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LT or LJ (1 Viewer)

So in a one player keeper league, who do you keep next year?

  • LT

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • LJ

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0

bryhamm

Footballguy
Let's assume that Priest decides to retire. Who do you keep in a one player keeper league?I asked this question a few weeks back when LJ was just becoming the starter for the remainder of the year, but I wanted to ask again after seeing how LJ has performed over the last few weeks.

 

SSOG

Moderator
Let's assume that Priest decides to retire. Who do you keep in a one player keeper league?

I asked this question a few weeks back when LJ was just becoming the starter for the remainder of the year, but I wanted to ask again after seeing how LJ has performed over the last few weeks.
Unless your league requires you to submit keeper designations immediately following the conclusion of the fantasy season, I think it's still waaaaay to early to tell. Wait and see what happens during the offseason. You never know if Roaf or Shields are going to retire, or if SD trades Tomlinson for a shut-down corner, or what.
 

bryhamm

Footballguy
:link: to old poll?

just curious of those results in comparison
I can't find it now. I tried a search but came up empty.IIRC, the results were similar to what this poll is showing (2/3 vs 1/3 for LT).

 

SSOG

Moderator
I say Tomlinson. Johnson has the potential to outproduce Tomlinson, but as soon as Roaf/Shield/Vermeil retire, his value takes a susbtantial hit. Like, catastrophic. Tomlinson holds his value a lot better.It's like they say, you can't win the league in the first round, but you can lose it. Basically, with stud picks, you're looking to minimize risk, and in my mind, Tomlinson minimizes risk without sacrificing too much on upside.

 

Shermanator

Footballguy
LT [ 29 ] ** [50.00%]

LJ [ 29 ] ** [50.00%]

:eek:
I dont really understand what is shocking about the poll percentages. Considering that it is assumed that Priest retires from the onset of this poll. Actually, if Priest does retire, I dont see how LJ is second to LT in any type of league draft.

 

Shermanator

Footballguy
but as soon as Roaf/Shield/Vermeil retire, his value takes a susbtantial hit. Like, catastrophic.
I understand the sentiment to this statement, but really disagree with it.Larry Johnson gets 1400 yards running behind Arizona's O line.

 

Tenderknee

Footballguy
LaDainian has shown that he is very durable and consistently productive.Larry has shown that he can be very productive, but has not proven his durability.I also don't think that any RB has better hands than LaDainian.Larry also may be the product of the system, and the system may not be around for long.LaDainian has shown that he can put up the numbers consistently, regardless of the system/coach/OL.LaDainian and Larry are about the same age.One thing that looks good for Larry is that he has produced better per-game rushing numbers than Priest Holmes did in his best year (if you take out Larry's 7 games where he split carries).Larry seems like a reincarnated Priest Holmes, but his rushing numbers are even better.It is hard to tell whether he actually is a better rusher, or he is just getting more opportunities.With keepers, you want the sure thing.LaDainian is the sure thing.Larry has a good chance at being better, but he is not a sure thing.You can also back up LaDainian with Michael Turner much more safely than Larry with Tony R.

 

Tenderknee

Footballguy
but as soon as Roaf/Shield/Vermeil retire, his value takes a susbtantial hit. Like, catastrophic.
I understand the sentiment to this statement, but really disagree with it.Larry Johnson gets 1400 yards running behind Arizona's O line.
...and that is a substantial hit in my opinion, even before you take into account the reduction of TDs.
 

SSOG

Moderator
but as soon as Roaf/Shield/Vermeil retire, his value takes a susbtantial hit. Like, catastrophic.
I understand the sentiment to this statement, but really disagree with it.Larry Johnson gets 1400 yards running behind Arizona's O line.
You so sure about that? I don't know exactly what games Roaf missed... but I know he missed the first Denver game, and played in the second. And Johnson had 8/13/0 and a fumble in the first Denver game and 30/140/2 in the second.I really don't think you can underestimate the impact this offensive line has had on KC's RB's numbers. And you ESPECIALLY can't underestimate the impact that **** Vermeil has had on his RB's numbers.

 

SSOG

Moderator
Also, I'd be curious to see some research on it, but my experience tells me that RBs who take over the full-time job in the last half of the season tend to put up artificially inflated numbers. I'm thinking of Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Willis McGahee, and William Green in particular, although I'm sure if we looked hard enough we could find lots of examples. I could theorize that it has something to do with the RB at midseason having fresh legs and facing already-worn-out defenses.Name the last RB you can think of that came on like gangbusters over the last half of the season and maintained production at anywhere NEAR that level the next season.

