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Marion Barber (1 Viewer)

switz

Footballguy
It seems to me that a lot of people keep asking what happened to Marion Barber last year. Some are excusing his season due to a foot injury, others due to Romo's injury... here's a review...

Note: I'm focusing on his running, not receiving. He did very well in the receiving department.


Code:
WK   Opp   G  GS  Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Comments
1   @ CLE 1   1	16	80	5.0	2	(left early with bruised ribs, Jones averaged 6.9 YPC in this game)
2   PHI   1   1	18	63	3.5	1	(PHI allowed 3.5 YPC on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 3.3 YPC in this game but only had 3 carries)
3   @ GB  1   1	28	142	5.1	1	(GB had horrible rush defense, allowed 4.6 YPC on avg, Jones averaged 12.7 YPC in this game)
4   WAS   1   1	8	26	3.3	0	(WAS allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)
5   CIN   1   1	23	84	3.7	0	(CIN allowed 3.9 on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 10.7 YPC in this game)
6   @ ARI 1   1	17	45	2.6	0	(ARI allowed 4.0 on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 7.3 YPC in this game)
7   @ STL 1   1	18	100	5.6	1	(Romo out)
8   TB    1   1	25	71	2.8	0	(Romo out)
9   @ NYG 1   1	19	54	2.8	0	(Romo out)
11  @ WAS 1   1	24	114	4.8	1	(WAS allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)
12  SF    1   1	19	59	3.1	0	(SF allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)
13  SEA   1   1	10	32	3.2	1	(left game with foot injury, Choice averaged 5.2 YPC)
14  @ PIT 0   0	--	--	--	--	(missed gamed with foot injury)
15  NYG   1   1	8	2	0.3	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 10.1 YPC)
16  BAL   1   0	2	0	0.0	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 5.3 YPC)
17  @ PHI 1   0	3	13	4.3	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 4.3 YPC)
So let's see...

In games where he was a) healthy, and b) Romo was playing, he underperformed the average RB 4 out of 7 times. His YPC in those 7 games was 3.7, the teams he played against allow on average 3.9 YPC. It's hard to argue that the reason he underperformed on the season was due to inuries, either his own or Romo's.

In fact, his best game rushing came when Romo was out. The two other teams Barber played while Romo was out were allowing 4.0 and 4.3 respectively, so one might argue in those games they were able to tee off against the run, but that only eliminates 2 out of 11 games prior to the foot injury.

It's also interesting to note that in most games, the "other" RB, whether it was Choice or Jones, outperformed Barber. I tend to discount Choice's success a little bit because he was fresh late in the season. But still, looking at how he did against common opponents (i.e. NYG and PHI) to Barber earlier in the season doesn't speak well for Barber.

Obviously, you have to disregard weeks 14-17 when projecting Barber for this season, as he was very injured. Prior to that he rushed for 870 yards, on 225 carries, at a clip of 3.9 YPC. In those first 11 games he saw more carries than he had in any season in his career. It's clear IMO that the higher workload was the primary reason for his decreased effectiveness in those games, not anything else.

Anyone have a different take?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
good analysis. Now do the same for Addai.
And Steven Jackson. :football:
Will do when I have the time.... maybe one tomorrow, one the next day
I've been around long enough to understand the love you have for Addai and Jones, but this seems like a relatively objective analysis. One of the better posts I've seen you make.
switz is a good poster, we all have our man love candidates, I really do want to see the breakdown for Addai. Im pretty sure the people behind S.jackson didnt do squat though
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe most of Green Bay's defense was still intact when Dallas played them, that wasn't the case later in the season so comparing Barber's performance vs. that unit compared to someone who had success in the 2nd half of the season vs. them is not apples-to-apples.

