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Lower tier WRs and their dynasty value (1 Viewer)

todisco1

Footballguy
Unexciting I know, but I'm looking to get a consensus of which lower tier WRs have a shot at becoming more prolific in the next year or two.

Example:

Justin Gage: (for now) the clear-cut #1 WR on Tennessee. Had some decent games but seems inconsistant. Monster playoff game with 10 catches fore 130+. Was hurt early in the year and his numbers suffered, but when they get him involved seems to have big play potential as well as being a red zone target. Is this guy a decent #3 WR going into next year with upside or is he strictly bench material for the rest of his career?

Mark Clayton: flashes of potential, and with a developing QB and an aging Mason could be in for an uptick in production. Has talent, but can he finally put it all together?

Greg Camarillo: was having a very nice season in ppr leagues prior to his injury. Now, looks like Bess will push him for time. If he's healthy, what does his future look like? Decent possession reciever or was his production only because there was literally no one else to throw to?

Mark Bradly: had a few decent games in KC, then seemed to vanish. Has physical tools but has only shown flashes of becoming a consitant weapon.

Would love to hear people's thoughts on these guys and anyone else they can think of...

 
Gage - I loved him as a late round pick in the message board survivor leagues this year because I thought he was a lock for 60-70 receptions this year. Thats great late round value in a PPR league. I think he will hold almost as good of value next year... if the Titans keep Collins at QB. Holds about the same value in redraft & dynasty IMO.

Mason - Flacco's maturity can only mean good things for Mason. I'd expect a season on par with Hines Ward next year. That being said, I think he'll be picked a little higher than last year. Good for redraft (WR25 or so), not so much for dynasty unless you are in serious contention this year.

Camarillo - Not sure where I would put value. If people project his numbers into a whole season, I think he'll go higher than he should... somewhere in the Chambers/Curtis range (WR22 or so). Personally, I don't think I touch him until closer to WR28 - 30.

 
todisco1 said:
Unexciting I know, but I'm looking to get a consensus of which lower tier WRs have a shot at becoming more prolific in the next year or two. Example:Justin Gage: (for now) the clear-cut #1 WR on Tennessee. Had some decent games but seems inconsistant. Monster playoff game with 10 catches fore 130+. Was hurt early in the year and his numbers suffered, but when they get him involved seems to have big play potential as well as being a red zone target. Is this guy a decent #3 WR going into next year with upside or is he strictly bench material for the rest of his career?Mark Clayton: flashes of potential, and with a developing QB and an aging Mason could be in for an uptick in production. Has talent, but can he finally put it all together?Greg Camarillo: was having a very nice season in ppr leagues prior to his injury. Now, looks like Bess will push him for time. If he's healthy, what does his future look like? Decent possession reciever or was his production only because there was literally no one else to throw to?Mark Bradly: had a few decent games in KC, then seemed to vanish. Has physical tools but has only shown flashes of becoming a consitant weapon. Would love to hear people's thoughts on these guys and anyone else they can think of...
In a more pass happy offense, I'd probably be up on Gage more. But with Johnson and White being so young, I see Fisher sticking to the run first plan for the forseeable future. Not bad as a WR4 who might have WR2 upside. I don't think of him as that talented, but being your team's starting WR usually makes you draftable. The problem is I think he's vulnerable to being replaced in an instant via free agency and within a year by a more talented rookie.If Clayton was going to explode, he'd have done so by now. He just finished his fourth season and had the fewest receptions since his rookie season and failed to top his sophmore year in yards. Mason has made a pretty good second career in Baltimore so I can't really blame the QB/offensive scheme. Mason has simply been the better option and the lopsided catch/yard numbers reflect that. Whats the line on 5th year WR's breaking out? Not that good. Not to mention that he spends a lot of time dinged up...which isn't helping his production. At this point, I think his year 2 numbers are probably his ceiling.Camarillo is more appealing to me than Clayton. He's on a team with no established veteran WR presence. In some ways, his opportunity makes up for what he may lack in talent. As with Gage, being a WR that is going to see the field a lot makes you draftable. But his last season in college was back in 2004 IIRC so he's actually as old a 4th year WR despite having just finished his 3rd season. His numbers weren't bad considering his shortened season. But like Gage, I think he's very vulnerable to being replaced by a younger, more talented player.Bradley is probably the most appealing to me. No WR has done much in Chicago lately so his first 3.5 years were almost a mulligan. He may have found his niche with KC though I don't see him displacing Bowe as their WR1. But being the WR2 to a younger up and comer may mean KC isn't going to spend a high draft pick to replace him. I think he might stick for a little while and is probably less vulnerable to replacement. There is also the question of where this team is headed coaching wise. His stock might rise if the offensive philosophy shifts.BTW, is Bradley the only guy to ever play in 18 regular season games? That's kinda crazy.I'd rank them in this order...BradleyCamarilloGageClaytonCamarillo over Gage just because I trust the Dolphins to throw more.But honestly, I'm not expecting any of these guys to become prolific.
 
