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Marshawn Lynch vs. Chris Johnson through age 27 (1 Viewer)

cstu

cstu

Footballguy
Lynch is 7 months younger than CJ but I thought this was interesting considering the wide cap in dynasty value (~#10 for Lynch and ~#25 for Johnson). It could be perceived that Lynch is over-valued or CJ under-valued.

CJ turned 28 on Sept. 23 last year and Lynch turns 28 on April 22.

Code: 
   NAME 	POS 	YRs 	        G 	RSH 	RSHYD 	YD/RSH 	RSHTD 	REC 	RECYD 	YD/REC 	RECTD 	FANT PTMarshawn Lynch	rb	2007--2013	104	1753	7389	4.22	58	202	1532	7.58	5	1274.5Chris Johnson	rb	2008--2013	95	1742	7965	4.57	50	272	1997	7.34	8	1344.2
 
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cstu said:
Lynch is 7 months younger than CJ but I thought this was interesting considering the wide cap in dynasty value (~#10 for Lynch and ~#25 for Johnson). It could be perceived that Lynch is over-valued or CJ under-valued.

NAME POS YRs G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PTMarshawn Lynch rb 2007--2013 104 1753 7389 4.22 58 202 1532 7.58 5 1274.5Chris Johnson rb 2008--2013 95 1742 7965 4.57 50 272 1997 7.34 8 1344.2
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Your joking right?

 
It's quite possible that Lynch is over-rated as the #10 RB at age 28 when this could be his last year in Seattle.

 
I've posted this several times already on the boards, but it's a list of the long run % for all of the NFL backs with 200+ carries last season:

CJ Spiller - 4.48%

DeMarco Murray - 3.69%

Alfred Morris - 3.62%

Frank Gore - 3.26%

Matt Forte - 3.11%

DeAngelo Williams - 2.99%

LeSean McCoy - 2.87%

Adrian Peterson - 2.87%

Reggie Bush - 2.69%

Ryan Mathews - 2.46%

Jamaal Charles - 2.32%

Chris Johnson - 2.15%

Maurice Jones-Drew - 2.14%

Knowshon Moreno - 2.07%

Zac Stacy - 2.00%

Marshawn Lynch - 1.99%

LeVeon Bell - 1.64%

Eddie Lacy - 1.05%

Fred Jackson - 0.48%

Ray Rice - 0.47%

Rashard Mendenhall - 0.46%

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 0.45%
Click to expand...
I found it interesting that Lynch was so low on the list. Most of the guys below him were either absolute garbage or totally mediocre in 2013.

Having said that, he's within shouting distance of guys like Charles, Mathews, and Peterson. Actually closer to those guys than the dregs like Rice, Mendenhall, and BJGE. So I don't know that it's really all that significant.

Given that he's 28 with a lot of mileage, I think we'll probably reach the end of his prime within 1-2 years if we haven't already.

Is he overvalued? Depends on what you see him as. If you look at him as a 1-2 year short window play, I don't think he's hugely overvalued.

If you think he's going to be a rock in your team for years to come, you're probably in for disappointment.

 
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cstu said:
Lynch is 7 months younger than CJ but I thought this was interesting considering the wide cap in dynasty value (~#10 for Lynch and ~#25 for Johnson). It could be perceived that Lynch is over-valued or CJ under-valued.

CJ turned 28 on Sept. 23 last year and Lynch turns 28 on April 22.

NAME POS YRs G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PTMarshawn Lynch rb 2007--2013 104 1753 7389 4.22 58 202 1532 7.58 5 1274.5Chris Johnson rb 2008--2013 95 1742 7965 4.57 50 272 1997 7.34 8 1344.2
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What team does Chris Johnson play for?

 
jurb26 said:
Look at their lst 3 years.
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Even the past 3 years Lynch hasn't been that much better despite being on a great rushing team - 4.2/5.0/4.2 vs 4.0/4.5/3.9.