I also noticed you continually citing Felix Jones' ypc early in the season too, this is a common mistake made by many, citing a higher than avg ypc from a part B in a committee (Leon Washington, Jerome Harrison, Kevin Faulk, Jerious Norwood, etc.) as a reason to expect more touches for said player. Some players perform better in that role, I don't think citing his numbers says anything about expecting more, the same, or less touches for 2009. There may be other reasons to expect Jones' touches to increase in 2009, but his ypc in 2008 is not one of them.

 
A couple things...as you said in game 1 Barber left with bruised ribs, how do you know how healthy he was for the next few games? I've had bruised ribs and I don't play professional football but I do know that they hurt quite a bit and I didn't have guys hitting me 18+ times a game. Another thing is the use of ypc...to me it's apples and oranges if you compare a guy that's getting 3, 3, 6, 9 carries vs. a guy that's getting 18, 23, 16, etc.. One guy is doing the dirty work and getting that one yard on the 3rd and 1 and while it looks like 1 ypc on the stat sheet, it's very important to keep the chains moving.

Felix has big play ability no doubt but unless you're getting 10+ carries/game ypc is pretty meaningless IMO. Football is a team game too and who's to say that they aren't running Barber see what the defense does, running Barber see what the defense does, put Jones out there hoping the defense lines up in the same way and look to burn them with that one wrinkle they spot in the defense. My point is there is a big difference toting the rock 20 times a game because you are going to be in all different types of down and distances but if you are a specialty player with that homerun ability you can exploit the defense very effectively but that doesn't necessarily translate to being a full time player....Tatum Bell....

 
A couple things...as you said in game 1 Barber left with bruised ribs, how do you know how healthy he was for the next few games? I've had bruised ribs and I don't play professional football but I do know that they hurt quite a bit and I didn't have guys hitting me 18+ times a game.
Well, he played pretty well the next couple games, and from what I understood the rib injury wasn't that serious. Results indicate that's true.
Another thing is the use of ypc...to me it's apples and oranges if you compare a guy that's getting 3, 3, 6, 9 carries vs. a guy that's getting 18, 23, 16, etc.. One guy is doing the dirty work and getting that one yard on the 3rd and 1 and while it looks like 1 ypc on the stat sheet, it's very important to keep the chains moving.
Sure, that's true... if the player is coming in in spot situations. In the first game of the season though, Felix played every running down after Barber left, it wasn't just situational duty.
Felix has big play ability no doubt but unless you're getting 10+ carries/game ypc is pretty meaningless IMO. Football is a team game too and who's to say that they aren't running Barber see what the defense does, running Barber see what the defense does, put Jones out there hoping the defense lines up in the same way and look to burn them with that one wrinkle they spot in the defense. My point is there is a big difference toting the rock 20 times a game because you are going to be in all different types of down and distances but if you are a specialty player with that homerun ability you can exploit the defense very effectively but that doesn't necessarily translate to being a full time player....Tatum Bell....
Hey, you're a big Barber fan. I get that. But sometimes you need to take off the rose colored glasses. In fact, if anything, your argument support Barber needing lesser of a role. He was great in mop up duty and limited carries... once he became a full time RB, he stunk it up. :goodposting:And this thread isn't about Jones, or Choice... it's about Barber. I only included them as a comparison - maybe an imperfect comparison, so then use the average RB against common opponents which I included as well.
 
