LT (1 Viewer)

[OnTheReg]

Where do you stand on LT? In two games, Tomlinson has carried 12 times for 28 yards and caught three passes for 26 yards.

Where are you seeing him in your mock's (or real drafts) go? Who would you take ahead of him? Who would you take him ahead of? Where will he finish at the end of the season for RBs? Everyone talks about how that toe nagged him last year, and he was 7th overall.

Will he improve on last year? Or was that the start of the falling off the cliff?

 

[prgromek]

He usually goes late 1st-round, sometimes early 2nd. I'll let somebody else take the risk this year. The upside isn't close to what it once was (this is Rivers' team now) and securing the Sproles handcuff is too costly. I'm staying away.

 

[David Yudkin]

Lots of threads on LT. Try searching . . .

 

[jobarules]

The way I see it even if he has only 1100 yds rushing and 40 catches and sprinkles in 10-12 tds thats still a pretty damn good RB1.

 

[OnTheReg]

The way I see it even if he has only 1100 yds rushing and 40 catches and sprinkles in 10-12 tds thats still a pretty damn good RB1.

I agree - and I'd say that's kind of a pessimistic outlook for his season too, assuming he stays healthy, isn't it?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

the biggest problem LT will face this year is his FB is weak or isnt on the field, and his starting RG is a rookie or a stiff and so is his starting RT.

 

[OnTheReg]

the biggest problem LT will face this year is his FB is weak or isnt on the field, and his starting RG is a rookie or a stiff and so is his starting RT.

As a Chargers fan, what are you expecting his final numbers to be?

 

[Gr00vus]

If he stays healthy he'll compile decent stats by default given their offense and the weakness of their division.

I figure him for around 1300 combined yards and 12-16 total TDs.

Solid 1st round pick.

 

[Wadsworth]

Lots of threads on LT. Try searching . . .

Let me take a shot at translating this for the OP. There are many other threads about LT where David Yudkin and many other knowledgeable posters have discussed at length LT's fantasy potential this season including his production in the first two preseason games. It would be in your best interest to use the "Search" feature to find one of these threads because it will very likely contain more and better quality information about your query. Knowledgeable posters generally don't like posting their opinions multiple times in multiple threads. Also, when you search instead of starting a new thread the Shark Pool isn't littered with a new thread on MJD, LT, Moss, etc everyday when someone has a concern or opinion. It makes reading and posting on this message board a better experience for all.

 

[Knobs]

After watching him in the preseason thus far, I think his value has increased, but my desire to get the guy has decreased. He hasn't looked so good.

 

[jobarules]

My projections:

280 att, 1150 yds, 4.1 avg, 10 tds, 45 rec, 320 yds, 2 tds

Has him ranked 3rd in my ppr What am I doing wrong because those projections dont seem to extraordinary.

 

[bocksheesh]

the biggest problem LT will face this year is his FB is weak or isnt on the field, and his starting RG is a rookie or a stiff and so is his starting RT.

This is dead on. While everyone focuses on LT's health and the risk of the 30-year old dropoff, lost amid all that is the reality that the Chargers offensive line is considerably worse than it was just two seasons ago.This was a problem for LT last year and will be a problem this year (I fear).I LOVE LT and still consider him a mid-first round pick just b/c he's safe-ish. But the real risk to him is that the SD OLine turns out to be even worse than it was last year in the running game, and LT has no holes to run through.And I sadly could see that happening.

 

[SSOG]

My projections:280 att, 1150 yds, 4.1 avg, 10 tds, 45 rec, 320 yds, 2 tdsHas him ranked 3rd in my ppr What am I doing wrong because those projections dont seem to extraordinary.

You aren't doing anything wrong, it's the nature of preseason projections. Odds are that *SOMEONE* is going to go off for 2000 yards and 20 TDs, because someone does pretty much every year... but nobody's going to PREDICT 2000/20, since that's such an outlandish total, so everyone gets nice safe projections. Right now that 1470/12 might rank 3rd, but by the end of the season, after someone like DeAngelo goes for 20 TDs and someone like Turner gets 370 carries and someone like Forte comes out of nowhere with 60+ receptions and someone like SJax goes for 2200 total yards, that 1470/12 might only wind up as RB10.As I said, it's a problem with projections- they fail to capture things like upside and downside. Just because Tomlinson's projections rank him 3rd doesn't mean you should automatically consider him the 3rd best fantasy RB- you also have to take into account how likely he is to get you one of those 2000/20 seasons, or how likely he is to fall off the cliff with little to no warning.

 

[Maven]

My projections..

288ruAtt @ 4ypc = 1152yds, 13ruTD, 59rec, 513yds, 2TD = 254 FPTS

 

[Bad_Mo]

With the #8 pick in a 14 teamer, he'll be there for me to ponder. I'm not sure if he's worth the headaches this year.

 

[Wadsworth]

My projections:

280 att, 1150 yds, 4.1 avg, 10 tds, 45 rec, 320 yds, 2 tds

Has him ranked 3rd in my ppr What am I doing wrong because those projections dont seem to extraordinary.

As I said, it's a problem with projections- they fail to capture things like upside and downside. Just because Tomlinson's projections rank him 3rd doesn't mean you should automatically consider him the 3rd best fantasy RB- you also have to take into account how likely he is to get you one of those 2000/20 seasons, or how likely he is to fall off the cliff with little to no warning.

Key point that a lot of folks overlook. A good example is Portis vs Ronnie Brown. A lot of people have them ranked close to each other and your projections for each might be similar. But I personally think Brown has a lot more potential to have one of those huge seasons. That doesn't mean I'd draft Brown over Portis, but it doesn't mean that(just like SSOG said) you have to consider upside and downside beyond simple projections.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

when you play the raiders , chiefs and broncos thats 6 big games for L.T right there alone