Now he has Christine Michael breathing down his neck.

 
cstu said:
jurb26 said:
Look at their lst 3 years.
Click to expand...
Even the past 3 years Lynch hasn't been that much better despite being on a great rushing team - 4.2/5.0/4.2 vs 4.0/4.5/3.9.

Now he has Christine Michael breathing down his neck.
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By breathing down his neck you mean "healthy inactive for majority of season?"

CJ doesn't even have a team yet, go ahead and pay rb15 or higher prices and see him end up in a timeshare where he doesn't get goal line work.

 
Yeah... this is all about situation. Lynch is under contract and expected to remain in more or less the same role he's had in the last two years while Johnson's team and role are complete unknowns.

 
It is interesting to see how similar the two stat lines are for their careers but as far as the dynasty value gap goes, it's probably fairly accurate. I don't think there is any team that CJ can land that will give him the redzone/goal line carries that Lynch gets. The rushing TD numbers over the last 3 years are the biggest difference between the two backs.

 
What they did 5 years ago in completely different situations has little bearing on their value for next year. They've obviously trended in completely opposite directions in the back half of their career.

To illustrate this, why don't we make the same with Knowshon Moreno and some of his peers? Moreno is 7 months older than DeMarco Murray, is 1 month older than CJ Spiller, and has actually outscored both in his career. Yet FBG has Moreno behind CJ and Murray/Spiller ahead of Lynch, so it's an even bigger disparity than the one this thread is based on.

How did you format that table on the forum, btw? I'd love to put one up for Moreno/Spiller/Murray.

 
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To illustrate this, why don't we make the same with Knowshon Moreno and some of his peers? Moreno is 7 months older than DeMarco Murray, is 1 month older than CJ Spiller, and has actually outscored both in his career. Yet FBG has Moreno behind CJ and Murray/Spiller ahead of Lynch, so it's an even bigger disparity than the one this thread is based on.
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Moreno has a YPC that is about a yard less than Spiller and Murray.

Code: 
      NAME 	POS 	YRs 	         G 	RSH 	RSHYD 	YD/RSH 	RSHTD 	REC 	RECYD 	YD/REC 	RECTD 	FANT PTKnowshon Moreno	rb	2009--2013	61	846	3471	4.10	26	157	1401	8.92	9	697.2C.J. Spiller	rb	2010--2013	61	589	3015	5.12	12	140	1082	7.73	5	511.7DeMarco Murray	rb	2011--2013	37	541	2682	4.96	15	113	780	6.90	1	442.2
 
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NAME POS AGE G RSHYD RSHTD RECYD RECTD FP

Demarco Murray rb 26.5 41 2681 15 784 1 442

CJ Spiller rb 27.0 61 3021 12 1070 5 511

Knowshon Moreno rb 27.1 60 3468 26 1401 9 696

 
EBF said:
I've posted this several times already on the boards, but it's a list of the long run % for all of the NFL backs with 200+ carries last season:

CJ Spiller - 4.48%

DeMarco Murray - 3.69%

Alfred Morris - 3.62%

Frank Gore - 3.26%

Matt Forte - 3.11%

DeAngelo Williams - 2.99%

LeSean McCoy - 2.87%

Adrian Peterson - 2.87%

Reggie Bush - 2.69%

Ryan Mathews - 2.46%

Jamaal Charles - 2.32%

Chris Johnson - 2.15%

Maurice Jones-Drew - 2.14%

Knowshon Moreno - 2.07%

Zac Stacy - 2.00%

Marshawn Lynch - 1.99%

LeVeon Bell - 1.64%

Eddie Lacy - 1.05%

Fred Jackson - 0.48%

Ray Rice - 0.47%

Rashard Mendenhall - 0.46%

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 0.45%
Click to expand...
I found it interesting that Lynch was so low on the list. Most of the guys below him were either absolute garbage or totally mediocre in 2013.

Having said that, he's within shouting distance of guys like Charles, Mathews, and Peterson. Actually closer to those guys than the dregs like Rice, Mendenhall, and BJGE. So I don't know that it's really all that significant.