A couple things...as you said in game 1 Barber left with bruised ribs, how do you know how healthy he was for the next few games? I've had bruised ribs and I don't play professional football but I do know that they hurt quite a bit and I didn't have guys hitting me 18+ times a game.
Well, he played pretty well the next couple games, and from what I understood the rib injury wasn't that serious. Results indicate that's true.
Another thing is the use of ypc...to me it's apples and oranges if you compare a guy that's getting 3, 3, 6, 9 carries vs. a guy that's getting 18, 23, 16, etc.. One guy is doing the dirty work and getting that one yard on the 3rd and 1 and while it looks like 1 ypc on the stat sheet, it's very important to keep the chains moving.
Sure, that's true... if the player is coming in in spot situations. In the first game of the season though, Felix played every running down after Barber left, it wasn't just situational duty.
Felix has big play ability no doubt but unless you're getting 10+ carries/game ypc is pretty meaningless IMO. Football is a team game too and who's to say that they aren't running Barber see what the defense does, running Barber see what the defense does, put Jones out there hoping the defense lines up in the same way and look to burn them with that one wrinkle they spot in the defense. My point is there is a big difference toting the rock 20 times a game because you are going to be in all different types of down and distances but if you are a specialty player with that homerun ability you can exploit the defense very effectively but that doesn't necessarily translate to being a full time player....Tatum Bell....
Hey, you're a big Barber fan. I get that. But sometimes you need to take off the rose colored glasses. In fact, if anything, your argument support Barber needing lesser of a role. He was great in mop up duty and limited carries... once he became a full time RB, he stunk it up. :shrug: And this thread isn't about Jones, or Choice... it's about Barber. I only included them as a comparison - maybe an imperfect comparison, so then use the average RB against common opponents which I included as well.
Mop up duty against an outmatched Cleveland defense that (if memory serves, I was quite drunk by the 2nd half, couldn't watch much anymore) couldn't get off the field because 1) they sucked and 2) the offense couldn't move/hang onto the ball.
 
Hey, you're a big Barber fan. I get that. But sometimes you need to take off the rose colored glasses. In fact, if anything, your argument support Barber needing lesser of a role. He was great in mop up duty and limited carries... once he became a full time RB, he stunk it up. :lmao:And this thread isn't about Jones, or Choice... it's about Barber. I only included them as a comparison - maybe an imperfect comparison, so then use the average RB against common opponents which I included as well.
Its funny because I'm not a big Barber fan at all, not a Cowboy fan and don't own Barber in any dynasty leagues. I actually argued against his ranking in a few threads last year because I thought it was too high and you couldn't assume the same productivity as a full time starter that he had as a situational back. I was most concerned about his bruising style and if he could handle that kind of pounding with twice as many carries. I thnk we got the answer. I actually do think they should reduce his role and I think they'll return to the JJ/Barber formula of a few years back because I think he's more effective and will be more durable with fewer carries and they have effective backups. I think he'll still get the majority of the carries probably around 60%. Basically, I took exception with the fact that you pointed out the other dallas backs ypc and that since theirs was better than Barbers that they were more effective or would have done better in a larger role. Small sample sizes and extrapoling/assuming based off of them are just a pet peeve of mine.
 
I think he should be good for 200-225 carries again, just spread out over 16 games played (hopefully). He was RB16 last year missing a game and not seeing much action weeks 15-17. I think having Felix and Choice in there will benefit MB3 and I see his yards staying around the same, his rec dropping slightly and his TD's improving since he should be on the field every week. His current ADP according to FFcalc is RB14. Considering he had 23 carries the last 5 weeks of the season and still finished RB16, I think he shows some value being drafted as RB14

 
I am just wondering but why is only the "running" aspect being analyzed btw? You stated that he did very well in the "receiving" dept., so looking at the entire body of work for MB3, he was a pretty good back. I know I've stated this before, but fantasy wise, he was a top 3 rb for a while (ppr, obviously). I know that you don't play in a ppr leagues Switz so I assume that is why you are focusing on just the running aspect?

 
chidoy said:
I am just wondering but why is only the "running" aspect being analyzed btw? You stated that he did very well in the "receiving" dept., so looking at the entire body of work for MB3, he was a pretty good back. I know I've stated this before, but fantasy wise, he was a top 3 rb for a while (ppr, obviously). I know that you don't play in a ppr leagues Switz so I assume that is why you are focusing on just the running aspect?
Yeah, that is one reason. The other reason is that a RBs primary role is running the ball... if he can't do that successfully, he'll be on the field less.

I've used the same exact argument in reference to Matt Forte this year. Last season Forte's totals look good because he was a great receiving back. But as a runner he wasn't that good.

