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Managing with foresight or hindsight? (1 Viewer)

gonzobill5

Footballguy
I was reflecting on my adds/drops so far this season and I noticed a pretty big flaw in my strategy. Most notably, I dropped slaton prior to week 1 for maurice morris when basing the decision on their opening schedules. I was hoping to get a general idea from the board about the way they approach the WW. Here's the scenario:

Player A goes off for 20 or so points against a bad defense. In the upcoming weeks, player A faces stiffer competition or the threat of less playing time.

Player B scores an average # of points against a good defense, and plays weaker competition or shows a sign of increased playing time

Obviously you'd like to know more, but without any additional info, who would you go for? Or should I say, is there one type of player that you tend toward?

I go for player B every time. I almost never chase points and always try to predict what's going to happen next, whos going to be the next short term surprise. I feel I've done a decent job of it - but like I said, it always seems to be a short term player. Meanwhile, I've ignored player A types that turned into full fledged studs all year.

There is an owner of my league who goes for player A every time. In recent years he's landed michael clayton (when he was good), marques colston (when he was a te), and earnest graham. He got each of them the week after their first BIG game. He, of course, landed slaton right after the Tenn game. He's certainly had some luck with waiver priority - but putting that aside, does anyone think that this might be a superior general strategy?

 
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I tend to agree with your strategy generally speaking. I think too many people chase their own tail trying to pick up the flavor of the week. That said, so much of these differing approaches is dependent on league, roster, and bench sizes. Obviously, the larger your bench is, the easier it is to take a flyer on a one week wonder with the hopes that he pans out. Tight rosters/benches mean you have to lean toward steadier pickups because you'll be more likely to be dropping someone of decent quality.

 
I think it depends on the needs of your team. I try to keep the last two spots on my roster for upside players. Yes, these turn over A LOT. And, yes, I have cut some players too early. But, this strategy has allowed me to land some very good players before anyone else. Also, I go by what I see not the fantasy points. If I have to wait for a player to breakout, I waited too long.

 
I usually go for the guy that will get the majority of touches/looks or who I suspect will end up getting the majority of touches. However, if one guy is clearly more explosive than my other option, I will take a chance on the more explosive player even if I suspect he may receive less touches.

 
i agree, in adding to what JT just said, i pick up the players that pass the "eyeball test" - not necessarily the stat padder o' the week

example this year for me was Miles Austin, he just looked good to me the way he was playing. now trading for Roy seems to put a halt on his value right now but it doesn't change what i saw and TO isn't 27 years old so who knows it may still pan out

 
radballs said:
I tend to agree with your strategy generally speaking. I think too many people chase their own tail trying to pick up the flavor of the week. That said, so much of these differing approaches is dependent on league, roster, and bench sizes. Obviously, the larger your bench is, the easier it is to take a flyer on a one week wonder with the hopes that he pans out. Tight rosters/benches mean you have to lean toward steadier pickups because you'll be more likely to be dropping someone of decent quality.
:clap:
 

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