Marvin Harrison Jr or Jonathan Taylor? (1 Viewer)

[Ben & Jerry's]

Startup value?

 

[eighsse2]

Startup value?

I feel like most people would say Harrison, and even though my league and myself do lean heavy toward RB's overall, I still feel like it's close. But I would go Taylor. Partly due to RB > WR to me, and partly Harrison feels, to me, overhyped due to name/pedigree.

 

[Gally]

I for sure go with Taylor but that's because I typically look in two year windows for evaluation purposes because too much can change for any length of time over that. I think Taylor will be better over the next two years so I lean that direction.

 

[Tonycarpenter]

I would pick Harrison because WRs typically last longer than RBs. And contracts can quickly change RB situation. Taylor good to have. I own him in dynasty. There aren't a lot of top younger RBs but results, production vary. While there might be hype with. MHjr he's still solid and is a passing league. He'll get open. He'll catch it. He'll be a #1 target. Will he have a good coach and QB? Pitts has hype that hasn't materialized but some of that might've also been a knee injury too.

 

[Crippler]

Harrison all the way due to age. Taylor at precipice now of career but league matters

League with lineup flexibility(only 1 RB needed) and PPR. Harrison crushes. Anything where you can start lots of WR
league starting 2-2 with non PPR it would probably go Taylor but close but still roll dice with Harrison. More trade value in 9 months time

my home league SF, only 1 RB needed, TE premium, PPR, I own picks 4-13-15 and doubt give pick 13 for Taylor and 15 is tight but I have no needs and love 23 draft. I have Hall, Barkley, Stevenson, Dobbins, Dillon but only ever want to start 1 RB. I probably get top drafted RB at 13

 

[Gally]

MHjr he's still solid and is a passing league. He'll should get open. He'll should catch it. He'll could be a #1 target. Will he have a good coach and QB? Pitts has hype that hasn't materialized but some of that might've also been a knee injury too.

I fixed some of your statements. MHJ hasn't proven or done anything......yet. He should/could be all those but there are no guarantees. Shiny new toy syndrome is alive and well this time of year. I will still take a 25 yr old top 5 RB that has proven he can be that at the NFL level over a guy that hasn't done anything in the NFL yet. It's close but give me the guy I have seen do it.

 

[-OZ-]

With the top pick in one dynasty and the 2nd pick in a SF, easily MHJ.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is essentially JT for 1.01 in a non superflex, right? Is JT really worth the 1.01 at 25 years old, coming off 2 mediocre seasons?

 

[Big Nate]

This is essentially JT for 1.01 in a non superflex, right? Is JT really worth the 1.01 at 25 years old, coming off 2 mediocre seasons?

"coming off 2 medicore seasons" - Not true. You can talk injuries etc, but his last 8 games he played in this past season he did very well.

I'm not advocating for one guy over another but if you had JT on your stretch run he helped you out.

Here is how it shakes out - if I'm competing I want JT. In my main dynasty league I won this year (I own JT) and I wouldn't trade him right now for MHJ. That doesn't mean I don't value MHJ but JT is going to help me win and compete next year. Maybe MHJ does too but we don't know landing spot, usage, will he take time to get up to speed etc? Roster to compete JT over MHJ.

The OP asked about start-up. In this case I likely lean MHJ depending on how the draft has gone up to that point. But there is risk with any rookie coming in and taking time to get up to speed or even being a "bust" with their ADP in year 1.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is essentially JT for 1.01 in a non superflex, right? Is JT really worth the 1.01 at 25 years old, coming off 2 mediocre seasons?

"coming off 2 medicore seasons" - Not true. You can talk injuries etc, but his last 8 games he played in this past season he did very well.

I'm not advocating for one guy over another but if you had JT on your stretch run he helped you out.

I had him in multiple leagues and don't remember him being anything special down the stretch so I went back and looked. From week 8 to week 16 he went...

10.7
17.9
14.5
21.1
DNP
DNP
DNP
10.3

It's fine, but not some great boon down the stretch or anything. Even extending back to week 6 to cherry pick his exact best stretch of games, and moving to PPG to discount the games he missed, he was RB12 in PPG over that stretch.

