafts.
The biggest loser in my mind is the entirety of fantasy football analysts.
Not a single one of them foresaw the significant scoring changes that would occur due to the new rules. This was missed by everyone, and wildly skewed predraft rankings to be RB-heavy when it should not have been.
Not a single one of them foresaw the significant scoring changes that would occur due to the new rules. This was missed by everyone, and wildly skewed predraft rankings to be RB-heavy when it should not have been.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
RB: Freeman- issues with injury, performance, workload and it cost owners a 2nd round pick. I don't see how anyone can trust him at all moving forward. He wins at a position loaded with disappointments.
WR: Fitzgeralrd- likely was a 4th round pick and he's just been awful with no hope in sight. He looks done and that Cards offense is dreadful.
TE: T Ehas been really bad- lots of injuries so it's hard to give a bust award but right now I say Njoku. He was drafted to be a TE1 and after 5 games has 0 TDs and <200 yards. At least with injured guys, they have an excuse and with Gronk there is hope going forward.
QB: Russell Wilson- A top 3 QB in most leagues and he is dropable IMO. He isn't running and Seattle isn't throwing.
WR: Fitzgeralrd- likely was a 4th round pick and he's just been awful with no hope in sight. He looks done and that Cards offense is dreadful.
TE: T Ehas been really bad- lots of injuries so it's hard to give a bust award but right now I say Njoku. He was drafted to be a TE1 and after 5 games has 0 TDs and <200 yards. At least with injured guys, they have an excuse and with Gronk there is hope going forward.
QB: Russell Wilson- A top 3 QB in most leagues and he is dropable IMO. He isn't running and Seattle isn't throwing.
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shadrap
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Up until the week of kickoff he was still expected to show up to play week 1 so it doesn’t matter how late you drafted.
FWIW I factored in the rules changes but pass catching RB's benefit as well. Also RB remains a thin position but the rules changes only served to make WR's even deeper and easier to find which is another reason to go RB heavy early. I anticipated TE's being a bigger beneficiary due to but that's not really happened.
I'd say it mattered. He was a lock top 4 pick and usually one or two from like June until about a week before the season. When he failed to report 9 days before the opener, as he did the previous season, that's when alarm bells went off and he started to fall in drafts. Still usually made it in round one but now late round one, and a few times into round two.
Just looking at top 5 rounds of where these players where normally drafted in my leagues:
1. Fournette- injuries are the culprit but the results are the results and he is the run away winner for bust of the year relative to his cost. He clearly beats Bell and here is why. Bell has been on your bench all year. Fournette likely entered your lineup two weeks and gave you about 5.5 points a game PPR average.
2. Cook-see above. Like Fournette the worst kind of pick because he's been in your lineup a few weeks but at least one of those weeks he was serviceable.
3. Cooper-two weeks of help for 3 weeks of hurt is not worth his price tag
4. Derrick Henry- probably took a few weeks of 5 PPG scoring to get him out of your lineups. Lineup wrecker of the year.
5. Josh Gordon- trade and injury has put him back. On most of my teams he has never entered a lineup and that's likely similar for a lot of people so main advantage he has over a lot of these other players is he's not killed a lot of weekly lineups.
The good news I think most of these players turn it around so if you can survive and advance no harm no foul in the end. Cook and Fournette are as simple as getting healthy, which should happen. Gordon just has to get over his hamstring and acclimate, both should improve every week. Cooper to me is as simple as ironing out some issues with Carr and weekly gameplan. Henry is the one I don't see a rainbow at the end.
1. Fournette- injuries are the culprit but the results are the results and he is the run away winner for bust of the year relative to his cost. He clearly beats Bell and here is why. Bell has been on your bench all year. Fournette likely entered your lineup two weeks and gave you about 5.5 points a game PPR average.
2. Cook-see above. Like Fournette the worst kind of pick because he's been in your lineup a few weeks but at least one of those weeks he was serviceable.
3. Cooper-two weeks of help for 3 weeks of hurt is not worth his price tag
4. Derrick Henry- probably took a few weeks of 5 PPG scoring to get him out of your lineups. Lineup wrecker of the year.
5. Josh Gordon- trade and injury has put him back. On most of my teams he has never entered a lineup and that's likely similar for a lot of people so main advantage he has over a lot of these other players is he's not killed a lot of weekly lineups.
The good news I think most of these players turn it around so if you can survive and advance no harm no foul in the end. Cook and Fournette are as simple as getting healthy, which should happen. Gordon just has to get over his hamstring and acclimate, both should improve every week. Cooper to me is as simple as ironing out some issues with Carr and weekly gameplan. Henry is the one I don't see a rainbow at the end.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well yes, if you drafted after the Monday of kickoff week it did matter. I should have been more clear.
shadrap
Footballguy
isn't it amazing how you can come out of a draft and say "nice team, solid all the way around".
rockaction
Footballguy
Not with that injury history. If you're drafting volume, don't draft an injury history. That's my approach, anyway. Fournette and Freeman both have one. Then again, it may just be the RB position as a whole. Tough shelf life.
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rockaction
Footballguy
"Draft rookie RBs," says Saquon Barkley. DYNO-MITE!
