M. Bush - still the key to my FF season (1 Viewer)

[Raiderfan32904]

With the torn minuscus of Darren McFadden opening the door, M. Bush now has a clear path to establish his dominance. Now...woah woah...hear me out...

I know the O-line sucks, and we just lost our starting RT Green, and Gallery is out with a broken leg. The O-line is a joke and right now we aren't getting any penetration. Play calling is atrocious as well.

I still think M. Bush is going to lead some teams to a championship.

Here's why:

Eventually, Cable will be arrested and/or suspended by Roger Goodell, and Al Davis will be forced to fire him. As the Raiders players let the realization that the post-season is a mirage, their attitudes will change. They are playing for their future contracts, and I know a lot of them are looking to pad their resume to get out of football purgatory wasteland that is Oakland. For thier own selfish reasons, they will bust their tails to pad individual stats.

Of course, new management will come in and claim that Cable was a simpleton with a short fuse and blame the Hansen incident on the wasted season. Of course, not mentioned is a wide receivers coach with no NFL experience, and exiled ex-USC coaches like Hackett. The current coaching staff is the worst in the NFL. They make Jim Zorn look imaginative, and even the Herminator would be an improvement on playcalling.

The way I figure, two things need to happen (of course after the next three beatdowns). Raiders at 1-7 finally bench JaMarcus, fire Cable.

The new head coach will put Gradkowski or Frye or someone off the street as the Raiders starting QB. They will run a max protect offense, with Fargas in blocking full time. They will stop experimenting with the deep ball, and ve content with dink and dunks. And they will pound the ball with Bush.

Remember, other teams motivations have changed by FF playoffs. Weak teams that are out of the playoffs are dangerous at times when playing playoff bound teams that are trying to rest the wounded. It happened last year with the Raiders when they beat two teams who were bound for the playoffs if they could only beat the Raiders.

The Raiders cannot be any worse than they are. Agree/disagree? If you agree, then there will be an unexpected improvement. Gallery will be back, Schillens will eventually be back. I don't think we'll see McFadden anymore, and that is good news for the Raiders - he gets tackled by a wisp of wind. Bush is stud, and if used in the right scheme, he will thrive. The Raiders FF playoff schedule is sweet with a meeting week 16 (Championship!) against the Browns.

The Raiders will still be 3 or 4 wins, dregs of the NFL, but if you have Bush and make it to the championship round, he can literally singlehandedly lead you to the promised land.

 

[Chaos Commish]

So there.

 

[SuperGreen]

cool story, bro... but...

Of course, new management will come in and claim that Cable was a simpleton with a short fuse and blame the Hansen incident on the wasted season.

what makes you think al wouldn't hire ANOTHER simpleton who is just gonna play all the high draft picks regardless of record/performance?

 

[Raider Nation]

Pull the plug, man. Everyone on this offense is useless.

 

[jobarules]

stop

 

[Debeucci]

...if you look at it from the angle that bush's production couldn't get any worse...

...i'm holding for now. he has a several week window against top rush d's in order to do something astounding. if he can thrive, we'll be geniuses. if he flops, no one will blink an eye. with that being said, if jerome harrison is still available on your waiver wire...

 

[habsfan]

The Raiders cannot be any worse than they are. Agree/disagree? If you agree, then there will be an unexpected improvement.

Wha?Startable fantasy numbers might come from this group on occasion between now and the end of the season but nothing you can predict let alone bank on. It will be the case of the blind squirrel finding a nut.

 

[joffer]

"I love this plan. I'm excited to be a part of it. Let's do it!"

-Pete Vinkman

 

[Big Score]

I like Bush....that didn't come out right...well...yeah it did.

Back on track.

I like the NFL player M. Bush.....just not on that team.

 

[the UFFRM]

I do not believe that scenario to be probable in its entirety but I believe Bush understands that this is his opportunity to show he deserves any sort of second contract so he's got that going for him. I also truly believe Russell will look like an average starting QB if Schilens turns out to be healthy. I think if Bush is to produce it will be a result of the quasi-productivity that a healthy Schilens will provide.

 

[djjosee]

Would you guys drop DMC for Bush for the rest of this year?

 

[comfortably numb]

Pull the plug, man. Everyone on this offense is useless.