Given that he's 28 with a lot of mileage, I think we'll probably reach the end of his prime within 1-2 years if we haven't already.

Is he overvalued? Depends on what you see him as. If you look at him as a 1-2 year short window play, I don't think he's hugely overvalued.

If you think he's going to be a rock in your team for years to come, you're probably in for disappointment.
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But does that list accurately show a RBs explosiveness or big play ability. I mean Frank Gore is in the top-5 and people were writing him off 2 years ago.

 
travdogg said:
EBF said:
I've posted this several times already on the boards, but it's a list of the long run % for all of the NFL backs with 200+ carries last season:

CJ Spiller - 4.48%

DeMarco Murray - 3.69%

Alfred Morris - 3.62%

Frank Gore - 3.26%

Matt Forte - 3.11%

DeAngelo Williams - 2.99%

LeSean McCoy - 2.87%

Adrian Peterson - 2.87%

Reggie Bush - 2.69%

Ryan Mathews - 2.46%

Jamaal Charles - 2.32%

Chris Johnson - 2.15%

Maurice Jones-Drew - 2.14%

Knowshon Moreno - 2.07%

Zac Stacy - 2.00%

Marshawn Lynch - 1.99%

LeVeon Bell - 1.64%

Eddie Lacy - 1.05%

Fred Jackson - 0.48%

Ray Rice - 0.47%

Rashard Mendenhall - 0.46%

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 0.45%
Click to expand...
I found it interesting that Lynch was so low on the list. Most of the guys below him were either absolute garbage or totally mediocre in 2013.

Having said that, he's within shouting distance of guys like Charles, Mathews, and Peterson. Actually closer to those guys than the dregs like Rice, Mendenhall, and BJGE. So I don't know that it's really all that significant.

Given that he's 28 with a lot of mileage, I think we'll probably reach the end of his prime within 1-2 years if we haven't already.

Is he overvalued? Depends on what you see him as. If you look at him as a 1-2 year short window play, I don't think he's hugely overvalued.

If you think he's going to be a rock in your team for years to come, you're probably in for disappointment.
Click to expand...
But does that list accurately show a RBs explosiveness or big play ability. I mean Frank Gore is in the top-5 and people were writing him off 2 years ago.
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The list is not perfect, but I think we can agree that the names at the top are more impressive than the names at the bottom.

I find it really interesting that Gore is so high. One thing I'd point out is that the stat doesn't differentiate between a 20 yard run and a 50 yard run. I think a guy like Charles or Spiller would be a lot more likely to hit a genuine home run than Gore due to the speed difference, but I haven't looked at it.

 
cstu said:
jurb26 said:
Look at their lst 3 years.
Click to expand...
Even the past 3 years Lynch hasn't been that much better despite being on a great rushing team - 4.2/5.0/4.2 vs 4.0/4.5/3.9.

Now he has Christine Michael breathing down his neck.
Click to expand...
this agrument is apples to oranges, the only thing they have in common is that their RBs. I do feel that Lynch's #s have become a product of Seattles system, put in either one of the other back ups they have and you get roughly the same #s.

So I'm guessing the point of the thread is that CJ2k is better or equal to Lynch at this point in their career, and I guess I could see that. Ofcourse no stat out there can prove it since CJ has been on an avg team at best while Lynch has been in the perfect system for his style. Both are just about done IMO but CJ might have a little left (less punishment), if both were cut from their teams at the exact same moment I think CJ would be the 1st signed.

 
Let this be a lesson about players who rely on speed. Not to say that Johnson still isn't talented but his game breaking speed is what made him special. Dial that down and he suddenly needs to compensate for that lack of speed in other ways.

Lynch's game never revolved on speed. The guy is just a beast. If he begins to slow down, he can gain some weight or become more precise with his technique to stay relevant. I'm panicking a bit and am ready to give Chris Johnson away in my Dynasty League.

I wonder how high of a draft pick I could get?