So we have a 25 year old running back, coming off a season where we can maybe cherry pick a best case scenario to get him as high as RB12, and another muddy season the year prior to that, against the 1.01, one of the highest rated WR prospects in years?

Looks like I'm a seller of JT this offseason, after being a buyer of him during his holdout. I like JT fine enough, but he's getting into that Joe Mixon area from a couple years ago where even if he finally starts producing again, by that point he's getting old enough that his value still declines unless it's CMC type of production. And if he goes a 3rd season in a row without being a top 3-5 overall RB, the bottom will fall out fast.

 

[Gally]

So we have a 25 year old running back, coming off a season where we can maybe cherry pick a best case scenario to get him as high as RB12, and another muddy season the year prior to that, against the 1.01, one of the highest rated WR prospects in years?

Looks like I'm a seller of JT this offseason, after being a buyer of him during his holdout. I like JT fine enough, but he's getting into that Joe Mixon area from a couple years ago where even if he finally starts producing again, by that point he's getting old enough that his value still declines unless it's CMC type of production. And if he goes a 3rd season in a row without being a top 3-5 overall RB, the bottom will fall out fast.

But what do you expect looking forward for the next couple years? The arrow seems to be pointing up on the Indy offense in general. Running QB's tend to help the running game and many believe AR to be good based on what they saw this year. The O-Line is still good and getting in a full off season without all the distractions and something to prove I would be looking to acquire JT hopefully at a slight discount (based on your concerns above).

I am a bit different than most dynasty players in that I only look at 2 year windows and for me I would take JT over MHJ for the next two years....

 

[Big Nate]

This is essentially JT for 1.01 in a non superflex, right? Is JT really worth the 1.01 at 25 years old, coming off 2 mediocre seasons?

"coming off 2 medicore seasons" - Not true. You can talk injuries etc, but his last 8 games he played in this past season he did very well.

I'm not advocating for one guy over another but if you had JT on your stretch run he helped you out.

I had him in multiple leagues and don't remember him being anything special down the stretch so I went back and looked. From week 8 to week 16 he went...

10.7
17.9
14.5
21.1
DNP
DNP
DNP
10.3

It's fine, but not some great boon down the stretch or anything. Even extending back to week 6 to cherry pick his exact best stretch of games, and moving to PPG to discount the games he missed, he was RB12 in PPG over that stretch.

So we have a 25 year old running back, coming off a season where we can maybe cherry pick a best case scenario to get him as high as RB12, and another muddy season the year prior to that, against the 1.01, one of the highest rated WR prospects in years?

Looks like I'm a seller of JT this offseason, after being a buyer of him during his holdout. I like JT fine enough, but he's getting into that Joe Mixon area from a couple years ago where even if he finally starts producing again, by that point he's getting old enough that his value still declines unless it's CMC type of production. And if he goes a 3rd season in a row without being a top 3-5 overall RB, the bottom will fall out fast.

I understand what you are saying but 25 isn't old. Also selling him in the offseason won't get you what you could get during the season after he puts up a big game. Also why did you leave off the 16pts JT got me in the championship game? He finished off week 18 with 26 pts as well. He may have been injured earlier in the year and that is fair to point out. I understand you don't like him but I feel you are missing a big part of the picture.

He's a top 5 RB that has at least 2 years left in him which is a long time in dynasty if you are a contender. If you sell him this offseason you are likely selling low and missing value. RBs gain value during the season once they start scoring points again. Moreover JT is better than Mixon. Funny thing is I own him too and he's done well from 25 to 27yrs.

If you can buy JT this offseason at a discount (contending team) I 100% recommend it.

 

[Big Nate]

So we have a 25 year old running back, coming off a season where we can maybe cherry pick a best case scenario to get him as high as RB12, and another muddy season the year prior to that, against the 1.01, one of the highest rated WR prospects in years?

Looks like I'm a seller of JT this offseason, after being a buyer of him during his holdout. I like JT fine enough, but he's getting into that Joe Mixon area from a couple years ago where even if he finally starts producing again, by that point he's getting old enough that his value still declines unless it's CMC type of production. And if he goes a 3rd season in a row without being a top 3-5 overall RB, the bottom will fall out fast.

