Man vs Machine - Comparing Early Steamer and Rotowire Projections (1 Viewer)

[Notorious T.R.E.]

I've been perusing some early stat projections. Fangraphs.com has theirs up and Rotowire as well. I haven't got my hands on some of the other usual suspects yet.

The steamer projections are statistical system that was built six years ago (details here). This differs from the Rotowire projections that use a dude to just look at past performance and predict the future.

I took each of these sets of data and just using OPS I compared the largest outliers to see if there's anything we can learn.

First, where Rotowire projection exceeds Steamer:

FULL NAME - Rotowire - Steamer - Difference
Nolan Reimold - .836 - .694 - .142
Khris Davis - .901 - .768 - .133
Darin Ruf - .873 - .748 - .125
Tim Federowicz - .772 - .650 - .122
Brandon Moss - .879 - .780 - .099
Chase Headley - .841 - .744 - .097
Scott Van Slyke - .831 - .740 - .091
Derek Norris - .812 - .725 - .087
Jordan Schafer - .710 - .623 - .087
Jason Castro - .830 - .744 - .086
Jason Kipnis - .842 - .759 - .083
Gregory Polanco - .785 - .703 - .082
Dioner Navarro - .796 - .719 - .077
Mike Trout - 1.014 - .939 - .075
Robbie Grossman - .761 - .687 - .074
Wil Nieves - .695 - .627 - .068
Abraham Almonte - .756 - .691 - .065
Chris Young - .766 - .702 - .064
Hanley Ramirez - .876 - .812 - .064
Matt Adams - .860 - .798 - .062

And now, where Steamer exceeds Rotowire:

[SIZE=medium]FULL NAME - Rotowire - Steamer - Difference
Ryan Raburn - .667 - .741 - -.074
Drew Stubbs - .655 - .724 - -.069
Mark Teixeira - .745 - .806 - -.061
Cliff Pennington - .612 - .672 - -.060
Justin Morneau - .747 - .802 - -.055
Avisail Garcia - .681 - .734 - -.053
Kyle Blanks - .672 - .722 - -.050
Jeff Keppinger - .638 - .688 - -.050
Adrian Gonzalez - .795 - .844 - -.049
Mark Reynolds - .730 - .778 - -.048
Anthony Rizzo - .805 - .851 - -.046
Josh Rutledge - .731 - .777 - -.046
Adam Eaton - .708 - .753 - -.045
Luis Valbuena - .665 - .710 - -.045
Eric Sogard - .649 - .694 - -.045
Shane Victorino - .719 - .763 - -.044
DJ LeMahieu - .675 - .719 - -.044
Michael Young - .687 - .730 - -.043
Maicer Izturis - .630 - .672 - -.042
Yasiel Puig - .821 - .861 - -.040
Pablo Sandoval - .790 - .830 - -.040
Logan Morrison - .732 - .770 - -.038
[/SIZE]

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Format fail. Tried to fix.

 

[Eephus]

Even the Reimold projections are within the margin of error for these systems.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

A few names from the Rotowire + side:

Khris Davis

Rotowire has Khris Davis hitting 20 homers in 324 ABs with a 284/361/540. Seems he'd get more games if he's doing that. The numbers Rotowire has projected are in line with his 56 game stint in 2013. With Aoki gone, Braun is moving to RF and Davis will be given a shot at holding down LF. Steamer has 17 homers, and 255/329/439 over 419 ABs. So while Rotowire has the better prediction, they also have him on the field less.

Darin Ruf

Ruf is another guy that did fairly well over a short stint in 2013, hitting 14 homers in 251 ABs with a 247/348/458 slash. Rotowire has him getting just 269 ABs in 2014 with a 275/356/517 triple slash and 16 homers. Again, great slash numbers without the bump in playing time. Steamer gives Ruf 372 ABs with a 250/324/424 and 14 homers.

Brandon Moss

The 29 year old had a breakout year in 2013 with 30 homers and a 256/337/522 slash. He hit 21 homers in 265 AB the year prior, so there was indication that the homers would be there with playing time. Rotowire sees a slight step down in playing time, but again a step up in production with 31 homers and 268/343/536 in 463 ABs. Steamer has a big regression with 20 homers and 244/320/460 slash over 386 AB.

 

[Eephus]

is this what Project-or-Die has come to?

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

is this what Project-or-Die has come to?

Sorry. I'll go away

 

[Brady Marino]

is this what Project-or-Die has come to?

You're getting cranky. Go take your afternoon nap.

 

[Eephus]

is this what Project-or-Die has come to?

You're getting cranky. Go take your afternoon nap.

I'm still spry enough to play OF for the Phillies

 

[Wrigley]

is this what Project-or-Die has come to?

You're getting cranky. Go take your afternoon nap.

I'm still spry enough to play OF for the Phillies

Or the Yankees

 

[RnR]

is this what Project-or-Die has come to?

Sorry. I'll go away

Tre, wait...

 

[oso diablo]

Even the Reimold projections are within the margin of error for these systems.

well, that's disappointing

 

[jfranco77]

Rotowire seems to have less regression built into their projections for guys like Davis, Castro, SVS, etc. Which means, I guess, that they buy into last year's production a little more. Not all, but a lot of the Steamer guys are guys who did better in 2012 and the system expects a rebound.

 

[Eephus]

I think a human based projection is better able to incorporate playing time variation into the equation. This is a key factor once you get past the top couple of tiers of players.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

I think a human based projection is better able to incorporate playing time variation into the equation. This is a key factor once you get past the top couple of tiers of players.

This thread is uninteresting. Stop posting in it.

 

[Eephus]

I think a human based projection is better able to incorporate playing time variation into the equation. This is a key factor once you get past the top couple of tiers of players.

This thread is uninteresting. Stop posting in it.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Eephus is such a bitch.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Eephus is such a bitch.