Unless your league carries the punter position

 

[tim_whatley]

"I love this plan. I'm excited to be a part of it. Let's do it!"-Pete Vinkman

Tell him about the twinkie.

 

[habsfan]

I do not believe that scenario to be probable in its entirety but I believe Bush understands that this is his opportunity to show he deserves any sort of second contract so he's got that going for him. I also truly believe Russell will look like an average starting QB if Schilens turns out to be healthy. I think if Bush is to produce it will be a result of the quasi-productivity that a healthy Schilens will provide.

I'm honestly not following the "Schilens Effect" here. I understand they were in sync during the preseason but what happens now? Does Schilens make Russell suddenly more accurate or is he just better able to deal with his inaccuracy?

 

[Knobs]

With the torn minuscus of Darren McFadden opening the door, M. Bush now has a clear path to establish his dominance. Now...woah woah...hear me out...I know the O-line sucks, and we just lost our starting RT Green, and Gallery is out with a broken leg. The O-line is a joke and right now we aren't getting any penetration. Play calling is atrocious as well. I still think M. Bush is going to lead some teams to a championship.

I salute you folk for sticking with your team through such rough times but c'mon...this is a fantasy wasteland.

 

[jobarules]

I do not believe that scenario to be probable in its entirety but I believe Bush understands that this is his opportunity to show he deserves any sort of second contract so he's got that going for him. I also truly believe Russell will look like an average starting QB if Schilens turns out to be healthy. I think if Bush is to produce it will be a result of the quasi-productivity that a healthy Schilens will provide.

I'm honestly not following the "Schilens Effect" here. I understand they were in sync during the preseason but what happens now? Does Schilens make Russell suddenly more accurate or is he just better able to deal with his inaccuracy?

I thought perhaps he was 7 feet tall

 

[Raider Nation]

I want to be credited in the Shark Pool FAQ for starting the "key to your fantasy season" shtick!

Gotta get something out of this horrid prediction.

 

[Black]

"Schilens Effect", aka Schilens Uncertainty Principle

def'n:

The more crappily the QB performs, combined with the crappy playcalling, the less precisely the rest of the team's level of crappiness can actually be known.

I am pretty sure that dude with the blimp said that.

 

[Aardvarks]

I just want to know what "woah" means....

 

[jafo]

LOL

 

[menobrown]

I was going to come in this thread to hurl insults at anyone waiting for a Raider to be the key to their fantasy season and than I realized I'm rostering Schilens in almost every league hoping he can help save the day for a few of my teams.

 

[Raider Nation]

I just want to know what "woah" means....

He dated Meadow for awhile.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

For anyone looking to trade him now that he has a wee bit of upside with DMC's injury....Was offered Burleson straight up for M. Bush today

 

[JamesTheScot]

What do you guys make of Fargas last week? Clearly the more productive of the three.

It's not like Bush has been working magic with his touches. I think it's just going to be another few weeks of Bush splitting carries. If Davis won't give up on Russell yet, who thinks he'll give up on McFadden when he gets back and stick with Bush?

That same mentality scares me as a Schilens owner. I can see Davis pressuring Cable/whoever to make sure DHB gets PT at the expense of Schilens and any other WR on the roster.

 

[TenTimes]

I'd like to travel to san francisco this weekend

 

[Raiderfan32904]

OK. I'll admit, I had a few beers and I let my growing discontent at watching Raider games make a valid point turn into a rant.

Point is, not everyone missed the point of this post. Someone had suggested his value is as high as Burleson, with upside. Someone else correctly got the (and I admit perhaps faulty logic) that you don't know how bad a team truly sucks until you take away the biggest part of the suck. The Schillens factor? LOL.

All I can tell you is that NFL headlines in week #4 in any given season will have major differences from headlines in weeks #12-15. McFadden's knee will be an issue the rest of the year, just as it has for the Bucs WR Antonio Bryant, who is still trying to come back and from the same injury in early August.

With only Fargas left as a viable runner, no one is left to challenge Bush for the workload. Fargas is a third down back, and helleva good blocker. But he should not challenge Bush going forward. With coaching turnover and new QB and new philosophy, Bush could be a bellcow in the final weeks. These are the most important for the FF playoffs.