Others have used that argument in reference to Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai, etc.

Note: In mentioning Addai, I plan on doing this type of review for him as well.

 
I've used the same exact argument in reference to Matt Forte this year. Last season Forte's totals look good because he was a great receiving back. But as a runner he wasn't that good.
You could argue that Forte was a compiler, with only 3 100-yd games on a 1200 yard rushing season.He was remarkably consistent though. Forte only had 2 games under 10 points (8.5 vs PHI, 7.5@HOU wk17)

Pretty safe 1st round RB imo. If you can grab him at the tail end of Round 1 and pair him with a good RB1/2 type like Barber.

 
It seems to me that a lot of people keep asking what happened to Marion Barber last year. Some are excusing his season due to a foot injury, others due to Romo's injury... here's a review...Note: I'm focusing on his running, not receiving. He did very well in the receiving department.

Code:
WK   Opp   G  GS  Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Comments1   @ CLE 1   1	16	80	5.0	2	(left early with bruised ribs, Jones averaged 6.9 YPC in this game)2   PHI   1   1	18	63	3.5	1	(PHI allowed 3.5 YPC on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 3.3 YPC in this game but only had 3 carries)3   @ GB  1   1	28	142	5.1	1	(GB had horrible rush defense, allowed 4.6 YPC on avg, Jones averaged 12.7 YPC in this game)4   WAS   1   1	8	26	3.3	0	(WAS allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)5   CIN   1   1	23	84	3.7	0	(CIN allowed 3.9 on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 10.7 YPC in this game)6   @ ARI 1   1	17	45	2.6	0	(ARI allowed 4.0 on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 7.3 YPC in this game)7   @ STL 1   1	18	100	5.6	1	(Romo out)8   TB    1   1	25	71	2.8	0	(Romo out)9   @ NYG 1   1	19	54	2.8	0	(Romo out)11  @ WAS 1   1	24	114	4.8	1	(WAS allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)12  SF    1   1	19	59	3.1	0	(SF allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)13  SEA   1   1	10	32	3.2	1	(left game with foot injury, Choice averaged 5.2 YPC)14  @ PIT 0   0	--	--	--	--	(missed gamed with foot injury)15  NYG   1   1	8	2	0.3	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 10.1 YPC)16  BAL   1   0	2	0	0.0	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 5.3 YPC)17  @ PHI 1   0	3	13	4.3	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 4.3 YPC)
So let's see... In games where he was a) healthy, and b) Romo was playing, he underperformed the average RB 4 out of 7 times. His YPC in those 7 games was 3.7, the teams he played against allow on average 3.9 YPC. It's hard to argue that the reason he underperformed on the season was due to inuries, either his own or Romo's.In fact, his best game rushing came when Romo was out. The two other teams Barber played while Romo was out were allowing 4.0 and 4.3 respectively, so one might argue in those games they were able to tee off against the run, but that only eliminates 2 out of 11 games prior to the foot injury.It's also interesting to note that in most games, the "other" RB, whether it was Choice or Jones, outperformed Barber. I tend to discount Choice's success a little bit because he was fresh late in the season. But still, looking at how he did against common opponents (i.e. NYG and PHI) to Barber earlier in the season doesn't speak well for Barber.Obviously, you have to disregard weeks 14-17 when projecting Barber for this season, as he was very injured. Prior to that he rushed for 870 yards, on 225 carries, at a clip of 3.9 YPC. In those first 11 games he saw more carries than he had in any season in his career. It's clear IMO that the higher workload was the primary reason for his decreased effectiveness in those games, not anything else. Anyone have a different take?
I think you're right about Barber, more work meant less of a performance...he's another one of those Rb's who loves to dish the hits to the opponents, and his hard running style leaves him open to frequent injuries ( see Steven Jackson)I'm on-board with the love for Felix Jones..:lmao:However, switching back the the RB2 role will likely increase Barber's stats, and he's going to steal goal-line work from Jones.. but the two can most definitely co-exist!
 
