David Yudkin
Footballguy
Those that have followed my comments over the years should know by now that I have strongly been against drafting a QB in the first round in a 12-team redraft, start 1 QB, close to standard scoring leagues. Up until now, I have basically said never, ever, not ever, draft a QB in the first round. Not ever. Never. (And remember, these comments are intended for REDRAFT leagues where you must DECLARE who your starting QB is each week.)
The rationale was that most of the time, people looked at huge seasons in the prior year and then felt that those numbers would magically reappear in the upcoming season. Sadly, statistical history has shown that rarely do QBs post uber-elite numbers in back-to-back seasons. And with leagues only utlizing 12 QB, the value just would not be there in Year 2 even if the same QB did well (but not as well as the year before).
Last year, people went crazy over Peyton Manning, and some advocated taking him in the Top 5, Top 3, and even #1 overall. I attempted to talk people off of the ledge all off-season, as some people felt that Manning would again make a run at 50 TD and would lap the field of fantasy QB. And we know how that turned out.
Here we are a year later, and I have been looking at the crop of QB this year and am almost ready to suggest that Peyton Manning would make a decent late first round pick. (By the way, that for me is WAY earlier than I would EVER suggest taking a QB.) And here's why.
If you look at the 31 teams other than the Colts, most of them have QB that sudedenly have a fair amount of questions surrounding them. I broke things down into four categories: Guys with Injury Concerns, Players with New Teams, Coaches, or Systems, QB that are Mostly Unproven, and Players on Teams that Lost Key Players on Offense or Have Other Guys Injured. I slotted QB into the most applicable groups, although certainly some of them could be listed in more than one category and some have more concerns than others.
GUYS WITH INJURY CONCERNS:
Palmer, Cuulpepper, Roethlisberger, Brees, Pennington, Grossman
PLAYERS WITH NEW TEAMS, COACHES, OR SYSTEMS:
Green, Brooks, McNair, Carr, Kitna, Johnson, Bulger
QB THAT ARE MOSTLY UNPROVEN:
Simms, Frye, Rivers, Volek, Smith, Losman
PLAYERS ON TEAMS THAT LOST KEY PLAYERS OR HAVE OTHER GUYS WITH INJURIES:
McNabb, Brady, Hasselbeck, Leftwich, Favre
Adding that up, that 24 QB out of 31 other starters. Of course, not all of them will suffer dire consequences to their production (some in fact will likely benefit), but the fact remains that many of them come with some pretty big question marks.
IMO, that leaves only Peyton and Eli Manning, Bledsoe, Delhomme, Plummer, Vick, Warner, and Brunell as guys without limited issues (or in better situations than last year) just from the get go.
And I would be inclined to say that Warner has his own health issues and the addition of Edgerrin James will greatly reduce his number of passing attempts, so he probably is a candidate to be crossed off the list.
That's not a whole lot of players left over that you can feel confident in inserting them into the lineup and not have to worry about.
Looking at Peyton Manning, the loss of Edge *COULD* help his passing numbers, as I personally feel that replacing James and his production will be harder to accomplish on the field than it seems to be on paper. Also, the Colts in the past decade have struggled to have back to back solid seasons defensively, and if the defense drops off even a little, Manning could at a minimum be looking at more passing attempts this year.
Looking at the Colts schedule, one has to wonder if that, too, will force IND to throw the ball more (Road games at NYG, DEN, NE, DAL, and JAC with out of conference home games against CIN, PHI, WAS, and MIA.)
For those that are RB crazed, there does seem to be a ton of RB that can be had 3rd round or later this year (Parker, KJones, Lewis, Droughns, Taylor, Dunn, AGreen, Martin and Bush/Deuce, Dillon/Maroney, Jones/Benson, Bell/Dayne, Foster/Williams, Addai/Rhodes, Brown/White, Gore/Barlow based on current ADP). In the past, RB seemed to be hoarded more in the early going, and that trend may be changing, allowing people to still get decent RB production later on for a change.
As I see it, those extra attempts, yards, and TD many be enough to finally get Peyton Manning to rank as the #1 fantasy QB (surprisingly, he's NEVER ranked #1 in the FBG scoring system--9,4,3,3,4,2,2,3 over the years). And with a lot of questions surrounding many other QB, there may be enough value in scoring differential to make Manning actually WORTH taking him early this year.
So for redraft leagues, the security of simply putting Mannig in at QB without having to worry about all these other QB issues may for once be worth considering. And for those drafting in the end of Round 1, with the choice being taking a shot in the dark at any of a bucket of secord tier RB, guessing amoung 7-8 top WR, or Manning, there may actually be less risk in taking Manning.
Clearly, utilizing the strategy of waiting on QB and selecting several in the middle rounds is ALWAYS and option, and that still may be the way to go. But there may also be additional value in taking those middle round picks and stocking up depth at other positions.
Manning may also be available in the second or third rounds in your league, so having an idea of where he normally goes is also something to be aware of. You may elect not to take Manning early, but IMO he has an excellent chance to represent first round positional value this season.
Anyway, that's just a thought I had and one I will continue to ponder. Feel free to chime in and agree or disagree on this one.