My FF team (I know, nobody cares) is a very strong 4-0. Next 3 opponents are weak and have bye issues, so the schedule looks like I'll go 7-0 with any kind of luck. I am already looking to the playoffs. Bush would be my sneaky flex play in the championship week. I have to sac up to use him, I know. But I think things will be clearer later in the year. If I decide to not use him, at least I have kept him from the other guy.

 

[The Comedian]

he can literally singlehandedly lead you to the promised land.

 

[kupcho1]

Grade A shtick

 

[jaylasoul14]

Do any Raider homers know whose been getting more 1st team reps in practice?

 

[California]

This is the first time I've ever seen the impending arrest of the head coach as a possible upside for a player.

 

[nola]

What do you guys make of Fargas last week? Clearly the more productive of the three. It's not like Bush has been working magic with his touches....

Magic, no. But Bush has been the most productive of the three, though that is slim praise.Against Houston, Fargas was 2.4 YPC, Bush 3.3. DMC was sub-zero.2009 seasonM. Bush 30 carries 120 yards 4 YPCDMC 47 carries 146 yards 3.1 YPCFargas 12 carries 32 yards 2.7 YPC2008 seasonBush 4.4 YPCDMC 4.4 YPCFargas 3.9 YPCThere hasn't been a time when Fargas was clearly better than either of the other two RBs.

 

[kupcho1]

This is the first time I've ever seen the impending arrest of the head coach as a possible upside for a player.

[billsimmons]Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Oakland Raiders

[/billsimmons]

 

[JamesTheScot]

OK. I'll admit, I had a few beers and I let my growing discontent at watching Raider games make a valid point turn into a rant. Point is, not everyone missed the point of this post. Someone had suggested his value is as high as Burleson, with upside. Someone else correctly got the (and I admit perhaps faulty logic) that you don't know how bad a team truly sucks until you take away the biggest part of the suck. The Schillens factor? LOL.All I can tell you is that NFL headlines in week #4 in any given season will have major differences from headlines in weeks #12-15. McFadden's knee will be an issue the rest of the year, just as it has for the Bucs WR Antonio Bryant, who is still trying to come back and from the same injury in early August.With only Fargas left as a viable runner, no one is left to challenge Bush for the workload. Fargas is a third down back, and helleva good blocker. But he should not challenge Bush going forward. With coaching turnover and new QB and new philosophy, Bush could be a bellcow in the final weeks. These are the most important for the FF playoffs. My FF team (I know, nobody cares) is a very strong 4-0. Next 3 opponents are weak and have bye issues, so the schedule looks like I'll go 7-0 with any kind of luck. I am already looking to the playoffs. Bush would be my sneaky flex play in the championship week. I have to sac up to use him, I know. But I think things will be clearer later in the year. If I decide to not use him, at least I have kept him from the other guy.

That's all fine and good...except that it doesn't explain why Bush will do more with <60% of the RB touches than DMC did with <60% of the RB touches. Nor does it explain why Fargas got more touches than both DMC and Bush last week. And even if DMC isn't 100% when he comes back, he's still going to get touches that would otherwise be going to Bush and Fargas.It just looks like a mess to me. And I'm not a Bush hater. You're the homer though, is there some reason that we don't see that explains Fargas's touch advantage last week? Or why with a healthy Fargas and semi-healthy DMC that Bush would exceed a 50% threshold? Or why he'll do better than the sub-4.0 YPC he's been pounding out the last three games?Respectfully skeptical is what I am.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Here's how I see it, Bush gets the priveledge of playing the Giants, Eagles, Jets the next 3 weeks. I really don't see Michael Bush shining during this stretch, I'm sorry but I just don't see this happening. Then McFadden should come back and play the Chargers, should be impressive, then it's bye week time. At this point I am sure McFadden will get the vast majority of snaps for the Chiefs game. The schedule here just doesn't work well in Bush's favor, it's just reality.

 

[JamesTheScot]

What do you guys make of Fargas last week? Clearly the more productive of the three.

It's not like Bush has been working magic with his touches....

Magic, no. But Bush has been the most productive of the three, though that is slim praise.Against Houston, Fargas was 2.4 YPC, Bush 3.3. DMC was sub-zero.