 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
LaDainian has shown that he is very durable and consistently productive.

Larry has shown that he can be very productive, but has not proven his durability.

I also don't think that any RB has better hands than LaDainian.

Larry also may be the product of the system, and the system may not be around for long.

LaDainian has shown that he can put up the numbers consistently, regardless of the system/coach/OL.

LaDainian and Larry are about the same age.

One thing that looks good for Larry is that he has produced better per-game rushing numbers than Priest Holmes did in his best year (if you take out Larry's 7 games where he split carries).

Larry seems like a reincarnated Priest Holmes, but his rushing numbers are even better.

It is hard to tell whether he actually is a better rusher, or he is just getting more opportunities.

With keepers, you want the sure thing.

LaDainian is the sure thing.

Larry has a good chance at being better, but he is not a sure thing.

You can also back up LaDainian with Michael Turner much more safely than Larry with Tony R.
I have to disagree on the LT2 is durable part. For the past 2 seasons I've seen him just not produce in December. He does great Weeks 1-13, but for fantasy playoffs he doesn't cut it.Granted he is injured right now (ribs) but that's part of the equation.

I'm not saying LJ is any more durable (yet to play a 300 carry full season), but the statement that LT2 is durable may be flawed....

 

Dancing Bear

Footballguy
I would definitely take LT. A proven commodity on every down under a variety of team situations.LJ is not an every down back; he's had two years to try and figure out blitz coverages and Trent Green has taken a beating with him back there.Not only that but Roaf and Shields will not be there to provide the holes that he now has enjoyed.

 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
Also, I'd be curious to see some research on it, but my experience tells me that RBs who take over the full-time job in the last half of the season tend to put up artificially inflated numbers. I'm thinking of Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Willis McGahee, and William Green in particular, although I'm sure if we looked hard enough we could find lots of examples. I could theorize that it has something to do with the RB at midseason having fresh legs and facing already-worn-out defenses.

Name the last RB you can think of that came on like gangbusters over the last half of the season and maintained production at anywhere NEAR that level the next season.
FWP?I agree it is rare, but Willie comes to mind right away. All the others did fade next year (note - see Round Table Week 16 for this topic).

 

SSOG

Moderator
Also, I'd be curious to see some research on it, but my experience tells me that RBs who take over the full-time job in the last half of the season tend to put up artificially inflated numbers. I'm thinking of Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Willis McGahee, and William Green in particular, although I'm sure if we looked hard enough we could find lots of examples. I could theorize that it has something to do with the RB at midseason having fresh legs and facing already-worn-out defenses.

Name the last RB you can think of that came on like gangbusters over the last half of the season and maintained production at anywhere NEAR that level the next season.
FWP?I agree it is rare, but Willie comes to mind right away. All the others did fade next year (note - see Round Table Week 16 for this topic).
FWP didn't come on like gangbusters over the last half of the season. He came on like gangbusters in the last GAME of the season, and then he "maintained that production" to the tune of finishing 19th overall for RBs.Not exactly the sort of thing you want to give up Tomlinson over.

 

SoloMatisse

Footballguy
Name the last RB you can think of that came on like gangbusters over the last half of the season and maintained production at anywhere NEAR that level the next season.

My first post on this site...forgive me for being a rookie, but I'll still point out the obvious. The last RB who came on like gangbusters filling in down the stretch to end a season was last year, Larry Johnson, and uh, you can see obviously he wasn't exactly dissappointing this season. And TWO rock solid gangbuster finishes in back to back seasons is all the proof I need that this man is for real. Flip a coin between he and Tomlinson, though. I love LJ's purely brutal running ability and scoring potential starting MORE than 8 games, but I love Tomlinson's versatility. Id take LJ by a nose.

 

wannabee

Footballguy
Also, could you not have put Rudi Johnson, when he took over for an injured Dillon, in the same discussion? He has not looked back since. He has had two solid seasons since.