"Play cornerback," whispers the draftnik.
"Play cornerback," whispers the draftnik.
matuski
Footballguy
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It is very rare but this is a very rare case. After last year and nothing changing it seemed obvious this was going to be a bad situation that held a ton of risk. I guess I was in the minority but he was a stay away for me in all drafts (all of my drafts occurred within 10-14 days of the start of the season) as I was expecting this to get ugly. It has played out as most of the people in my leagues expected as he was a mid to late 2nd round pick in almost all of the leagues I am in.kutta said:
I don't see this situation as a bust situation. Players like Drake, Collins, Cooper who are in lineups and not performing are what I consider "loser" picks. The Bell situation was bad from the start but you aren't playing him and he isn't hurting you other than the lost draft capital. Plus if you were smart you would have cuffed Conner to hedge against a holdout and that has turned out pretty well.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
D Cook had to have been drafted as a RB1, right? bum (own him). and at least up to this point J Howard (own him). L Fitz already mentioned (own him). Okay now i'm just listing my team. OBJ would have been on this list if not for the good week last week. Was not playing like a WR1 through week 4, though not sure i would put that on him (own him).
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
At least he's playing. Most people took Fournette in the first and he's a no show through what looks like 9 weeks.Gally said:
I think that's your winner right there so far.
fightingillini
Footballguy
How about Gronkowski? He has been mildly disappointing so far. And since you could have taken Kelce and Ertz a round or two later, makes it hurt worse.
The bold is what makes Drake much worse. He hurts you during your matchup.
Fournette has always had a history of missing games. Was it really unexpected? It sucks for sure and hurts your team, but you know he is out so you aren't playing him and it isn't hurting your team during a game. You can have someone else in the lineup. The loss is draft capital only.
A guy like Drake was drafted to be a starter on your team and you have played him every week expecting things to get better and then he puts up 3 carries and 5 yds. That hurts a lot more than a guy ruled out that you know you can't play.
The answer really depends on how you define a "loser pick". To me injuries are part of the game and if it happens to a player I picked it sucks but it doesn't mean my pick was necessarily bad at the time. Where a guy that is used completely differently than expected or underperforming very badly is a much worse pick because you were just wrong in your evaluation.
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JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo
Footballguy
Gronk went in the 3rd round in a couple of my leagues so yes, he should be in this list
TheWinz
Footballguy
In my league (.5PPR redraft), here is the order of the first 20 RB's taken, and their current ranking:
Gurley - 1 - as expected
Zeke - 6 - NFL's rushing leader and 5.2YPC, no way he is a bust
Bell - N/A - certainly qualifies as a loser draft pick, but not a bust
DJ - 11 - has only had one single-digit game, and is trending up, not a bust IMO
Barkley - 4 - can't be a bust if your ranking is higher than your draft pick
Kamara - 2 - has kept pace with Gurley thus far
Hunt - 9 - his fantasy #'s are very similar to DJ's, just a tad better
McCaffrey - 13 - already had his bye, has been very good so far
Fournette - 73 - as someone already said, he is worse than Bell, as owners have started him twice
Gordon - 3 - yeah, I know, he shoulda been drafted about 4 RB's ago, running at 4.6YPC
Cook - 59 - you know who is RB58 in my league? Latavius Murray!
D. Freeman - 70 - it's pretty sad when Devonta has half as many points as Devontae
Howard - 37 - I remember hearing he would lead the league in yards and TD's
Drake - 25 - the coaching staff is the bust here, he needs the ball to be effective
Mixon - 21 - workhorse when healthy, not a bust
Collins - 26 - he is his own worst enemy, but not a complete bust, because he has reached double digits 3 times
McKinnon - N/A - I guess we'll see how "busty" he is in 2019
McCoy - 50 - 1 game in double digits, active 4 times, a true bust to this point
R. Freeman - 27 - you can blame Lindsay for his low ranking, because he has been good and needs more
Miller - 38 - quite pedestrian
So, of the top 10 drafted, only Fournette and Bell make the list for me. Six of the top 10 RB's selected are ranked in the top 10, with DJ at 11 and CMC at 13 (and already had his bye).
RB's 11 thru 20 are where the bulk of the busts come from. Did you notice that none of these guys are in the top 20?
As for WR's, there are alot fewer busts IMO. Tops on this list, by a country mile, is Fitz. He has been active all 5 weeks, and was a top 20 WR pick for sure. Many owners likely started him every week, and he is currently WR77 in my league. At least Baldwin has been inactive.
Gurley - 1 - as expected
Zeke - 6 - NFL's rushing leader and 5.2YPC, no way he is a bust
Bell - N/A - certainly qualifies as a loser draft pick, but not a bust
DJ - 11 - has only had one single-digit game, and is trending up, not a bust IMO
Barkley - 4 - can't be a bust if your ranking is higher than your draft pick
Kamara - 2 - has kept pace with Gurley thus far
Hunt - 9 - his fantasy #'s are very similar to DJ's, just a tad better
McCaffrey - 13 - already had his bye, has been very good so far
Fournette - 73 - as someone already said, he is worse than Bell, as owners have started him twice
Gordon - 3 - yeah, I know, he shoulda been drafted about 4 RB's ago, running at 4.6YPC
Cook - 59 - you know who is RB58 in my league? Latavius Murray!