2009 season

M. Bush 30 carries 120 yards 4 YPC

DMC 47 carries 146 yards 3.1 YPC

Fargas 12 carries 32 yards 2.7 YPC

2008 season

Bush 4.4 YPC

DMC 4.4 YPC

Fargas 3.9 YPC

There hasn't been a time when Fargas was clearly better than either of the other two RBs.

With respect, he was last week. I never said Fargas was more productive last season or even through the first three weeks of this season. As I stated, Fargas was clearly more productive in week 4. Just look at the touches and yardage totals. Sure, his ypc was lower, but since why is that the gold standard for one game? Why was a "not that talented" RB who was inactive the first two weeks of the season leaned upon more heavily than both the "clearly more talented" and younger backs? So he had a lower ypc than Bush last week. He got more touches for some reason.And Bush had a couple of nice runs week 1 that are skewing that ypc. Given last year's totals and this season's struggles, I'm not hanging my hat on Bush's week 1 numbers...especially when he looked like nothing special against Houston and Kansas City in weeks 2 and 4. If anything, Bush's ypc has been getting worse with each game despite what look on paper to be juicy matchups.

Again, I'm not a Bush hater or a Fargas fanboy. But there's something crappy going on in Oakland and it isn't smelling any better to me just because DMC's meniscus decided to take a break. Does it really matter whether you get 30% or 70% of a turd?

 

[nola]

What do you guys make of Fargas last week? Clearly the more productive of the three.

It's not like Bush has been working magic with his touches....

Magic, no. But Bush has been the most productive of the three, though that is slim praise.Against Houston, Fargas was 2.4 YPC, Bush 3.3. DMC was sub-zero.

2009 season

M. Bush 30 carries 120 yards 4 YPC

DMC 47 carries 146 yards 3.1 YPC

Fargas 12 carries 32 yards 2.7 YPC

2008 season

Bush 4.4 YPC

DMC 4.4 YPC

Fargas 3.9 YPC

There hasn't been a time when Fargas was clearly better than either of the other two RBs.

With respect, he was last week. I never said Fargas was more productive last season or even through the first three weeks of this season. As I stated, Fargas was clearly more productive in week 4. Just look at the touches and yardage totals. Sure, his ypc was lower, but since why is that the gold standard for one game? Why was a "not that talented" RB who was inactive the first two weeks of the season leaned upon more heavily than both the "clearly more talented" and younger backs? So he had a lower ypc than Bush last week. He got more touches for some reason.And Bush had a couple of nice runs week 1 that are skewing that ypc. Given last year's totals and this season's struggles, I'm not hanging my hat on Bush's week 1 numbers...especially when he looked like nothing special against Houston and Kansas City in weeks 2 and 4. If anything, Bush's ypc has been getting worse with each game despite what look on paper to be juicy matchups.

Again, I'm not a Bush hater or a Fargas fanboy. But there's something crappy going on in Oakland and it isn't smelling any better to me just because DMC's meniscus decided to take a break. Does it really matter whether you get 30% or 70% of a turd?

Perhaps our disagreement is semantic. You appear to make the case that getting more touches means being more productive. I disagree. I think "productivity" is measured on what is done with said touches. Fargas rushes:

1-10-OAK21 (8:07) J.Fargas right tackle to OAK 22 for 1 yard (J.Zgonina, D.Ryans)

1-10-OAK27 (7:42) J.Fargas right tackle to OAK 29 for 2 yards (A.Okoye; M.Williams)

2-8-OAK29 (7:08) J.Fargas left tackle to OAK 31 for 2 yards (J.Zgonina, A.Okoye)

1-10-HOU36 (4:41) J.Fargas left tackle to HST 35 for 1 yard (De.Robinson)

2-10-HOU16 (3:02) J.Fargas right end to HST 15 for 1 yard (B.Pollard, B.Cushing)

2-15-OAK19 14) (Shotgun) J.Fargas right end to OAK 32 for 13 yards

1-10-OAK1 (9:00) J.Fargas right tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (B.Cushing)

1-10-OAK47 01) J.Fargas up the middle to OAK 48 for 1 yard (B.Cushing)

2-9-OAK48 (15:00) J.Fargas left tackle to OAK 49 for 1 yard (G.Quin)