 

wannabee

Footballguy
Name the last RB you can think of that came on like gangbusters over the last half of the season and maintained production at anywhere NEAR that level the next season.
My first post on this site...forgive me for being a rookie, but I'll still point out the obvious. The last RB who came on like gangbusters filling in down the stretch to end a season was last year, Larry Johnson, and uh, you can see obviously he wasn't exactly dissappointing this season. And TWO rock solid gangbuster finishes in back to back seasons is all the proof I need that this man is for real. Flip a coin between he and Tomlinson, though. I love LJ's purely brutal running ability and scoring potential starting MORE than 8 games, but I love Tomlinson's versatility. Id take LJ by a nose.

Oh, and welcome :hey:

 

gman8343

What would Lemmy do?
LT's a better back, but LJ is in a simply incredible system (and he seems like a pretty darn good back himself). If nothing changes with KC (Roaf/Shields back etc.) I don't see any reason LJ can't be the #1 fantasy scorer next season. He's up there with LT and Alexander as the most dominant fantasy player. Flip a coin and hope for the best.

 

Organized Chaos

Footballguy
Also, I'd be curious to see some research on it, but my experience tells me that RBs who take over the full-time job in the last half of the season tend to put up artificially inflated numbers. I'm thinking of Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Willis McGahee, and William Green in particular, although I'm sure if we looked hard enough we could find lots of examples. I could theorize that it has something to do with the RB at midseason having fresh legs and facing already-worn-out defenses.

Name the last RB you can think of that came on like gangbusters over the last half of the season and maintained production at anywhere NEAR that level the next season.
Ummm..I'll take Larry Johnson for 100$ please?Last year LJ did the same thing, so I guess you could say his production was near last years...

 

Lord of the Rings

Footballguy
Let's assume that Priest decides to retire.  Who do you keep in a one player keeper league?

I asked this question a few weeks back when LJ was just becoming the starter for the remainder of the year, but I wanted to ask again after seeing how LJ has performed over the last few weeks.
Unless your league requires you to submit keeper designations immediately following the conclusion of the fantasy season, I think it's still waaaaay to early to tell. Wait and see what happens during the offseason. You never know if Roaf or Shields are going to retire, or if SD trades Tomlinson for a shut-down corner, or what.
Facing this situation as we speak. I have LT, LJ, Westbrook and JJ, can only keep 1. Leaning towards keeping LT and trying to trade LJ, but this is absolutely a tough call.Patience in making this decision would seem to be a necessity to be sure. However, in some keeper leagues (including a couple of the ones I'm in) you can make trades up to and even after making keeper designations. Certainly one of these 2 studs would be worth trading before you have to dump one into the draft pool for next year. If you're hurting at another position then obviously either LT or LJ could help solve that problem in a trade. But if you wait too long to trade LJ, for instance, and things in KC work themselves out (Roaf, Shields, Vermeil all leave/retire, etc) then it might be harder to sell another on LJ. Ugh.

 

SSOG

Moderator
My first post on this site...forgive me for being a rookie, but I'll still point out the obvious. The last RB who came on like gangbusters filling in down the stretch to end a season was last year, Larry Johnson, and uh, you can see obviously he wasn't exactly dissappointing this season. And TWO rock solid gangbuster finishes in back to back seasons is all the proof I need that this man is for real. Flip a coin between he and Tomlinson, though. I love LJ's purely brutal running ability and scoring potential starting MORE than 8 games, but I love Tomlinson's versatility. Id take LJ by a nose.
Nothing to forgive. Everyone's a rookie at some point. You used passable spelling, grammar, and punctuation, so I like you already. Welcome. :) Anyway, if the reason backs come on like gangbusters is because they're fresh while defenses are not, then this year's LJ isn't a good example. He was still relatively fresh again when he took over.

Also, could you not have put Rudi Johnson, when he took over for an injured Dillon, in the same discussion? He has not looked back since. He has had two solid seasons since.
Yes, Rudi Johnson I concede without question. Thanks.Anyway, I still maintain that the loss of Vermeil, Roaf, or Shields would drastically hurt LJ's value, and all 3 of them are likely to be gone in a couple of years. That means if you keep LJ you have him for one more season, but if you keep Tomlinson he's still got potentially YEARS worth of high-production left in him. So if their scoring potential is about equal for next year, and LT's is drastically higher for every year after, I still think LT is the best play.

 

bryhamm

Footballguy
Let's assume that Priest decides to retire.  Who do you keep in a one player keeper league?