D. Freeman - 70 - it's pretty sad when Devonta has half as many points as Devontae
Howard - 37 - I remember hearing he would lead the league in yards and TD's
Drake - 25 - the coaching staff is the bust here, he needs the ball to be effective
Mixon - 21 - workhorse when healthy, not a bust
Collins - 26 - he is his own worst enemy, but not a complete bust, because he has reached double digits 3 times
McKinnon - N/A - I guess we'll see how "busty" he is in 2019
McCoy - 50 - 1 game in double digits, active 4 times, a true bust to this point
R. Freeman - 27 - you can blame Lindsay for his low ranking, because he has been good and needs more
Miller - 38 - quite pedestrian
So, of the top 10 drafted, only Fournette and Bell make the list for me. Six of the top 10 RB's selected are ranked in the top 10, with DJ at 11 and CMC at 13 (and already had his bye).
RB's 11 thru 20 are where the bulk of the busts come from. Did you notice that none of these guys are in the top 20?
As for WR's, there are alot fewer busts IMO. Tops on this list, by a country mile, is Fitz. He has been active all 5 weeks, and was a top 20 WR pick for sure. Many owners likely started him every week, and he is currently WR77 in my league. At least Baldwin has been inactive.
fightingillini
Footballguy
As for WRs, Keenan Allen has to be on the list. Was a top 5 or 6 WR pick in most leagues, and in my 1/2 PPR league, he's WR26. Has scored 50.5 less points than WR1 in my league, which is Adam Thielen. He's getting decent volume, but his YPC is pretty low, and he's ceding red zone looks to the TEs, Mike Williams and the RBs. He should rebound, but it looks like he will fall well short of his draft position.
Skoo
Footballguy
I feel like fantasy analysts in general are super-reactionary.tangfoot said:
Weekly rankings for example, if a guy has a big game, he shoots up in the rankings for the next week. Vice versa after a bad game. Now of course, there are times when someone is breaking out or breaking down and there is a good reason for the moves. But I feel like far too often that's not the case and rankers are just chasing last week's points, so to speak.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Chris Hogan in the 3rd round of a 14-teamer (38th). Panicked because I got sniped and I hadn't mocked much, picked him ahead of Golden Tate, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks.
tackle for loss
Footballguy
Fantasy analysts are awful and rarely correct when they are not stating the obvious. Heaven for bid you say something to them on twitter about their bad predictions. Like thanks for telling me to start Aaron Rodgers this week against SF, where would I have been without you analysts? Analysts are mostly there for some who need validation and to feel confident on a start and sit when they are on the fence for.
I'm going to disagree with this... DJ is currently RB10 in PPR. Just because he's not blowing up on a weekly basis doesn't mean he was a super disappointment if he's still getting RB1 numbers.zamboni said:
Bell is a season killer if you didn't handcuff. 8 weeks of lost production and you can't drop him for someone else.
Baldwin was a an injury risk so was depreciated into the 4th round. The risk hasn't paid off yet but that was baked into his draft position. So he's not really a bust.
Fitz is a huge bust for me - he was projected to have 100 receptions regardless of who was QB. He's been playing so people had him in lineups but clearly wasn't 100% and has just killed teams so far this year.
Crowder/Goodwin were hyped and projected really high by FBG and both have been unstartable.
spodog
Footballguy
Kelce was not going 2 rounds later than Gronk in competitive leagues. He went 2 picks later in my main $ draft.
Elevencents
Footballguy
For me personally - Goodwin and Henry. Everyone and their mother were high on Goodwin. Henry was a keeper in the 9th so not a huge investment but ffs I have had him and Murray when he flopped after his good year in TN. No more Titans RBs!
I was locked in on Fitz in the 3rd. Had him the last two years. Thank god someone reached for him.
Hogan was a keeper I had high hopes for and ended up trading him for Landry at the draft so that worked out alright.
Think we all expected a lot more from R Freeman and thought he may need a few weeks to completely supplant Booker then this Lindsay kid blows up.
Cooper I avoided like the plague. Amazes me that he keeps getting drafted so high.
Fournette I have in the subscriber contest. I was back and forth between him and Gordon. Wrong choice was made obviously. If I had to pick one for worst pick of draft it would be him. Can’t start him, can’t trade him, can’t drop him.
There are more but that’s off the top of my head.
I was locked in on Fitz in the 3rd. Had him the last two years. Thank god someone reached for him.
Hogan was a keeper I had high hopes for and ended up trading him for Landry at the draft so that worked out alright.
Think we all expected a lot more from R Freeman and thought he may need a few weeks to completely supplant Booker then this Lindsay kid blows up.
Cooper I avoided like the plague. Amazes me that he keeps getting drafted so high.
Fournette I have in the subscriber contest. I was back and forth between him and Gordon. Wrong choice was made obviously. If I had to pick one for worst pick of draft it would be him. Can’t start him, can’t trade him, can’t drop him.
There are more but that’s off the top of my head.
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