But what do you expect looking forward for the next couple years? The arrow seems to be pointing up on the Indy offense in general. Running QB's tend to help the running game and many believe AR to be good based on what they saw this year. The O-Line is still good and getting in a full off season without all the distractions and something to prove I would be looking to acquire JT hopefully at a slight discount (based on your concerns above).

I am a bit different than most dynasty players in that I only look at 2 year windows and for me I would take JT over MHJ for the next two years....

I agree, the offense will be even better in it's second year and ARich will be back and healthy. I also agree with the 2 year window as mentioned in my post. if you are contending JT is a great piece to have. To the people who say trade JT, as soon as you trade him you will be looking to find another RB to replace him. Who are you getting? Hopefully you can get a package deal worth it for a top 10 RB.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is essentially JT for 1.01 in a non superflex, right? Is JT really worth the 1.01 at 25 years old, coming off 2 mediocre seasons?

"coming off 2 medicore seasons" - Not true. You can talk injuries etc, but his last 8 games he played in this past season he did very well.

I'm not advocating for one guy over another but if you had JT on your stretch run he helped you out.

I had him in multiple leagues and don't remember him being anything special down the stretch so I went back and looked. From week 8 to week 16 he went...

10.7
17.9
14.5
21.1
DNP
DNP
DNP
10.3

It's fine, but not some great boon down the stretch or anything. Even extending back to week 6 to cherry pick his exact best stretch of games, and moving to PPG to discount the games he missed, he was RB12 in PPG over that stretch.

So we have a 25 year old running back, coming off a season where we can maybe cherry pick a best case scenario to get him as high as RB12, and another muddy season the year prior to that, against the 1.01, one of the highest rated WR prospects in years?

Looks like I'm a seller of JT this offseason, after being a buyer of him during his holdout. I like JT fine enough, but he's getting into that Joe Mixon area from a couple years ago where even if he finally starts producing again, by that point he's getting old enough that his value still declines unless it's CMC type of production. And if he goes a 3rd season in a row without being a top 3-5 overall RB, the bottom will fall out fast.

I understand what you are saying but 25 isn't old. Also selling him in the offseason won't get you what you could get during the season after he puts up a big game. Also why did you leave off the 16pts JT got me in the championship game? He finished off week 18 with 26 pts as well. He may have been injured earlier in the year and that is fair to point out. I understand you don't like him but I feel you are missing a big part of the picture.

He's a top 5 RB that has at least 2 years left in him which is a long time in dynasty if you are a contender. If you sell him this offseason you are likely selling low and missing value. RBs gain value during the season once they start scoring points again. Moreover JT is better than Mixon. Funny thing is I own him too and he's done well from 25 to 27yrs.

If you can buy JT this offseason at a discount (contending team) I 100% recommend it.

Whoops I'm still in the old mindset of week 16 being the championship and week 17 being discounted, haha. Though adding week 17 doesn't change his final ranking at all, still RB12 in PPG during his healthy weeks.

I agree if you can buy JT low then go for it. I did it when he was holding out. But we're talking about the 1.01 pick here. I don't think that's low at all, personally.

I am definitely not a "2 years are all that matter" type dynasty owner so that's part of where we differ. But with the way great rookies come in and are immediate factors now, and the way JT has been just okay even when playing the last couple years, I don't think that it's that much more likely that JT is a great contributor next year or the year after than Harrison. And that's discounting that if Harrison is, his value will be nearly untouchable, which JT will not as a middle aged RB.

 

[Gally]

But with the way great rookies come in and are immediate factors now,

I wonder if this is tainting the view positively for value of incoming rookies. There have been unicorn type performances the last few years with some great rookie classes but they haven't always been from the consensus "best" of the rookie classes. Jefferson wasn't the top guy in his class. Last year JSN was arguably the top guy and didn't make an impact or be an immediate factor.

MHJ should be all that but will he be? Recency bias is saying he is can't miss because of all these recent successes. There is risk he won't be an immediate factor.