 
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It's a sad tale with Johnson too. You've got so many bodies on so many teams at RB and you're telling me there's no market for a guy who's ran for over 2,000 yards in a single season? He must be asking for far too much money.

The fortunate thing is that he will sign somewhere eventually. It really could be anywhere, if he's going to accept a lesser contract I assume that means he'll sign with a contender. New England? San Francisco? Seattle? ;)

Wouldn't that be the kicker, Johnson jumping ship to Seattle to form a lightning and thunder with Marshawn Lynch.

 
KellysHeroes said:
cstu said:
jurb26 said:
Look at their lst 3 years.
Click to expand...
Even the past 3 years Lynch hasn't been that much better despite being on a great rushing team - 4.2/5.0/4.2 vs 4.0/4.5/3.9.

Now he has Christine Michael breathing down his neck.
Click to expand...
this agrument is apples to oranges, the only thing they have in common is that their RBs. I do feel that Lynch's #s have become a product of Seattles system, put in either one of the other back ups they have and you get roughly the same #s.

So I'm guessing the point of the thread is that CJ2k is better or equal to Lynch at this point in their career, and I guess I could see that. Ofcourse no stat out there can prove it since CJ has been on an avg team at best while Lynch has been in the perfect system for his style. Both are just about done IMO but CJ might have a little left (less punishment), if both were cut from their teams at the exact same moment I think CJ would be the 1st signed.
Click to expand...
I think you might be selling Lynch short here. I agree with you that the hawks could get decent production from their backups if needed, but the jury is still out on whether they could hold up as long or do it consistently. I just don't see Turbin anywhere close to the talent level of Lynch, and Michael is a different style altogether. Lynch has been very durable as well, and that is hard to come by for a power back.

I see no reason why Lynch can't produce at this level for another 2-4 years. Peterson is a year older with 300 more touches in 7 years and I don't hear anyone worrying that he is breaking down in the next year or two. I know he is a bit of a freak of nature, so it would be unfair of me to assume Lynch follows that path. However, Frank Gore has over 300 more touches than Lynch and looks just as good at age 30, why can't Lynch do that? Worst case scenario I think Michael steps into a spiller role and Lynch becomes Fred Jackson in the next year or two. Still puts up very good fantasy RB numbers. I guess I just haven't seen any real signs that Lynch is dropping off so I'm not writing him off yet.

Now comparing Lynch to Chris Johnson, Johnson has seen more touches in the last 6 years than Lynch has in the last 7. I know Johnson has proven to be tough, but given his smaller frame, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see his production tail off faster than Lynch. He bounces a lot to the sidelines, but he's taken his fair share of licks up the middle too. I think their values are right just where they are. Johnson might be undervalued slightly, but no reason to move Lynch out of his spot just yet.

 
So I'm guessing the point of the thread is that CJ2k is better or equal to Lynch at this point in their career, and I guess I could see that.
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A couple things:

- They've had similar careers

- Lynch has produced more recently and is in a better situation

Questions:

- Can CJ have a resurgence if he goes to a better team like Lynch did?

- Is there not enough concern that Lynch could leave Seattle next year and have his numbers take a hit?

 
cstu said:
So I'm guessing the point of the thread is that CJ2k is better or equal to Lynch at this point in their career, and I guess I could see that.
Click to expand...
A couple things:

- They've had similar careers

- Lynch has produced more recently and is in a better situation

Questions:

- Can CJ have a resurgence if he goes to a better team like Lynch did?

- Is there not enough concern that Lynch could leave Seattle next year and have his numbers take a hit?
Click to expand...
I think there is a ton of concern that Lynch leaving Sea next year will plummet his value and production. He's not exactly young and in a good situation right now. I think CJ could have a very good season, this year, if he lands in the right situation. I think the shelf life of him, and Lynch for that matter, is about one more year. IMO Johnson is probably only going to have one more productive season in him because his game is far more reliant on speed and that speed is fading. Lynch will do well in Sea again this year and my have one year after that bit that is his top IMO.