I asked this question a few weeks back when LJ was just becoming the starter for the remainder of the year, but I wanted to ask again after seeing how LJ has performed over the last few weeks.
Unless your league requires you to submit keeper designations immediately following the conclusion of the fantasy season, I think it's still waaaaay to early to tell. Wait and see what happens during the offseason. You never know if Roaf or Shields are going to retire, or if SD trades Tomlinson for a shut-down corner, or what.
Facing this situation as we speak. I have LT, LJ, Westbrook and JJ, can only keep 1. Leaning towards keeping LT and trying to trade LJ, but this is absolutely a tough call.Patience in making this decision would seem to be a necessity to be sure. However, in some keeper leagues (including a couple of the ones I'm in) you can make trades up to and even after making keeper designations. Certainly one of these 2 studs would be worth trading before you have to dump one into the draft pool for next year. If you're hurting at another position then obviously either LT or LJ could help solve that problem in a trade. But if you wait too long to trade LJ, for instance, and things in KC work themselves out (Roaf, Shields, Vermeil all leave/retire, etc) then it might be harder to sell another on LJ. Ugh.
Wow, sounds like we drafted similarly. I kept LT from last year, got Westy in the 4th round and LJ in the 6th round. Rode LT and Westy early, then put in LJ once he was named the starter. I tried trading Westy away to boost my WRs, but with Chad Johnson and Hines Ward I was looking for only elite WRs and no one would trade with me. I had thoughts of trading LJ, but I thought it would be better to hang on to him for the playoffs. I'm glad I did as LT put up goose eggs for me (TD only) and LJ was my horse and won me the title.
 

Helm

Fruitcake
LaDainian Tomlinson-Born: Jun 23, 1979Larry Johnson-Born: Nov 19, 1979I picked LT simply because he is the complete package. If I was a coach he would bring so many options to the table on the snap of every play. If the offense itself came to a point were it was completely one dimensional, in this case only being able to rush. A team with LJ running a sweep to the right has no other option once he gets the ball. A team with LT has the option to pass so the defense won't exactly sworm to him, and if they do there's that open WR/TE giving them another dimension. Before the snap even occurs LT is a proven receiver as well, putting in more questions for the D to figure out. Both have great FB's in front of them. Kansas City has a dominant Offensive Line, San Diego has an adequate OL. As a person LT went to a christian college and has had no problems with the law. LJ is currently fighting a domestic dispute that occured while he was on diversion for a different domestic altercation.

 

Islander

Footballguy
I say Tomlinson. Johnson has the potential to outproduce Tomlinson, but as soon as Roaf/Shield/Vermeil retire, his value takes a susbtantial hit. Like, catastrophic. Tomlinson holds his value a lot better.

It's like they say, you can't win the league in the first round, but you can lose it. Basically, with stud picks, you're looking to minimize risk, and in my mind, Tomlinson minimizes risk without sacrificing too much on upside.
:goodposting: And if you are allowed to keep your player for several years, LT has more long-term value (next 3-4 yds) than LJ, for most reasons stated above.

Redraft I could see the argument for LJ, but this poll is about a keeper...

 

jeremyx13

Footballguy
I have the luxury of keeping LJ for the cost of a 6th rounder next year (we move up two rounds each season to keep a player, max 3 years) but if it wasn't going to cost me anything I would go with LT just for known commodity sake. I would difinitely draft LJ the first chance I got though.

 

EdwardCat

Footballguy
If LT didn't get hurt and bomb the last 4 weeks, he'd be winning this poll by a landslide. People are fickle. (Including myself)

 

KevT

Footballguy
If LT didn't get hurt and bomb the last 4 weeks, he'd be winning this poll by a landslide. People are fickle. (Including myself)
2 years straight that LT has been injured. Last year it was the groin and this year it was the ribs. Sure those injuries could be random, but they might not be. Give me LJ and his awesome oline (if they all return, or even just Roaf).
 

Cookiemonster

Footballguy
Larry also may be the product of the system, and the system may not be around for long.

LaDainian and Larry are about the same age.
Latest word is that Shields AND Roaf are concidering retirement. If that holds true, I'd rather have Jordan than Johnson (ppr of course).
 