 

[Big Nate]

But with the way great rookies come in and are immediate factors now,

I wonder if this is tainting the view positively for value of incoming rookies. There have been unicorn type performances the last few years with some great rookie classes but they haven't always been from the consensus "best" of the rookie classes. Jefferson wasn't the top guy in his class. Last year JSN was arguably the top guy and didn't make an impact or be an immediate factor.

MHJ should be all that but will he be? Recency bias is saying he is can't miss because of all these recent successes. There is risk he won't be an immediate factor.

It is a good point. More and more college players are coming out and ready to produce "earlier". Remember when it used to be 2-3 years for a WR to make a mark. Coaches also don't have 2-3 years any more to be successful so they put high draft picks in a lot sooner than they used to. It is a combo of everything why we see them produce earlier and some is definitely talent.

Having said that, there is no guarantee a rookie will make it big. People are expecting and valuing MHJ as a top 5 dynasty WR already and he hasn't played a snap in the NFL yet. I love the talent and prospect and would like to have some shares but there is still risk.

With Taylor he has hit top 5 RB (at one time he was the dynasty RB1) and he has proven it. He was injured but once he got that behind him he looked good again. A full offseason of conditioning and rehab and I expect him to be very good again next year. The team also signed him to a 4-year deal so he's not going anywhere in the next 2 years.

I think he's going to have a lot of running room with a healthy ARich at QB - a threat to run that the defense has too take into account.

 

[Buckna]

This is essentially JT for 1.01 in a non superflex, right? Is JT really worth the 1.01 at 25 years old, coming off 2 mediocre seasons?

"coming off 2 medicore seasons" - Not true. You can talk injuries etc, but his last 8 games he played in this past season he did very well.

I'm not advocating for one guy over another but if you had JT on your stretch run he helped you out.

I had him in multiple leagues and don't remember him being anything special down the stretch so I went back and looked. From week 8 to week 16 he went...

10.7
17.9
14.5
21.1
DNP
DNP
DNP
10.3

It's fine, but not some great boon down the stretch or anything. Even extending back to week 6 to cherry pick his exact best stretch of games, and moving to PPG to discount the games he missed, he was RB12 in PPG over that stretch.

So we have a 25 year old running back, coming off a season where we can maybe cherry pick a best case scenario to get him as high as RB12, and another muddy season the year prior to that, against the 1.01, one of the highest rated WR prospects in years?

Looks like I'm a seller of JT this offseason, after being a buyer of him during his holdout. I like JT fine enough, but he's getting into that Joe Mixon area from a couple years ago where even if he finally starts producing again, by that point he's getting old enough that his value still declines unless it's CMC type of production. And if he goes a 3rd season in a row without being a top 3-5 overall RB, the bottom will fall out fast.

I understand what you are saying but 25 isn't old. Also selling him in the offseason won't get you what you could get during the season after he puts up a big game. Also why did you leave off the 16pts JT got me in the championship game? He finished off week 18 with 26 pts as well. He may have been injured earlier in the year and that is fair to point out. I understand you don't like him but I feel you are missing a big part of the picture.

He's a top 5 RB that has at least 2 years left in him which is a long time in dynasty if you are a contender. If you sell him this offseason you are likely selling low and missing value. RBs gain value during the season once they start scoring points again. Moreover JT is better than Mixon. Funny thing is I own him too and he's done well from 25 to 27yrs.

If you can buy JT this offseason at a discount (contending team) I 100% recommend it.

Whoops I'm still in the old mindset of week 16 being the championship and week 17 being discounted, haha. Though adding week 17 doesn't change his final ranking at all, still RB12 in PPG during his healthy weeks.

I agree if you can buy JT low then go for it. I did it when he was holding out. But we're talking about the 1.01 pick here. I don't think that's low at all, personally.

I am definitely not a "2 years are all that matter" type dynasty owner so that's part of where we differ. But with the way great rookies come in and are immediate factors now, and the way JT has been just okay even when playing the last couple years, I don't think that it's that much more likely that JT is a great contributor next year or the year after than Harrison. And that's discounting that if Harrison is, his value will be nearly untouchable, which JT will not as a middle aged RB.