2-10-HOU38 (13:34) (Shotgun) J.Fargas left guard to HST 35 for 3 yards (A.Smith, B.Cushing)

Bush rushes:

3-13-OAK11 (6:45) (Shotgun) M.Bush up the middle to OAK 12 for 1 yard

1-20-HOU41 (3:57) M.Bush right guard to HST 36 for 5 yards (B.Pollard, D.Ryans)

1-10-OAK25 (3:10) (Shotgun) M.Bush up the middle to OAK 29 for 4 yards

Nothing especially impressive by either of these two, but nothing to say that Fargas was clearly more productive. 10 carries for 27 yards in clearly unproductive by any measure. I'm not saying that Bush would have certainly done better with seven additional carries. Just that Fargas certainly didn't look like a clearly superior option.

Why did they give Fargas more touches? Don't know. Maybe because he hasn't fumbled yet. Maybe he was better in pass protection. Maybe just because they are the Raiders, and figure no opposing coach in his right mind would gameplan for Fargas when the other guys are available. The Raiders do all sorts of goofy sh...tuff. Did they cut Garcia because Jamarcus was clearly better?

I think we have seen enough of Fargas over the years to know what his upside is. Its pretty mediocre. I'd like to see Bush with a few 15-20 carry games to get a better read on his upside.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

That's all fine and good...except that it doesn't explain why Bush will do more with <60% of the RB touches than DMC did with <60% of the RB touches. Nor does it explain why Fargas got more touches than both DMC and Bush last week. And even if DMC isn't 100% when he comes back, he's still going to get touches that would otherwise be going to Bush and Fargas.It just looks like a mess to me. And I'm not a Bush hater. You're the homer though, is there some reason that we don't see that explains Fargas's touch advantage last week? Or why with a healthy Fargas and semi-healthy DMC that Bush would exceed a 50% threshold? Or why he'll do better than the sub-4.0 YPC he's been pounding out the last three games?Respectfully skeptical is what I am.

For now, Fargas brings more professionalism to this position than Bush. He's their best blocking back, I think even better than the fullback Oneill. With him in the backfield, the Raiders at least look like a threat to execute plays. But he is older and slower than he used to be. Fargas can't catch a ball with any consistency. Point is valid that the next 3 games for the Raiders are a gauntlet. They should pray just to keep healthy. And McFadden owners, I don't say this just to hate (well maybe a little), but your boy is worth dropping on the waiver wire and I mean immediately. Torn minuscus is an injury that is more like 4-6 weeks and then the player favors the knee and can't execute cuts (not that McFadden could cut on a good knee).So my forecast is it will get worse before it gets better. Once the coaching turnover is in place, and the new staff tries to make some chicken salad out of the dung, we should get back to being mediocre and even surprise a few teams. Raiders today brought in exiled Langston Walker who was cut from Buffalo. He would be an instant upgrade over the injured mophandle Green. If the O-line can hold its own, and we get a roll out passer like...(I personally like Charlie Frye), then we can start to look like a real NFL team. On an average looking team, Michael Bush will be a stud. He has the power, and natural inside running ability, and he brings pain when you try to arm tackle him.I too am trying to remain respectively skeptial of this mess. My head hurts on Sunday afternoons. My FF squad kicking butt is small consolation. I watch the TV and I tend to revert to my native language..."hijo de su chingada...."

 

[Da Guru]

I think that both Bush and DMC could be very good RBs in the right situation, but they are not in the right situation.

 

[J R]

on the whole Fargas was more productive and Bush had a couple of long runs in week 1 skewing his YPC thing:

Fargas rushes:

1-10-OAK21 (8:07) J.Fargas right tackle to OAK 22 for 1 yard (J.Zgonina, D.Ryans)

1-10-OAK27 (7:42) J.Fargas right tackle to OAK 29 for 2 yards (A.Okoye; M.Williams)

2-8-OAK29 (7:08) J.Fargas left tackle to OAK 31 for 2 yards (J.Zgonina, A.Okoye)

1-10-HOU36 (4:41) J.Fargas left tackle to HST 35 for 1 yard (De.Robinson)