Do people think more carries meant less performance or more carries meant more injuries meant less performance? I think its the latter.

From a fantasy perspective I think you're playing with fire. Barber, Jones and Choice all have talent... figuring out which one will be healthy and effective for the season (or at any point in the season) is too risky. I'll let someone else deal with it.

 
It seems to me that a lot of people keep asking what happened to Marion Barber last year. Some are excusing his season due to a foot injury, others due to Romo's injury... here's a review...Note: I'm focusing on his running, not receiving. He did very well in the receiving department.

Code:
WK   Opp   G  GS  Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Comments1   @ CLE 1   1	16	80	5.0	2	(left early with bruised ribs, Jones averaged 6.9 YPC in this game)2   PHI   1   1	18	63	3.5	1	(PHI allowed 3.5 YPC on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 3.3 YPC in this game but only had 3 carries)3   @ GB  1   1	28	142	5.1	1	(GB had horrible rush defense, allowed 4.6 YPC on avg, Jones averaged 12.7 YPC in this game)4   WAS   1   1	8	26	3.3	0	(WAS allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)5   CIN   1   1	23	84	3.7	0	(CIN allowed 3.9 on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 10.7 YPC in this game)6   @ ARI 1   1	17	45	2.6	0	(ARI allowed 4.0 on avg to opposing RBs, Jones averaged 7.3 YPC in this game)7   @ STL 1   1	18	100	5.6	1	(Romo out)8   TB    1   1	25	71	2.8	0	(Romo out)9   @ NYG 1   1	19	54	2.8	0	(Romo out)11  @ WAS 1   1	24	114	4.8	1	(WAS allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)12  SF    1   1	19	59	3.1	0	(SF allowed 3.8 on avg to opposing RBs)13  SEA   1   1	10	32	3.2	1	(left game with foot injury, Choice averaged 5.2 YPC)14  @ PIT 0   0	--	--	--	--	(missed gamed with foot injury)15  NYG   1   1	8	2	0.3	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 10.1 YPC)16  BAL   1   0	2	0	0.0	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 5.3 YPC)17  @ PHI 1   0	3	13	4.3	0	(playing with foot injury, Choice averaged 4.3 YPC)
So let's see... In games where he was a) healthy, and b) Romo was playing, he underperformed the average RB 4 out of 7 times. His YPC in those 7 games was 3.7, the teams he played against allow on average 3.9 YPC. It's hard to argue that the reason he underperformed on the season was due to inuries, either his own or Romo's.In fact, his best game rushing came when Romo was out. The two other teams Barber played while Romo was out were allowing 4.0 and 4.3 respectively, so one might argue in those games they were able to tee off against the run, but that only eliminates 2 out of 11 games prior to the foot injury.It's also interesting to note that in most games, the "other" RB, whether it was Choice or Jones, outperformed Barber. I tend to discount Choice's success a little bit because he was fresh late in the season. But still, looking at how he did against common opponents (i.e. NYG and PHI) to Barber earlier in the season doesn't speak well for Barber.Obviously, you have to disregard weeks 14-17 when projecting Barber for this season, as he was very injured. Prior to that he rushed for 870 yards, on 225 carries, at a clip of 3.9 YPC. In those first 11 games he saw more carries than he had in any season in his career. It's clear IMO that the higher workload was the primary reason for his decreased effectiveness in those games, not anything else. Anyone have a different take?
I think you're right about Barber, more work meant less of a performance...he's another one of those Rb's who loves to dish the hits to the opponents, and his hard running style leaves him open to frequent injuries ( see Steven Jackson)I'm on-board with the love for Felix Jones..:lmao:However, switching back the the RB2 role will likely increase Barber's stats, and he's going to steal goal-line work from Jones.. but the two can most definitely co-exist!
:coffee: I think this is how it will pan out as well..
 

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