Indy barely played JT week 5 & 6 leaning on Moss and easing Taylor back in after the first 4 weeks on the PUP. Throw those 2 games out and Taylor was #4 in PPG on an albeit small sample size of 8 games. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle but he still was putting up numbers when healthy.

 

[Buckna]

Since its startup, i’d roll the dice on MHJr probably but would want to see which options were on the board. Lots of good young WR’s to choose from early in a startup and they are guys that have already played in the NFL. I think in the Shark Pool there was talk of MHJr as a late 1st in startup which seems like rookie fever to me.

In an existing league would entirely depend on my team, RB scarcity is a real thing so if i was competitive and/or solid at WR I’d probably lean JT.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is essentially JT for 1.01 in a non superflex, right? Is JT really worth the 1.01 at 25 years old, coming off 2 mediocre seasons?

"coming off 2 medicore seasons" - Not true. You can talk injuries etc, but his last 8 games he played in this past season he did very well.

I'm not advocating for one guy over another but if you had JT on your stretch run he helped you out.

I had him in multiple leagues and don't remember him being anything special down the stretch so I went back and looked. From week 8 to week 16 he went...

10.7
17.9
14.5
21.1
DNP
DNP
DNP
10.3

It's fine, but not some great boon down the stretch or anything. Even extending back to week 6 to cherry pick his exact best stretch of games, and moving to PPG to discount the games he missed, he was RB12 in PPG over that stretch.

So we have a 25 year old running back, coming off a season where we can maybe cherry pick a best case scenario to get him as high as RB12, and another muddy season the year prior to that, against the 1.01, one of the highest rated WR prospects in years?

Looks like I'm a seller of JT this offseason, after being a buyer of him during his holdout. I like JT fine enough, but he's getting into that Joe Mixon area from a couple years ago where even if he finally starts producing again, by that point he's getting old enough that his value still declines unless it's CMC type of production. And if he goes a 3rd season in a row without being a top 3-5 overall RB, the bottom will fall out fast.

I understand what you are saying but 25 isn't old. Also selling him in the offseason won't get you what you could get during the season after he puts up a big game. Also why did you leave off the 16pts JT got me in the championship game? He finished off week 18 with 26 pts as well. He may have been injured earlier in the year and that is fair to point out. I understand you don't like him but I feel you are missing a big part of the picture.

He's a top 5 RB that has at least 2 years left in him which is a long time in dynasty if you are a contender. If you sell him this offseason you are likely selling low and missing value. RBs gain value during the season once they start scoring points again. Moreover JT is better than Mixon. Funny thing is I own him too and he's done well from 25 to 27yrs.

If you can buy JT this offseason at a discount (contending team) I 100% recommend it.

Whoops I'm still in the old mindset of week 16 being the championship and week 17 being discounted, haha. Though adding week 17 doesn't change his final ranking at all, still RB12 in PPG during his healthy weeks.

I agree if you can buy JT low then go for it. I did it when he was holding out. But we're talking about the 1.01 pick here. I don't think that's low at all, personally.

I am definitely not a "2 years are all that matter" type dynasty owner so that's part of where we differ. But with the way great rookies come in and are immediate factors now, and the way JT has been just okay even when playing the last couple years, I don't think that it's that much more likely that JT is a great contributor next year or the year after than Harrison. And that's discounting that if Harrison is, his value will be nearly untouchable, which JT will not as a middle aged RB.

Indy barely played JT week 5 & 6 leaning on Moss and easing Taylor back in after the first 4 weeks on the PUP. Throw those 2 games out and Taylor was #4 in PPG on an albeit small sample size of 8 games. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle but he still was putting up numbers when healthy.

I already didn't count week 5. That was week's 6-17 that he was RB12. If I take out week 6 I see RB9 for 7-17. Are you looking at non-ppr maybe? That would definitely change the discussion when comparing w/ Harrison. Regardless, he's been pretty okay, but not great. He's helped by the relative lack of good young RBs right now, but he really has to get back to that all-world production he had from 3 years ago to sustain value going forward. I still like him, but not more than 1.01.