Cookiemonster

Footballguy
I would have to lean LJ as KC seems to be WAY more committed to the run (Vermeil).
Remember the 'Greatest show on Turf'? Granted, Faulk put up sick #s there, but L.J. is not the same kind of back. Vermeil is not overly commited to the run, but has one of the best run-blocking lines in football. He plays to the strength of his personnel which won't be the same for much longer. L.T. will do what he does with any kind of supporting cast. I'll take L.T. in a redraft, then trade him for the house come December.
 

DropKick

Footballguy
There will be fewer question marks next September, but I'm leaning toward LJ here. And Tomlinson's biggest strength is what worries me the most. The sheer number of touches is unbelievable and so is his track record of staying on the field. But how much longer can he keep it up?With one week to go in his 5th season, LT has surpassed 2,000 touches - averaging more than 400 touches per season. In contrast, LJ has only about 500 touches. So, they are basically the same age but LT has considerably more wear on the tires.

 

stevejohnson

Footballguy
LT has done it for several years while LJ has had less then a full season. Both players are great but I would keep LT and look to trade LJ if you can only keep one.

 

Dancing Bear

Footballguy
LT is still the best choice here.The entire Kansas City offense is in question here, and it makes no since to risk keeping LJ when LT is a complete known.The Chiefs will loose Green, Holmes, Gonzalez, Roaf and Shields sometime in the next 1 - 3 years. Worse yet, Holmes is RB #1, and he could come back healthy or pseudo-healthy for the next 2 to 3 years completely wiping out any worth that LJ has a fantasy back.There is so much unknown and possible problems at KC that IMHO it makes LJ a huge risk compared with LT.

 

weasel3515

Footballguy
I would still go with LT2 for four reasons:#1 It is not a given Priest retires. If he stays around you know LJ's numbers won't be as gaudy as LT2's.#2 Roaf and Shields may retire. As Blaylock showed last year. ANYONE could run behind that O-line. If Vermeil is gone it only makes the situation dicier.#3 While LT2 has gotten dinged up this year, LJ's uprights running style (ala Chris Brown) lends him to taking more hits. It is only a matter of time before he gets hurt.#4 Most importantly. LJ is not as gifted of a runner. This is a continuation of point #2. If LJ were starting in Arizona he wouldn't even sniff 1,000 yards. Go back to his college years. When he faced pathetic defenses he rumbled for 250 yds. When he faced the top three Big Ten defenses his senior year (Michigan, Ohio St., Iowa) he didn't even get close to 100 yards.

 

Tackling Dummies

Footballguy
I would still go with LT2 for four reasons:

#1 It is not a given Priest retires. If he stays around you know LJ's numbers won't be as gaudy as LT2's.

#2 Roaf and Shields may retire. As Blaylock showed last year. ANYONE could run behind that O-line. If Vermeil is gone it only makes the situation dicier.

#3 While LT2 has gotten dinged up this year, LJ's uprights running style (ala Chris Brown) lends him to taking more hits. It is only a matter of time before he gets hurt.

#4 Most importantly. LJ is not as gifted of a runner. This is a continuation of point #2. If LJ were starting in Arizona he wouldn't even sniff 1,000 yards. Go back to his college years. When he faced pathetic defenses he rumbled for 250 yds. When he faced the top three Big Ten defenses his senior year (Michigan, Ohio St., Iowa) he didn't even get close to 100 yards.
Are you a Raider, Bronco or Charger fan?
 

SSOG

Moderator
Are you a Raider, Bronco or Charger fan?
Raider and Bronco fans would have more reason to hate Tomlinson than Johnson. That said, I agree that it's preposterous to suggest that Johnson is a below-average runner. He's very very good. I'm not ready to anoint him top-5 for NFL purposes until we see him out from behind that line, but top 50%, no problem.
 

KevT

Footballguy
LT has done it for several years while LJ has had less then a full season. Both players are great but I would keep LT and look to trade LJ if you can only keep one.
LJ has done it for 2 years basically. Last year he filled in for Priest, after Blaylock got hurt, and did very well. This year he's been awesome.If the offensive line returns next year, LJ will again be a top 3 RB.

 

diesel7982

Footballguy
If LT didn't get hurt and bomb the last 4 weeks, he'd be winning this poll by a landslide. People are fickle. (Including myself)
Could have something to do with LJ being on a 2400 yard pace in his 8 games as a starter.
 

EdwardCat

Footballguy
No question about this anymore. LJ is heads and shoulders the best back ever to play the game. No one has ever performed at this level before.

 

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