2-10-HOU16 (3:02) J.Fargas right end to HST 15 for 1 yard (B.Pollard, B.Cushing)

2-15-OAK19 14) (Shotgun) J.Fargas right end to OAK 32 for 13 yards

1-10-OAK1 (9:00) J.Fargas right tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (B.Cushing)

1-10-OAK47 01) J.Fargas up the middle to OAK 48 for 1 yard (B.Cushing)

2-9-OAK48 (15:00) J.Fargas left tackle to OAK 49 for 1 yard (G.Quin)

2-10-HOU38 (13:34) (Shotgun) J.Fargas left guard to HST 35 for 3 yards (A.Smith, B.Cushing)

The bolded is a 13-yd run that came at the end of the 1st half with the Raiders 81 yards away from the EZ. Would it be wrong of me to assume that one was a gimmie that skewed his YPC?

 

[cstu]

As the Raiders players let the realization that the post-season is a mirage

That ship has long sailed.

 

[cstu]

on the whole Fargas was more productive and Bush had a couple of long runs in week 1 skewing his YPC thing:

Fargas rushes:

1-10-OAK21 (8:07) J.Fargas right tackle to OAK 22 for 1 yard (J.Zgonina, D.Ryans)

1-10-OAK27 (7:42) J.Fargas right tackle to OAK 29 for 2 yards (A.Okoye; M.Williams)

2-8-OAK29 (7:08) J.Fargas left tackle to OAK 31 for 2 yards (J.Zgonina, A.Okoye)

1-10-HOU36 (4:41) J.Fargas left tackle to HST 35 for 1 yard (De.Robinson)

2-10-HOU16 (3:02) J.Fargas right end to HST 15 for 1 yard (B.Pollard, B.Cushing)

2-15-OAK19 14) (Shotgun) J.Fargas right end to OAK 32 for 13 yards

1-10-OAK1 (9:00) J.Fargas right tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (B.Cushing)

1-10-OAK47 01) J.Fargas up the middle to OAK 48 for 1 yard (B.Cushing)

2-9-OAK48 (15:00) J.Fargas left tackle to OAK 49 for 1 yard (G.Quin)

2-10-HOU38 (13:34) (Shotgun) J.Fargas left guard to HST 35 for 3 yards (A.Smith, B.Cushing)

The bolded is a 13-yd run that came at the end of the 1st half with the Raiders 81 yards away from the EZ. Would it be wrong of me to assume that one was a gimmie that skewed his YPC?

I was thinking the same thing when I was following the game online.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

on the whole Fargas was more productive and Bush had a couple of long runs in week 1 skewing his YPC thing:

Fargas rushes:

1-10-OAK21 (8:07) J.Fargas right tackle to OAK 22 for 1 yard (J.Zgonina, D.Ryans)

1-10-OAK27 (7:42) J.Fargas right tackle to OAK 29 for 2 yards (A.Okoye; M.Williams)

2-8-OAK29 (7:08) J.Fargas left tackle to OAK 31 for 2 yards (J.Zgonina, A.Okoye)

1-10-HOU36 (4:41) J.Fargas left tackle to HST 35 for 1 yard (De.Robinson)

2-10-HOU16 (3:02) J.Fargas right end to HST 15 for 1 yard (B.Pollard, B.Cushing)

2-15-OAK19 14) (Shotgun) J.Fargas right end to OAK 32 for 13 yards

1-10-OAK1 (9:00) J.Fargas right tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (B.Cushing)

1-10-OAK47 01) J.Fargas up the middle to OAK 48 for 1 yard (B.Cushing)

2-9-OAK48 (15:00) J.Fargas left tackle to OAK 49 for 1 yard (G.Quin)

2-10-HOU38 (13:34) (Shotgun) J.Fargas left guard to HST 35 for 3 yards (A.Smith, B.Cushing)

The bolded is a 13-yd run that came at the end of the 1st half with the Raiders 81 yards away from the EZ. Would it be wrong of me to assume that one was a gimmie that skewed his YPC?

I think that you answered your own question here. A 13 yard draw at the end of the half is an accomplishment to write to Grandma about.Huggy bear still got his hops, but if the O-line were worth a damn, or the play-calling not so predictable, either Bush or Fargas has a chance to put up some numbers.