The major difference in value is coming from some rather alarming things:

Lynch is younger.

Lynch is in a known good situation.

Lynch has been better in recent years.

Johnson has far more question marks and he's being down graded accordingly.

 
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jurb26 said:
I think there is a ton of concern that Lynch leaving Sea next year will plummet his value and production. He's not exactly young and in a good situation right now.I think CJ could have a very good season, this year, if he lands in the right situation. I think the shelf life of him, and Lynch for that matter, is about one more year. IMO Johnson is probably only going to have one more productive season in him because his game is far more reliant on speed and that speed is fading. Lynch will do well in Sea again this year and my have one year after that bit that is his top IMO.

The major difference in value is coming from some rather alarming things:

Lynch is younger.

Lynch is in a known good situation.

Lynch has been better in recent years.

Johnson has far more question marks and he's being down graded accordingly.
Click to expand...
Not as much as there should be. Only a few people have him ranked outside their top 10.

CJ isn't worth much more than being ranked ~#25, I think that's a fair value. At most you're hoping for a couple more seasons of low RB1 production if he goes somewhere like Atlanta.

However, I could see Lynch being in CJ's exact situation a year from now.

 
jmo87usc said:
KellysHeroes said:
cstu said:
jurb26 said:
Look at their lst 3 years.
Click to expand...
Even the past 3 years Lynch hasn't been that much better despite being on a great rushing team - 4.2/5.0/4.2 vs 4.0/4.5/3.9.

Now he has Christine Michael breathing down his neck.
Click to expand...
this agrument is apples to oranges, the only thing they have in common is that their RBs. I do feel that Lynch's #s have become a product of Seattles system, put in either one of the other back ups they have and you get roughly the same #s.

So I'm guessing the point of the thread is that CJ2k is better or equal to Lynch at this point in their career, and I guess I could see that. Ofcourse no stat out there can prove it since CJ has been on an avg team at best while Lynch has been in the perfect system for his style. Both are just about done IMO but CJ might have a little left (less punishment), if both were cut from their teams at the exact same moment I think CJ would be the 1st signed.
Click to expand...
I think you might be selling Lynch short here. I agree with you that the hawks could get decent production from their backups if needed, but the jury is still out on whether they could hold up as long or do it consistently. I just don't see Turbin anywhere close to the talent level of Lynch, and Michael is a different style altogether. Lynch has been very durable as well, and that is hard to come by for a power back.

I see no reason why Lynch can't produce at this level for another 2-4 years. Peterson is a year older with 300 more touches in 7 years and I don't hear anyone worrying that he is breaking down in the next year or two. I know he is a bit of a freak of nature, so it would be unfair of me to assume Lynch follows that path. However, Frank Gore has over 300 more touches than Lynch and looks just as good at age 30, why can't Lynch do that? Worst case scenario I think Michael steps into a spiller role and Lynch becomes Fred Jackson in the next year or two. Still puts up very good fantasy RB numbers. I guess I just haven't seen any real signs that Lynch is dropping off so I'm not writing him off yet.

Now comparing Lynch to Chris Johnson, Johnson has seen more touches in the last 6 years than Lynch has in the last 7. I know Johnson has proven to be tough, but given his smaller frame, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see his production tail off faster than Lynch. He bounces a lot to the sidelines, but he's taken his fair share of licks up the middle too. I think their values are right just where they are. Johnson might be undervalued slightly, but no reason to move Lynch out of his spot just yet.
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No way Lynch has more than 2 yrs left... once Seattle is done w/ him after this yr I expect him to hit a very soft market. The difference between Lynch and other backs is hes a battering ram while ADP is seems to choose when to avoid contact and when to smash it giving him a little extra mileage.

 
I think for Lynch can be a monster again this season, beyond that, it's a bit murky. But has shown little sign of slowing down,

and he hasn't had the major injuries which tend to cut short some RB careers.

 
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I just traded Lynch for Johnson in every league I had him in. :) Actually I didn't have him in any league, I'm just trying to make zeds list ;)

 
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