Nice observations.

I'd like to add Chris Henry, Cincy, to the list.

IF Tj and or Ocho Cinco are gone next season, and it appears there is a reasonable chance of them moves on, does Henry have a shot at putting up big-time numbers (providing he doesn't screw up in the offseason and get suspended for life). The guy seems to have big time talent. Did little this year but Cincy was such a mess I'm willing to give him a pass for this season. What is his prognosis? In terms of talent, I think he has huge potential - if he's starting, what is his upside? Top 20? Top 15?

 
Gage was hurt a bunch this year right from the start. He had 700+ yards in 8 games starting in 07 and looked excellent in the playoff game. I think the injuries and added pressure of being #1 forced him into an adjustment period. I thought many teams foolishly spent alot of energy shutting down the Titans passing attack only to see their running game destroy them. "Our guys can handle their OL" was too common and the Titans OL was one of the best. Teams that geared up for the run and almost gave up any pass seemed to do better against the Titans.

(As stated above) I think he'll be fine as a WR4 in PPR leagues in 09. He is nothing like the WR he was in Chicago.

Another issue is the Titans lack of a #2. McCariens had a few nice catches here and there but was unexciting. Brandon Jones(I think filling in for Gage/injury) had some enormous catches against the Ravens and one other team-showed concentration(which was new with him) and made big 3rd down catches, toes in bounds, fingertip grab...the whole nine, but then he pretty much did nothing. That's about Brandon's career:alot of "wow this guy might be good" and then nothing. Paul Williams has been developing a while and could finally do something in 09. Lavelle Hawkins was playing more as the season went on but I think the rook might be a slot WR. I still think their best 2nd WR was on the PS this year in Biren Ealy.

6-3 210? Biren hustles, makes tough catches, and seems like a "yes coach I'll try harder" guy. We didn't get to see him in year 2, just his rookie year. (not trying to be arrogant just offer perspective) The fact that I think there's even a possibility that a PS guy was their best #2 WR puts it into perspective how weak their WRs were outside of Gage. ANY decent WR should help Gage in attracting a smidge of attention away from him.

It is more likely the Titans find a way to roster 8 TEs than land a big name WR though.

 
Nice observations. I'd like to add Chris Henry, Cincy, to the list.IF Tj and or Ocho Cinco are gone next season, and it appears there is a reasonable chance of them moves on, does Henry have a shot at putting up big-time numbers (providing he doesn't screw up in the offseason and get suspended for life). The guy seems to have big time talent. Did little this year but Cincy was such a mess I'm willing to give him a pass for this season. What is his prognosis? In terms of talent, I think he has huge potential - if he's starting, what is his upside? Top 20? Top 15?
I don't know that he can do it every week.He has crazy potential to be top 5 even but it just doesn't seem likely.I could see him becoming like Jurevicius and having a slew of "wow" big catches, few big games, and that's about it.Let me switch it back to you-what does a player have to have happen to develop into a top WR?
 

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