The rationale was that most of the time, people looked at huge seasons in the prior year and then felt that those numbers would magically reappear in the upcoming season. Sadly, statistical history has shown that rarely do QBs post uber-elite numbers in back-to-back seasons. And with leagues only utlizing 12 QB, the value just would not be there in Year 2 even if the same QB did well (but not as well as the year before).
Last year, people went crazy over Peyton Manning, and some advocated taking him in the Top 5, Top 3, and even #1 overall. I attempted to talk people off of the ledge all off-season, as some people felt that Manning would again make a run at 50 TD and would lap the field of fantasy QB. And we know how that turned out.
Here we are a year later, and I have been looking at the crop of QB this year and am almost ready to suggest that Peyton Manning would make a decent late first round pick. (By the way, that for me is WAY earlier than I would EVER suggest taking a QB.) And here's why.
If you look at the 31 teams other than the Colts, most of them have QB that sudedenly have a fair amount of questions surrounding them. I broke things down into four categories: Guys with Injury Concerns, Players with New Teams, Coaches, or Systems, QB that are Mostly Unproven, and Players on Teams that Lost Key Players on Offense or Have Other Guys Injured. I slotted QB into the most applicable groups, although certainly some of them could be listed in more than one category and some have more concerns than others.
GUYS WITH INJURY CONCERNS:
Palmer, Cuulpepper, Roethlisberger, Brees, Pennington, Grossman
PLAYERS WITH NEW TEAMS, COACHES, OR SYSTEMS:
Green, Brooks, McNair, Carr, Kitna, Johnson, Bulger
QB THAT ARE MOSTLY UNPROVEN:
Simms, Frye, Rivers, Volek, Smith, Losman
PLAYERS ON TEAMS THAT LOST KEY PLAYERS OR HAVE OTHER GUYS WITH INJURIES:
McNabb, Brady, Hasselbeck, Leftwich, Favre
Adding that up, that 24 QB out of 31 other starters. Of course, not all of them will suffer dire consequences to their production (some in fact will likely benefit), but the fact remains that many of them come with some pretty big question marks.
IMO, that leaves only Peyton and Eli Manning, Bledsoe, Delhomme, Plummer, Vick, Warner, and Brunell as guys without limited issues (or in better situations than last year) just from the get go.
And I would be inclined to say that Warner has his own health issues and the addition of Edgerrin James will greatly reduce his number of passing attempts, so he probably is a candidate to be crossed off the list.
That's not a whole lot of players left over that you can feel confident in inserting them into the lineup and not have to worry about.
Looking at Peyton Manning, the loss of Edge *COULD* help his passing numbers, as I personally feel that replacing James and his production will be harder to accomplish on the field than it seems to be on paper. Also, the Colts in the past decade have struggled to have back to back solid seasons defensively, and if the defense drops off even a little, Manning could at a minimum be looking at more passing attempts this year.
Looking at the Colts schedule, one has to wonder if that, too, will force IND to throw the ball more (Road games at NYG, DEN, NE, DAL, and JAC with out of conference home games against CIN, PHI, WAS, and MIA.)
For those that are RB crazed, there does seem to be a ton of RB that can be had 3rd round or later this year (Parker, KJones, Lewis, Droughns, Taylor, Dunn, AGreen, Martin and Bush/Deuce, Dillon/Maroney, Jones/Benson, Bell/Dayne, Foster/Williams, Addai/Rhodes, Brown/White, Gore/Barlow based on current ADP). In the past, RB seemed to be hoarded more in the early going, and that trend may be changing, allowing people to still get decent RB production later on for a change.
As I see it, those extra attempts, yards, and TD many be enough to finally get Peyton Manning to rank as the #1 fantasy QB (surprisingly, he's NEVER ranked #1 in the FBG scoring system--9,4,3,3,4,2,2,3 over the years). And with a lot of questions surrounding many other QB, there may be enough value in scoring differential to make Manning actually WORTH taking him early this year.
So for redraft leagues, the security of simply putting Mannig in at QB without having to worry about all these other QB issues may for once be worth considering. And for those drafting in the end of Round 1, with the choice being taking a shot in the dark at any of a bucket of secord tier RB, guessing amoung 7-8 top WR, or Manning, there may actually be less risk in taking Manning.
Clearly, utilizing the strategy of waiting on QB and selecting several in the middle rounds is ALWAYS and option, and that still may be the way to go. But there may also be additional value in taking those middle round picks and stocking up depth at other positions.
Manning may also be available in the second or third rounds in your league, so having an idea of where he normally goes is also something to be aware of. You may elect not to take Manning early, but IMO he has an excellent chance to represent first round positional value this season.
Anyway, that's just a thought I had and one I will continue to ponder. Feel free to chime in and agree or disagree on this one.
, David.
or watched someone else in their league try it 
knows that you will never catch up in RB & WR points.
I'm sure your team was great with LJ as your 3rd RB, but that means you had to sit or trade one of your top 2 RBs. So unless someone offers you a nice deal (which doesn't always happen) you're sitting one of your top picks. You haven't optimized your lineup.
